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jbauer
05-29-2012, 09:07 AM
Just in time for Obama to claim the jobless number is down!!! Go economy!!!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47594218/ns/business-us_business/

Hundreds of thousands of out-of-work Americans are receiving their final unemployment checks sooner than they expected, even though Congress renewed extended benefits until the end of the year.

The checks are stopping for the people who have the most difficulty finding work: the long-term unemployed. More than five million people have been out of work for longer than half a year. Federal benefit extensions, which supplemented state funds for payments up to 99 weeks, were intended to tide over the unemployed until the job market improved.

In February, when the program was set to expire, Congress renewed it, but also phased in a reduction of the number of weeks of extended aid and effectively made it more difficult for states to qualify for the maximum aid. Since then, the jobless in 23 states have lost up to five months’ worth of benefits.
Out of benefits even as job picture improves
Next month, an additional 70,000 people will lose benefits earlier than they presumed, bringing the number of people cut off prematurely this year to close to half a million, according to the National Employment Law Project. That estimate does not include people who simply exhausted the weeks of benefits they were entitled to.

Separate from the Congressional action, some states are making it harder to qualify for the first few months of benefits, which are covered by taxes on employers. Florida, where the jobless rate is 8.7 percent, has cut the number of weeks it will pay and changed its application procedures, with more than half of all applicants now being denied.

The federal extension of jobless benefits has been a contentious issue in Washington. Republicans worry that it prolongs joblessness and say it has not kept the unemployment rate down, while Democrats argue that those out of work have few alternatives and that the checks are one of the most effective forms of stimulus, since most of it is spent immediately.

After the most recent compromise reached in February, another renewal seems unlikely.

The expiration of benefits is one factor contributing to what many economists refer to as a “fiscal cliff,” or a drag on the economy at the end of this year when tax cuts and recession-related spending measures will all come to an end unless Congress acts. The Congressional Budget Office warned last week that the combination could contribute to another recession next year.

Candace Falkner, 50, got her last unemployment check in mid-May, when extended benefits were curtailed in eight states. Since then she has applied for food stamps and begun a commission-only, door-to-door sales job. Since losing her job two years ago, Ms. Falkner said, she has earned a master’s degree in psychology and applied for work at numerous social service agencies as well as places like Walmart, but no offers came.
Jobless claims steady as labor market grows tepidly

Ms. Falkner, who lives on the outskirts of Chicago, said she was grateful for the checks she received. But when they ended, she said, “They should have had some program in place to funnel those people back into the job market. Not to just leave them out there cold, saying, ‘The job market has improved, but there’s still 60,000 people in the city who can’t find one.’ ”

Unemployment is lower than it was when the emergency unemployment extensions were ramped up in November 2009. Now, it is 8.1 percent, down from 9.9 percent then. But it is still far higher than pre-recession norms, and there are more than three job seekers for every opening.

Proponents of extended benefits say the cuts are premature. Chad Stone, the chief economist at the liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, said Congress had never before put the brakes on extended benefits when the labor market was so weak. “It’s moving in the wrong direction, and it’s occurring at a time when unemployment is very high,” he said.

Conservative economists and political leaders have argued that unemployment benefits prolong joblessness and simply transfer wealth from one area of the economy to another without contributing to growth.

Kevin A. Hassett, director of economic policy studies at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, said, “I haven’t liked the 99-week solution from the beginning because it creates an environment where people are subsidized to become a structural unemployment problem.”

Still, he is troubled by the latest developments. “If you just reduce the weeks of unemployment for people already unemployed but don’t do anything else, it’s a bad deal,” he said, “because they’re already about the worst-off people in society.”

He points to alternatives like using unemployment money to encourage entrepreneurship or paying benefits in a lump sum, rather than over time, to encourage people to find work faster.

Most states offer 26 weeks of unemployment benefits, plus the federal extensions that kicked in after the financial crash.

The number of extra weeks available by state is determined by several factors, including the state’s unemployment rate and whether it is higher than three years earlier. So states like California have had benefits cut even though the unemployment rate there is still almost 11 percent.

