Libertarian surging in Indiana (causing headache for GOP?)

[Agorism]

http://howeypolitics.com

US SENATE – INDIANA (Howey/DePauw)
Joe Donnelly (D) 40%
Richard Mourdock (R) 38%
Andrew Horning (L) 7%

GOVERNOR – INDIANA (Howey/DePauw)
Mike Pence (R) 47%
John Gregg (D) 34%
Rupert Boneham (L) 5%

PRESIDENT – INDIANA (Howey/DePauw)
Mitt Romney (R) 52%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 40%

The Establishment there is still upset that Richard Lugar isn't running, and now the Libertarian is surging.

[AGRP]

What makes this person a "libertarian?" The L next to their name?

[emazur]

In the '08 Presidential race, the LP got the highest percentage of any state in IN

[GeorgiaAvenger]

I have come to realize all libertarian surges never materialize in the election.

[Agorism]

I have come to realize all libertarian surges never materialize in the election.

Last time the GOP had to endorse the Constitution Party in Colorado governor race no?

[MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2]

In the '08 Presidential race, the LP got the highest percentage of any state in IN

Indiana is where I've met libertarian Jews, libertarian German Baptists, and libertarian whatever. I was not aware of the stat you just posted, but not surprised.

Andy Horning ran for governor there in 2000. I've met him briefly on a few occasions, but he wouldn't know me. What makes him a "libertarian" is that he's a "libertarian." (Yes, i know it is circular, but it's the best I got off hand... but he was solid with the philosophy 12 years ago, so I doubt much has changed.)

Seeing the amount of people showing up at a "rally" or appearance for "Andy Horning" versus the amount of people showing up at "rallies" for republicans or democrats is how I first learned that the media manipulates crowd volumes to their viewers. That was in 2000.

[GeorgiaAvenger]

Last time the GOP had to endorse the Constitution Party in Colorado governor race no?That's because the Republican was like Todd Akin on steroids.

[angelatc]

What makes this person a "libertarian?" The L next to their name?

Hush and do your homework. Andrew Horning has been Libertarian since you were in diapers.

[MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2]

Hush and do your homework. Andrew Horning...


And he has been a very capable speaker and debater since a very young age. He's definitely not some guy that just showed up recently. He's been there, doing that, for quite some time. This is the first I've heard of him in awhile, but he's no "johnny come lately."

[Smart3]

What makes this person a "libertarian?" The L next to their name?
He campaigned for Dr. Paul for the record.

[ProvincialPeasant]

Yeah, let's take votes from Mourdock the evil neo-con Republicrat. Thank God for the Libertarian Party!

[Melissa]

I do know Andy and he has always been consistent in his message. I am proud to say I know him and agree 100% with his message. I would love for him to win...

[Feelgood]

http://www.bigtrends.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/surge.jpg

[BSU kid]

Don't talk shit about Andy, he is the real deal despite the "L" after his name. He has my vote.

[Agorism]

http://www.bigtrends.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/surge.jpg

I read an article about people selling packs of that stuff for like 200-300 dollars on ebay.
Apparently people like buying old sodas

[trey4sports]

yes, unfortunately the LP candidate almost always fades off into obscurity but we have to hold out hope that we can break through somewhere. That would be great.

[Jumbo Shrimp]

I have come to realize all libertarian surges never materialize in the election.

That's usually a good thing.

[supermario21]

Is Mourdock a neocon? Figured the libertarian support would be twice as much as it is if Lugar were the nominee.

[Melissa]

Is Mourdock a neocon? Figured the libertarian support would be twice as much as it is if Lugar were the nominee. He supports the Patriot act and a few other thing the Tea Party is different with us on. He was fine in the Primary as Lugar is really bad but he is not the best we can do....

[erowe1]

Is Mourdock a neocon? Figured the libertarian support would be twice as much as it is if Lugar were the nominee.

Yeah, but there wouldn't be any serious Democrat opposition if Lugar were the nominee.

[FriedChicken]

We want Mourdock to lose? Mourdock will probably be an ally to auditing the fed once he gets in and I think he stands a better chance than others at a rational perspective on foreign aid.

