Midwest food crops being ravaged by drought and heat

[devil21]

Check out the crop comments on this big agriculture website. Not looking good at all for midwestern (and other parts of the country) farms, particularly the more recent reports. Expect food prices to rise substantially in the very near future, especially if this weather keeps up.

http://www.agweb.com/blog/Crop_Comments_137/july_crop_comments_2012/

Here's a few select reports:

7/4 - Winnebago County, Wis.: Had rain last night, too bad the hail and high winds came with it. In some fields, the corn is flat. We should be thankful high grain prices will make up for yield loss.

7/6 - Crawford County, Ill.: We have a whole lot of 0's here. Most corn cooked weeks ago. This corn was planted May 12. No rain since planting.
http://www.agweb.com/assets/1/6/MainFCKEditorDimension/7-6-12%20IL%20drought%20corn.jpg

7/9 - Marshall County, Iowa: Light soils are gone. The corn has been trying to tassel for 10 days. Everything has almost stopped growing. We have water hemp in the beans that nothing will kill. Our broker says they might take two or three bushels off the national corn yield. I think I need a new broker.

7/9 - Williams County, Ohio: Still very dry and corn starting to die. Beans still have chance at 15-20 bu if it rains soon. We thought we planted corn but looks like tobacco.

Some positive or decent reports but most are very bad.

[Dr.3D]

Yeah, this is the worse year I've seen. I fully expect food prices to go out of sight next year. Michigan lost most of their fruit crops due to an early hot spell, enough to get the fruit blossoms and then it frosted. No apples, pears, cherries or raspberries this year.

[dannno]

Wow, that corn looks like green onions.

[Drex]

Corn fine here in Nebraska :)

[devil21]

Corn fine here in Nebraska :)

Looks like the reports vary widely based on whether a field was lucky enough to catch a few scattered storms or not.

7/10 - Stanton County, Neb.: Dryland corn is done! Some people in denial need to walk in field. Later corn tasseled and pollinating with no silks! No rain in seven days or low humidity 90 degrees and warmer by weekend. Yield range for corn on our farms...0 to 0 bpa. Soybeans...if it rains which is a big if may have some hope, not holding my breath!!

7/6 - Greeley County, Neb.: Dryland crops are gone. Was hoping for some rain so they would make silage. But haven't gotten any. We have only had 0.41" since June 1 and 2.25" since May 1. Pastures are gone and have had to start feeding cows. The first two cuttings of hay were less than 20% of normal and it doesn't look like there will be a third. Trying to decide if I should sell the cows or spend $40,000 on hay.

[Tod]

When I first planted my garden, I thought it was pretty big for one person, but next year's garden is probably going to be double the size, I do believe.

I have a small stream near the garden, but this year there isn't much flow in it; barely enough to keep the garden watered, I think. Don't have a way to transfer from the stream to the garden yet, but plan on coming up with a way. Maybe a combination engine/waterwheel pump arrangement.

This year I watered using a hose from my house well, but that puts a lot of extra wear and tear on the submerged pump, so I don't want to keep doing that.

[trey4sports]

Good GOD it's been hot and dry here in MO. 95+ everyday and it's rained maybe once in the last three weeks. Just ridiculous.

[James Madison]

Fields(soy beans) behind my house look OK. Some spots are better than others. I'm hearing that a lot of farmers in the region are pretty concerned whether or not they'll break even. Everything I'm growing in the yard is doing well save for the corn.

[Indy Vidual]

The forecast is more than a bit scary. Hope it gets better soon.

[oyarde]

Well , as of today , already , 40 % of Illinois corn crop , total loss , 60 % Indiana corn crop , total loss .

[jbauer]

The crops are F'ed. You get corn like that in the picture and its over. My sweet corn that went through that is at about 1/2 yield and thats giving it alot of credit.

As for the garden. We grow 1/2 acre. I put it in 1 month early and barley survived the late frost. I'm about the only one around here (Mid TN) getting much of anything. I'm up to 2 deep freezer packed the brim and every canning jar I can get my hands on!!

On food, its not the big climb in veggies and fruit to look out for. Its the climb in meat that will take awhile to show up thats going to hurt.

[chudrockz]

Good GOD it's been hot and dry here in MO. 95+ everyday and it's rained maybe once in the last three weeks. Just ridiculous.