“Benefits have ended not because economic conditions have improved, but because they have not significantly deteriorated in the past three years,” Hannah Shaw, a researcher at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, wrote in a blog post. In May, an estimated 95,000 people lost benefits in California.
Flat jobless claims raise worries about job market
After the recession, 99 weeks became a symbol of the plight of the jobless, with those who exhausted their benefits calling themselves “99 weekers” or “99ers.” But by the end of September, the extended benefits will end in the last three states providing 99 weeks of assistance — Nevada, New Jersey and Rhode Island.

Some states have tightened eligibility as well. Nationwide, most people apply for benefits by phone. Last August, Florida began requiring people to apply online and to complete a 45-minute test to assess their job skills, according to a complaint submitted to the federal labor secretary by the National Employment Law Project and Florida Legal Services.


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The complaint said that applicants with limited Internet access or English skills, disabilities or difficulty reading had effectively been shut out, and that failure to complete the assessment was illegally being used to deny benefits. Denials have soared; now just over half of applicants are rejected. Nationally, 30 percent of applicants are rejected, according to the law project.

The changes have saved the state $2.7 million, according to James Miller, a spokesman for the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity. The state’s unemployment rate, he pointed out, has declined for 10 straight months. “The Department of Economic Opportunity provides accommodations to individuals with barriers to filing their claims,” he wrote in an e-mail. “D.E.O. welcomes any review and is certain that Florida’s statutory changes are in full compliance with federal law.”

The Labor Department is reviewing Florida’s unemployment program in response to multiple complaints, a spokesman said.

This story, "Extended federal unemployment benefits begin to wind down," originally appeared in The New York Times.

Brian4Liberty
05-29-2012, 12:13 PM
Classic. Stop counting them, and the problem goes away (for Obomba).

jbauer
05-29-2012, 12:28 PM
Well....

It does go "away" instead of collecting unemployment they collect food stamps and govt houseing. Its a great deal for americans. We have a lower unemployment number but still spend the same or more amount of money!!!

Zippyjuan
05-29-2012, 02:58 PM
Ending unemployment benefits does not necessarily remove somebody from being considered unemployed. To be counted in the work force you either need to be working or actively looking for work. Getting benefits or not is not a part of that formula. However, one condition for receiving unemployment benefits you also need to at least claim you are looking for work so if you are not actually looking losing your benefits removes a reason to lie about looking and saying that you were so that will remove some from the labor supply pool. On the other hand, losing the benefits may force them to get more serious about actually looking for work.

DamianTV
05-29-2012, 03:22 PM
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/states-federal-government-reduce-length-jobless-benefits-144413734.html


Hundreds of thousands of jobless Americans are losing their federal unemployment benefits earlier than they expected due to new rules passed in February that make it harder for states to qualify for extended jobless aid, the New York Times reports.

At the height of the recession, Congress passed a law to boost unemployment assistance to up to 99 weeks: The unemployed would receive federal money instead of state funds if they continued to be jobless past the traditional period of six months. In February, Congress extended this law, but added rules that would draw down the number of weeks the government would pay for, based on whether a state's jobless rate had decreased and other factors. Now, only three states still offer 99 weeks of assistance, and all three will stop doing so in September.

More than 5 million Americans have been out of work for more than six months, down from a high of more than 6 million two years ago. Supporters of extending benefits say they stimulate the economy and provide a crucial safety net for vulnerable workers, but those opposed say they discourage people from finding work.

Meanwhile, some states, independently of the federal government, have made it more difficult for people to receive jobless benefits. The National Employment Law Project (NELP), a nonprofit that advocates for more support for unemployed people, filed suit against Florida, saying it wrongfully denied people jobless benefits. The group says only 15 percent of eligible people are receiving unemployment assistance in the state, the lowest rate in the nation. This is due in part to a new law passed last year that requires unemployed people to take an online "skills test" before qualifying to receive the roughly $275 per week in benefits, the Miami Herald reported. The state's unemployment rate has fallen to 8.7 percent from 10.6 percent a year ago.


(there are a couple of embedded links I didnt copy over)

I guess the "Official Unemployment Rate" is about to go way down?

Lucille
05-29-2012, 04:24 PM
Republicans worry that it prolongs joblessness and say it has not kept the unemployment rate down, while Democrats argue that those out of work have few alternatives and that the checks are one of the most effective forms of stimulus, since most of it is spent immediately.
[...][
Conservative economists and political leaders have argued that unemployment benefits prolong joblessness and simply transfer wealth from one area of the economy to another without contributing to growth.

