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View Full Version : Strong Support for "Open" Primary in Arizona [Prop 121-Top Two]




Lucille
10-12-2012, 05:44 PM
And idiot Arizonans will get the government they deserve, good and hard.

Strong Support for Open Primary in Arizona
http://ivn.us/openprimaries/2012/10/09/independent-survey-strong-support-for-open-primary-in-arizona/


With early balloting beginning on 11 October, a new independent poll finds the Arizona Top 2, Open Primary initiative likely to pass. No recent, independent polling data has been available apart from those supporting or opposing the initiative that would create a non-partisan top-two open primary.

The survey of 1,065 Arizona residents found 45% are inclined to vote for the open primary initiative and 31% against it, with 9% undecided and 15% not planning to vote. Looking only at likely voters, this gives the measure a 16 point advantage with 10% undecided.

On November 6th, Arizona voters will be deciding whether to change their election system. Under the current semi-closed primary system, partisan voters select Party candidates for the general election ballot. Since 2000, independents are permitted to vote in a party primary if, and only if, the parties allow them and only for one party. Open Elections – Open Government advocates for Proposition 121. Prop 121 would institute a Constitutional amendment, fundamentally changing the primary process in Arizona. All voters would vote on a single slate of candidates and the top two vote-getters would advance to the general election.

The proposed Arizona system is similar to the top two primary system adopted in Washington State and California and in use in Nebraska legislative elections since 1934. Local Arizona advocates for top-two are quick to point out that this is actually a 100 year old local system used to elect all town and municipal councils (save Tucson) and school board members. Proposition 121 merely extends this well-known system to county, legislative, state, and federal elections. Presidential primaries are exempted.

http://goldwaterinstitute.org/blog/will-arizonas-proposition-121-hurt-or-help-political-parties


Proponents of Prop. 121, the “top two” Arizona ballot initiative, contend it will lead to the weakening of the two major political parties. But the opposite is true. In fact, it would strengthen them while killing third parties, all to the detriment of voter choices.

Prop. 121 would create an open primary in which all candidates—Republicans, Democrats, independents, and third parties—would run. Only the top two would go on to the general election, and no other candidates would be permitted to appear on the ballot.

In California, this has led to multiple general elections featuring two candidates from the same political party. To Prop. 121’s backers, this is nirvana: the surviving candidates supposedly would have to appeal to independents and voters from the other party. To us, two candidates from the same party looks like no choice at all.

Nor would this necessarily produce two Republicans in Republican-leaning districts or vice-versa. To the contrary, the more candidates who run in a primary from the same political party, the more they will split their party’s vote—improving the chances that the other party’s candidates will move on to the general election.

This year in Congressional District 9, which has a slight Republican registration edge, there were fewer Democrats than Republicans running in the primary, so that under Prop. 121 the top two candidates moving to the general election would have been two liberal Democrats, Kyrsten Sinema and David Schapira, rather than Sinema and her Republican opponent, Vernon Parker. Which scenario offers a real choice? To ask that question is to answer it.

The only way to prevent a multiplicity of candidates from one party splitting the primary vote is to pressure candidates not to run; and the only entity that can do that is strong political parties. Thus Prop. 121 would lead to stronger political bosses and fewer electoral choices.

As for third parties, this measure’s impact is even clearer: it would make them extinct. Except in the rarest circumstances, neither Greens nor Libertarians—or even Independents—ever would appear on a general election ballot.

Though Prop. 121 calls itself the “Open Elections” initiative, it is anything but. Good thing for its backers there’s not a law requiring truth in political advertising.

Of course, our local statist rag thinks it's awesome.

http://azdailysun.com/news/opinion/editorial/open-primary-system-is-the-game-changer-arizona-sorely-needs/article_8ef65371-e8e3-5323-bd68-25d96068fa69.html

Lucille
10-12-2012, 05:58 PM
I pray this one is more accurate:

http://www.azhighground.com/?p=913

Now I want to ask you about Proposition 121, which will be on the ballot in November. Here is the ballot language:

A “yes” vote shall have the effect of replacing the current party primary election with a “top-two” primary election in which all voters, regardless of party affiliation, vote in a single, combined primary, and the top two vote-getters for each seat advance to the general election ballot. This “top-tow” primary will not apply to the election of the U.S. President or to election in which no party affiliation appears on the ballot.