Similar report here in Southern Minnesota. Could be really bad.

:(

[oyarde]

There is no corn within three miles of where I sit now that is not a complete loss , tasseled , no ears .

[Vessol]

If this is widespread, that's frighteningly scary. The home garden I've had this year is quite small to the past few years, going to have to change that up I see. Any one have an idea of total crop loss and how much this will effect prices?

[Meatwasp]

That is so sad. I planted a lot of jacobs dry beans but the jay birds ate quite a few.
Don't know how California crops are doing.

[gerryb]

Maybe they will stop growing corn and soybeans and put some real food in the ground after this.

But probably will just get more subsidies.

[Dr.3D]

Maybe they will stop growing corn and soybeans and put some real food in the ground after this.

But probably will just get more subsidies.

Emmm.... what kind of real food grows without rain?

[jdmyprez_deo_vindice]

We have had a lot of 3 digit temp days here in MD with little rain to speak of but so far the crops look o.k. In our own garden we had to heavily water for a few days when we were up to 106 - 107 with no rain.

[Meatwasp]

Emmm.... what kind of real food grows without rain?
L.O.L.

[kathy88]

Might be time for a greenhouse and hydroponics system.

[devil21]

Emmm.... what kind of real food grows without rain?

Monsanto hasn't figured that one out yet.

[Dr.3D]

Monsanto hasn't figured that one out yet.
Maybe they will come up with something with "electrolytes, it's what plants crave."

[dannno]

Might be time for a greenhouse and hydroponics system.

Ya, or an aquaponics system.

Those can really save on water, you just run some water over the roots, they soak up what they need, and you catch the remaining water back into the reservoir, which has a lid so there is no water loss.

Of course it would be hard to grow acres and acres of corn that way, but you could certainly grow all the carrots, onions and leafy veggies that people eat, let the animals graze on grass and hay where the corn used to be.

[Dr.3D]

This doesn't look good at all.


http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/drmon.gif

[heavenlyboy34]

This doesn't look good at all.


http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/drmon.gif

Wow, that's pretty much all the farm country. :eek: :( I haz teh sad.

[EvilEngineer]

Welcome to what Texas felt all last summer.

On a side note... if you do futures its a great time to get in on futures for corn and soy

[Dr.3D]

The outlook doesn't look good either.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.gif

[oyarde]

The outlook doesn't look good either.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.gif Yep , beef , chicken, fuel , egg ,milk prices, all produce increasing . Anything remotely tied to produce, corn , which is 20 % to fuel , now , feed , everything except pork...

[oyarde]

If this is widespread, that's frighteningly scary. The home garden I've had this year is quite small to the past few years, going to have to change that up I see. Any one have an idea of total crop loss and how much this will effect prices?Price effect ? more than you can imagine .

[oyarde]

Where I drive every day , the corn is so bad, it will not even be worth the fuel for, cutting & rolling to feed livestock , for those few grain farmers who still dabble in livestock , it will just be , one pass , disc it in . Write your big property tax check in Nov & May , see about next year , for those that can...

[KCIndy]

There is no corn within three miles of where I sit now that is not a complete loss , tasseled , no ears .


Not sure where you're at, but just today I was driving in the area between Indianapolis and Ft. Wayne in Indiana. My wife and I were looking at the corn crops, and I didn't see a single field - literally not a single one - that didn't look like a complete loss. The stuff is small and stunted and already tasseled. Even if we were to get adequate rain from now until fall, it's too late. The yields are going to be horrible, and frankly I wouldn't be surprised if some of the crop simply gets plowed back under. Might be cheaper to do that and buy a bit less fertilizer next spring. It is really and truly heartbreaking. :(

[oyarde]

Where I drive every day , the corn is so bad, it will not even be worth the fuel for, cutting & rolling to feed livestock , for those few grain farmers who still dabble in livestock , it will just be , one pass , disc it in . Write your big property tax check in Nov & May , see about next year , for those that can...

