New Poll: Romney tanks in Ohio (-9%)

[Agorism]

PRESIDENT – OHIO (Columbus Dispatch)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 51%
Mitt Romney (R) 42%



The Columbus Dispatch released a poll this morning showing Barack Obama with a 9% lead Ohio.
September 19-29 among 1662 likely voters.

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/09/30/1-dispatch-poll-shows-obama-in-lead.html


http://shark-tank.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/romney.jpg


http://cdn.crooksandliars.com/files/uploads/2008/08/hnc-morris-iraq-biden-082208.jpg

[Brett85]

The poll over samples Democrats by 9%, which means the race is tied in Ohio.

[juleswin]

The poll over samples Democrats by 9%, which means the race is tied in Ohio.

Care to show us any proof? or should we just take your word for it? If anything, just the release of these polls is enough to make it a reality. For a man who is unfair and cheated us in the primaries, I am ok with karma getting even with him.

Lets hope he loses every state in the union.

[Agorism]

The poll over samples Democrats by 9%, which means the race is tied in Ohio.

uhhh...did you see that Rasmussen changed his Swing-State to a D+7 model to bring him in line with the other pollsters as of this morning.

He was the hold out. Obama is winning big time.

I heard Chris Wallace was drilling Paul Ryan this morning on how Romney-Ryan was losing the race.

Perhaps he's not down 9%, but he's losing. Also the race will probably tighten closer to the election, but again, Romney is losing.

[invisible]

Remember all those polls that came out, showing that Ron Paul performed equal or better than romney against obomba in a general election? I remember hearing something about the oversampling of democrats and independents in those polls, too. Doesn't that make the poll more accurate, given the percentage makeup of the general electorate? Funny that no one's been talking about those polls as of late.

Sorry, mitt. Sorry, RNC. Sorry, cheaters at the state level. We tried our best to warn you. We knew that you needed us to win in the general election. You knew that you needed us to win in the general election. By telling me my vote doesn't matter, my ideas don't matter, the delegates representing my vote don't matter, and that I'm not a Republican, YOU wanted to lose the general election. And now you have the nerve to ask for my vote? Now you're telling me that you really need my vote, that it suddenly matters after all? Sorry, chumps - the joke's on you! You played it on yourself. For the second election in a row, we tried to explain what was necessary for Republicans to win. Now that an obomba landslide is becoming apparent, is the lesson starting to sink in yet? Do you want to lie and cheat your way to throwing the election in 2016 as well? Or do you actually want to win next time?

[Bastiat's The Law]

Couldn't happen to a better guy!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJJKW7ea1oc

[Brett85]

Care to show us any proof? or should we just take your word for it? If anything, just the release of these polls is enough to make it a reality. For a man who is unfair and cheated us in the primaries, I am ok with karma getting even with him.

Lets hope he loses every state in the union.

Most of these polls have Democratic turnout in Ohio higher than it even was in 2008, and 2008 was a record year for turnout among Democrats. You simply don't see the level of enthusiasm among Democrats this year that you saw in 2008. Also, the polls don't match up with what we're seeing in terms of the absentee ballot requests among Republicans and Democrats in Ohio, which show that Republican absentee ballot requests in Ohio are much higher than in 2008.

[Brett85]

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2012/09/what-to-make-of-declining-democratic-registration.php

[erowe1]

I heard Chris Wallace was drilling Paul Ryan this morning

You mean "grilling," I hope.

[RickyJ]

I could have done without seeing the toe sucker today. Romney is tanking everywhere!

[opal]

*Snip*
Also, the polls don't match up with what we're seeing in terms of the absentee ballot requests among Republicans and Democrats in Ohio, which show that Republican absentee ballot requests in Ohio are much higher than in 2008.

Absentee ballots requested by republicans don't necessarily point toward a mittens vote. I've got my request in for one and have no intention of voting for the mittens

[Brett85]

Absentee ballots requested by republicans don't necessarily point toward a mittens vote. I've got my request in for one and have no intention of voting for the mittens

The polls show Romney winning about 95% of the Republican vote and Obama winning 95% of the Democratic vote.

[ctiger2]

Obamney will prob win this thing by 10+. Luckily for us, it doesn't really matter who wins. It's Obamney or Obamney, so who cares.

