Official Oregon and Nebraska primary thread

[Ivash]

It seems like this board always has one of these threads every election night, and since there isn't one tonight I thought I'd have the honour of creating one.

Emails aside, Dr. Paul's campaign isn't over yet. Good luck in California and Texas, and good luck in Oregon and Nebraska tonight!

[Ivash]

DP

Currently it is 0% reporting in both states. Does anyone know when votes will start coming in?

[alucard13mmfmj]

seems most of us were caught up in this hellstorm that we forgot there are primaries going on lol.

[evandeck]

Romney- 75.74%
Santorum- 10.74%
Paul- 8.54%
Gingrich- 4.98%
http://electionresults.sos.ne.gov/resultsSW.aspx?text=Race&type=SW&map=CTY

[MarcusI]

Oregon is a vote-by-mail state, all letters must be in at 10 ET, so "the polls" aren't closed yet.

Nebraska polls closed at 9 ET, so we should get the first results in a few minutes. Anyone if they use vote machines in Nebraska?

[alucard13mmfmj]

Romney- 75.74%
Santorum- 10.74%
Paul- 8.54%
Gingrich- 4.98%
http://electionresults.sos.ne.gov/resultsSW.aspx?text=Race&type=SW&map=CTY

i know those are just initials.. but santorum beating us... fuking a

[Ivash]

Oregon is a vote-by-mail state, all letters must be in at 10 ET, so "the polls" aren't closed yet.

Nebraska polls closed at 9 ET, so we should get the first results in a few minutes. Anyone if they use vote machines in Nebraska?

I had no idea that Oregon was a vote-by-mail state. Any estimate on when we'll be getting results?

[Krzysztof Lesiak]

I was originally hoping for 15-20% in both states, but with Jesse Benton's brilliant white flag press release I guess he'll receive much less than that.

I hope he's at least able to eek past Frothy.

[cassielund99@gmail.com]

Remember people Nebraska is not by the vote. No votes are tied to the delegates. Remember its about the delegates. This is only a beauty contest. Like Missouri vote. The delegates are unbound till the state convention

[Krzysztof Lesiak]

Yea, yea delegates delegates. But does it really look good when we get 8% of the popular vote and then take half the delegates? Hell no. The public will just continue to be even more turned off to us.

[cassielund99@gmail.com]

Jessie Benton was sent to do a job. He did his job to perfection. Ron knows that Jessie was not much liked to begin with. We got the press we needed to fire up the grassroots.

[kathy88]

Yea, yea delegates delegates. But does it really look good when we get 8% of the popular vote and then take half the delegates? Hell no. The public will just continue to be even more turned off to us.Puck the Fublic.

[cassielund99@gmail.com]

Yea, yea delegates delegates. But does it really look good when we get 8% of the popular vote and then take half the delegates? Hell no. The public will just continue to be even more turned off to us.

Thats the point. Turn the public off from going after the delegates. That is where we come in and steal them.

[samsung1]

Nebrask grassroots must not give up! Please become delegates. You can still vote for ron at the comvention in tampa. Ron can still be the veep too

[lib3rtarian]

Just get the damn NE delegates, OK? We can worry about our table manners after August.

[romancito]

Soon some scientist will discover a voting gene and in it there will be a preference for those who lie to them with sweet words of self aggrandizement. The voting gene goes for the mystery candidate that will put them in the biggest predicament but will offer jobs to everyone.

[Drex]

Sorry for Nebraska in advance :( It's just a beauty contest though :)

[parocks]

Yea, yea delegates delegates. But does it really look good when we get 8% of the popular vote and then take half the delegates? Hell no. The public will just continue to be even more turned off to us.

What exactly is the problem with all of that?

We have had a delegate strategy for months now. We have a small dedicated fan base that will go to conventions. We're having a tough time beating candidates who are no longer in the race. It's got nothing to do with Benton. We saw it last week in IN, WV, NC. And I presume Ron Paul looked at the results in those states too.

[francisco]

Oregon is a vote-by-mail state, all letters must be in at 10 ET, so "the polls" aren't closed yet.

Nebraska polls closed at 9 ET, so we should get the first results in a few minutes. Anyone if they use vote machines in Nebraska?

Oregon polls close at 8PM local = 11PM Eastern. I live here.

[MarcusI]

Oregon polls close at 8PM local = 11PM Eastern. I live here.

Got confused with the time zones, you're right.

[MarcusI]

Nothing new with 64% reporting in NE:

Romney 71.5%
Santorum 13.5%
Paul 9.7%
Gingrich 5.3%

No real hope for a second place, but at least Paul is not actively campaigning any more, so one can spin that ist isn't as bad as in other states last week.

Four years ago, McCain won 87-13 against Paul in NE. Paul had about 17,000 votes, this year it will be slightly more I predict (Right now 12,777 with 66% reporting)

[alucard13mmfmj]

maybe its easier to secede from the union than to get 1st place in a beauty contest. lol

[Jackie Moon]

They just updated, 41% turnout for Republicans in Oregon. Lot of people dropping off at the last minute though, I was just there. So it might take awhile to get a full count.