They're right, but they look like cold bastards whose interests are elsewhere to the American people when they continue to fund billions upon billions in warfare and welfare overseas.

Related:

High Unemployment Masked by Exploding Disability Claims that Lead to Permanently-Higher Government Spending (http://www.openmarket.org/2012/02/16/high-unemployment-masked-by-exploding-disability-claims-that-lead-to-permanently-higher-government-spending/)

Art Cashin Explains What Happens To Those Who Stop Looking For Work (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/art-cashin-explains-what-happens-those-who-stop-looking-work)

Two Charts Exposing America's Record Shadow Welfare State (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/two-charts-exposing-americas-record-shadow-welfare-state)


In total, more than five million people have been added to disability coverage since President Obama took over three years ago." The punchline will make all those who adore (insolvent) welfare states shake with giddy delight: "So look - either safety standards at work have eroded dramatically or the "99%" have found a creative way to milk the system and turn the economy into a quasi welfare state".... Yup. What he said. Because remember: the BLS assumes that any amount up to the total 53 million people, is not in the labor force as they have other "wefare" based forms of government handouts and see no need at all to look for a job. Is there any wonder why US unemployment is realistically 20% if not much higher? [...]

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/05/Welfare%20Shadow_0.png

Brian4Liberty
05-29-2012, 04:45 PM
Ending unemployment benefits does not necessarily remove somebody from being considered unemployed. To be counted in the work force you either need to be working or actively looking for work. Getting benefits or not is not a part of that formula. However, one condition for receiving unemployment benefits you also need to at least claim you are looking for work so if you are not actually looking losing your benefits removes a reason to lie about looking and saying that you were so that will remove some from the labor supply pool. On the other hand, losing the benefits may force them to get more serious about actually looking for work.

Depends on which statistic is being reported. And as usual, how do they determine who is looking for work?

kcchiefs6465
05-29-2012, 05:01 PM
Depends on which statistic is being reported. And as usual, how do they determine who is looking for work?
They can't. The actual number of what I consider to be "unemployed" (those without a job) is closer to 100,000,000 people. (give or take 5-7 million) RP commonly quotes the number at 19-20% of population. I truly believe it is around 27-30 percent.

rockerrockstar
05-29-2012, 06:13 PM
I am unemployed and this does effect me. I am trying to find a job ASAP but could run out of benefits in the future. I have been out of work almost a year and am close to being out of extended benefits. Anyways, I just hope people find jobs. It has been difficult job market to find work in. Anyways, good luck to the unemployed people.

I agree with Ron Paul the unemployment numbers are really much higher.

I wish I could start my own business and make money but in my state they will not let you collect benefits while starting a business. Otherwise I would have tried to start a business on the internet or something. Anyways, it is difficult to start a business with no money too.

If they would have gave me my unemployment benefits in a lump sum in the beginning that may have helped. I can see that being a problem for those that don't budget well though. I also had an issue with my state not having the alternative base period calculation meaning even though I made enough money to qualify for benefits I had to wait several months tell the next quarter to qualify for benefits because they want 2.5 quarters of earning after they subtract your last quarter you earned. Anyways, having to wait really made me waste my savings that I was going to use to relocate for work.

I am trying to focus my effort in finding another job in my field because that will have the best pay off more than likely.

jbauer
05-29-2012, 07:41 PM
good luck, you might mention your field and location, networking is your friend

rockerrockstar
05-29-2012, 11:09 PM
good luck, you might mention your field and location, networking is your friend

I am a Mechanical Engineer and have a BSME. I have worked in automotive and aerospace engineering. Location Indianapolis Indiana.

angelatc
05-29-2012, 11:57 PM
Study after study indicates that people who on on the verge of losing their benefits are indeed statistically more likely to find a job. When we subsidize something, we get more of it.

rockerrockstar
05-30-2012, 09:31 AM
I feel my major problem was not having enough money to relocate back to Detroit where their are many more Automotive engineering jobs. Companies like to hire local people. Indianapolis does not have many engineering jobs compared to Detroit Metro.

