Primary Scenario: The Road to the Republican Nomination

[Just Come Home]

Here's a timeline that I see developing:

December 16th - http://www.teaparty07.com - THE RON PAUL BOSTON TEA PARTY - Ron Paul breaks the single day fundraising record elevating his campaign to a whole new level with a huge press boost that will introduce him for the first time to millions of voters who are just barely waking up to the fact that there is a presidential election upcoming. I could write a book on why this is going to happen, but for this post I'll just say that this is on my timeline and I expect that it will happen. Several questions will emerge from this event, including 1) why aren't the polls reflecting this tremendous level of support, and 2) why aren't the establishment candiates able to generate this kind of support?

January 2 - The Paul campaign announces it's fundraising numbers prior to the Iowa Primary. The total figure either beats or at the very least competes with the establishment candidates. A fresh round of press ensues.

January 3rd - IOWA PRIMARY - Huckabee wins the Iowa Primary. Ron Paul makes a considerably strong showing at 3rd.

January 5th - WYOMING PRIMARY - Nobody knows what to expect out of this primary. There's aboslutely no polling data that I can find on this anywhere. Straw polls have recently fallen out of favor since Ron Paul started dominating them (http://www.usastrawpolls.com/states/Wyoming-Straw-Polls.html), but if the one that the Laramie County GOP set up is any indicator, Ron Paul, Fred Thompson, and Mitt Romney fare the best here. ([url=http://www.usastrawpolls.com/states/Wyoming-Straw-Polls.html) If Ron Paul comes in first here, regardless of the size of the state, the entire electoral dynamic gets thrown for a loop. The media would go crazy. Honestly though, Ron Paul only needs to come in third here to get a boost.

January 8th - NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY - Ron Paul wins New Hampshire, turning the entire race on it's head and sending Giuliani and Romney scrambling, and Fred Thompson just standing there shrugging. The media goes nuts, and Ron Paul becomes a legitimate front runner.

January 10th - Myrtle Beach South Carolina Debate hosted by Fox News - With primary winners already selected, Fox is forced to treat Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee as front runners. The entire field gangs up on Ron Paul in the same way that the Democrats have ganged up on Hillary Clinton. Attention to Ron Paul is at an all time high.


January 15th - The Ron Paul Grass Roots Fundraising Machine puts together another significant fundraising day to commemorate the revolutionary Dr. Martin Luther King. Another round of significant media coverage ensues, and polls start registering a suprising amount of support from African Americans -- more than the Republicans have ever registered in the past.

January 15 -- MICHIGAN PRIMARY -- A very interesting dynamic comes into play in Michigan, as the Democrats have essentially cancelled their primary in Michigan, with only Hillary Clinton on the ballot. The key dynamic: Michigan is an OPEN primary, like New Hampshire. Sensing blood in the water, I predict that the Democrats get out the vote for Ron Paul in Michigan, and propel him to either a victory, or a top three finish.

January 19th - NEVADA PRIMARY - Do I even need to bother with libertarian Nevada where Ron Paul beat Romney (http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/10/14/410525.aspx) in a straw poll where Ron Paul didn't even bother to show up, but Romney did? We're going to win this state going away.

January 19th - SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY - There is no way to tell at this point in time what to expect out of South Carolina. The polls don't show a front runner (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_primary-233.html). The Fred Thompson and Huckabee seem to register well in the straw polls (along with Paul making a respectable showing (http://www.usastrawpolls.com/states/South-Carolina-Straw-Polls.html). I think Ron Paul could place in third here and be ok. In fact, he could lose this one altogether and be ok. If Huckabee wins here, I think Romney, McCain, and Thompson start seeing pressure to drop out (contingent on where they place on the former polls).

January 29th - FLORIDA PRIMARY - Rudy sees his first win.

February 2nd - MAINE PRIMARY - No idea what to expect here... It's a liberal state. I expect Rudy to do well. It's also anti war. Ron Paul could do well here.

February 5th - Super Duper Tuesday -- It's all going to be about turnout.

[Ethek]

Nice walk-thru. It made for some entertaining reading. I do think your analysis is pretty sound. -Go Ron!

[Primbs]

Sounds about right. Expect attack ads against Ron Paul. We have to prepare good comebacks to obvious attack points.

[ross11988]

Inspirational. Yet tense

[Mark Rushmore]

I take it you're looking at Huck then Romney then Paul in Iowa?

[QWE]

Michigan is going to have no primary. It's going to be a convention. No one but delegates vote.

Edit: Democrats didn't have a primary in 2000, and Republicans did. They all voted for McCain. This will NOT happen - if Democrats don't have a primary, neither with Republicans. The Democrats effectively ended any primary vote.

[kotetu]

I've written 120 letters to voters in Iowa. I will probably write 120 more in the next week or so. I want Paul to win there!

So for now, I will make that my postulate:

January 3rd - IOWA PRIMARY - An instant upset, leaving CNN and other media and political pundits gasping that his supporters must have rigged the primary, Ron Paul wins an overwhelming victory in the Iowa primary, with 68 % of the vote. Mike Huckabee comes in a distant second, with 22% of the vote. Chuck Norris round house kicks Mitt Romney in the face (8%), and Rudy Giuliani pees himself on national TV (2%).

[Voice]

some X-lax in the right place at the right time...




I jest, I jest

[Paulite5112007]

I am with you on the ones pre Jan. 10 Debate. I think the debate will seal Ron Pauls win in SC which will cause runaway landslide victories on Super Tuesday.

