Looks Like We Can Add WV, ID, IL and MT to States Where it's Worth it to Write in Ron Paul

[James_Madison_Lives]

http://www.dailypaul.com/258475/looks-like-we-can-add-wv-id-il-and-mt-to-states-where-its-worth-it-to-write-in-ron-paul-2008-analysis

Total states to DEFINITELY WORTH IT TO WRITE-IN RON PAUL: CA, WI, VT, NH, PA, RI, AL, IA, MO, ME, WV, ID, MT, IL.

Others pending outcome of Richard Gilbert lawsuit. (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?389821-Richard-Gilbert-Plaintiffs-Wanted-So-We-Can-Write-In-Ron-Paul-in-All-50-States!)

Looks like we can add WV, ID, IL and MT to write-in states where it is worth it to write-in Ron Paul. Analysis of 2008 presidential write-in votes reported out by FEC:

http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2008/2008pres.pdf

WV, ID, and MT all counted votes for "Santa Claus," who obviously did not file a declaration. IL seems to just count all it's write-ins even though by state law it doesn't have to.

States officially reporting out write-in votes were: CA, WI, VT, NH, PA, RI.

AL and Iowa count them and are required to report them by name, but didn't in 2008. That means we would win in a state court fight to count the write-ins by name.

In Maine and Missouri Ron Paul is also an official write-in candidate, was not in 2008 (due to Gilbert settlement in MO and Maine filing by Paul supporters.)

TAKE-AWAY: Ron Paul write-in votes will be counted, or can be forced to be, in FOUR MORE STATES THAN WE THOUGHT PREVIOUSLY: WV, ID, MT, IL.

Total states to DEFINITELY WORTH IT TO WRITE-IN RON PAUL: CA, WI, VT, NH, PA, RI, AL, IA, MO, ME, WV, ID, MT, IL.

That's 157 ELECTORAL VOTE IMPACTED OUT OF 270 NEEDED TO WIN. This will force attention to the Ron Paul message. They are in for a big surprise.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=olxcIZc4nvE#!

[J_White]

thanks for this info !
not much point in writing him in, unless it is counted.
in other states, probably voting for someone else would be better.

[sailingaway]

thanks for this info !
not much point in writing him in, unless it is counted.
in other states, probably voting for someone else would be better.

Even if it weren't counted in my state I would write him in, since 'none of the above', which is counted as 'undervote' so long as you vote for SOMETHING on the ballot, is the second most accurate message I can send, rejection of the choices on the ballot. But it depends on the message you want to send, I guess.

[gorgonzola]

I picked up my balloting material yesterday (Maine). I called the secretary of state (elections division) to make sure my write in is correctly spelled out. She assured me "Ron Paul" would suffice. It does not have to be; Paul, Ronald E.

She also said the vote will be counted by name, not "other".

[sailingaway]

I picked up my balloting material yesterday (Maine). I called the secretary of state (elections division) to make sure my write in is correctly spelled out. She assured me "Ron Paul" would suffice. It does not have to be; Paul, Ronald E.

She also said the vote will be counted by name, not "other".

Excellent!

[Smart3]

Actually Santa Claus is a real guy, and perennial candidate.

[Crystallas]

They wont be counted in IL. Because somewhere, a County Elections Clerk decided to actually post the 1 vote, doesn't mean they are counted for an undeclared candidate.

We are supposed to be anti-media spin, but this thread is spin of it's own, as long as you keep IL in the title.

[sailingaway]

If you leave it blank or vote for someone not on the ballot it is counted in the general 'undervote' none of the above category. I don't know about this particular situation. Maybe the OP can comment on it?

[gorgonzola]

Only to digress a bit. Happy Thanksgiving!

I think that should be a bit more perennial!

Unfortunately, it's Halloween that the Wally world is targeting.

sad days indeed!

And the beat goes on....

[NoOneButPaul]

They wont be counted in IL. Because somewhere, a County Elections Clerk decided to actually post the 1 vote, doesn't mean they are counted for an undeclared candidate.

We are supposed to be anti-media spin, but this thread is spin of it's own, as long as you keep IL in the title.

Can you explain this a little more because as someone who lives in Illinois i'm really conflicted on what to do.