The Tea Party in Indiana I think is moving forward and I think Mourdock will move forward with them. Indiana hasn't had a senator that will actually listen to the people in a very long time ... I think Mourdock stands a chance at being a good senator. Horning would be a great senator ... why the heck doesn't he run in a race he can win? It makes me a little upset that he is content to lose.

[supermario21]

Yeah, I'd like to see Horning join the Republican party and maybe get involved in a primary in the next Senate or Gubernatorial election.

[angelatc]

And he has been a very capable speaker and debater since a very young age. He's definitely not some guy that just showed up recently. He's been there, doing that, for quite some time. This is the first I've heard of him in awhile, but he's no "johnny come lately."

I've kept in touch with him over the years. He dropped out of politics for business reasons (plus burn out, I suspect) for a few years. He's one of the Libertarian Party's best candidates IMHO.

[BSU kid]

We want Mourdock to lose? Mourdock will probably be an ally to auditing the fed once he gets in and I think he stands a better chance than others at a rational perspective on foreign aid.

The Tea Party in Indiana I think is moving forward and I think Mourdock will move forward with them. Indiana hasn't had a senator that will actually listen to the people in a very long time ... I think Mourdock stands a chance at being a good senator. Horning would be a great senator ... why the heck doesn't he run in a race he can win? It makes me a little upset that he is content to lose.

Disagree on Mourdock, clearly he has many "liberty" traits about him he is a solid "B" candidate, but he also has neocon tendencies; I especially don't trust his foreign policy, and I suspect he will flip flop for votes (there was already an article yesterday about him pandering to the center) and in general I don't trust him. Horning shares most of my beliefs and I trust him more, hence I will vote for him.

[Melissa]

Well that is for each person to decide, but when I asked him why he supports the Patriot act he got all defensive and told me that maybe I should vote for someone else..and I thought maybe he is right and this is before Andy who is way better decided to run.. I think the Tea Party in Indiana still has a way to go at our convention they still voted to keep us from actually nominating from the floor for delegates....they stood right up with the establishment and gave their own power away...and also some of the Tea Party groups are back to blindly supporting Republicans and telling us we have to vote for Romney...
We want Mourdock to lose? Mourdock will probably be an ally to auditing the fed once he gets in and I think he stands a better chance than others at a rational perspective on foreign aid.

The Tea Party in Indiana I think is moving forward and I think Mourdock will move forward with them. Indiana hasn't had a senator that will actually listen to the people in a very long time ... I think Mourdock stands a chance at being a good senator. Horning would be a great senator ... why the heck doesn't he run in a race he can win? It makes me a little upset that he is content to lose.

[FSP-Rebel]

On one hand, it would be a shame to lose another better than average republican in the Senate since that would allow one more vote for Obama's bs. Yet, it may send a signal to the tea party and their ilk that they can't win w/o liberty-minded folk. I remember Horning from my old LP days and always thought he was tip top when it came to liberty candidates. Assuming he knocks off the R and the dem gets in, it would be nice if he goes republican and primaries in the next election. Tho, I'm sure standard libertarian party members would outcast him for that.:rolleyes:

You'd think that they'd also poll the Lib for prez if they're polling middle digits for Gov and Sen.

[erowe1]

Yeah, I'd like to see Horning join the Republican party and maybe get involved in a primary in the next Senate or Gubernatorial election.

He's done that before at the congressional level I think, and the way the party treated him drove him out apparently for good. But I agree with you, that would be a much better route.

I haven't decided how I'll vote on that race yet. I like Horning. He's clearly the best candidate. But I kind of want to give Mourdock a chance and see what he does. If he's a Demint type, then I'd rather see him in the Senate than another Democrat.

On the other hand, whatever happens in November, to me the big victory was beating Lugar in the primary. As long as that was accomplished, the results of the general election are less important.

[deadfish]

I read an article about people selling packs of that stuff for like 200-300 dollars on ebay.
Apparently people like buying old sodas

Ha! So my Strategic RC Cola Reserve will eventually pay off.

[oyarde]

Donnelly must not win.

[bnvalerie]

Does anyone know where Horning stands on 10th amendment and Jury nullification?

