Is Innovation Dead?

[lx43]

http://forwardthinking.pcmag.com/none/300403-is-technology-working-eric-schmidt-and-peter-thiel-disagree

I tend to agree with Thiel that innovation has slowed dramatically and I blame the govt for causing it. What entrepreneur wants to take risk to invent something new when the govt can take 60% of your income from your profits and govt increases the cost of doing business with millions of regulations that cost trillions of dollars just to comply with. No wonder only a handful of people are willing to take risk now.


Thiel said Schmidt was doing "a fantastic job as Google's minister of propaganda," and agreed that technology is critical. It is developed countries—the United States, Western Europe, and Japan—that need innovation because places like China, India, Africa, and Latin America have "zero need for innovation" as they can just copy things that work. He doesn't think the state of technology innovation is healthy, although there are obviously successful individual companies, particularly those that "have world-class monopolies like Google has in search."

Thiel said the big question about the pace of technological progress is shown by what has happened to wages. In the last 40 years, median wages in the United States have been stagnant, while in the 40 years before that, they grew sixfold. In that period, between 1932 and 1972, he said we had incredible technological progress, with better cars, the start of the aeronautics industry, and the invention of computers.

Thiel said the simplified account of the past 40 years is that we've had incremental but relentless progress on the computer side, but "a catastrophic failure of energy innovation." Since 1973, oil prices have increased from $2 a barrel to higher than $100 a barrel.


This has happened, Thiel said, "because the government has outlawed technology." Companies can't develop new drugs because it costs $1.3 billion to get FDA approval, for example. You also can't fly supersonic jets because they're too noisy and you can't build nuclear power plants.

"We've basically outlawed everything having to do with the world of stuff, and the only thing you're allowed to do is in the world of bits," Thiel said, so the only areas that are allowed to have progress are in computers and finance, and it looks like finance is in the process of getting outlawed. "Moore's Law is good if you're a computer, but the question is, how good is it for human beings?" he asked.

[DamianTV]

I, for one, and am probably not alone, have no interest in trying to invent anything as it would most likely immediately be confiscated either by a Company that claims they own Copyright / Patent on whatever I invent, or to be over taxed and over regulated into less than mediocraty where it is more cost effective to collect unemployment than to create anything new.

[Indy Vidual]

Peter does mention "the only thing you're allowed to do is in the world of bits"...


I, for one, and am probably not alone, have no interest in trying to invent anything...

Except on the Internet where successful, original projects can still make you and your partners very rich (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?238518-April-Fools-Sunshine-Patriots-Inc.-Presents-quot-Who-Wants-To-Be-THE-Billionaire-quot&p=2622965#post2622965). :D

[Anti Federalist]

If you innovated like Tesla, or Edison, or Oldsmobile, or Hammond, or Firestone, or Ford, or the Wrights or a thousand other people at the height of American industrialism, you'd be arrested today.

[lx43]

If you innovated like Tesla, or Edison, or Oldsmobile, or Hammond, or Firestone, or Ford, or the Wrights or a thousand other people at the height of American industrialism, you'd be arrested today.

Scary isn't it to start a business? There are many potential entrepreneurs that would like to start a business but are afraid they'll break some idiotic law and go to prison for longer than a rapist.

[lx43]

I'd thought I'd link this article since its about innovation on the internet and why the govt didn't invent it.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444464304577539063008406518.html

[Revolution9]

Not in my current industry..games. There are amazing innovations in squeezing shit tons of code and graphics, animation, physics and particle efx into the 16ms per frame you have aloted for a smooth game. The gubmnt wouldn't know how to regulate this so we are safe for now.

Rev9

[Revolution9]

I'd thought I'd link this article since its about innovation on the internet and why the govt didn't invent it.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444464304577539063008406518.html

Good article. I was gonna post the link after I read it thinking RPF's will like this..heh..till I remembered where I linked from..

Rev9

[heavenlyboy34]

Not in my current industry..games. There are amazing innovations in squeezing shit tons of code and graphics, animation, physics and particle efx into the 16ms per frame you have aloted for a smooth game. The gubmnt wouldn't know how to regulate this so we are safe for now.

Rev9
If they really wanted to regulate it, they'd hire a commission to learn how to do it (and send the tax cattle the bill for it, of course). ;)

[Revolution9]

If they really wanted to regulate it, they'd hire a commission to learn how to do it (and send the tax cattle the bill for it, of course). ;)

Someone would make an android iOS app to circumvent them in a week.