Part of the problem with the situation we are in is that companies are trying to lower wages so much that many unemployed people are upset about it. Companies are trying to take advantage of them. Anyways, I believe that is the issue. When companies want to pay 20 K less some times 30K less than your previous jobs then people have issues with it. It is too big of a shock for many and that may be the reason they won't take anything tell they lose their benefits.

The other issue is that it is hard to relocate out of state for jobs when you are only living on unemployment benefits. You may want to take an out of state job but don't have the money to relocate. Or maybe you know a location where it would be easier to find a job but you just don't have the funds to go there.

Zippyjuan
05-30-2012, 11:08 AM
Depends on which statistic is being reported. And as usual, how do they determine who is looking for work?
They conduct telephone surveys with dozens of questions to thousands of people every month. If you are employed you are in the work force. If you are not working but actively looking for work, you are in the work force. Otherwise you are not considered in the work force. Unemployment is the percent of those not working but looking as a percent of the total work force. If you are not looking for work you are not counted in either number.

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

Because unemployment insurance records relate only to persons who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to actually count every unemployed person each month, the Government conducts a monthly sample survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940, when it began as a Work Projects Administration project. It has been expanded and modified several times since then. For instance, beginning in 1994, the CPS estimates reflect the results of a major redesign of the survey. (For more information on the CPS redesign, see Chapter 1, "Labor Force Data Derived from the Current Population Survey," in the BLS Handbook of Methods.)

There are about 60,000 households in the sample for this survey. This translates into approximately 110,000 individuals, a large sample compared to public opinion surveys which usually cover fewer than 2,000 people. The CPS sample is selected so as to be representative of the entire population of the United States. In order to select the sample, all of the counties and county-equivalent cities in the country first are grouped into 2,025 geographic areas (sampling units). The Census Bureau then designs and selects a sample consisting of 824 of these geographic areas to represent each State and the District of Columbia. The sample is a State-based design and reflects urban and rural areas, different types of industrial and farming areas, and the major geographic divisions of each State. (For a detailed explanation of CPS sampling methodology, see Chapter 1, of the BLS Handbook of Methods.)

Every month, one-fourth of the households in the sample are changed, so that no household is interviewed more than 4 consecutive months. This practice avoids placing too heavy a burden on the households selected for the sample. After a household is interviewed for 4 consecutive months, it leaves the sample for 8 months, and then is again interviewed for the same 4 calendar months a year later, before leaving the sample for good. This procedure results in approximately 75 percent of the sample remaining the same from month to month and 50 percent from year to year.

Zippyjuan
05-30-2012, 11:12 AM
I feel my major problem was not having enough money to relocate back to Detroit where their are many more Automotive engineering jobs. Companies like to hire local people. Indianapolis does not have many engineering jobs compared to Detroit Metro.

Part of the problem with the situation we are in is that companies are trying to lower wages so much that many unemployed people are upset about it. Companies are trying to take advantage of them. Anyways, I believe that is the issue. When companies want to pay 20 K less some times 30K less than your previous jobs then people have issues with it. It is too big of a shock for many and that may be the reason they won't take anything tell they lose their benefits.

The other issue is that it is hard to relocate out of state for jobs when you are only living on unemployment benefits. You may want to take an out of state job but don't have the money to relocate. Or maybe you know a location where it would be easier to find a job but you just don't have the funds to go there.

Lack of mobility is definately a big problem. It makes it harder for people to move from a place with few jobs to a place where more are available.

moostraks
05-30-2012, 11:28 AM
They conduct telephone surveys with dozens of questions to thousands of people every month. If you are employed you are in the work force. If you are not working but actively looking for work, you are in the work force. Otherwise you are not considered in the work force. Unemployment is the percent of those not working but looking as a percent of the total work force. If you are not looking for work you are not counted in either number.

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

How do they end up in the survey group? What if you are without a landline or does it phone survey cellphones as well? What if you are one of the lucky many that end up homeless and phoneless?

Zippyjuan
05-30-2012, 11:47 AM
It does not include everybody- that would be impossible and is also why the census is only conducted once a decade and not monthly but the sample is large enough that they can be 90% confident (confidence level) that it is fully representative of the population at large.