I've assumed from the beginning that my write in vote would be thrown away and because I don't really care anyway I was just going to walk in and write Ron Paul's name in with a Sharpie over the ballot. As time has gone on though i've considered more and more to vote for Johnson because they will actually count it.

I'm conflicted on whether or not I should waste the vote with the person I know is the right man for the job or have my vote counted just to send a message I don't even think should be sent (The LP is not the place for us).

If you're telling me my write in vote would be counted for Ron then there's no question i'll do it... can you clear this up for me?

[Crystallas]

Can you explain this a little more because as someone who lives in Illinois i'm really conflicted on what to do.

I've assumed from the beginning that my write in vote would be thrown away and because I don't really care anyway I was just going to walk in and write Ron Paul's name in with a Sharpie over the ballot. As time has gone on though i've considered more and more to vote for Johnson because they will actually count it.

I'm conflicted on whether or not I should waste the vote with the person I know is the right man for the job or have my vote counted just to send a message I don't even think should be sent (The LP is not the place for us).

If you're telling me my write in vote would be counted for Ron then there's no question i'll do it... can you clear this up for me?

I'm in the same boat as you. But I have some first hand experience with the process because I'm an election judge. I can't tell you who to vote for, but I can tell you that in IL, undeclared aren't counted(sadly, Dr. Paul will not be counted in IL). The one vote in the records is not because Ron only received one vote, but because somewhere a single county clerk reported that vote(either on purpose, or as an error), and it was never challenged because of how insignificant it was. If it were to be challenged, then that one vote would have been removed from the count.

If anything, as advice, don't let the whole ballot go to waste. You have other local elections that need your attention as well. Whether you want to vote strategically or with some protest is up to you. I'm personally holding my nose and voting for GJ, strictly because of the stupid write-in rules and procedures in this state. But that is my personal decision.

[John F Kennedy III]

Hopefully we will be able to write him in here in Arizona.

Is Vermin Supreme still in the race?

[WesSeid]

If the Libertarian Party gets a high enough percentage of the vote, it will qualify for a lot more funding and become more popular. This would help bring about the downfall of the two-party system.

A high percentage of votes for Ron Paul gets... what?

[sailingaway]

The same thing applies to the Green party getting funding and popularity, but since it isn't my candidate, I'm not voting for her, either. I'm writing in Ron Paul.

And I want his influence as high as possible after he leaves office, because I want him to continue to be the standard bearer. I don't want the standard watered down.

And why are we pushing government spending as a reason to vote?

[sailingaway]

I'm in the same boat as you. But I have some first hand experience with the process because I'm an election judge. I can't tell you who to vote for, but I can tell you that in IL, undeclared aren't counted(sadly, Dr. Paul will not be counted in IL). The one vote in the records is not because Ron only received one vote, but because somewhere a single county clerk reported that vote(either on purpose, or as an error), and it was never challenged because of how insignificant it was. If it were to be challenged, then that one vote would have been removed from the count.

If anything, as advice, don't let the whole ballot go to waste. You have other local elections that need your attention as well. Whether you want to vote strategically or with some protest is up to you. I'm personally holding my nose and voting for GJ, strictly because of the stupid write-in rules and procedures in this state. But that is my personal decision.

but in ALL states, not just those above, voting, but failing to vote for a named/certified candidate creates an 'undervote' notation, and the undervotes are tallied. It isn't by individual you write in, but it is a 'none of the above' vote, imho.

[CPUd]

If the Libertarian Party gets a high enough percentage of the vote, it will qualify for a lot more funding and become more popular. This would help bring about the downfall of the two-party system.

A high percentage of votes for Ron Paul gets... what?

This assumes they will report the actual numbers without shaving/disqualifying ballots. There was a very curious trend during the primaries, in states where RP had to get a certain threshold (anywhere between 10-20%) to get any bound delegates from that state, but generally they reported his numbers just short of the mark.

[Crystallas]

but in ALL states, not just those above, voting, but failing to vote for a named/certified candidate creates an 'undervote' notation, and the undervotes are tallied. It isn't by individual you write in, but it is a 'none of the above' vote, imho.