[supermario21]

I think rather than be wishy washy on a guy like Mourdock (and other tea party prospects like Cruz) we need to get behind these guys fully. I think the tea partiers are a bit novice in their political skills and they seem to be bullied by the media and/or the establishment. Mourdock talked about being ideologically pure and against compromising with Democrats (which won him the primary over the hack Lugar) and now that he feels pressure that he needs to win over the center he might make errant comments like the one person earlier posted about working with the center. Indiana is a red state, he doesn't need to run a Scott Brown campaign here. If libertarian republicans were to fully support him, I would think he'd realize he got elected once with us, and he should stick to his guns. Donnely is like Dick Lugar 2.0 tilted even more to the left.

In fact, I just researched Donnelly a bit more, and he is officially Dick Lugar who doesn't want to repeal Obamacare. That's literally the only difference. If Mourdock came out for auditing the fed (which he might support), and a more non-interventionist foreign policy he could probably win over the anti-war crowd.



Second Edit: This is from Mourdock's site on defense:

Supporting a Strong National Defense and our Military Veterans

Richard supports our men and women in uniform and believes that a strong national defense is the best strategy to deter aggression. Richard believes that military force should be used only when a vital national interest is at stake and that any U.S. mission should come with clearly defined goals and objectives. Richard supports our Veterans and Wounded Warriors and will work to ensure that our Nation makes good on its commitment to those who have risked everything in the service of their Country.


We really should throw our support behind him and try to get him to come out against NDAA/drones/Patriot Act and I think we have ourselves another Rand. The rest of his issues talk about eliminating the IRS and returning to sound money. He's talked a good game, and now we have to get him to play a good game by showing that we support him. Don't let the establishment etch him as a moderate.

[Brian4Liberty]

This is one of those situations where a run-off would be a very good thing. Do any States do that for US Senate General Elections?

[supermario21]

This is one of those situations where a run-off would be a very good thing. Do any States do that for US Senate General Elections?

Pretty sure Georgia does. Would be good to put a liberty candidate up just to show how much the Republican party has come under influence of the liberty wing.

[erowe1]

Maybe Mourdock should call Horning and ask him, "What do I need to do to get you to drop out and endorse me?"

I would love to hear Horning's answer to that and Mourdock's response.

[Keith and stuff]

We want Mourdock to lose? Mourdock will probably be an ally to auditing the fed once he gets in and I think he stands a better chance than others at a rational perspective on foreign aid.

The Tea Party in Indiana I think is moving forward and I think Mourdock will move forward with them. Indiana hasn't had a senator that will actually listen to the people in a very long time ... I think Mourdock stands a chance at being a good senator. Horning would be a great senator ... why the heck doesn't he run in a race he can win? It makes me a little upset that he is content to lose.

Horning doesn't want to get elected to a legislative position. He is just trying to spread a message/grow a party... same old, same old. That is an important thing to do and IN has had 1 of the stronger state LPs for a while now.

Mourdock is likely much better than the Democrat in the race and of course, Horning isn't trying to win the race. My guess is that Mourdock wins because he picks up support from Romney voters and some of the LP voters turn towards him near the end.

[MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2]

Horning isn't trying to win the race.


What makes you say that?

[Keith and stuff]

What makes you say that?

He is running as an LP candidate for US Senate. If he was serious about winning, he would be running for something winnable like city council, county council and the like. LP candidate for state house almost never win, of course he isn't going to win a US Senate seat in a competitive race. The idea of him winning is laughable and he knows it.

[MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2]

I don't think having a low probability of success indicates that someone isn't trying (your first statement) or someone isn't serious (your second statement). If he is in the senate debates (and I think he will be if they have them), he is easily in their league.

Maybe this is a set up for another race he'll run later, but he will give 100% trying. I would knock doors for that guy. (and have)

[Keith and stuff]

I don't think having a low probability of success indicates that someone isn't trying (your first statement) or someone isn't serious (your second statement). If he is in the senate debates (and I think he will be if they have them), he is easily in their league.

Maybe this is a set up for another race he'll run later, but he will give 100% trying. I would knock doors for that guy. (and have)

Low probability of success? Even if the other 2 guys die, if either the GOP or the Democratic Party is able to nominate another candidate, he will still lose. We are talking close to zero. He might be a serious candidate but he isn't serious about winning.