[oyarde]

Not sure where you're at, but just today I was driving in the area between Indianapolis and Ft. Wayne in Indiana. My wife and I were looking at the corn crops, and I didn't see a single field - literally not a single one - that didn't look like a complete loss. The stuff is small and stunted and already tasseled. Even if we were to get adequate rain from now until fall, it's too late. The yields are going to be horrible, and frankly I wouldn't be surprised if some of the crop simply gets plowed back under. Might be cheaper to do that and buy a bit less fertilizer next spring. It is really and truly heartbreaking. :( Well I am normally somewhere around 37 to 50 miles South of you, I have not been North ofthe North Side of Indy , but have seen Southern Indiana , Kentucky , Tennessee and Central Texas.

[oyarde]

Not sure where you're at, but just today I was driving in the area between Indianapolis and Ft. Wayne in Indiana. My wife and I were looking at the corn crops, and I didn't see a single field - literally not a single one - that didn't look like a complete loss. The stuff is small and stunted and already tasseled. Even if we were to get adequate rain from now until fall, it's too late. The yields are going to be horrible, and frankly I wouldn't be surprised if some of the crop simply gets plowed back under. Might be cheaper to do that and buy a bit less fertilizer next spring. It is really and truly heartbreaking. :(

I looked a little closer today , this morning , driving to the local coin shop in town , by to check on my Mother , onto work . Three counties . Saw nothing that would be worth even trying to harvest or use for feed . My good friend who pointed this board out to me a couple of years ago , I looked at the feild across from his house today , stopped in his driveway to drop something off on his porch ..... might be the worst thing I have ever seen. About two , three fee ttall , tasseled , no ears . I have seen same before, but at least with one ear instead of two , half filled out . I have seen sweet corn like this , but never field corn , except in 1988 , and once since , but not this bad since 88. In winter of 87 , I was home on leave , helped a friend destroy some hog pens ( had switched to beef , due to prices ) , fall of 88 , home again , we cut his corn for feed . No feed thisyear , just disc it , maybe next spring , see what fuel prices are ... sad. Not agood timefor those guysto eat fuel , seed , fertilizer, property tax and everyone elseto eat higher prices , way higher than people realize ...

[KCIndy]

Wow.

I swear I had not seen this news article when I made the comment about cutting the corn for fodder.... :(

But hey, good news: GMO crops are gonna save us!! (Yeah, right!)


http://www.denverpost.com/dnc/ci_21051012/some-corn-farmers-mow-fields-drought-worsens

Some corn farmers mow fields as drought worsens

DES MOINES, Iowa—Some cornstalks in fields around the farm where David Kellerman works stand tall, but appearances can be deceiving. When the husks are pulled back, the cobs are empty. No kernels developed as the plants struggled with heat and drought.

The soil in Kellerman's part of southern Illinois is like dust after less than an inch of rain since mid-April. This week, he and the farmer he works with packed it in. They cut and baled the withered plants to use as hay for their cattle.

As the worst drought in nearly 25 years spreads across the nation, farmers in Illinois and Indiana are finding themselves among the hardest hit. But they are not alone, and conditions are likely to get worse throughout the middle of the country with an unusually hot summer in the forecast.

Almost a third of the nation's corn crop is already showing signs of damage, and on Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released yet another report predicting that farmers will get only a fraction of the corn anticipated last spring when they planted 96.4 million acres, the most since 1937.

:(

[RonPaulMall]

I guess I picked a good time to stop eating corn and soy.

[Weston White]

When I first planted my garden, I thought it was pretty big for one person, but next year's garden is probably going to be double the size, I do believe.

I have a small stream near the garden, but this year there isn't much flow in it; barely enough to keep the garden watered, I think. Don't have a way to transfer from the stream to the garden yet, but plan on coming up with a way. Maybe a combination engine/waterwheel pump arrangement.

This year I watered using a hose from my house well, but that puts a lot of extra wear and tear on the submerged pump, so I don't want to keep doing that.

What about using a large/heavy duty solar pond/fountain pump along with a drip system (or an inline rig if the garden is large enough or the distance is great enough for multiple pumps)?

[oyarde]

I love sweet corn , on the cob . deer ate all of mine this year , had to buy some , this fall , will be eating deer.

[Dr.3D]

I love sweet corn , on the cob . deer ate all of mine this year , had to buy some , this fall , will be eating deer.

Emmm... corn fed deer. Yummy!

[tangent4ronpaul]

Isn't it federal law that gas has to contain a certain percentage of ethanol?

