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Todd
10-16-2012, 11:28 AM
Anybody had a look at this yet? It was extremely accurate last go around Predicting Obama 364 to McCAin 174

It was actually 365 to 173. http://electoralmap.net/2012/2008_election.php

Actual Electoral
http://electoralmap.net/2010/2008.png

Intrade 08' 364 to 174
http://electoralmap.net/11.4.png


Currently 290 to 248
http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php

Don't believe the hype. Things not look too good for Romney

Todd
10-18-2012, 01:41 PM
Intrade today

Obama 281 Romney 257


http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php

misean
10-18-2012, 02:54 PM
Anybody had a look at this yet? It was extremely accurate last go around Predicting Obama 364 to McCAin 174

It was actually 365 to 173. http://electoralmap.net/2012/2008_election.php

Actual Electoral
http://electoralmap.net/2010/2008.png

Intrade 08' 364 to 174
http://electoralmap.net/11.4.png


Currently 290 to 248
http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php

Don't believe the hype. Things not look too good for Romney

He's made a huge rebound. I just assumed that the election would be a blowout before the first debate. He was only 15% to win on fivethirtyeight. Now he has a some chance to win. He's still almost a 3:1 underdog on most sportsbooks though.

CaptLouAlbano
10-18-2012, 02:56 PM
Isn't intrade a betting system? If so then the lines would change, just like the do at the racetrack or the sports book as the action moves to one side or the other. So with that in mind was the 365-173 "prediction" at this point before the election or was it right before election day? If it is right before the day then it does not surprise me much, since the betters would be pushing their money based on last minute polling.

Aratus
10-19-2012, 04:58 AM
It is a betting site. There are forums there, and many of the site's regulars expect POTUS's EC totals to be in the 300s
however a few of the regulars think he's going to be getting 290 or 281 Electoral College votes. There are also posters
who are conservatives, and some of them are optimistic about Mitt Romney's chances. Ohio is being focused on as well
as Wisconsin and Iowa. ABC's Nightly News last nite highlighted the three states many InTraders think Mitt has to carry.
North Carolina has two of the regulars knowing that the other is on the opposite side of the bet in a gentlemanly manner.
Speculation onsite has a lore about "whales" inflating or deflating prices in certain markets by their quiet & heavy betting.
Three reporters over the past few months have gone onsite to talk up a story on how & why people at the site do bet in
the manner that they do. Mitt Romney has been the underdog to a two to one ratio, and he had dipped on InTrade to 21%
before he climbed back up to about 40%, although a very solid performance in MONDAY's looming debate could have him
setting off a myriad of second thoughts, counterbetting and "shorting" at the last minute amoung the regulars who post.

Agorism
10-19-2012, 10:55 AM
281 o 257 r

closer now

DeMintConservative
10-20-2012, 11:11 AM
Isn't intrade a betting system? If so then the lines would change, just like the do at the racetrack or the sports book as the action moves to one side or the other. So with that in mind was the 365-173 "prediction" at this point before the election or was it right before election day? If it is right before the day then it does not surprise me much, since the betters would be pushing their money based on last minute polling.

Yeps.

Intrade is mostly a lagging indicator - it just follows what polls are saying, with few and pretty meaningless exceptions (like Romney going up a couple of points during and immediately after the 1st debate. Of course, his standing only started rising once polls showing his improvement began to be published).

So, this is basically a map of polls. The only difference relatively to the RCP no-tossups map is New Hampshire, but it's basically tied in both. Intrade is less insightful than a simple polling average, IMO.

Anyway, what the current map shows is that if the election was today, the winner would be whoever is taking Ohio's 18 EVs - and that right now Obama keeps a very small lead.

Aratus
10-20-2012, 11:56 AM
the forum regulars tend to quote nate silver often

Zap!
10-21-2012, 01:50 PM
Site is bogus because of Utah. They give Romney a 91.5% chance of winning it. Bullshit. He has a 100% chance of winning Utah, the Land of Mormons, and everyone with a brain knows it. Amazingly, it lists Montana as a 97% chance of a Romney victory. While Romney will likely win Montana, it isn't anywhere near the blowout Utah will be.

misean
10-21-2012, 02:53 PM
Site is bogus because of Utah. They give Romney a 91.5% chance of winning it. Bullshit. He has a 100% chance of winning Utah, the Land of Mormons, and everyone with a brain knows it. Amazingly, it lists Montana as a 97% chance of a Romney victory. While Romney will likely win Montana, it isn't anywhere near the blowout Utah will be.

LOL. Look at how many shares have traded for Utah. There aren't even any bidders right now. The total volume is like 20 dollars. Montana has at least a couple thousand dollars of volume over the life of the contract.