IL doesn't count the votes. That means there is no "none of the above", and it is not even counted as anything, just scrapped. I'm not going to begin speaking about states that I know nothing about, just my own. If some clerks want to count them out of curiosity and report those totals, I guess they could, but they wouldn't be official in any ways(other that some wikipedia citation using an unofficial source), and in their own best interest, doing so would be a quick way to get put under the microscope.

[randomname]

The fact that writeins for all candidates were counted in 2008 doesnt mean they will be in 2012. Dont underestimate peoples hatred of Ron Paul, i wouldnt put it past them not to publish the writeins anymore, just because Ron Paul got a sizeable number.

[CPUd]

IL doesn't count the votes. That means there is no "none of the above", and it is not even counted as anything, just scrapped. I'm not going to begin speaking about states that I know nothing about, just my own. If some clerks want to count them out of curiosity and report those totals, I guess they could, but they wouldn't be official in any ways(other that some wikipedia citation using an unofficial source), and in their own best interest, doing so would be a quick way to get put under the microscope.

Are you saying if someone votes in local races, but doesn't vote for anyone for President, they toss the whole ballot?

[NoOneButPaul]

If the Libertarian Party gets a high enough percentage of the vote, it will qualify for a lot more funding and become more popular. This would help bring about the downfall of the two-party system.

A high percentage of votes for Ron Paul gets... what?

Success of the LP is good because.....?

Even if the LP did what you think they could (they can't, they aren't even the largest 3rd party in Nevada, the LP is a joke) but even if they did what you want them to what would that accomplish? It would split conservatives all across the nation and give the Democratic-Socialists all the power from here until the end.

Take the LP's success to it's logical conclusion... it's terrible for conservatism everywhere.

The best way to break the 2-party system is to take one of the parties over and then banish all parties forever. 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th parties are only going to give us more of the same on a smaller level.

Ron Paul learned his lessons when it came to the LP already...

[CPUd]

I like the idea of a 0-Party system. Only real issue is that 5 candidates could each take 20%, and there would have to be runoffs. But I'd like to see at least 67% or possibly 85% requirement to get elected. Voters would have to be comfortable with going to the polls once a month.

[gorgonzola]

They are paying hell already, but there will be real hell to pay if the write in votes in Maine are not counted correctly!

The Maine GOP is nuts.

[Crystallas]

Are you saying if someone votes in local races, but doesn't vote for anyone for President, they toss the whole ballot?

Here the entry alone is simply not counted. Much like the other way around(when someone only votes for the President, but leaves the rest of the ballot blank).

[sailingaway]

Here the entry alone is simply not counted. Much like the other way around(when someone only votes for the President, but leaves the rest of the ballot blank).

I looked up your statute and it said it has to be counted, but it is counted as 'undervote' for that office. However, it is counted as a category that equals 'none of the above'. If it is large we can spread it, ourselves, but it is counted, just in with other 'undervotes'. I looked it up when someone else said that.

[Tudo]

We're not "allowed" in Florida?

[sailingaway]

We're not "allowed" in Florida?

If you write it in, it will go into the general 'undervote' account unless they feel like counting them in your county. In some counties they DID count them in 2008 in Florida, but they didn't have to. However, there is a count of the 'undervote' which is a 'none of the official choices' vote, and for me that is second best to getting my vote for Ron counted, because 'none of the above' is the next best statement to me, showing illegitimacy and rejection, imho.

But people feel differently about it.

[Crystallas]

I looked up your statute and it said it has to be counted, but it is counted as 'undervote' for that office. However, it is counted as a category that equals 'none of the above'. If it is large we can spread it, ourselves, but it is counted, just in with other 'undervotes'. I looked it up when someone else said that.

Sorry, but as I said before, they aren't counted. At least how you expect them to be counted. But hey, if you want to suddenly and selectively trust the government for things that might sound favorable to you, then by all means.

Let me ask you this, if IL gets 10,000 undervotes. Do you automatically assume they are Ron Paul votes? They can't be write ins with bad spellings(which happens OFTEN), or people who get called away from the poll to get to an emergency of sorts, people who are sick of waiting in line and had to leave to go to the bathroom... seriously, the amount of scenarios that you see at the polls from people who simply aren't prepared or forced to vote(to get a sticker as proof) are a HUGE factor in the "undervotes". It is objectively impossible to take the number of undervotes and assume they are protest/RP whatever votes.