Rev9

[sevin]

Sometimes I think the only reason the government has allowed innovation in computers is because they can be used to spy on everyone.

[QuickZ06]

I, for one, and am probably not alone, have no interest in trying to invent anything as it would most likely immediately be confiscated either by a Company that claims they own Copyright / Patent on whatever I invent, or to be over taxed and over regulated into less than mediocraty where it is more cost effective to collect unemployment than to create anything new.

Have some great ideas and inventions but after looking into Patents and what not I had to bail as cost is insane. And I would hate to be sued for using 0.0000001% of someone else idea that they already put out there in public.

[Anti Federalist]

Sometimes I think the only reason the government has allowed innovation in computers is because they can be used to spy on everyone.

I am intrigued by your ideas and wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

[DamianTV]

This whole forum is a Thought Crime in Progress.

That is what killed Innovation. It didnt die of natural causes, it was murdered, while its mother, Necessity is starving to death.

[idiom]

I don't know what this is all about. There is a tonne of innovation and invention going on. I struggle each day to keep up.

[DamianTV]

How much of that innovation that you see every day frees the average man from becoming a slave to technology? How much of that technology wasnt created by a Corporation or a Government?

[specsaregood]

You all sound like a bunch of whiners. I see and do innovate every single day.


If you innovated like Tesla, or Edison, or Oldsmobile, or Hammond, or Firestone, or Ford, or the Wrights or a thousand other people at the height of American industrialism, you'd be arrested today.
And yet, you think that would have stopped those guys? some people are just born to invent. they might have done it in secret but they still would have been busy in their labs.

[fisharmor]

Yes, yes, we all see and do innovation every day.
And early in the thread I thought it was pretty clear that nobody's disputing the innovation in computers.

I think there's a lot of other innovation going on too - the innovation that keeps corporations afloat after the state puts its newest asinine restriction on their business.
But none of this innovation is helping out the consumer.
Traffic deaths continue to top 40k per year, despite the fact that there's now only 8" of glass to look through, the whole car turns into pillows in an accident, and children are required to possess a bachelor's degree and have filed seven 1040s before they can get out of a carseat.

All of that bullshit creates innovation, sure. But what did we gain from it?

[jkr]

NO!
it is just NOT permitted...

[Jingles]

Innovation isn't dead, but it's more difficult to do so in heavily regulated industries. The technology sector is where there is much less regulation so much more productive things occur out of it. Even in regards to things like video games... just take the time to listen to the interview and how the market is shaping games today
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CNh-Mp_KhQ

The market will persist with or without the state. You cannot constrain the desires of consumers via the state if it is truly demanded.

[QuickZ06]

Innovation isn't dead, but it's more difficult to do so in heavily regulated industries. The technology sector is where there is much less regulation so much more productive things occur out of it. Even in regards to things like video games... just take the time to listen to the interview and how the market is shaping games today
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CNh-Mp_KhQ

The market will persist with or without the state. You cannot constrain the desires of consumers via the state if it is truly demanded.

Been playing this game and explaing it to my buddies I play Day Z with about how it was made and why a free to mod game is genius. Its one of the best games I have ever played and can't wait till the non beta comes out with Arma 3.

[lx43]

Sometimes I think the only reason the government has allowed innovation in computers is because they can be used to spy on everyone.

Excellent point. Plus Rep

[lx43]

I don't know what this is all about. There is a tonne of innovation and invention going on. I struggle each day to keep up.

I haven't seen much innovation in cars, power generation or energy, aerospace, space industry, education, medical, builders, and many other industries the past few decades. Now I'm not saying innovation is completely gone but a truly innovated idea to completely revolutionize these industry has not occurred.

If you look at which industries the govt has heavily regulated or been involved in for whatever fashion its basically nothing going on.

[idiom]

I haven't seen much innovation in cars, power generation or energy, aerospace, space industry, education, medical, builders, and many other industries the past few decades. Now I'm not saying innovation is completely gone but a truly innovated idea to completely revolutionize these industry has not occurred.

If you look at which industries the govt has heavily regulated or been involved in for whatever fashion its basically nothing going on.