A “no” vote shall have the effect of keeping the current party primary election in which each recognized political party selects a candidate to appear on the general election ballot.

After hearing this will you vote “yes” to support or “no” to oppose Proposition 121? IF YES/NO: Is that definitely yes/no or probably yes/no

19% Definitely yes
17% Probably yes
37% Total yes
10% Don’t know
53% Total no
15% Probably no
38% Definitely no

The “top-two” initiative may have some compelling arguments, but it appears that voters aren’t hearing them. When voters are confused or do not have enough information, they typically vote no. With the no vote at 53%, it may be difficult for the initiative to recover.

Lucille
10-12-2012, 06:12 PM
http://tucsoncitizen.com/hispanic-politico/2012/10/01/say-yes-to-prop-121-leading-in-the-polls-say-yes-to-independent-candidate-mike-stauffer-for-sheriff-who-supports-prop-121/


Subject: Prop 121 leading in poll
From: “Open Government – All Voters, All Elections”
Internal polling for the Open Elections Open Government Campaign shows that Prop 121 is leading 55% to 30% after ballot language and pro and con arguments are read to a 600 statewide sample of likely November voters.

The scientific study was commissioned by RIESTER Public Affairs and conducted by Arizona-based Behavior Research Center (best known for the Rocky Mountain Poll). The results were based on 600 in-depth interviews and was weighted to reflect age, party registration and geographical spread in the state.

The study was conducted between September 11 and 16, 2012. The survey had a 4.1% margin of error.

Joe Yuhas, Campaign Consultant for Prop 121 states, “The survey is very positive for the campaign and shows that when voters are given the ballot language and hear arguments both for and against this significant election reform they respond positively. We look forward to a vigorous final five weeks of the campaign and a victory on election night.”

Lucille
10-12-2012, 06:19 PM
Oct. 4-11, 2011 Morrison Institute for Public Policy (favor) 58% (oppose) 33% (undecided) 9% (# polled) 600
http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Arizona_%22Open_Government_Act%22_Initiative,_Prop osition_121_(2012)#Polls

Keith and stuff
10-12-2012, 06:46 PM
What will John F Kennedy III do if this passes? It sucks for the people of CA and WA. It would be bad for the people of AZ if it spread.

Lucille
10-19-2012, 05:57 PM
Arizona Proposition Would Install California-Style Top-Two Election System
http://reason.com/blog/2012/10/19/arizona-proposition-would-install-califo


http://media.reason.com/mc/ekrayewski/2012_10/ballot.jpg?h=212&w=300

As noted on Reason 24/7 yesterday, third parties in Arizona are worried about Proposition 121, the “Open Elections/Open Government Act,” which would create a single primary for all candidates with the top two advancing to November. And then you have to pick between Kodos and Kang. The Tucson Sentinel reports the backers of the proposition say the system would encourage more “moderate” candidates. The proposition makes uniform the petition requirement for ballot access, lowering it for independent candidates while raising it for third parties.

California passed a similar proposition in 2010, after previously instituting an “open primary” system that forced the top two vote getters of the major parties on an open ballot to be the party’s candidates for the general election. The Supreme Court struck the system down in 2000, and California’s response was to strip the parties out all together in a “blanket” primary. A study by the Public Policy Institute of California, however, found the situation bleak for third party and independent candidates under the new system, which came into effect this year; only eight made it to November ballot and the three third party candidates were all write-ins with no other competition but the incumbent. The blanket primary also created competitive intraparty races in otherwise quiet districts. Such a race almost led to a fight in a debate last week.

Good thing your vote doesn’t count.

