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View Full Version : General Ohio Polling: Anomaly or BS?




CaptLouAlbano
10-17-2012, 08:17 AM
We all know that the media loves to talk about Ohio. "No Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio", "All eyes are on Ohio", etc. So today, I did a little reading and investigating. Poll after poll after poll shows Obama is down in key voting demographics - women, white males, youth, Hispanics, evangelicals, union members, and even black voters. Some groups he is down big and some it is just a few points, but across the board he his down in nearly every demographic polled. And this has translated to polling state by state. Obama is down by around 10 points in states that he won big in 08 (CA, NY, etc). He is down from his 08 numbers in virtually every state that matters by 5-12 points (even the ones he is leading in). Hell even Hawaii polling shows his down 13 points over his 08 numbers. And then we have Ohio.

Compared to 08 Obama pretty much hasn't lost a point when you take the MOE into consideration. Just for comparison sake, look at the states that border Ohio and look at his 2012 polling vs his 2008 numbers: PA -5.3; MI -12.0; IN -14.1; WV -8.0. KY for point of reference only has one poll there and it is over a month old, so it is tough to use that for comparison.

So all these states that surround OH, Obama is down - in some of them by pretty big numbers. He is down nationally is virtually all demographics. But yet in Ohio, he is essentially even to his 2008 numbers??

So what is it? Is Ohio surrounded by a invisible bubble that makes it able to be unlike every sizable state in the country, and all of its neighbors? Or could it be that Obama is actually down in Ohio just as he is in every other state, and that the polling companies are fudging the numbers to keep the close race narrative alive? If you noticed, they haven't said much about FL in a while have they? One polling company has already pulled out of there and said that Romney has the state. But if the polling in Ohio is like every where else in the country, then I would say Romney pretty much has this wrapped up - and the media needs to keep the story of a close race alive for a few more weeks so people keep tuning in.

Any thoughts on this, or does anyone have an explanation why Ohio is such an anomaly?

TonySutton
10-17-2012, 08:37 AM
I live in Ohio. Obama and related PACs are spending MILLIONS of dollars here on advertising. Not just on broadcast channels but on cable channels and radio too.

seyferjm
10-17-2012, 09:03 AM
I live in Ohio. Obama and related PACs are spending MILLIONS of dollars here on advertising. Not just on broadcast channels but on cable channels and radio too.

x2

I'm still unsure of who will win here, though. I know many still think Obama will, partially due to early voting and liberal counties organizing better.

CaptLouAlbano
10-17-2012, 11:33 AM
The advertising thing does make sense. However, wouldn't that be the case in the other swing states then? From the ones that are considered "toss ups" on RealClearPolitics here is Obama 08 vs 12:

CO: -9.7
FL: -5.3
IA: -7.2
MI: -12.0
NV: -9.5
NH: -8.8
NC: -5.0
PA: -5.3
VA: -5.5
WI: -11.6

Now the RCP average for OH has him down 2.4 from 2008, but some polls have him actually gaining over 2008 numbers, and from what I can see, that would be the only state in the country where he makes any gains. Now granted his losses in PA, FL and VA aren't as large as the other states, but they still are much greater than the OH numbers, and those three states Obama is trending downward.

It still seems off to me and not representative of what is happening in other states. I could be wrong here, but something tells me that come election night we are going to see Romney win OH by 5 and the media will be scratching their heads since the polling said otherwise.

DeMintConservative
10-17-2012, 11:41 AM
Besides the advertising, Obama also spent more time in Ohio for the last 2 years than in the WH and almost as much as he spent in golf courses. Plus, he has the disgusting auto bailout to tout - even though most Ohio auto-workers work for Ford and Honda. And Ohio's unemployment rate has been declining for 2 years and is now firmly below the national rate.

That said, if Obama's support keeps cratering amongst whites, I don't see how he holds Ohio.

CaptLouAlbano
10-17-2012, 11:52 AM
Besides the advertising, Obama also spent more time in Ohio for the last 2 years than in the WH and almost as much as he spent in golf courses. Plus, he has the disgusting auto bailout to tout - even though most Ohio auto-workers work for Ford and Honda. And Ohio's unemployment rate has been declining for 2 years and is now firmly below the national rate.

That said, if Obama's support keeps cratering amongst whites, I don't see how he holds Ohio.

I was not aware of OH's unemployment rate - thanks for the info. Seems to me that the GOP should be running ads with Kasich showing how it was the state that turned it around and not Obama.

I don't mean to beat the subject to death - but OH just perplexes me in how it is running contrary to every trend we are seeing elsewhere. My gut tells me its a rating ploy to keep it interesting.

DeMintConservative
10-17-2012, 12:00 PM
I agree Ohio is closer than the polling average is suggesting right now (and that FL, NC and VA aren't as close).

FWIW, check Ohio's absentee ballot requests relatively to four years ago:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4O VE#gid=0

supermario21
10-17-2012, 04:00 PM
Obama's problem is despite the advertising here since last spring, he could never bury Romney. Driving around town (and I live near Youngstown, No 1 stronghold for Dems-extremely anti-libertarian as well) and I see lots of pro-Romney signs in areas I never saw them before. I think Romney will end up winning as the momentum continues to be on his side. Plus now his money is going to be coming in at a faster rate than Obama.

DeMintConservative
10-18-2012, 04:14 PM
I agree Ohio is closer than the polling average is suggesting right now (and that FL, NC and VA aren't as close).

FWIW, check Ohio's absentee ballot requests relatively to four years ago:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4O VE#gid=0

Seems like the press is starting to catch up with this:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/18/republicans-point-to-early-vote-gains-in-ohio/

DeMintConservative
10-22-2012, 01:48 PM
Ohio polls that were on the field in the last 7 days:

LFR/POR (R) R+1
Suffolk Tie
AngusReid Tie
PPP (D) O+1
CBS/Quinn. O+5
Gravis Tie
Rasmussem O+1

Except for the CBS/Quinnipiac poll, that seems to be an outlier (and had a D+9 sample, which would mean a more Dem electorate than in 2008) and would still mean Romney improved by 5 points from their last poll, it's basically a tied race.

Cook has now moved Ohio from Lean D to pure toss-up. Also moved VA, FL and NC to lean R.

If Romney can keep his surge in Ohio and seal the deal with those other 3 states, then he's at 266 and only needs 1 out of New Hampshire, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin or Nevada (PA and MI will never fall before one of those).

moostraks
10-23-2012, 07:37 AM
Obama's problem is despite the advertising here since last spring, he could never bury Romney. Driving around town (and I live near Youngstown, No 1 stronghold for Dems-extremely anti-libertarian as well) and I see lots of pro-Romney signs in areas I never saw them before. I think Romney will end up winning as the momentum continues to be on his side. Plus now his money is going to be coming in at a faster rate than Obama.

Hey mario! Am in Warren, myself. As owner of the RP van (as we are known here) don't be too discouraged about libertarians here. I have had a good deal of RP love since we moved here right before the last presidential election, more than I saw in the subarbs of Atlanta by far.

Definately seeing a good deal of the Romney signs mostly outside of the city. They seem larger and angrier than I saw last time. I think that the media has done a good job making a certain segment of the population feel threatened and they are jumping on the not Obama train.