Some people think it is good to have pro-liberty people run for higher office to spread a message. Some people think it is good to have pro-liberty people win lower offices and improve the laws. I have and will continue to support both approaches.

I guess we will just have to agree to disagree.

[TCE]

I don't think having a low probability of success indicates that someone isn't trying (your first statement) or someone isn't serious (your second statement). If he is in the senate debates (and I think he will be if they have them), he is easily in their league.

Maybe this is a set up for another race he'll run later, but he will give 100% trying. I would knock doors for that guy. (and have)

In all likelihood, Horning knows he has no shot. One doesn't run so many times and lose and then magically expect to win. To your point, it is impossible for us to know personally, but the evidence points to Horning knows he will lose.

To Keith and/or everyone else: Is there any reason strong state Libertarian Parties don't target local seats or pour all of their money and resources into State House seats that are winnable?

[Brian4Liberty]

Rand Paul on the defeat of Lugar:


Reports of the Tea Party’s death have been exaggerated greatly. Oh sure, Harry Reid may say it’s dead, and he clearly wishes it were so. The upset victory of Richard Mourdock in Indiana indicates the Tea Party is alive and well.

Something remarkable happened Tuesday night in Indiana. Voters from nearly every part of the Republican Party came together to vote for change. Not just any change - change from a well-liked 36-year incumbent. Let me note here that I mean no disrespect to my departing colleague, Richard G. Lugar, who is a gentleman and has served honorably.

But this kind of change does not happen very often in politics. Ninety-six percent of incumbents win. Defeating an incumbent is extraordinary and is evidence of an electorate that thinks government debt should be controlled. The chattering class complains about the death of the center and bipartisanship. We are told a safe seat has been endangered.

The reality is no such thing. We win as Republicans when we paint in bold colors. We win when we stand up for issues such as smaller government, constitutional principles, true liberty and the protection of life. We win when we take strong stands for the Second Amendment and the right to work. We succeed when our vision is clear and our principles are sound.

What happened on Tuesday was not one angry group of voters rebelling. It was not one or two conservative groups pushing an agenda. It was all of them, acting as one, urging the Indiana GOP to nominate someone who would stand with them.

I was in a similar situation in 2010. Throughout my primary, it was said ad nauseam that I could not win a general election. It was said that a candidate who stood with the Tea Party and fought so strongly against the Washington establishment would become roadkill in November. I won comfortably as voters saw and responded to a genuine message of change. The message was that of the Tea Party and constitutional conservatism. This is the message Mr. Mourdock will bring forward this fall, and I look forward to him fighting alongside me next year in the U.S. Senate.

The Tea Party sprang up out of two main events in 2008-09: the TARP bailouts and Obamacare. These were huge new reaches for big government. They were massive intrusions into running the private sector. They were against everything we as a party were supposed to stand for.

Senators and candidates who either were on the wrong side of these issues or simply did not stand up and fight have been deservedly running for cover ever since.

The Tea Party is not a single-issue group. Rather, it is a group that is fed up with an attitude in Washington. Tea Partyers are fed up with politicians who spend money we don’t have, racking up trillion-dollar deficits year after year.

They are tired of politicians who do not see limits in the powers of Congress and the federal government to intrude into our lives.

They are sick of being told they have to accept a mealy-mouthed version of what they believe and what they know we must do to save our country.

We must balance our budget sooner rather than later, or we will face ruin. This will require entitlement reform. Tuesday, Hoosiers voted for a candidate who publicly pledged to support the Tea Party budget in the Senate, which balances in five years.

We must repeal Obamacare and ensure that nothing like it passes ever again. Hoosier voters nominated the candidate who stood the strongest for the Constitution and for freedom.

We must fight to continue the small battles we already have won. Hoosier voters rewarded the candidate who pledged to keep the earmark ban and rejected the senator who just weeks ago voted to restore earmarks.

There is much hand-wringing also about outside groups in races such as these. Outside groups like the Tea Party groups, National Right to Work, Club for Growth and others certainly played a large role in this race, and this is as it should be. These groups are not special-interest groups lobbying for favors. They are principled organizations fighting for the government to leave them alone. The candidate who stood for such issues was rewarded and will be asked to stand for them again this fall.

