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View Full Version : Barack Obama "Obama is planning a concession speech event for November 6th Election Night"




CaptLouAlbano
10-18-2012, 07:34 AM
Interesting perspective

http://hillbuzz.org/daily-doom-antidote-solid-proof-obama-is-planning-a-concession-speech-event-for-november-6th-election-night-10182012-10182012

cajuncocoa
10-18-2012, 07:49 AM
I don't think he'll need it, but I guess he has to be prepared. I'm sure Mitten's has one prepared too.

ShaneEnochs
10-18-2012, 07:56 AM
Every politician up for election always has two speeches written. It's just the way it works.

CaptLouAlbano
10-18-2012, 07:59 AM
Every politician up for election always has two speeches written. It's just the way it works.

Having run for office several times, I am well aware of that. The article was based on the venue choice. The author was (or is) and event planner, and from Chicago - I thought the analysis of the venue choice was pretty interesting.

Working Poor
10-18-2012, 08:04 AM
Personally I think Obama will win. I don't think the repubs want to take the blame for the coming crash...

CaptLouAlbano
10-18-2012, 08:16 AM
Personally I think Obama will win. I don't think the repubs want to take the blame for the coming crash...

Honestly, I don't see Obama winning. I read the details on a few polls last week, and Obama has lost ground in virtually every voting bloc that they identified: women, white men, blacks, evangelicals, union members, redheads, left handed people, guys named Frank...I kid about the last three of course, but you get the point. One article I read did some analysis and stated that if the trending continues in the direction that it is moving, it could be a blood bath on election night. Obama's biggest problem now is going to be getting his supporters to actually go out and vote, which is the reason some are saying states like PA & MI are in play this year even though Obama won those states by sizable margins in 08. Hell, depending on the poll and the MOE, Romney is within a point or two in NJ of all places, which hasn't gone to the Republican since 1988.

Working Poor
10-18-2012, 08:36 AM
It is a big mess and nobody is going to clean it up.

DeMintConservative
10-18-2012, 08:37 AM
There will never be a bloodbath because Obama's coalition of late liberals, under-30 college educated women and minorities gives him a very high floor. And those groups will always vote massively for him. Romney can win whites by Reagan's margins and still lose. If Obama hadn't so much loyalty from minorities he'd be screwed.

CaptLouAlbano
10-18-2012, 08:51 AM
There will never be a bloodbath because Obama's coalition of late liberals, under-30 college educated women and minorities gives him a very high floor. And those groups will always vote massively for him. Romney can win whites by Reagan's margins and still lose. If Obama hadn't so much loyalty from minorities he'd be screwed.

But that is the thing, he is down in all those groups that supported him in 08. I'm trying to find the poll that I read that compared his support in 08 to 12 and it was down in nearly every demographic they polled, even blacks. That's the thing that puts PA into play - if the voter turnout in Philadelphia is soft that is a huge chunk of his support. Philly's black population is somewhere around 700K - if those folks don't show up, he could lose the state. In 08 Obama got 574K votes from Philly alone. If that number is lower then the difference could turn PA from blue to red in a close race (which some polls show it is very close in PA).

I think this should be very interesting to watch on election night.

Aratus
10-18-2012, 09:41 AM
the polls are tight. could go either way, as any votes for gary johnson in battleground states
have him impacting like ralph nader did in FL in 2000! (i keep on thinking its to be 269 v. 269)

supermario21
10-18-2012, 10:06 AM
I can easily see Obama losing Ohio. Youngstown is a very vital area to Democrats, and failed to deliver not only in 2010 (Strickland-Kasich) but ALSO 2008. Yes, Obama won, but he actually underperformed Kerry here in 2004. I don't think Obama can get away with a win in Ohio and continue to underperform in arguable just as big a Democratc stronghold as Cleveland.

Schifference
10-18-2012, 10:13 AM
What I notice is that people don't have the enthusiasm for Obama they had 4 years ago. I hear people say, "I don't think either one is good but I don't like Romney." So now they can use the excuse that they don't like Obama but he is better than Romney.

CaptLouAlbano
10-18-2012, 10:15 AM
What I notice is that people don't have the enthusiasm for Obama they had 4 years ago. I hear people say, "I don't think either one is good but I don't like Romney." So now they can use the excuse that they don't like Obama but he is better than Romney.

I see the same. Though the anti-Obama sentiment is strong. I read (or heard) somewhere, a commentator who stated "show me one person in this country that voted for McCain in '08 that says to themselves, 'that Obama is doing a great job, I'm going to vote for him this time'". That makes sense to me, which tells me that Obama's job is to hold onto the people that voted for him in 08 - and given that polling shows he is losing people in every voting bloc he is going to have a real difficult time. Really, 6 months ago would any of us thought that states like MI, NJ, PA, CT, MN and OR are potentially "in play" and those are all Obama states from 08.