If you are interested in more detailed information, here is a link to the interviewer's manual: http://www.census.gov/cps/methodology/interviewers.html

It isn't just a couple of quick questions- the typical interview for the survey takes six minutes according to the BLS.

Brian4Liberty
05-30-2012, 11:54 AM
They conduct telephone surveys with dozens of questions to thousands of people every month. If you are employed you are in the work force. If you are not working but actively looking for work, you are in the work force. Otherwise you are not considered in the work force. Unemployment is the percent of those not working but looking as a percent of the total work force. If you are not looking for work you are not counted in either number.

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

That's one statistic. The one I hear most frequently on the news or especially the business channels is "initial claims" (and probably a four week average of those).

Brian4Liberty
05-30-2012, 11:55 AM
How do they end up in the survey group? What if you are without a landline or does it phone survey cellphones as well? What if you are one of the lucky many that end up homeless and phoneless?

Surveys can be skewed by bad or biased methodology...

Zippyjuan
05-30-2012, 12:13 PM
That's one statistic. The one I hear most frequently on the news or especially the business channels is "initial claims" (and probably a four week average of those).
"initial claims" is the number people who are filing for unemployment insurance for the first time- it is a measure of jobs lost. If this number is going up, more people are losing jobs. If it is going down, fewer jobs are being lost. If this number is higher than those who find jobs (job gains) (or give up looking) then the unemployment rate will rise. If this number is lower than the number of people who get jobs (or give up looking) then the unemployment rate will go down. If it is falling it indicates that the unemployment rate may go down in the future.

Tod
05-30-2012, 12:26 PM
I am unemployed and this does effect me. I am trying to find a job ASAP but could run out of benefits in the future. I have been out of work almost a year and am close to being out of extended benefits. Anyways, I just hope people find jobs. It has been difficult job market to find work in. Anyways, good luck to the unemployed people.

I agree with Ron Paul the unemployment numbers are really much higher.

I wish I could start my own business and make money but in my state they will not let you collect benefits while starting a business. Otherwise I would have tried to start a business on the internet or something. Anyways, it is difficult to start a business with no money too.

If they would have gave me my unemployment benefits in a lump sum in the beginning that may have helped. I can see that being a problem for those that don't budget well though. I also had an issue with my state not having the alternative base period calculation meaning even though I made enough money to qualify for benefits I had to wait several months tell the next quarter to qualify for benefits because they want 2.5 quarters of earning after they subtract your last quarter you earned. Anyways, having to wait really made me waste my savings that I was going to use to relocate for work.

I am trying to focus my effort in finding another job in my field because that will have the best pay off more than likely.

I was unemployed for the first time in my life several years ago. I briefly accepted unemployment compensation and did fulfill the minimum job search requirements for it, but meanwhile I was working feverishly to complete the setup for my business and I am now self-employed. It wasn't until the 3rd year that the business showed a profit (I had to work part time also to make ends meet), but this year I am finally able to go without the part-time work too. I did have to spend a little of my savings, but it wasn't too bad. My personal expenditures have plummeted: since I work from home, that helped a LOT.

A few weeks back, a guy I used to work with years ago and for whom I've done small jobs here and there over the years, called me up wanting to know if I could do some work for him but I had to tell him I didn't think I would be able to devote enough time to it to be fair to him. That feels good to be in that situation.

Unemployment benefits intentionally function to stifle the entrepreneurial spirit.

Zippyjuan
05-30-2012, 12:39 PM
If they would have gave me my unemployment benefits in a lump sum in the beginning that may have helped. I can see that being a problem for those that don't budget well though. I also had an issue with my state not having the alternative base period calculation meaning even though I made enough money to qualify for benefits I had to wait several months tell the next quarter to qualify for benefits because they want 2.5 quarters of earning after they subtract your last quarter you earned. Anyways, having to wait really made me waste my savings that I was going to use to relocate for work.


To be able to offer a lump sum would be to assume how long you would be out of work. I agree with your concern that most people would not be able to budget the money themselves very well either. I did hear one economist this week suggest offering somewhat higher benefits for a shorter period of time (though the time limits have been greatly extended during the current crisis) to give people a better option of moving to where jobs are or getting training.

AGRP
05-30-2012, 12:43 PM
Anyone else slightly confused with the heteronym in the title? :)