Already the establishment cries that Richard Mourdock will not compromise - but compromise has been the name of the game for decades. Compromise leads to ever-escalating military and domestic spending. Washington needs statesmen, not horse traders. Our country needs principled leaders who will stand up and say no to trillion-dollar deficits.

I look forward to a class of Republican freshman senators next January who fit the bill of statesmen - and we will see this strong breed come forth out of primaries in the next few weeks and become victorious in November.

Sen. Rand Paul is a Kentucky Republican.

Read more: PAUL: Tea Party wins in Indiana - Washington Times http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/may/9/tea-party-wins-in-indiana/
Follow us: @washtimes on Twitter

[Brian4Liberty]

Mourdock campaigning during the Primary:


Indianapolis (April 23, 2012) — Indiana State Treasurer Richard Mourdock today pledged support for Senator Rand Paul’s (R-KY) balanced budget plan. Mourdock is challenging incumbent Senator Dick Lugar who has refused to support or co-sponsor the Rand Paul Balanced Budget Plan.

“Our federal deficit now stands at 1.5 trillion dollars and our national debt is now a more than 15 trillion dollar ball and chain on our economy — over $50,000 for every American (even children).

“Senator Paul’s budget plan will eliminate four cabinet agencies, block grant welfare and Medicaid programs to the states for more efficient management, and balance the budget in five years.

“Our nation faces a fiscal crisis of historic proportions. Indiana Republicans want a Senator who will fight to cut out of control government spending, not vote for bailouts like TARP.

“Unlike Senator Lugar, I won’t sit on the sidelines in Washington while President Obama and the tax and spend liberals in both parties drive our nation off the cliff of insolvency.”

“That's why I enthusiastically support Senator Rand Paul's 5-year balanced budget plan. Senator Paul's plan reins in out of control spending and gets our country back on the right track to fiscal responsibility and prosperity.

“Senators DeMint and Lee have also sponsored this budget. I plan to work closely with these Senators should the people of Indiana elect me as their next U.S. Senator. We have to bring the conservative values of Indiana to Washington, before it’s too late,” stated Treasurer Mourdock.

http://beforeitsnews.com/election-2012/2012/04/mourdock-endorses-senator-rand-pauls-budget-plan-2062740.html

[supermario21]

I love how Rand is leading a movement here. Even if we tend to nitpick at these guys a lot, they all seem to come back to Rand as their sort of "leader." Really good sign for the future.

[oyarde]

Donnelly must not win.

[AFPVet]

I'm proud of my state in this regard; however, we have A LOT of work to do yet.

[oyarde]

I'm proud of my state in this regard; however, we have A LOT of work to do yet. YES.

[MozoVote]

I would think Mourdock will pull it off in the end. Indiana seems to be one of the few states that had trended away from Obama. I wonder how many conservatives fleeing Illinois have helped.

[erowe1]

I would think Mourdock will pull it off in the end. Indiana seems to be one of the few states that had trended away from Obama. I wonder how many conservatives fleeing Illinois have helped.

I think just about all 50 states have trended away from Obama. It's just that there are only a handful where that trend will tip a state from Blue into Red, and Indiana is one of those. Obama's margin of victory in 2008 was only about 1%.

[BSU kid]

I would think Mourdock will pull it off in the end. Indiana seems to be one of the few states that had trended away from Obama. I wonder how many conservatives fleeing Illinois have helped.

I'm not so sure I see a lot of signs out for Donnelly here in Muncie (although lets face it's Muncie) and when I was in Kokomo recently. It seems there is a rust belt element who supports Donnelly.

[oyarde]

I celebrated being rid of Bayh & Dick , but Donnelly would be worse than both of them.

[torchbearer]

In all likelihood, Horning knows he has no shot. One doesn't run so many times and lose and then magically expect to win. To your point, it is impossible for us to know personally, but the evidence points to Horning knows he will lose.

To Keith and/or everyone else: Is there any reason strong state Libertarian Parties don't target local seats or pour all of their money and resources into State House seats that are winnable?

depends on the state.
federal elections are higher profile, so for a party that needs exposure its looks like a good bang for the buck. especially if there is a debate.
libertarianism is easier to sell on federal issues, where federalist arguments are better recieved.