Now compare both with the general election. The general election is still pretty illiquid but it does over one hundred thousand dollars a day and has done 10's of millions total. Liquidity is pretty important for markets to work.

69360
10-21-2012, 05:22 PM
I think popular vote will be close within a million, but Obama will win easily in the EC.

CaptLouAlbano
10-22-2012, 05:38 AM
I think popular vote will be close within a million, but Obama will win easily in the EC.

I see the opposite in regards to the EC. As I see it today, Romney will take FL, NC and IN from Obama (he won those in 08). PA and OH are the ones that will tip it to Romney then. Two factors determine how those states go - for OH the four counties that make up the southwestern corner of the state can sway the state in one direction or another (this is the Cincinnati area). Obama won those counties in 08, and I am hearing that Romney is very strong there this year - so I say that OH goes to Romney. The key to PA is the turnout in Philly. In 08 Obama got 574K votes from Philly - he will need to match that because of softening support in other counties in the state. From what I have heard the enthusiasm is not there for Obama this year in Philly like 08 which presents a problem for him. Voter turnout in Philly is driven by the PC's that get out the vote, so if they can't produce those high numbers that they had in 08 Obama will take PA. If that is the case Romney wins the EC and the remaining "toss up" states don't factor into it all.

thoughtomator
10-22-2012, 05:44 AM
The result will be whatever the folks that control the electronic voting machines want it to be. All this speculation is pointless, because how people actually vote will have zero impact on the election.

Todd
10-22-2012, 09:43 AM
http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php

Obama losing ground today.

DeMintConservative
10-22-2012, 01:10 PM
http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php

Obama losing ground today.

It was just New Hampshire moving to Romney's column. Which was exactly the map RCP polling average had a couple of days ago. As I said, Intrade is a lagging indicator.

Todd
10-23-2012, 06:25 AM
Day after debate.


OBAMA 281 ✓

ROMNEY 257

tuggy24g
10-23-2012, 08:40 AM
I see the opposite in regards to the EC. As I see it today, Romney will take FL, NC and IN from Obama (he won those in 08). PA and OH are the ones that will tip it to Romney then. Two factors determine how those states go - for OH the four counties that make up the southwestern corner of the state can sway the state in one direction or another (this is the Cincinnati area). Obama won those counties in 08, and I am hearing that Romney is very strong there this year - so I say that OH goes to Romney. The key to PA is the turnout in Philly. In 08 Obama got 574K votes from Philly - he will need to match that because of softening support in other counties in the state. From what I have heard the enthusiasm is not there for Obama this year in Philly like 08 which presents a problem for him. Voter turnout in Philly is driven by the PC's that get out the vote, so if they can't produce those high numbers that they had in 08 Obama will take PA. If that is the case Romney wins the EC and the remaining "toss up" states don't factor into it all.

I live in Bucks County PA (suburb of Philly) and Romney is huge all over the place here. Down in Philly there are tons of signs down there. More then I would of thought know that Philly is more democrat.

RonPaulFanInGA
10-23-2012, 04:46 PM
http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/

Obama has "collapsed" from 64% to 57%.

Intrade is not a good indicator. It has a reputation from 2008, same as Nate Silver. Oh they got 49 states correct. Big deal. Anyone, anyone, could have gotten 45 correct without a second thought. It's only ever a handful of states that are truly toss-ups.

http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/06/28/can_we_stop_paying_attention_to_intrade_now

Stick with the polls and your own gut feeling. Silver and Intrade are a joke.

matt0611
10-23-2012, 05:07 PM
Most of the polls show Romney within striking distance of an electoral vote victory. Seems like Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia, and Colorado are leaning towards Romney.

Ohio is close. If Romney gets Ohio or a few others (Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa etc) then he could win.

Momentum seems to be in Romneys favor right now but will have to see how the polls move in the next two weeks.

Todd
11-01-2012, 07:06 AM
today.....

ROMNEY 235 OBAMA 303

CaptLouAlbano
11-01-2012, 07:08 AM
today.....

ROMNEY 235 OBAMA 303

Bet the other side, it's the only way to really make any money at it.

Zap!
11-02-2012, 11:15 AM
Obama has his Katrina moment now though. The media is just starting to see how it is here in Staten Island. We hate him and our Mayor.

Todd
11-06-2012, 04:17 PM
ROMNEY 235 OBAMA 303 is the final.

Wait to see.

Todd
11-07-2012, 07:44 PM
bump for accuracy.

AngryCanadian
11-07-2012, 09:20 PM
lol now the site is completely wiped out.