[devil21]

Most of these polls have Democratic turnout in Ohio higher than it even was in 2008, and 2008 was a record year for turnout among Democrats. You simply don't see the level of enthusiasm among Democrats this year that you saw in 2008. Also, the polls don't match up with what we're seeing in terms of the absentee ballot requests among Republicans and Democrats in Ohio, which show that Republican absentee ballot requests in Ohio are much higher than in 2008.

The thing is, turnout for Republicans will likely be even less than 2008. Romney instills no enthusiasm and registered Dems still make up a larger number in many states, including Ohio, than registered Republicans. I don't think there's anything wrong with giving Dems a higher turnout in a union heavy state like Ohio.

[Brett85]

Obamney will prob win this thing by 10+. Luckily for us, it doesn't really matter who wins. It's Obamney or Obamney, so who cares.

Except that a Romney loss by a significant margin hurts the liberty Republicans down the ballot.

[Brett85]

The thing is, turnout for Republicans will likely be even less than 2008. Romney instills no enthusiasm and registered Dems still make up a larger number in many states, including Ohio, than registered Republicans. I don't think there's anything wrong with giving Dems a higher turnout in a union heavy state like Ohio.

We'll see what happens, but my guess is that the turnout for Republicans will be somewhere in between 2008 and 2004. The early absentee ballot numbers by party seem to suggest that. But we'll see what happens. I've been wrong before.

[Bastiat's The Law]

Except that a Romney loss by a significant margin hurts the liberty Republicans down the ballot.
But throw the republican party into disarray as a whole. We could step in and show them how to win with candidates worth a damn.

[brandon]

Couldn't happen to a better guy!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJJKW7ea1oc

wow! I must say, he is a pretty brave fellow. If I embarrassed myself like that, over and over again, I'd probably call it quits and withdraw from society. But he just keeps on going!

[RickyJ]

Couldn't happen to a better guy!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJJKW7ea1oc

His problem is he is trying too hard to act like he gives a damn when he doesn't really give a damn. Him speaking to his wealthy donors revealed more of the true Mitt Romney.

[alucard13mmfmj]

too bad.. that 9% could have been Ron Paul supporter votes lol.

[supermario21]

This poll is ridiculous, 52% of respondents voted for Obama while only 40% went for McCain. The state was 51-47 for Obama so this was a grossly oversampled Democratic poll. The fact that Romney made inroads to be only down 9 likely means this race is a lot closer than the media wants to report it.

[supermario21]

The thing is, turnout for Republicans will likely be even less than 2008. Romney instills no enthusiasm and registered Dems still make up a larger number in many states, including Ohio, than registered Republicans. I don't think there's anything wrong with giving Dems a higher turnout in a union heavy state like Ohio.

Interesting you brought this up, Republicans have been far more enthusiastic in Ohio early voting than Dems, who are down 40% in absentee ballot requests.

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/09/30/absentee-ballot-data-from-ohio-not-good-for-dems/

[MozoVote]

The crucial problem for Romney is that Obama can easily afford to lose Ohio and one other major state. Romney must "run the table".

Maybe this poll is flakey, but it strains credulity to think the pollsters are getting it wrong everywhere at once.

[devil21]

We'll see what happens, but my guess is that the turnout for Republicans will be somewhere in between 2008 and 2004. The early absentee ballot numbers by party seem to suggest that. But we'll see what happens. I've been wrong before.

Im pretty sure that Republicans traditionally vote higher absentee ballots than Democrats, or at least vote earlier. So far I don't see any statistical evidence that this election shows any trends outside of the norm. It continues to show why Indys and voters like Paulites are so important.

Ive seen Republicans aghast at stats like Jewish voters favoring Dems this election 65-35. Then when only a little research is done it turns out that this is the usual polling split for presidential elections.

[LibertyEagle]

His problem is he is trying too hard to act like he gives a damn when he doesn't really give a damn. Him speaking to his wealthy donors revealed more of the true Mitt Romney.

What he said in that infamous clip wasn't even bad. It is true that most people on the dole will not vote for someone whom they believe will turn off the spigot.

[sailingaway]

PPP just tweeted that their poll has Romney down 4 points in Ohio.