In the last ten or so years we have seen the low-cost airline model turn the industry upside down, we now have several manufacturers of viable electric cars, we have two private space stations, we are about to the initial tests of power generated in orbit being beamed to Earth, space development is on fire with multiple privately financed launched systems now in operation or development, we have roboticly constructed sky-scrapers... Medicine has genetically tailored treatments and non-tech treatments... we have 3D printers just becoming practical...

People are making fortunes on these innovations.

[tttppp]

I haven't seen much innovation in cars, power generation or energy, aerospace, space industry, education, medical, builders, and many other industries the past few decades. Now I'm not saying innovation is completely gone but a truly innovated idea to completely revolutionize these industry has not occurred.

If you look at which industries the govt has heavily regulated or been involved in for whatever fashion its basically nothing going on.

I agree. This looks almost exactly like one of my old posts on this topic.

[idiom]

Additionally, on of the most heavily regulated industries around, electoral politics, has been turned on its head over the last five years.

[lx43]

In the last ten or so years we have seen the low-cost airline model turn the industry upside down, we now have several manufacturers of viable electric cars, we have two private space stations, we are about to the initial tests of power generated in orbit being beamed to Earth, space development is on fire with multiple privately financed launched systems now in operation or development, we have roboticly constructed sky-scrapers... Medicine has genetically tailored treatments and non-tech treatments... we have 3D printers just becoming practical...

People are making fortunes on these innovations.

Low-cost airlines has nothing to do with innovation in airplanes; lost-cost airline has more to do with the airline industry being a very cut throat competitive market that had been slightly deregulated 20 to 30 years ago. Many of the items you are referring to such as private space station, orbital beamed power, electric cars, medical treatment, and 3D printers still haven't made it completely out of the labs into full scale commercial availability. Once these things are made into being commercially available then yes I would agree with you they are very innovative and in my opinion way overdo.

[idiom]

Low-cost airlines has nothing to do with innovation in airplanes; lost-cost airline has more to do with the airline industry being a very cut throat competitive market that had been slightly deregulated 20 to 30 years ago. Many of the items you are referring to such as private space station, orbital beamed power, electric cars, medical treatment, and 3D printers still haven't made it completely out of the labs into full scale commercial availability. Once these things are made into being commercially available then yes I would agree with you they are very innovative and in my opinion way overdo.

The new generation of aircraft have made substantial leaps forward in operations and efficiency. We have moved from the 747 which was designed with pen and paper to completely virtual design. There are flying-wing aircraft in the design offices ready to go, but the holding up is selling them to the market. Government regulation did stagnat faster than sound aircraft, but it was government investment that started them off far to early also.

[heavenlyboy34]

Someone would make an android iOS app to circumvent them in a week.

Rev9
Gotta love you programmer types. Always at least a few steps ahead of the regime. Computer nerds FTW! :cool:

[ClydeCoulter]

Some innovation is gone because the people that find new things have withdrawn from society. New things usually get used first for bad purposes if there is a possibility of destructive forces in it, their ideas are stolen and their idea is never fully allowed to be explored, etc...

[lx43]

The new generation of aircraft have made substantial leaps forward in operations and efficiency. We have moved from the 747 which was designed with pen and paper to completely virtual design. There are flying-wing aircraft in the design offices ready to go, but the holding up is selling them to the market. Government regulation did stagnat faster than sound aircraft, but it was government investment that started them off far to early also.

You proved my point with that underline statement you said "there are flying-wing aircraft in the design offices ready to go". My point is you can have the best invention ever invented in the design phases but as long as its never produced what good is it? Why aren't these new designs being produced if they are so great?

Also, where are these state of the art aircraft flying with the airlines? All I see is 40 year old designs, same old speed of travel, same old cockpit and cabin, same looking engines. I'm not seeing anything new. I would love to hear what is new.

[idiom]

You proved my point with that underline statement you said "there are flying-wing aircraft in the design offices ready to go". My point is you can have the best invention ever invented in the design phases but as long as its never produced what good is it? Why aren't these new designs being produced if they are so great?

Also, where are these state of the art aircraft flying with the airlines? All I see is 40 year old designs, same old speed of travel, same old cockpit and cabin, same looking engines. I'm not seeing anything new. I would love to hear what is new.

Convincing passengers to fly in something shaped like cinema instead of a bus seems to be freaking airlines out. Is that the governments fault? The like the incredible efficiency gains in fuel economy, but need to resolve the operational changes. This will happen but is proving more intractable than initially thought. If you think you can help solve it the industry will jump at any ideas you have.