Third Parties Say “Top Two” System Could Spell Their End
http://reason.com/24-7/2012/10/18/third-parties-say-top-two-system-could-s


It’s already an uphill battle for Libertarian and Green party candidates in Arizona, but no matter what they have a place on the ballot.

However, leaders of both parties say Proposition 121 threatens to butt them out of elections for good.

“Third parties will be completely gone,” said Warren Severin, chairman of Arizona’s Libertarian Party.

Proposition 121, the Open Elections/Open Government Act, would replace the current partisan primary system with a single primary that advances the top vote-getters regardless of party.

Lucille
10-24-2012, 01:22 PM
Third Party Debate candidates on Top Two:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5EcaX12h46k#t=1h09m27s

Kregisen
10-25-2012, 02:14 AM
Scary....please help spread the word to vote no on this.

Icymudpuppy
10-25-2012, 07:39 AM
I think it gives independent candidates a better chance here in my area in WA.

In areas which are heavy to one major party, it gives an independent the opportunity to provide the opposition to the major party. It does make it harder for that independent to get past the primaries in most areas, but if they do get past the primaries, they have a MUCH BETTER chance in the general.

Lucille
10-25-2012, 11:11 AM
Paul Johnson, the creator of this nightmare, makes an appearance defending his duopoly protection initiative:

http://www.ballot-access.org/2012/07/04/arizona-top-two-open-primary-initiative-to-be-submitted-on-july-5/

Electing more "centrists," is what they're after. What does that even mean? To him and the other proponents, it means electing people who agree on increasing taxes, spending more money for more bureaucracy, and increasing govt control over all of our lives.

Independents can already vote in AZ primaries. This is a $cam. It's not as if passing this will get the press to report on the independents, which is at least as big a problem as ballot access. They'll still only report on the big money candidates, the duopoly will increase their stranglehold, and third parties in AZ will be crushed.

Oh well. Once it's proven to be the epic failure that it is, I suppose it can be taken back to the voters.

Keith and stuff
10-25-2012, 11:34 AM
Third Party Debate candidates on Top Two:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5EcaX12h46k#t=1h09m27s

It was nice to see the candidates opposed to this issue. I'm at a lose to think of a so called political reform that is actually happening that is worse than this one. Any state with a law like this is poisoned.

Lucille
10-26-2012, 03:24 PM
http://www.westernfreepress.com/2012/10/26/prop-121-pushing-up-daisies/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=prop-121-pushing-up-daisies



OCTOBER 26 2012

Prop 121 would create a top two primary system that would eliminate partisan primaries in favor of so-called “open elections.” Numerous arguments have been made by citizens of nearly every political viewpoint as to why the change advocated for by the Open Government Committee is a bad idea.

The biggest reason Prop 121 has struggled to obtain popular support is that it would leave many voters with no candidate representing their opinions in the general election. A lot of districts at the legislative or Congressional level are drawn in such a way that voters would end up choosing between two candidates with the same ideas in the general election. The open election format would also likely draw numerous sham candidates for each position as political parties attempt to use the new system to seek an edge. Voters would be left attempting to sort through heaps of campaign materials to determine the most strategic way to cast their ballot instead of simply choosing the candidate they like the most.

Both major parties are opposed to the initiative, as are third parties who will have little chance of being able to field general election candidates should the proposed system come into effect. Many Republicans, Democrats, Libertarians, Greens, and members of other parties believe that eliminating partisan primaries strips the organizations of their right to select their own candidate to represent them on the ballot. Some even go so far as to say that Prop 121 potentially violates the First Amendment.

Only 37% of Arizona voters said they would vote in favor of open primaries in the latest Rasmussen survey.

I hope and pray that's true. But that's not all! I'll be writing a letter to the editor this weekend. Anyone outside of AZ, please keep good thoughts that Arizonans don't fall for this Orwellian nightmare.

Lucille
11-07-2012, 01:03 AM
It failed! By a wide margin.

Thank God.