It wouldn't matter anyways, if each polling place has around 5-6 election judges, and they want to get out(after serving a 14+ hour day), those undervotes, regardless of the rule, get ignored. They are the election judges, ie: it's now who votes, its who counts the votes, ect. That is very true. At least being an officially declared candidate in IL, the candidate has SOME authority to challenge. But even that much, doesn't guarantee their wish will be honored. But hey, here is me holding a target to my head, shoot the messenger.

[sailingaway]

Sorry, but as I said before, they aren't counted. At least how you expect them to be counted. But hey, if you want to suddenly and selectively trust the government for things that might sound favorable to you, then by all means.

If you are saying that despite the statute they won't count them anyhow, that could go to counting votes for people ON the ballot as well, if you are suggesting they willl just break the law.


Let me ask you this, if IL gets 10,000 undervotes. Do you automatically assume they are Ron Paul votes? They can't be write ins with bad spellings(which happens OFTEN), or people who get called away from the poll to get to an emergency of sorts, people who are sick of waiting in line and had to leave to go to the bathroom... seriously, the amount of scenarios that you see at the polls from people who simply aren't prepared or forced to vote(to get a sticker as proof) are a HUGE factor in the "undervotes". It is objectively impossible to take the number of undervotes and assume they are protest/RP whatever votes.

LOL! People go to the ballot then leave half way through voting? I've never seen that, but I suppose in a medical emergency it could happen. As to being lumped in with the other, that is true. If being NONE OF THE ABOVE better says what you think than being pegged specifically as a vote for someone who ISN'T Ron Paul, you would want that option. If being pegged for a different candidate who is on the ballot says more of what you want to say that is fine, but that isn't going to be assumed to all be Ron Paul votes either.


It wouldn't matter anyways, if each polling place has around 5-6 election judges, and they want to get out(after serving a 14+ hour day), those undervotes, regardless of the rule, get ignored. They are the election judges, ie: it's now who votes, its who counts the votes, ect. That is very true. At least being an officially declared candidate in IL, the candidate has SOME authority to challenge. But even that much, doesn't guarantee their wish will be honored. But hey, here is me holding a target to my head, shoot the messenger.

If they are going to ignore what is by law required to be counted, I don't see what assurance you have that they are counting anything.

[BestVirginia]

That may be so, but I'm going third party this year. As Paul should have.

[sailingaway]

That may be so, but I'm going third party this year. As Paul should have.

I wish he had as well. But he is still the one I want to vote for. However, we aren't all going to vote together in the general.

[svf]

LOL! People go to the ballot then leave half way through voting? I've never seen that, but I suppose in a medical emergency it could happen.

Far more common situation is people vote for the "top of the ballot" races and ignore all the local, judges, district, etc. stuff. Also lots of people (myself included) simply don't vote if there is only one candidate running for a given office.

For example, in my Illinois district there were 51,205 total votes cast in 2008, however only 39,727 votes were cast for the (unopposed) State Representative office.

Due to these kinds of situations, "undervotes" are far more likely to happen in races other than President.

[CPUd]

Sorry, but as I said before, they aren't counted. At least how you expect them to be counted. But hey, if you want to suddenly and selectively trust the government for things that might sound favorable to you, then by all means.

Let me ask you this, if IL gets 10,000 undervotes. Do you automatically assume they are Ron Paul votes? They can't be write ins with bad spellings(which happens OFTEN), or people who get called away from the poll to get to an emergency of sorts, people who are sick of waiting in line and had to leave to go to the bathroom... seriously, the amount of scenarios that you see at the polls from people who simply aren't prepared or forced to vote(to get a sticker as proof) are a HUGE factor in the "undervotes". It is objectively impossible to take the number of undervotes and assume they are protest/RP whatever votes.

It wouldn't matter anyways, if each polling place has around 5-6 election judges, and they want to get out(after serving a 14+ hour day), those undervotes, regardless of the rule, get ignored. They are the election judges, ie: it's now who votes, its who counts the votes, ect. That is very true. At least being an officially declared candidate in IL, the candidate has SOME authority to challenge. But even that much, doesn't guarantee their wish will be honored. But hey, here is me holding a target to my head, shoot the messenger.