Wonder how that's going to work without corn... Will we see gas shortages and price spikes because of an ethanol shortage?

-t

[Dr.3D]

Isn't it federal law that gas has to contain a certain percentage of ethanol?

Wonder how that's going to work without corn... Will we see gas shortages and price spikes because of an ethanol shortage?

-t
I'm sure they will use what corn there is for fuel and drive up the price of chicken and other meats.

[oyarde]

Yep , chicken , eggs , milk , beef , fuel etc etc

[ClydeCoulter]

What I don't understand is that part of my garden is doing really bad, and I water heavily (tower sprinkler) for 12 hours (2 passes) each time it is needed (~ every 2 weeks). I can find moisture down 1 inch, but not overly much. It seems to be based on the plant type, not position in the garden.

Some things are miniature, like a little bit bonsai. And it doesn't matter the area, only the "type" of plant. Some flowers are miniature, some are normal, some huge, compared to what they should be (I have lots of perenials, and almost all vegetable and flowers are heirloom plants).

The sun is way too far north (in the afternoon), lot's of people commenting about that around here.

[tangent4ronpaul]

http://www.care2.com/causes/record-heat-wave-corn-soy.html

As a record heat wave baked the earth across the Midwestern United States this month, farmers in America’s bread basket looked on their bone dry fields and wilting crops with growing dread. This past June was the tenth driest on record in the U.S., creating severe drought conditions across several states, and the 10-day spell of unusual, unrelenting heat from the end of June through the first week of July significantly increased the stress on food crops already damaged by drought, including much of the nation’s corn and soy supply.

The United States is the world’s foremost producer of corn, one of the world’s most important food crops.
...

As a consequence of weeks of serious drought followed by severe high temperatures, U.S. corn farmers may be facing one of the worst crop losses in history. Monday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that heat and drought have significantly damaged the corn crop in 18 states, and nearly a third of the corn in those states is now rated in poor or very poor condition. Nationwide, only 40 percent of the corn crop is considered by the USDA to be in good condition.

Soybeans, too, have suffered during this season’s prolonged high temperatures. Monday fears of a significantly damaged 2012 crop pushed soy prices to an all-time record high.

Because the U.S. exports staple food crops to many other countries, the consequences of this year’s record-breaking hot dry summer will almost certainly push food prices higher not just within the country, but worldwide, for the rest of the year.

Massive crop losses due to natural disasters seem to be on the rise, and so too do related spikes in global food prices. Last year, a global wheat shortage drove a 36 percent increase in staple food prices worldwide. The cause? A severe drought and high heat in Texas led to wildfires that damaged two thirds of the state’s wheat crop. In 2010, drought and wildfires in Russia destroyed half that nation’s wheat fields, while epic flooding in Pakistan ruined not only food growing in the fields but also tons of stored grain.

In the continental U.S., the first six months of 2012 have been the warmest of any year since record-keeping began in 1895. Though scientists are usually hesitant to link any specific weather event to climate change, recent studies show that severe weather events across the globe are on the rise right along with the average global temperature.
...


http://www.centralvalleybusinesstimes.com/stories/001/?ID=21432

While conditions continue to be favorable for a bumper output over the northern part of the corn belt, the poor harvest in southern areas will greatly impact overall production of this year's crop, predicts the report.

The upcoming shortfall is likely to impact the price of corn feed and grain-related items significantly and could trickle down to higher food and gas prices, writes Mr. Sosnowski. Chickens, for example, eat primarily corn feed. Fuel currently contains between 5 percent and 10 percent of ethanol, which is distilled from corn.

Despite better agricultural practices from lessons learned during drought years dating back to the 1930s, much of the corn belt does not have irrigation, the report notes.

At least there is some good news in other agricultural areas. A wet pattern is evolving for the Mississippi Delta. According to Agricultural Meteorologist Dale Mohler, "The coming rains will help the soybean, rice and cotton crops in Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi, which have been struggling in drought and excessive heat."

The pattern will bring high humidity and frequent showers and thunderstorms to most of the Delta.

While it is too late to aid the corn crop in the lower part of the Midwest, showers and lower temperatures would still benefit soybeans grown in the region, the report says.


