Bad news Barack: Electoral College computer model shows big WIN for Romney

[RonPaulFanInGA]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2192464/Bad-news-Obama-Electoral-College-model-correctly-predicted-presidential-elections-1980-opts-ROMNEY.html


Bad news Barack: Electoral College computer model that's correctly predicted presidential elections since 1980 shows big WIN for Romney

A model which has foretold the correct results of the Electoral College selections in U.S. Presidential elections since 1980, has predicted a loss for Barack Obama and the Democratic Party.

The forecast was made by two professors at the University of Colorado who used economic data and unemployment figures from each state to predict a Republican win come November.

Political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry’s study predicts 218 electoral votes for President Obama and 320 for Romney with the Republican candidate winning every seat currently considered to be on the fence.

The prediction model uses economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia, including income per capita and both state and national unemployment figures.

[TheGrinch]

Yes, we all know that you're more interested in Obama losing than enacting real change, to the point that you mischaracterize the view of those who think that an Obama win might actually benefit the liberty movement more in the long run.

Not saying that side is right, or that it could ever get me to cast a vote for either establishment candidate, but this ABO "lesser of two evils" view that you continue to push is exactly what got us into this mess in the first place, when people jsut want to be on a winning team, rather than demand that a candidate that actually stands for them beore they cast their vote for him.

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Yes, we all know that you're more interested in Obama losing than enacting real change, to the point that you mischaracterize the view of those who think that an Obama win might actually benefit the liberty movement more in the long run.

Not sure what you're talking about, but were you one of those advocates for Bush winning in 2004 because he'd "be a lame-duck with only four years left"? :rolleyes:

[Sola_Fide]

That sucks.

[jkr]

and the "computer" will tell us what to do, based on DATA points and flawed formulas developed by even further flawed humans

yeah baby!

[cajuncocoa]

I have not seen any electoral map that predicts a Romney win.

Real Clear Politics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html)

Huffington Post (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map)

Electoral Vote.com (http://electoral-vote.com/)

270towin.com (http://www.270towin.com/)

CNN (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalculator#?battleground)

[Matt Collins]

A political scientist friend that I know predicts Obama will win the popular vote, but that Romney will win the electoral vote.

[Anti Federalist]

Not sure what you're talking about, but were you one of those advocates for Bush winning in 2004 because he'd "be a lame-duck with only four years left"? :rolleyes:

I voted Badnarik and damned the other two for the puppets and tyrants they were and are.

[Anti Federalist]

A political scientist friend that I know predicts Obama will win the popular vote, but that Romney will win the electoral vote.

Now, won't that raise some hell.

[TheGrinch]

Not sure what you're talking about, but were you one of those advocates for Bush winning in 2004 because he'd "be a lame-duck with only four years left"? :rolleyes:
This rhetoric is exactly what I was talking about.

No, I was one of the ones who voted libertarian because I realized the error of my ways voting for that POS Bush the first time, along with a recognition that the Dems were offering nothing more than the same.

What was your reasoning for voting for Bush? :rolleyes:

[pcosmar]

Now, won't that raise some hell.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XazOmi4yIbU

[angelatc]

This is bad news for the conservative wing of the GOP as well. I'm much more concerned about the House and Senate than I am the president.

[Dr.3D]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XazOmi4yIbU
Maybe that's what all of that ammo is for.

[Anti Federalist]

Seen that 1000 times. ^^^^

Crack up every single time.

[ExPatPaki]

A political scientist friend that I know predicts Obama will win the popular vote, but that Romney will win the electoral vote.

I would love to see that happen. Just like Bush/Gore 2000.

[Lucille]

Well, maybe the American people will finally realize that there's no real difference between the two parties when, once again, nothing changes.