B-52 look the same as they did 60 years ago but have been completely refitted multiple times. My laptop look very much like the one I was on 20 years ago, clearly it has seen no innovation at all.

A Fisher space pen looks a lot like a quill pen. Is that the government restricting innovation in the form factor of the stylus?

Aircraft look like aircraft for reasons entirely unrelated to technology. Flying wings have been around for 70 years or more. Their use in civil aviation is entirely restricted to market dynamics now. Previously the flight dynamics were a tad complicated, that has been resolved. Landing in a crosswind without a vertical tail surface is a pig without a computer.

Space is a great example, the problem with space development is that it is high risk, long term and low return. Basically the opposite of venture capital ideals. The innovation happening at the moment in space flight relates to funding 15 year ventures with low returns. The problem here has actually been government investment rather than regulation. I has caused massive distortions and upset the natural market growth of space technology and severely confused market expectations. Apollo is widely considered to have held back space development by sixty years by setting unrealistic and unhealthy precedents. The Shuttle also killed off several start-ups. Now that the US and other governments are reducing involvement in space development, private advances are really taking off.

[lx43]

Convincing passengers to fly in something shaped like cinema instead of a bus seems to be freaking airlines out. Is that the governments fault? The like the incredible efficiency gains in fuel economy, but need to resolve the operational changes. This will happen but is proving more intractable than initially thought. If you think you can help solve it the industry will jump at any ideas you have.

B-52 look the same as they did 60 years ago but have been completely refitted multiple times. My laptop look very much like the one I was on 20 years ago, clearly it has seen no innovation at all.

A Fisher space pen looks a lot like a quill pen. Is that the government restricting innovation in the form factor of the stylus?

Aircraft look like aircraft for reasons entirely unrelated to technology. Flying wings have been around for 70 years or more. Their use in civil aviation is entirely restricted to market dynamics now. Previously the flight dynamics were a tad complicated, that has been resolved. Landing in a crosswind without a vertical tail surface is a pig without a computer.

Space is a great example, the problem with space development is that it is high risk, long term and low return. Basically the opposite of venture capital ideals. The innovation happening at the moment in space flight relates to funding 15 year ventures with low returns. The problem here has actually been government investment rather than regulation. I has caused massive distortions and upset the natural market growth of space technology and severely confused market expectations. Apollo is widely considered to have held back space development by sixty years by setting unrealistic and unhealthy precedents. The Shuttle also killed off several start-ups. Now that the US and other governments are reducing involvement in space development, private advances are really taking off.

You aren't getting my point, you keep referring to tiny incremental changes in aerospace which is great. Any small improvements is always positive. I am talking about macro changes such as supersonic speeds where you can fly from LA to Tokyo in 2 to 3 hours--yes there is a govt restriction where aircraft can't fly supersonic over the US. Furthermore, I bet you an extremely fast supersonic jet flying at 5,000 MPH will not look like the planes of today.

As for space, there was strict govt regulation on commercial launches up until mid 1980s. Before that time all commercial space launches had to be carried out by NASA on the space shuttle which cost about $10,000.00 per pound to launch.

I do agree with you that we are starting to have some exciting commercial ventures start up and are doing some interesting things. I wish them all great success.

[lx43]

Have you read a book called "Space-The Free Market Frontier"? They have some interesting suggestions in the book such as Zero G, Zero Tax Act. Zero G, Zero tax would not tax any income from business activity that occurs in space but I would like to see an amendment to the bill that states that individual investors that invest in space companies will not have to pay capital gains or dividends derived from these investments. I believe this law would greatly encourage more commercial activity and exploration of space by the private sector. Another idea that was proposed in the book was say a company decides to build a permanent base on the moon or Mars. The first company that reaches this goal would be given tax-exempt status for a period of 25 years from their worldwide income and not just space related activity as proposed by Zero G for Zero Tax law. I bet a lot of companies like Exxon Mobil that pays $30 billion a year in corporate income taxes would give it a shot to be the first to the moon or Mars.

I would extent the tax exempt status to individuals, groups of individuals, or small companies that want to join forces to certain goal of say going to Mars and I would extend it to include many things that could better the lives of human race such as Faster Than Light Travel, find a cure for diseases, creating a clean and sustainable power source such as fusion or anti-matter power.

The best part about the tax exempt plan is that it would get people use to not paying taxes, would encourage free market solutions to problems we face, and take away the life blood of govt, tax revenue.