AccuWeather.com


Midwest Corn Crop Hinges on Next 30 Days


According to Nathan Fields, Director of Biotechnololgy and Economic Analysis for the National Corn Growers Association, "Producers up north still have a tremendous amount of yield potential left in their crop, provided they get timely rains."

AccuWeather.com agricultural meteorologists are concerned that new and frequent waves of near-100-degree temperatures and stingy rainfall will further stress crops over Iowa, Illinois and Nebraska into mid-August.

Updates

Friday: A disturbance was producing spotty rainfall moving through from Kansas to Wisconsin and Minnesota. However, the amount of rain being produced is well short of what is needed to turn things around. Rainfall in this zone will generally average 0.25 of an inch or less with some areas barely getting enough rain to briefly dampen the ground. Daily soil evaporation rates this time of the year are on the order of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch.

Thursday: 100-degree temperatures began to return to areas from Oklahoma to Illinois, ahead of schedule, due to the dry state of ground behaving like a desert.

Drought in Some Corn Areas Likely to Get Worse

Progress of the corn in Iowa and Nebraska during the past couple of weeks had greatly slowed as a result of the recent extreme temperatures and lack of rain. Only areas that rely on irrigation, such as portions of Kansas and Arkansas have been spared the worst.

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2012/590x393_07121559_mwtemps.jpg

The stress on even drought-resistant varieties from the central Plains to part of the Upper Midwest may not only result in lower yields by harvest time, but may also bring total crop failures at the local level.

A large part of the corn in the United States is grown in the northwestern part of the Corn Belt and the potential of extended heat and lack of sufficient rain in this area could have a greater negative impact on the nation's overall production than anticipated thus far.

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2012/590x393_07121601_mwrain.jpg

Meanwhile, as occasional downpours will be welcomed by agricultural interests in the Ohio Valley and central Great Lakes area, it is too little too late for much of this year's corn crop in the area. However, other crops grown in these areas, such as soybeans, may be spared "provided the rains come and have staying power."

According to Long Range Expert Joe Lundberg, "There's a risk of being too optimistic for rainfall in the Ohio Valley and central Great Lakes area as even in a wet pattern, rainfall can be very spotty due to the nature of summertime showers."

While the overall upcoming pattern supports sporadic rainfall in some eastern and northern areas of the Midwest, there will still be significant areas that receive little or no rain within this zone.

According to Agricultural Meteorologist Dale Mohler, "Mid July through the end of August is critical time for soybeans, so at least there is more time for recovery with this crop."

Evaporation rates are very high into the first part of August. Soaking rain on a regular basis instead of a brief downpour is needed to be of benefit beyond a couple of days.

Turning things around in the Midwest as a whole will be a difficult task as dry ground tends to bring higher daytime temperatures, which in turn raises evaporation rates and so on.

Speculation on Impact of Consumer Prices

Fields remained optimistic about minimal price increases to consumers, since many acres of corn were planted this year in the first place, but expressed concerned about recent years affecting in agricultural production in the U.S.

...

On a positive note it a appears near-perfect weather conditions last winter and spring have a bumper crop of wheat on the way from the U.S. and Canada Prairies for 2012.


http://www.desdemonadespair.net/

http://lh3.ggpht.com/-JmEJXDoG6YQ/UAAvm2PbiJI/AAAAAAAAHaY/ZI2Bb6inA8k/image%25255B5%25255D.png?imgmax=800

13 July 2012 (CNN) – A severe drought is spreading across the Midwest this summer, resulting in some of the worst conditions in decades and leaving more than a thousand counties designated as natural disaster areas, authorities said.

...

As of Tuesday, about 61% of the contiguous United States (excluding Alaska, Hawaii and Puerto Rico) was experiencing drought conditions, the highest percentage in the 12-year record of the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Unusually high temperatures and little rainfall over the past week have led to "widespread deterioration and expansion of dryness and drought" in the Midwest, northwestern Ohio Valley and southern Great Plains, the drought monitor said.

That has left 1,016 counties in 26 states termed as natural disaster areas, the Department of Agriculture said this week.

A county is generally qualified as a natural disaster area if it has suffered severe drought for eight consecutive weeks. Farmers are then eligible for low interest emergency loans from the Department of Agriculture's Farm Service Agency.

The past 12 months have been the warmest the United States has experienced since records began in 1895, the climatic data center said.