With 1.5% in we're at:

Rick Santorum 824 8.83%
Ron Paul 1,083 11.60%
Newt Gingrich 630 6.75%
Mitt Romney 6,652 71.24%
Write-in Votes 148 1.59%

[KenInMontiMN]

The best way for the grassroots to make all the difference is to get off the damned primary election system altogether, that can't be stressed enough. Caucus and leave the result a mystery, in some cases even after the state conventions if some delegates hold their preferences close to the vest. That's what the country needs to nullify mass media, delegates in the primary states intent on returning to the unbound caucus. That's the reason why the nat campaign focused where it did and had to ignore mass-media states that bind their delegations. So if you're a MI supporter or a CA supporter, wishing the campaign was more supportive there, that's your direction going forward, more important than any other single task IMO... get back to the unbound caucus.

[evandeck]

I just noticed something. About a half hour ago, Gingrich was winning Stanton County Nebraska with 42 votes. Now it shows that he only has 18 votes. Error by AP?

[MarcusI]

Already 55.6% of precincts reporting in OR:

Romney 73.2%
Paul 12.2%
Santorum 9.1%
Gingrich 5.5%


4 years ago Mc Cain won against Paul 81-14. Paul got about 51,000 votes

[Ivash]

^Probably an error, yes.

[wetroof]

I just noticed something. About a half hour ago, Gingrich was winning Stanton County Nebraska with 42 votes. Now it shows that he only has 18 votes. Error by AP?

yes i've seen many errors like this as the votes goes up but they get corrected.

[Havax]

Looks like Oregon is going to be the first state Ron will get less votes in than he got in 2008 (51,000).

[lib3rtarian]

Looks like Oregon is going to be the first state Ron will get less votes in than he got in 2008 (51,000). There were others too. e.g. NY (40,113 in 2008 vs. 24,947 in 2012), PA (128,483 in 2008 vs. 105,356 in 2012).

[francisco]

I just noticed something. About a half hour ago, Gingrich was winning Stanton County Nebraska with 42 votes. Now it shows that he only has 18 votes. Error by AP?

Vote Flipping :rolleyes:

[MarcusI]

Ron Paul just surpassed his 2008 result in NE (17,647) with 96% reporting

[seawolf]

Percentages of votes for Ron are worse this year than in 2008 in both States. Yesterday's announcement must have had some negative effect.

[Jackie Moon]

Percentages of votes for Ron are worse this year than in 2008 in both States. Yesterday's announcement must have had some negative effect.

Maybe, but also in 2008 it was also only him and McCain on the ballot.

[ATXRevolutionary]

I seriously doubt yesterday's announcements had anything to do with the lower perecentage. We've seen in the past that it takes more than a few days for major news events to trickle down to the average voter to the point that they make an impact on the totals. I agree with Jackie Moon that it's simply because they're more candidates on the ballot this time around than there were in 2008.

[francisco]

I seriously doubt yesterday's announcements had anything to do with the lower perecentage. We've seen in the past that it takes more than a few days for major news events to trickle down to the average voter to the point that they make an impact on the totals. I agree with Jackie Moon that it's simply because they're more candidates on the ballot this time around than there were in 2008.

Agreed. Also, Oregon is all vote-by-mail and many if not most of the ballots had already been turned in before the first problematic campaign email on Monday.

[pebcak]

Nebraska here. I do know that yesterday's announcement had some negative impact on today. Regardless, it doesn't matter toward delegates. Be assured that the grassroots here is doing all it can to get delegates to the state and national conventions later this summer.

[Jackie Moon]

Yeah, the numbers in Oregon have stopped updating for awhile right at 34% of Republican ballots returned, which is how many had been returned by yesterday.

[sailingaway]

Nebraska here. I do know that yesterday's announcement had some negative impact on today. Regardless, it doesn't matter toward delegates. Be assured that the grassroots here is doing all it can to get delegates to the state and national conventions later this summer.

Go, grassroots!

[parocks]

Maybe, but also in 2008 it was also only him and McCain on the ballot.

this one

[juvanya]

i know those are just initials.. but santorum beating us... fuking aIf hes on the ballot and youre a supporter, why not vote for him.

You can tell who the tools are by comparing these results to real results and seeing what Romneys gain is. Those are the tools. Unfortunately, we dont have the two-way advantage we had in 2008 because S & G stayed in and got ballot access.

[MarcusI]

Oregon has no threshold, so Ron Paul will end up with 3 (maybe 4) bound delegates from this state.

By the way:

" If a delegate refuses to uphold the pledge, the delegation chairperson will report to the floor the vote total that is in accordance with the results of the primary (ORP Bylaws, Article XVII, Section B)."

http://frontloading.blogspot.de/2012/05/2012-republican-delegate-allocation_6813.html

[juvanya]

By the way:

" If a delegate refuses to uphold the pledge, the delegation chairperson will report to the floor the vote total that is in accordance with the results of the primary (ORP Bylaws, Article XVII, Section B)."

http://frontloading.blogspot.de/2012/05/2012-republican-delegate-allocation_6813.htmlDAMMIT