[RonRules]

Right now, there's tremendous innovation in the world of highly efficient piston engines. It's actually surprising because most people would think that this is a really mature technology. It could be this innovation is necessary because the gov back'ed electric cars are a flop.

There's 6-7 different companies making opposed-piston engines. The designs are really clever. Not a dime of gov money.

I recently spent a couple of days looking over all the different designs to figure out which one would be the best. All these companies are American.

Don't necessarily believe all the hype, but evaluate the designs. My favorite is Pinnacle:

http://www.pinnacle-engines.com/technology.html
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2011/03/pinnacle-20110331.html

These guys are very near mass market production:
http://www.achatespower.com/opposed-piston-engine.php

Bill Gates has a lot of money in these guys:
http://www.ecomotors.com/
http://www.ecomotors.com/technology
http://www.autoinsane.com/2009/03/09/news/tech/video-revolutionary-opposed-cylinder-opposed-piston-engine/

I like this too, but it's not near commercialization:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j53v75mJj_4&feature=relmfu
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0S3nTc_ogE&feature=related

These guys are trying hard:
http://www.scuderigroup.com/

Linford:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODmBn0i9ltQ

There's a renaissance of opposed piston engines as this new book claims:
http://ebookbrowse.com/opposed-piston-engine-renaissance-pdf-d298688880


Here's an extremely clever design (not piston opposed). You gotta root for this guy!
http://www.angellabsllc.com/
http://www.angellabsllc.com/resourse.html (Can't spell "resource", but he's got an amazing Excel animation. Never seen that before)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4R1yw6yWzM


I think it's all neat stuff. Tremendous art and creativity that few people know about or appreciate:
https://www.google.com/search?q=opposed+piston+engine+designs&hl=en&rlz=1C1GGGE_enUS484US484&biw=1152&bih=739&prmd=imvns&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=J7QQUN6KKMiIiALn6IFI&ved=0CF4QsAQ

There's also a bunch of "free piston" engines. This one from Australia. Extremely clever:
http://www.freepistonpower.com/fp3.aspx

Some older designs that were actually in production decades ago:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGaISFg_ZIw

A whole bunch of designs here:
http://www.opposedpistonengines.com/

Just get the gov out of the way and you'll get plenty of creativity!

[RonRules]

The most clever, scroll down the page to see animation:

http://www.freepistonpower.com/fp3.aspx

[lx43]

The most clever, scroll down the page to see animation:

http://www.freepistonpower.com/fp3.aspx

Thanks for the info I'll have to look at your links.

[Sam I am]

If you compare the last 20 years worth of innovation to the previous 200 years, than It might seem like innovation is slowing down, but In reality, It's never been stronger.

[idiom]

Great article on the subject:

http://www.market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=209444

[PaulConventionWV]

If you innovated like Tesla, or Edison, or Oldsmobile, or Hammond, or Firestone, or Ford, or the Wrights or a thousand other people at the height of American industrialism, you'd be arrested today.

What did Oldsmobile do? I'm curious because I owned one and it kept breaking down. Otherwise it was a nice powerful car that was designed like a middle class luxury vehicle.

[PaulConventionWV]

Sometimes I think the only reason the government has allowed innovation in computers is because they can be used to spy on everyone.

Happy thoughts. The government allowed innovation in computers because they couldn't stop it. :)

Feel better?

[angelatc]

Really, you guys are spoiled.

I just got through telling my kid that when I was young, we had to get up off the couch to turn the station on the black and white TV. I remember reading about calculators in the newspaper. They had a red display, and could do all 4 math functions. They cost almost $100 1968 dollars.

A few years later, Mom brought one home. She got it for free, because she opened a CD at the bank. We were absolutely amazed at the technology. And amused too, because if you calculated certain number of numbers related to McGovern's life, (Mom brought home a mimeograph being passed around work) you'd get 7734. Hold the calculator upside down, and you'd see exactly where the country was going to go if he was elected. (The 4 had an open top. )

Then the color TV came. Then a remote control. And video games. And computer controlled cars, both real and toy. And wireless phones, and then cell phones. Now there are cars that drive themselves.

After thousands of years on this planet, humanity got all this in 30 years.

And kids that grew up without knowing how rabbit ears and aluminum foil are related are suddenly worrying that innovation is dead.

Sorry, but I'm not putting that on my list of things I worry about.