Successful Forecast Model Predicts Easy Romney Win

[anaconda]

I heard a fellow named Dr. Kenneth Bickers from the University of Colorado, Boulder, on the Laura (barf) Ingraham radio show last night. He predicts that, if the election were held today, Romney would win comfortably (but far from a "landslide") with 330 electoral votes. The model has correctly predicted the last 8 presidential elections. I am very conflicted about whether Rand benefits or loses with a Mittens victory. I previously thought we needed an Obama victory for Rand in 2016, but now I see a pathway whereby a Mittens victory in 2012 may actually create a better opportunity for Rand in 2016. Anyway, have a look at this if you have a moment.

http://www.outlookseries.com/A0991/Science/3716_Kenneth_Bickers_CU-Boulder_Election_forecasting_model_Romney_win_Kenn eth_Bickers_CU-Boulder.htm

Update with apology. I see this model was already introduced in a thread started by RonPaulFanInGA on August 23rd. I searched "Laura Ingraham" on the forum before posting but did not think to search "Bickers." Well, at least it may be useful to note that he's still predicting an easy Mittens victory. Mod: feel free to merge.

[torchbearer]

r u ok?

[anaconda]

r u ok?

Did I frighten you?


BTW here's the original thread:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?386996-Bad-news-Barack-Electoral-College-computer-model-shows-big-WIN-for-Romney

[anaconda]

Here's some thoughts on the scenario whereby Rand might challenge a Mittens incumbency in 2016.

http://www.salon.com/2012/05/25/rand_paul%E2%80%99s_leverage_with_mitt/singleton/

[Zippyjuan]

My alma mater. Their latest update (and last from them before the election):
http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university

But it adds:

Their original prediction model was one of 13 published in August in PS: Political Science & Politics, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. The journal has published collections of presidential election models every four years since 1996, but this year the models showed the widest split in outcomes, Berry said. Five predicted an Obama win, five forecast a Romney win, and three rated the 2012 race as a toss-up.
and

The authors also provided caveats. Their model had an average error rate of five states and 28 Electoral College votes. Factors they said may affect their prediction include the timeframe of the economic data used in the study and that states very close to a 50-50 split may fall in an unexpected direction due to factors not included in the model.

“As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict,” they wrote.


Link to the study and others mentioned: http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayJournal?jid=PSC

[BSU kid]

If mittens does win, there is no reason we can't infiltrate the democrats next time around...after all, as Ron has said both parties are essentially the same anyways.

[AngryCanadian]

If mittens does win, their is no reason we can't infiltrate the democrats next time around...after all, as Ron has said both parties are essentially the same anyways.

Thats basically true and the news link is from the daymail , sometimes reliable sometimes not.

[anaconda]

If mittens does win, their is no reason we can't infiltrate the democrats next time around...after all, as Ron has said both parties are essentially the same anyways.

Rand can't switch to Democrat, I don't think. Would be too challenging.