====

This week, the US Department of Agriculture put aside its customary cheerleader uniform and pom-poms for sober black attire as it announced: “Persistent and extreme June dryness across the central and eastern corn belt and extreme late June and early July heat from the central Plains to the Ohio River Valley have substantially lowered yield prospects across most of the major growing regions.”

Really? You didn’t see that one coming? Anyone even look at the drought-prediction maps the global-warming cult has been putting out for a couple decades now?

And at that, after one of the largest ever one-month reductions in its corn-harvest estimate– they cut June’s estimate of the harvest by 1.8 billion (!) bushels — the USDA still sounds like a cockeyed optimist. It is still forecasting an average yield of 146 bushels per acre, even while reporting that only 40 per cent of the crop is in good condition as of Monday. A pessimist looking at that number might conclude that, hey, 60 per cent of the crop is in poor condition.

It could be worse. Much worse, and by next week. Right now, this week, the midwestern corn is pollinating, and if there is no rain this week — and none is forecast — the pollination will fail and the losses could be catastrophic. […]


http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/usda-reports-condition-of-corn-in-18-major-production-states-hurt-by-widespread-drought/2012/07/09/gJQAWGvyYW_story.html

Nationwide, the amount of corn rated good to excellent also is dropping, to 40 percent this week from 48 percent a week ago.

Corn surged 31 cents to $7.74 per bushel in afternoon trading.

The soybean crop is stressed too and worries that it will suffer drove prices to a new record on Monday. In morning trade, prices peaked at $16.79 per bushel before settling back down to close at $16.65, up 45 cents.

The USDA reported that 27 percent of soybeans were in poor or very poor condition in the 18 states were most are grown. It was 22 percent a week earlier.

Only 40 percent of the soybean crop was in good or excellent condition, down from 45 percent a week earlier.

-t

[tangent4ronpaul]

The situation is worse than the media is letting on. A lot worse! As noted in the above post, the next 30 days will tell how bad the food shortages will be. The grain reserves are running out. Ponder food riots. TSHTF could be in as little as a month. It all depends on the weather, and the forcast is dismal. This will get worse. Figure that you have a month to brace for impact if things go really SOUTH!

Wheat is expected to be a bumper crop in some reports, but futures are spiking. Why?

There have been reports for several years of gvmt agencies buying massive quantities of food storage and ammo, thus creating shortages and driving up costs. Think about this. It could be this year.

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/what-happens-if-record-heat-and-crippling-drought-cause-widespread-crop-failures-throughout-the-united-states

What Happens If Record Heat And Crippling Drought Cause Widespread Crop Failures Throughout The United States?

It is too early to panic, but if there is not a major change in the weather very soon we could be looking at widespread crop failures throughout the United States this summer. Record heat and crippling drought are absolutely devastating crops from coast to coast. Unfortunately, this unprecedented heat wave just continues to keep going and record high temperatures continue to scorch much of the central United States. In fact, more than 2,000 record high temperatures have been matched or broken in the past week alone. Not only that, but the lack of rainfall nationally has caused drought conditions from coast to coast. If temperatures continue to stay this high and we don't start seeing more rain, farmers and ranchers all over the nation are going to be absolutely devastated. So what happens if we do see widespread crop failures throughout the United States? That is a question that is frightening to think about.

Right now is an absolutely crucial period for corn. It is time for pollination and rainfall is desperately needed. The following is from an article recently posted on agweb.com....


With some parts of Indiana now nearing a month without significant rainfall and the critical pollination phase of corn either already started or about to begin, large crop losses appear likely for some farmers.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture had been expecting a record corn harvest this year, but now the outlook is rapidly changing. The Department of Agriculture now says that 22 percent of all U.S. corn fields are in poor condition, and that number could rise significantly unless current weather patterns change.

Sadly, the corn in some areas of the country may already have been permanently damaged according to the Washington Post...


Some growers are already reporting damage to corn, which is at a critical pollination stage. In some areas, the corn already has been damaged to the point that rain may not be enough to salvage the crop, Telvent DTN analyst John Sanow said.

He and other analysts have lowered their yield estimates to an average of about 150 bushels per acre or less. That compares with the U.S. Agriculture Department’s June estimate of 166 bushels per acre.

