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View Full Version : We may already be WINNING the race. Here's why.




max
11-15-2007, 09:30 PM
keep this in mind....in primaries...the turnout rates are abyssmal..

people will tell a telephone interviewer that they will "likely" vote......but thats because they feel dutifully obligated as citizens.....

On primary day, turnout rates are only 20-25%...look it up

Our people will show up come hell or high water.....

The other candidates will have a problem. This is why we kick ass in post debate polls...

Their people wont even bother to text message so you think they'll get in a car and actually drive to their polling place?

Given the fracturing of the vote between those other clowns....if we hit 10% in the polls...we can win it all!

Example:

100 luke warm Rudy supporters = x 25% turnout = 25 votes
40 passionate Ron Paul supporters x 70% turnout = 28 votes

Not a scientific example but you get the point...So if we are at 6% nationally...WITHOUT CELL PHONES BEING SURVEYED.......Hmmmmm

We are already a lot closer than you might think...if we can kick our numbers up to just 15% it will be a rout!

Mark Rushmore
11-15-2007, 09:32 PM
If they were all open-type primaries I think we'd almost be in good position already, but it's a battle to make sure 'supporters' are also primary-eligible voters.

empirenine
11-15-2007, 09:32 PM
I would bet money on the fact that Ron Paul's supporters will have a better turnout than 70%. You can quote me on that.

max
11-15-2007, 09:34 PM
If they were all open-type primaries I think we'd almost be in good position already, but it's a battle to make sure 'supporters' are also primary-eligible voters.

yes...NJ will be a tough nut to crack....

but I feel real good about NH...the western states...and even the south

ross11988
11-15-2007, 09:34 PM
I would bet money on the fact that Ron Paul's supporters will have a better turnout than 70%. You can quote me on that.

God I wish 70% of my meetup members would actually respond to my welcome messages!

max
11-15-2007, 09:36 PM
I would bet money on the fact that Ron Paul's supporters will have a better turnout than 70%. You can quote me on that.

I think we'll be at 85% -90% myself.....but i kept the example conservative......

This turnout issue is our secret weapon...we'll be dragging friends and relatives out to vote at gunpoint!

Who else has that going for them???

AlexMerced
11-15-2007, 09:37 PM
let's just keep proceeding foward like we got lots to do, we don't want to get cocky, mobilize, mobilize.

max
11-15-2007, 09:38 PM
let's just keep proceeding foward like we got lots to do, we don't want to get cocky, mobilize, mobilize.

cockiness is dangerous..i agree...

but this issue is something we can use to inspire the "I like RP but he cant win crowd"....

brumans
11-15-2007, 09:39 PM
I think we'll be at 85% -90% myself.....but i kept the example conservative......

This turnout issue is our secret weapon...we'll be dragging friends and relatives out to vote at gunpoint!

Who else has that going for them???

Definitely. I got my mom, dad and sister who have NEVER voted in a primary to vote for Ron Paul.. and a few friends as well. I've never voted in a primary as well.. so.. we are obviously not being called for surveys.

AlexMerced
11-15-2007, 09:40 PM
that's what the straw polls and november 5th are for, I'm just saying, let's assume that only people who signed up will donate on the 16th, I think that's mentality that'll keep us working feverishly.

dircha
11-15-2007, 09:45 PM
While I would like to think that our supporters will turn out in greater numbers than our poll numbers indicate, I don't think we can be at all confident that we will be able to do this in large enough numbers to overcome trailing substantially in the polls.

We saw strong turnout in a number of party straw polls. Remember, overwhelming a straw poll takes 100 activists in your state. But overwhelming a primary will take hundreds of thousands of activists in your state.

I think we have more "hardcore" activists than many other candidates, but I don't think we have hundreds of thousands or millions more, and I believe those are the numbers we would need to overwhelm primaries and overcome substantial trailing in the polls. We need strong support among mainstream, average voters. The True Believers can't win this on their own.

The best strategy is to continue working hard, work harder, and not take anything for granted. We need to work this next month and a half like everything depends on it, because everything does.