PDA

View Full Version : Ron Paul's Delegate Count: Doing the Math




George Dance
06-21-2012, 09:27 AM
I posted a new article on the Paul campaign on Nolan Chart yesterday, which I hope the readers here would love to see. I'd also appreciate any and all updates aand corrections to the figures:

Ron Paul's Delegate Count: Doing the Math
Ron Paul claims to have nearly 200 national Delegates. How accurate is that claim?
by George Dance
(libertarian)
Wednesday, June 20, 2012

In a June mailing to supporters, Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul claimed that, "Due to the smart planning of our campaign and the hard work and diligence of supporters like you, we stand to send nearly 200 bound delegates to the Republican National Convention in Tampa. This number shatters the predictions of the pundits and talking heads and shows the seriousness of our movement. at the Tampa convention.[...]

"What’s more," Paul added, "we will send several hundred additional supporters to Tampa who, while bound to [presumptive nominee Mitt] Romney, believe in our ideas of liberty, constitutional government, and a common-sense foreign policy. When it is all said and done, we will likely have as many as 500 supporters as delegates on the convention floor."(1)

Some ‘pundits and talking heads’ were incredulous. For instance, the New York Times remarked that Paul "is encouraging his supporters with delegate estimates that veer toward liberal." Declared the Times: "According to the Associated Press, Mr. Paul currently has 137 bound delegates, behind Newt Gingrich."(2)

The Austin American-Statesman, in its PolitiFact Texas column, rated Paul’s claim as "Mostly False." As proof, the paper also cited Associated Press (AP) and its 137-Delegates figure. "It could be, we suppose,’‘ said the writer, "that Paul picks up enough yet-to-be determined delegates to have nearly 200 delegates at the convention. However, it also seems unlikely Paul could have known as much for a certainty when he sent his message.... Paul had 137 delegates when he wrote supporters about shattering predictions. We rate his statement Mostly False."(1)

Read the rest: http://www.nolanchart.com/article9692-ron-pauls-delegate-count-doing-the-math.html

Kirdneh
06-21-2012, 11:02 AM
Well, my app GOP Unbound (http://bit.ly/gopunbound) is reporting the 500-delegates-target for months now.
It is purely twitter based and estimated Ron Paul supporters at Tampa between 400 and 600 over the past 4 months. Current figure is 520.

While some predicted 200-300 we already had it right for some time now. The other possibility could be that Ron Paul derives his '500' figure from my app...

Everyone who downloaded it, had these precise numbers at hand for a while now, while others still dreamed of majority or were stuck below 300.