Meanwhile, corn supplies are dropping at a rate not seen in many years. The following is from croplife.com....


Corn supplies in the U.S. are declining at the fastest pace since 1996 as a Midwest heat wave damages the world's largest harvest for a third consecutive year.

Bloomberg News reports that stockpiles were probably 3.168 billion bushels (80.47 million metric tons) on June 1, 47% less than on March 1

So what does all of this mean?

It means that food prices are going to rise.

Over the last month, the price of corn is up about 27 percent.

The price of wheat is also soaring. The price of September wheat is up about 26 percent since the beginning of June.

So is there hope that things can be turned around?

Unfortunately, things look quite bleak at this point. According to the Washington Post, the outlook for the rest of the growing season is very ominous....


“Based on the drought outlook, the potential for further degradation is very high, and the potential to reach exceptional levels of drought — where there are major crop failures — is very high,” said Matthew Rosencrans, a Weather Service meteorologist. “The climate signals we are looking at right now don’t correlate with wetness in that region.”

Jay Armstrong, owner and operator of Armstong Farms in Kansas, flew his small plane over a portion of the affected area and landed with the impression that the potential damage is far worse than is commonly understood.

“At this time of year, when you look down in a place like Indiana or Illinois, you should see just lush green fields,” Armstrong said. “I saw bare soil. I just thought to myself, the market has no idea what’s coming.”

Those are frightening words.

Nobody wants to hear about the possibility of "major crop failures" or that "the market has no ideas what's coming".

Ranchers are being absolutely devastated by this hot, dry weather as well. The following comes from a comment that was posted on one of my recent articles by a reader identified as Cinderella Man who works in the business....


As of 6/27/12 at the Torrington WY auction 2,248 head sold in one day. Usually only a couple hundred sell at a time. Whats happening is the ranchers are trying to sell when the price is high, and they know that hay is going to be expensive in the fall. We already see ranchers from WY coming up here looking for hay. Let me put it to you this way: Last night I went with my Dad to his hayfield and he said he would be lucky if he got a third of the hay he got last year! Second I work in the feed and mineral supply business and I have seen grain feed sales through the roof. Same goes for mineral and lactation supplements. The other day a Hutterite colony bought 25 tons of grain distillers to feed their sheep. Everywhere south of us is dry and we are catching up. People are scrambling to find corn and my elevator is one of the last places that have it. Going back to the minerals and supplements the cows are on poor grass and they have baby calves to feed. They go dry and cant produce milk for them so a rancher has to buy minerals and supplements to get the mama cow to produce milk. Sales have been soaring. You add it all up and you can only come up with the conclusion that we are in SERIOUS TROUBLE this year and I dont know how small producers like my family are going to weather this. All I can say is the ones who were in glee at Texas’s plight last year and crying in their beers right now.

If this continues, we won't just see corn and wheat become much more expensive.

We will also see the price of meat go through the roof as well.

This is not welcome news at a time when the economy is already in really bad shape and millions of families are barely making it from month to month.

So what do you think about all of this? Do you live in an area of the country that has been affected by this weather? What do you think will happen if we see widespread crop failures throughout the United States?

Please feel free to post a comment with your thoughts below....

Selected comments:

This drought is not a punishment from God its just a bad year in the middle of a depression. (think dust bowl) Thank you Michael for mentioning me in this article its far worse than anyone can imagine. Ive ever seen anyone buy that much corn distillers in the summer. Enjoy your burgers they might be your last!

==

Michael, I was hoping you would lay it all out for me, how the drought and all the fires might affect the economy especially since our economy is doing so poorly already.
I am rather sad today. Actually, I have been the past few days really. Big time farmers and crops aren’t the only ones being affected. I lost one hen to the heat. I went to pick blackberries either yesterday or the day before. All the branches were dead, the berries shriveled or completely dried out, and I could smell them. They smelled just like they do when you’re cooking them on the stove. I lost 14 fertilized eggs under my broody, and the one chick that hatched yesterday died this morning. People are telling me I likely lost all those chicks to the heat. :(
My hen, all my babies, and all the jam that will never be. :((

==

So sorry for your loss. There were 5 baby bluebirds in a nesting box that died from the heat on my property. I have pregnant bunnies that i am keeping a close watch on.