2016 – the Year from Hell
A Third Party on the Horizon? (http://armstrongeconomics.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/armstrongeconomics-presidential-elections-2016-0625111.pdf)


For decades, the people may cheer a politician when he is running for office. But the polls have consistently shown the public just has never trusted them and have been demanding for decades that some ethical standards be enforced. Good luck! Since they and judges give themselves the title of Honorable without earning it, pretty much nothing will ever change. It is simply foolish to expect otherwise. Society has to be brought to the brink of extinction to get political reform. The good politicians who want to do the right thing are too few to matter and are ignored, like Ron Paul.
[...]
Third Party votes have impacted the Senate more so than the House. Nevertheless, in the Senate we have Ron Paul [He must have meant to say Rand here] who everyone knows and speaks a lot of common sense. We can see that there is a rise in Third Party activity and by 2016, we should see a sharp return to the same levels of political instability that we saw going into both the Great Depression and the Civil War. As politicians cut all the promises they made for so long, a lot of people are going to get really upset. This will be reflected in a rise of Third Party activity that once captured 30% of the total vote!
[...]
The raw numbers show interesting trends. The Democrats on an Electoral College basis reached 523 votes in 1936. The Republicans reached 520 with Nixon in 1971 and 525 in 1984. The Democrats fell for 12 election cycles (48 years) before making a rally with Clinton reaching 370 in 1992 and 379 in 1996. Obama reached only 365 so he did not restore a bullish trend, but simply made a bear market rally. Therefore, even with Obama being black, the Democrats were unable to beat that achieved by Bill Clinton. The numbers show that the days of Marxism are numbered. But the days of the right wing religious followers do not look so good either. What is percolating behind the scenes appears to be a political change toward greater independence. The Revolution Cycle is likely to hit in 2068.

The Democrats have promised the moon, but funded nothing. Their constant attack on the class structure and corporations has done far more harm than good. They have chased jobs from America and no matter what you show them, they will not change their ways. The Republicans have also lost their way and desire to be the world policeman of imperialism forcing American doctrine upon the rest of the world, but we ran out of the bankroll to support that agenda. The Republicans are behavior Marxists and demand to control what people think and do. They have destroyed the LIBERTY that was supposed to be the number one objective of the constitution and transformed the USA into the biggest prison camp the world has ever seen. The US imprisons more people than Europe, Russia, and China combined. We prosecute everything and aggressively seek tax prosecution cases. They forgot what made Reagan popular – FISCAL CONSERVATISM, not religious fanaticism. As his son said at his funeral, his father never imposed his religion upon anyone else.

The future appears one of rising political discontent. A return to fiscal conservatism and the right wing has become as nuts as the left. Americans will rise once again to a Third Party. To the shock of most, this will exceed the old highs of 30% and 2016 looks like the YEAR FROM HELL!

"Behavior Marxists." Love that, and I'll be using it.

[Okie RP fan]

Apparently, these guys have been right on the money since 1980 regarding the presidential elections. Their formula is simply based off of state unemployment levels. Their study predicts that Romney will win across the nation with 52.9% of the popular vote, and something around 320 to 218 electoral votes.
Link:

h t tp://www.newson6.com/story/19350234/colorado-professors-predict-romney-will-win-oklahoma-nation-in-november

So, the GOP does not need us at all. Which, again, is even more reason to urge friends and family, and even those who we thought were part of the r3volution (some have gone back to the party thinking), to abstain, write-in, or vote third party. After all, Romney has this locked up, right?

[Cody1]

My gut feeling says Obama gets it barring any unusual events. America is still in love with far left ideals. I live in South Carolina and there's a VERY large Obama contingent here. I see more Obama 08 and '12 stickers than anything else.

[Romulus]

very entersting... maybe they know who rigs the machines?

[phill4paul]

Pretty impressive record to have been accurate since 1980. However, when it comes down to any number of things can happen before November.

[pochy1776]

Yes, we all know that you're more interested in Obama losing than enacting real change, to the point that you mischaracterize the view of those who think that an Obama win might actually benefit the liberty movement more in the long run.

Not saying that side is right, or that it could ever get me to cast a vote for either establishment candidate, but this ABO "lesser of two evils" view that you continue to push is exactly what got us into this mess in the first place, when people jsut want to be on a winning team, rather than demand that a candidate that actually stands for them beore they cast their vote for him.
We both get Fucked up by both. There won't be a liberty movement by 2016, by that time we will all be in jail or dead.

[pcosmar]

very entersting... maybe they know who rigs the machines?

That Concern is a concern.

[ZENemy]

Obama = Police state

Romney = Police state

I don't get why anything else is even worth discussing.

