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Agorism
09-27-2012, 08:09 PM
Romney trolls despair

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/27/14128100-polls-obama-leads-in-nh-tighter-in-nev-nc?lite

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/MSNBC/Components/Photo/_new/g-pol-120927-romneyobama.photoblog500.jpg


PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE (Marist)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 51%
Mitt Romney (R) 44%
PRESIDENT – NEVADA (Marist)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 49%
Mitt Romney (R) 47%

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (Marist)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 48%
Mitt Romney (R) 46%

US SENATE – NEVADA (Marist)
Dean Heller (R-inc) 49%
Shelley Berkley (D) 43%

GOVERNOR – NEW HAMPSHIRE (Marist)
Maggie Hassan(D) 47%
Ovide Lamontagne (R) 45%

GOVERNOR – NORTH CAROLINA (Marist)
Pat McCrory (R) 52%
Walter Dalton (D) 39%

ronpaulfollower999
09-27-2012, 08:30 PM
NC is interesting. If Romney loses that state, there is no way in hell he wins the election. Probably 300+ for Obama.

DamianTV
09-27-2012, 08:44 PM
Anyone remember that scene in Ghostbusters where they were forced to choose the Form of the Destroyer? Yeah, that is all this is, and the big central banks backing both of these asshats are Gozer.

MozoVote
09-27-2012, 08:45 PM
I was just e-mailing some folks in the Meetup about that. At some point, the major political sites will stop calling N.C. a "tossup" or "leans Romney". (RealClearPolitics, Nate Silver, etc) Obama has been consistently ahead in several polls lately by a few points. Eventually that consistency wins out over the size of the lead, and you have to say it's not a tossup anymore.

I'm beginning to wonder if not only could Romney fail to pick up any state other than Indiana - he might actually lose Missouri or Montana.

Agorism
09-27-2012, 08:52 PM
What makes you think Missouri or Montana could go Obama?

alucard13mmfmj
09-27-2012, 08:53 PM
At least Romney has Utah locked up.

QWDC
09-27-2012, 09:04 PM
If he doesn't quit talking, he may be staring at a Reagan style electoral blowout by the November. Worst overall GOP candidate and campaign I've ever seen, how do you lose to Obama with things the way they are?

Anti Federalist
09-27-2012, 09:05 PM
RCP has O-bomb-ya at 265 EC votes now.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Up from 249 last time I looked a couple of days ago.

One "swing state" win will do it.

http://meghanh4.edublogs.org/files/2010/11/toast-rzgyaq.jpg

(pinched your gag brother Phill)

MozoVote
09-27-2012, 09:11 PM
What makes you think Missouri or Montana could go Obama?

Missouri is often close, and there is the Akin effect ths year.

Montana is a tougher one but it could happen if enough people give up on Romney. Obama came fairly close in 2008 (with Ron Paul taking 2% of the vote on the Constitution party ticket.) Who knows, maybe those 2% stay home this year and Obama pulls a few more people in.

If Obama wins NC, MO, and MT (the outer limits of what I think is feasible) he's have a 360 vote electoral win based on how the polls are shaping up in the other battlegrounds.

MozoVote
09-27-2012, 09:34 PM
Also worth mentioning, there is little polling in Indiana because the conventional wisdom is that it's reverting back to tradition this time and not worth the effort to poll. But... Obama did win it in 2008. The Dems are still spending money there in a feignt to draw RNC money into defending it.

When there is a lopsided victory by one party or another, states fall in clumps. So I would not call Indiana a lock, either.

Brett85
09-27-2012, 09:59 PM
Obama is ahead in the polls, because Democrats are being over sampled by about 10 points. Romney is actually winning independents in most of these polls.

sailingaway
09-27-2012, 10:05 PM
Obama is ahead in the polls, because Democrats are being over sampled by about 10 points. Romney is actually winning independents in most of these polls.

Pollsters are only ranked within the last two weeks of the election.

MozoVote
09-27-2012, 10:06 PM
I've wondered if they are undersampling younger voters. Some polls have begun to include cell phones, but I think most people under 40 today will not answer their phone (landline or cell) at all without knowing who is calling. People are pretty jaded about push-polling and sales-polling as well.

sailingaway
09-27-2012, 10:14 PM
I've wondered if they are undersampling younger voters. Some polls have begun to include cell phones, but I think most people under 40 today will not answer their phone (landline or cell) at all without knowing who is calling. People are pretty jaded about push-polling and sales-polling as well.

I don't expect a big turn out from younger voters given the candidates.

Karsten
09-27-2012, 10:54 PM
I think it's kind of interesting that the only state that Obama won that Romney is leading in, is Indiana, by as much as 16 points. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/in/indiana_romney_vs_obama-3167.html

Any thoughts on why?

puppetmaster
09-27-2012, 11:39 PM
Missouri is often close, and there is the Akin effect ths year.

Montana is a tougher one but it could happen if enough people give up on Romney. Obama came fairly close in 2008 (with Ron Paul taking 2% of the vote on the Constitution party ticket.) Who knows, maybe those 2% stay home this year and Obama pulls a few more people in.

If Obama wins NC, MO, and MT (the outer limits of what I think is feasible) he's have a 360 vote electoral win based on how the polls are shaping up in the other battlegrounds. they love max baucus he is s dem and a pos

Bastiat's The Law
09-28-2012, 12:08 AM
The polls are accurate. They were last election cycle too.

oyarde
09-28-2012, 12:20 AM
I think it's kind of interesting that the only state that Obama won that Romney is leading in, is Indiana, by as much as 16 points. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/in/indiana_romney_vs_obama-3167.html

Any thoughts on why? The president won by about 1 percent , had not been won by a dem since the last, most permanently destructive dem other than this president , LBJ , will not ever happen again , socialism pill is serious in the state everywhere except the major cities. He will win Indianapolis, but not the state , Pence will win Gov , by a land slide , people do not like taxes.

MozoVote
09-28-2012, 06:34 PM
There was also a Civitas poll in N.C. with Romney behind. (Civitas is led by major league GOP donor Art Pope.)

43% Romney
47% Obama
4% Johnson

http://www.wwaytv3.com/2012/09/24/civitas-poll-obama-biden-lead-romney-ryan-nc

TCE
09-28-2012, 06:36 PM
No surprise. The two questions now become: 1. How many points will Obama win by? 2. What will happen to the House and Senate?

BenIsForRon
09-28-2012, 09:06 PM
It's hilarious how NC's leaning Obama but very strongly leaning republican for governor. That alone should be a wake up call for the GOP about how good they are at selecting presidents. But their head is still firmly secured in their ass, so they will probably go for Rick Santorum in 2016.

FriedChicken
09-28-2012, 10:27 PM
Santorum won't be running in 2016 - I say this only based on the health of his daughter ... If I'm not mistaken she is expected to die from her medical condition around then? I might be wrong.

FriedChicken
09-28-2012, 10:29 PM
But your point is valid. They will find some other neocon to declare "Oh my gosh they're awesome!!" (remember the excitement about Rick Perry? we actually thought he would be competition. lol wow.)

fj45lvr
09-29-2012, 10:07 AM
Mitt Magoo is toast

kathy88
09-29-2012, 10:09 AM
Yep. Looking forward to all the neocons I know blaming me personally for not taking one for the team. I have a finger to show them.