==

This is just one example why you should store food. We have been grinding wheat for 30 years and the product we end up with is much better that white flour. This morning we cooked for 110 people for a 4th of July breakfast at Church and the whole white wheat pancakes were way better than the white flour buttermilk mix. 2 cups of whole wheat flour, 2 cups of buttermilk, 1 egg, 1 teaspoon of baking soda and 1 teaspoon of oil as it helps to keep them from sticking. We are still using wheat that has been stored since 1974 and it is still perfect. We ground up the flour yesterday. We have to buy hard wheat since I can’t grow it here where we live. You can save a lot of money if you buy your food storage while the price is lower and you have food security for your family and friends. The cost of wheat a couple of years age was around $5.50 for 25 pounds and today it is over $11 for the same bag. Who knows how much higher the price will go. The nice thing about storing whole wheat is that you can store it for such a long time under the right conditions. It is also good for you.

==

Try $13.50 for a 25lb bag of wheat. (sigh) I do store and grind my own too.

Point is, you’ll get more value out of your dollar now if it is invested in tangible things….our storage items and a paid-for home. Also gold and silver.

==

It goes beyond a price hike in the cost of corn on the cob. What do many cattle eat for feed? Corn products. (They are supposed to eat grass, but that’s another story. Ahem.)

What do pigs eat? Corn products? And chickens? Corn products.
Meat prices will be going up in the next few months.

==

The price of corn going up means the price of groceries will go up and the price of livestock feed will go up hence meat prices will go up……that’s why what is happening to corn is so important.
BTW I planted 100 lbs of potatoes this spring and the plants look just as pathetic in the field as my corn patch.

==

There are a bunch of links in the blog post and other good comments. Chech the link/site out!!!

-t

[Uncle Emanuel Watkins]

Check out the crop comments on this big agriculture website. Not looking good at all for midwestern (and other parts of the country) farms, particularly the more recent reports. Expect food prices to rise substantially in the very near future, especially if this weather keeps up.

http://www.agweb.com/blog/Crop_Comments_137/july_crop_comments_2012/

Here's a few select reports:

7/4 - Winnebago County, Wis.: Had rain last night, too bad the hail and high winds came with it. In some fields, the corn is flat. We should be thankful high grain prices will make up for yield loss.

7/6 - Crawford County, Ill.: We have a whole lot of 0's here. Most corn cooked weeks ago. This corn was planted May 12. No rain since planting.
http://www.agweb.com/assets/1/6/MainFCKEditorDimension/7-6-12%20IL%20drought%20corn.jpg

7/9 - Marshall County, Iowa: Light soils are gone. The corn has been trying to tassel for 10 days. Everything has almost stopped growing. We have water hemp in the beans that nothing will kill. Our broker says they might take two or three bushels off the national corn yield. I think I need a new broker.

7/9 - Williams County, Ohio: Still very dry and corn starting to die. Beans still have chance at 15-20 bu if it rains soon. We thought we planted corn but looks like tobacco.

Some positive or decent reports but most are very bad.

The more the Internet spreads its World Wide Web like a swarm of locusts infesting and blighting the whole face of the earth, the more oddities never happened when, well, they always did.

[tangent4ronpaul]

bump

[oyarde]

Gets worse , drought projected through sept 30 , means beans are toast too.

[tangent4ronpaul]

blimp!

[Natural Citizen]

You folks should take some time and research the existing patents relative to weather modification. Really. Oh and then there is this old thing.... The 'Monsanto Rider': Are Biotech Companies About to Gain Immunity from Federal Law? (http://www.alternet.org/food/156195/The_'Monsanto_Rider'%3A_Are_Biotech_Companies_Abou t_to_Gain_Immunity_from_Federal_Law%3F/) http://www.unexplained-mysteries.com/forum/uploads/av-71692.gif

[oyarde]

//

[psi2941]

Michigan is getting hit really bad, my blue berry corps are producing small berries and three or four brushes just plane out died, just turned orange. our well was not designed for agriculture use, but since this drought, our well pump (for our house) has been running 24/7, multiple garden hoses are being used to supply the berries.

as for the other farms, yea all of Michigan apples, chestnut and cherry has been wiped out but they knew they were wiped out in march of this year.