[Just Come Home]

I forgot to mention that there is a January 30th debate right before Super Duper Tuesday...

[austin356]

I've written 120 letters to voters in Iowa. I will probably write 120 more in the next week or so. I want Paul to win there!

So for now, I will make that my postulate:

January 3rd - IOWA PRIMARY - An instant upset, leaving CNN and other media and political pundits gasping that his supporters must have rigged the primary, Ron Paul wins an overwhelming victory in the Iowa primary, with 68 % of the vote. Mike Huckabee comes in a distant second, with 22% of the vote. Chuck Norris round house kicks Mitt Romney in the face (8%), and Rudy Giuliani pees himself on national TV (2%).



Yea right. And Ron will jump off the top of the Empire State Building, hit the ground, and walk away.

[Just Come Home]

No need to discourage anyone...

[AdamT]

I've written 120 letters to voters in Iowa. I will probably write 120 more in the next week or so. I want Paul to win there!

We've written 100 letters. Anyone know what our combined numbers are thus far? I had heard there were 700,000 names on the list, which is a daunting figure.

[Paulite5112007]

It came from a LA meetup group if i recall correctly. Not sure the numbers, but as long as they are still handing out names we will keep writing them.

[PrimarilyPaul]

Sounds nice except you left off:

Do it right now - REGISTER AS A REPUBLICAN - All these speculations about what the primaries will be like are pointless unless people actually vote in the primary. So check your state's primary, register as a Republican, and vote in the primary. http://www.primarilypaul.com/register/

[CelestialRender]

Interesting appraisal. Very similar to my own. Loved some of the speculative ideas on the states nobody pays attention to.

[Badger Paul]

This is the scenario I foresee as well if all the breaks go our way. The wildcard is Michigan. There's still a chance they may have a primary on Jan. 15 if the legislature approves it in the next two weeks. We'll know more by Dec. 1. I would like to see a primary because the fact it is an open primary and Democrats can vote in it. If RP does well in Michigan he can kill McCain off and embarass Romney.

[Naraku]

Well the Michigan Primary could be saved:


Michigan officials took another stab at getting the courts to save the Jan. 15 presidential primary.

The attorney general's office on Monday filed an appeal with the Michigan Supreme Court, asking it to overturn Friday's decision by an appeals court. In a 2-1 ruling, Judges Patrick Meter and Donald Owens objected that a law recently passed by the Legislature setting up the primary would let the state political parties keep track of voters' names and whether they took Democratic or GOP primary ballots but give no public access to that information.

State election officials want the state Supreme court to rule by Wednesday so they can get absentee ballots out by Dec. 1.

The state is asking the high court to approve the section of the law setting up the Jan. 15 primary and leave for later the question of who should get access to the voting records, according to Matt Frendewey, a spokesman for the attorney general's office.

Source: http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hAWD_zB3_RzCIVVeao207KrMPexAD8T0R80G0

If this happens then Michigan probably will go to Ron Paul, assuming Michigan Paulites go after loose Democrats.

[me3]

Sounds nice except you left off:

Do it right now - REGISTER AS A REPUBLICAN - All these speculations about what the primaries will be like are pointless unless people actually vote in the primary. So check your state's primary, register as a Republican, and vote in the primary. http://www.primarilypaul.com/register/


Interesting appraisal. Very similar to my own. Loved some of the speculative ideas on the states nobody pays attention to.
Great posts by both of you! Turn out the vote!

[Just Come Home]

What more can we do in Wyoming. It would be pretty huge if we could pull off Wyoming AND New Hampshire.

[ross11988]

I am with you on the ones pre Jan. 10 Debate. I think the debate will seal Ron Pauls win in SC which will cause runaway landslide victories on Super Tuesday.

I dunno. Considering that the debate is being hosted by Fox news. They could really try to screw him up.

Are all the dates set? Could New Hampshire move its primary earlier or no? I love the date now. I wish it was before Iowa, but the closer to the holiday the better.

[Naraku]

Open primaries are crucial in this primary for Ron Paul. They make up about 38% of the delegates. Throw in New Hampshire, Nevada and Wyoming and that's about 40%.

Having Huckabee as a major contender could be a blessing, especially if Giuliani picks up a few states on Super Tuesday, since it might make a unified opposition to Paul untenable at the Convention.

[Highstreet]

January 15th - The Ron Paul Grass Roots Fundraising Machine puts together another significant fundraising day to commemorate the revolutionary Dr. Martin Luther King. Another round of significant media coverage ensues, and polls start registering a suprising amount of support from African Americans -- more than the Republicans have ever registered in the past.



I think this is an amazing idea!!!

We need to start the whisper campaign on this right away!!

And whoever is good at Web Design can post the Web site immediately. I think we would cause a rolling blanket win in most primary states and bring out all those who hear about the Grassroots Protector of our Civil Rights!!

[Mark]

What more can we do in Wyoming. It would be pretty huge if we could pull off Wyoming AND New Hampshire.
.

I think the fact that everyone has risen up and answered the challenge
to donate as you can,

while just putting a few dollars away a week, a couple less drinks,
to save enough for Dec 16th, for The Party of Tea,

is just great!

.
What could be more perfect than replenishing the till
as the campaign approved by Ron Paul gets the bill?

.
Maybe that's "what more" we can do in Wyoming and Hew Hampshire.


Spend less save more, donate a bit as it comes in the door.

.

[Taco John]

This would be awesome