For those who are going to leave the Pres. line blank - the "expectations" are not nearly as high as you are thinking. It's pretty clear they are not going to mention anything about it in the election day coverage. No one is expecting them to. But the numbers are public record. They will report everyone who cast a ballot, even if it is just a 1-line vote in a race for state rep. We can add up all these up for each precinct, and we can call this number X.

They will report the numbers for each Presidential candidate, per precinct. We can add all these numbers up, and we can call this Y.

We assume X > Y, and we take the difference between X and Y, and we call this number Z. We can then get the ratio Z/X, which is our number of interest.

Observe that we can do similar for previous elections. So, if Z_2000 / X_2000 = 0.03, and Z_2004 / X_2004 = 0.027, and Z_2008 / X_2008 = 0.033, then if Z_2012 / X_2012 = 0.174, it is clear that something anomalous has happened.

Again, it doesn't matter that people are going to have to go to their county election boards to get these numbers, in fact, it is expected that this will have to be done. The message is not directed at the public, it is directed to our "minders" - to find a new game, because people are done voting for their bogus candidates.

[sailingaway]

Far more common situation is people vote for the "top of the ballot" races and ignore all the local, judges, district, etc. stuff. Also lots of people (myself included) simply don't vote if there is only one candidate running for a given office.

For example, in my Illinois district there were 51,205 total votes cast in 2008, however only 39,727 votes were cast for the (unopposed) State Representative office.

Due to these kinds of situations, "undervotes" are far more likely to happen in races other than President.

sure, which is why a big undervote for President would be interesting, if we spread it, after the fact.

[moostraks]

The message is not directed at the public, it is directed to our "minders" - to find a new game, because people are done voting for their bogus candidates.:) well said!

[Tinnuhana]

Didn't know where to post this, but the word needs to get out. We've all seen the articles, mainly in Tea Party and GOP circles, saying that military personnel are being disenfranchised. I bet this is part of what's happening, since it almost happened to me today. I filled in my absentee ballot and went to the on base voting assistance office for the envelopes. The person working there insisted in writing in the COUNTY affice and address instead of the city clerk address for my home of record. Also, the envelope, for return address, asked for my APO address.
According to the clerk in my home of record, I had to have my NH street address and my ward in town as the return address, and mail it to the town. I wonder how many military personnel, etc. are getting their votes lost because they're following the directions of untrained people staffing the voter assistance desks?

[sailingaway]

Didn't know where to post this, but the word needs to get out. We've all seen the articles, mainly in Tea Party and GOP circles, saying that military personnel are being disenfranchised. I bet this is part of what's happening, since it almost happened to me today. I filled in my absentee ballot and went to the on base voting assistance office for the envelopes. The person working there insisted in writing in the COUNTY affice and address instead of the city clerk address for my home of record. Also, the envelope, for return address, asked for my APO address.
According to the clerk in my home of record, I had to have my NH street address and my ward in town as the return address, and mail it to the town. I wonder how many military personnel, etc. are getting their votes lost because they're following the directions of untrained people staffing the voter assistance desks?

I don't know, and I have been seeing stuff on that. Do you want to start a thread to collect info on that?

[Tinnuhana]

I can give it a shot. But it's Saturday here so the voting assistance office won't be open till Monday. I did talk with the office clerk at Nashua City Hall (NH) and she thought that the people helping out are poorly trained. They are military enlisted for the most part and really think they are helping everybody vote. Sort of sad. I can put in an ICE comment card and see what happens with that.
Part of it may be different with the state. The "official" absentee envelope asks for the APO/FPO address, so that may be one error, depending on state methods. The people working there look up the address in a book. This is where the other error occurs. I have a friend at church who works at AFN, so maybe we can get it on air. Problem is a lot of people have already sent theirs in.

[paulbot24]

I apologize if this is listed somewhere else here in grassroots but how can I find out if Arizona is counting write-ins? Me and my wife just received our ballots and want to make sure......Thank you in advance.

[paulbot24]

Fine. Fair enough. I'm being lazy. I'll look it up and find out.:D