[cajuncocoa]

I voted Badnarik and damned the other two for the puppets and tyrants they were and are.I sooooo regret not voting for Badnarik. I didn't get it yet in 2004....I not only voted for Kerry, I campaign for him, and ran his message board too. Damn, do I ever regret that on sooooo many levels.

I really, really didn't like Bush...that's my defense. I am not now, nor have I ever been a liberal Democrat.

[idiom]

Bad News for the electoral college more like.

[torchbearer]

the input data for this study didn't use polling data, just economic data.
kinda like using the sports page to predict tomorrow's weather.

[Liberty74]

I have not seen any electoral map that predicts a Romney win.

Real Clear Politics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html)

Huffington Post (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map)

Electoral Vote.com (http://electoral-vote.com/)

270towin.com (http://www.270towin.com/)

CNN (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalculator#?battleground)

I would not put much faith in extreme Left wing media numbers. Their numbers aren't using a formulation that has correctly predicted the Presidency since 1980. Those media outlets are going by most likely out of whack and bogus polling numbers. CNN is know for that cough cough Santorum.

I predict Romney/Ryan take a 10 point plus lead among likely voters in the USA Today polling after their convention. Obama will have his convention settling the polling numbers back into the high 40s for each. Then the race is on in about a dozen states. Always expect a possible October surprise from both sides.

[Shane Harris]

After much deliberation, I think I'm going to throw my protest vote at Mr. Johnson:/ not my first choice or one that has me excited like when I voted for Ron in the primaries, but I think its of better use than simply abstaining (since it is so popular to say that you can't complain if you don't vote, which I disagree with but it still helps to vote for somebody). At least it will register and be counted (I wish Ron was gonna be somewhere on the ballot). Of course the LP isn't going anywhere ever, but at least if they get any press thats good news because thats planting a seed at the very least in someone's mind that there are options outside of the false left-right paradigm. Suck it Romney. I hope Obama crushes you and everyone knows it is because the current GOP is broken.

[WilliamShrugged]

We both get Fucked up by both. There won't be a liberty movement by 2016, by that time we will all be in jail or dead.

Speak for yourself... Government agents have to find you first.

[jonhowe]

Maybe that's what all of that ammo is for.

In the immortal words of Biggie Smalls, "whatcha think all the guns is for? All purpose war, got the rottweilers by the door!"

[randpaul2016]

and its Mitt Romney

http://www.webpronews.com/presidential-winner-predicted-in-state-by-state-analysis-2012-08

http://www.mercurynews.com/elections/ci_21382461/romney-will-win-election-state-by-state-study?source=rss

http://www.examiner.com/article/presidential-winner-predicted-mitt-romney-edges-out-obama

[jbauer]

This..


After much deliberation, I think I'm going to throw my protest vote at Mr. Johnson:/ not my first choice or one that has me excited like when I voted for Ron in the primaries, but I think its of better use than simply abstaining (since it is so popular to say that you can't complain if you don't vote, which I disagree with but it still helps to vote for somebody). At least it will register and be counted (I wish Ron was gonna be somewhere on the ballot). Of course the LP isn't going anywhere ever, but at least if they get any press thats good news because thats planting a seed at the very least in someone's mind that there are options outside of the false left-right paradigm. Suck it Romney. I hope Obama crushes you and everyone knows it is because the current GOP is broken.

[pcosmar]

Computer Model shows

GI GO

[AuH20]

Whomever thinks Obama is going to run away with this election in this type of historically abysmal economic environment is a fool. It's going to be close.

[devil21]

I don't see how Romney buries the mountains of dirt on him to win. Lots of people won't vote for a Mormon. Romney's Bain stuff will be dug up more and more. Obama has plenty of dirt but most everyone knows it now. Sure, things can happen during the campaign but Romney has a huge hole to dig out of. I also wonder how many times since 1980 have we actually had economic data like right now? 9% official unemployment. When was the last time we had that during an election year since 1980? Can't think of any. I doubt the models can replicate what's going on right now economically.

[jkob]

I think the method makes sense but there way too many other factors. Obama will make this about personality and win.(not that Romney is any better of course)

[F3d]

This is only one model. If you add up many of the models, it's 60% Barack and 40% Romney, which is around the same percentage you find on bids on the election e.g. Intrade.