What's the likelihood of Romney not winning on the first ballot?

[LawnWake]

And if this has already been answered, by all means link me the thread. People are saying that the delegate strategy is working, but this is only the case if we get passed the first ballot.

[sailingaway]

We won't know until the time comes.

Believe what you like.

[Elwar]

Ron Paul will win on the first ballot.

[TrishW]

Ron Paul will win on the first ballot.

I like the way you think!

[69360]

In all seriousness, it's too soon to say right now.

[Gray Fullbuster]

We may not win today, we may not win in August, we may not win in 2016, 2020, 2024, but we will prevail and our children will salute us.

[Bern]

Romney lost his soul to the Wall Street cabal a long time ago.

[Darguth]

We may not win today, we may not win in August, we may not win in 2016, 2020, 2024, but we will prevail and our children will salute us.

Depends on how you define "winning". I think we're winning right now, personally. The number of individuals just within my close circle of contacts that have opened their eyes to the message of liberty is amazing.

[DEGuy]

If you are looking for a crystal ball, Intrade might be a good place to start.

[S.Shorland]

Yes I think you are winning and as you are fighting for us in Britain by proxy,we are winning.

[smithtg]

the momentum has shifted greatly since newt and santorum are out. We have always been ready for this moment and now with more MSM stories on the delegate strategy I would say if it goes to a second vote Romney will lose

[CommonSense99]

..

[Algorres]

As the state conventions continue we should start to get a picture of how many delegates we end up with. Bound or unbound does not matter the sheer numbers do. Time will tell.

[ninepointfive]

We need to prevent him from receiving 1144 Delegates in total.

[Gray Fullbuster]

It's pretty much going to be down to the itty gritty, a hair, a sliver of a chance of preventing a first ballot Romney capture and we're only going to get that hole in the death star if we work our hardest and continue.

Then it's a shot in the dark, if Luke did it though, so can we.

[opinionatedfool]

As many rp delegates as possible should abstain on first vote (I know some states this may not work) or figure out how to get unbound before the convention.

[OrbitzXT]

I'm most afraid of the RNC cheating and preventing us from even having a chance. These people have displayed time and time again that they will cheat for the sake of their candidate of choice.

[NoOneButPaul]

I'd say about 10%

But it's still worth fighting for that 90.

[Jarg]

Real issue is paul needs to do more in the primarys's or main first votes...

If he does not get 40% or close in texas and california this race is over.

[Suzu]

It all depends on how many non-RP delegates receive a postcard like the one my friend Mike in Springfield suggests:
http://www.oddballcourt.com/img/stopo.jpg

[tbone717]

The results tonight should be an indicator of where Paul stands at this juncture. Given that the convention victories have gotten a decent amount of coverage in the media (Sunday it was the lead story on the Fox News radio report they play at the bottom of the hour here), and that turnout is expected to be low in all these states, we will be able to see if Paul has been able to capitalize on these successes and positioning himself as the means to block Romney from winning the nomination outright.

[Jarg]

The results tonight should be an indicator of where Paul stands at this juncture. Given that the convention victories have gotten a decent amount of coverage in the media (Sunday it was the lead story on the Fox News radio report they play at the bottom of the hour here), and that turnout is expected to be low in all these states, we will be able to see if Paul has been able to capitalize on these successes and positioning himself as the means to block Romney from winning the nomination outright.Did paul campagin in any states tonight or put in time there?

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

If anything happens to Romney between now and then - scandal, Romney drops out, a lawsuit with tempory order from a judge unbinding delegates due to cheating, etc, and it is all over.

[69360]

If anything happens to Romney between now and then - scandal, he drops out, a lawsuit cases a tempory order from a judge that unbinds delegates due to cheating, etc, and it is all over.

No it's not. Gingrich or Santorum would come back or a new candidate like Jeb would emerge.

[VictorB]

The way to measure it is based on how hard Romney tries to stop us, or how desperate he becomes. Romney has his internal numbers. If he thinks he's not going to make it on the 1st, then he will fight us tooth and nail for delegates.

He's already started to in Maine and Mass. That speaks volumes.

[SpiritOf1776_J4]

No it's not. Gingrich or Santorum would come back or a new candidate like Jeb would emerge.

In context to the subject of the title, it will be all over. Ron Paul could win on the first ballot.

[sailingaway]

The results tonight should be an indicator of where Paul stands at this juncture. Given that the convention victories have gotten a decent amount of coverage in the media (Sunday it was the lead story on the Fox News radio report they play at the bottom of the hour here), and that turnout is expected to be low in all these states, we will be able to see if Paul has been able to capitalize on these successes and positioning himself as the means to block Romney from winning the nomination outright.

it generally takes longer than that to percolate before a response occurs, but I hope it happens.

[sailingaway]

Did paul campagin in any states tonight or put in time there?

No, and he did in Ca and TX to some extent.

[Tyler_Durden]

the momentum has shifted greatly since newt and santorum are out. We have always been ready for this moment and now with more MSM stories on the delegate strategy I would say if it goes to a second vote Romney will lose

On a 2nd Vote, we can convince more of Romney's delegates on the floor to swing our way than they can swing us. we are entrenched and dedicated. Romney's delegates aren't.

[wgadget]

Neither Ron nor Romney campaigned in any of today's states.

[VictorB]

Neither Ron nor Romney campaigned in any of today's states.

I don't think Romney has been, or will go to TX or CA anytime soon. He will not campaign for upcoming states when he is already the "nominee" because it is a sign of weakness. People are going to say he's scared of RP.

[Jarg]

No, and he did in Ca and TX to some extent.Then if he loses he can only blame him self

[Barrex]

***FOLLOWING STATEMENT/JOKE IS NOT TO BE REPEATED, DISCUSSED,READ ALOUD, OR QUOTED***

We still got that "vote flipping" card. (if they would actually move, make some viable plan and executed it...)

[tbone717]

it generally takes longer than that to percolate before a response occurs, but I hope it happens.

True, but there has been a week since Newt official suspended, and really two weeks considering he announced he was going to suspend almost a week before he did. We will just have to see tonight if Paul benefits from being the only remaining challenger left in the race or if his numbers remain flat. I think the numbers to look for would be as follows:

NC: Romney's highest poll numbers came in late April at 48, but prior to that he was in the low 30's. Paul would want to keep Romney in the 30's and capture the state.
IN: That would have been Santorum's state if he stayed in the race. Can Paul capture the Santorum and Newt vote there and win the majority of votes?
WV: Romney has never been strong in WV, polling in the high teens. If Paul can keep Romney at that level he could walk away with 70% or more of the vote.

What will be concerning is if Romney wins these states by large margins, especially IN and WV which were never particularly favorable to him. Given that turnout should be low, Paul should be able to mobilize his support and the support of other anti-Romney voters to secure victories.

[tbone717]

I don't think Romney has been, or will go to TX or CA anytime soon. He will not campaign for upcoming states when he is already the "nominee" because it is a sign of weakness. People are going to say he's scared of RP.

This is correct. Romney was in MI today or yesterday I believe. It seems like that at the present time Romney will be focusing on the November battleground states instead of the remaining primary states. Paul does have an opportunity here. After tonight there are 11 states that will vote, it would be very smart for Paul to campaign heavily in those states presenting himself as the only means to prevent Romney from winning the nomination outright. I have seen on other sites that people are considering voting for Paul not because they want him to be the nominee, but because they want a do-over in Tampa.

[opinionatedfool]

I don't think Romney has been, or will go to TX or CA anytime soon. He will not campaign for upcoming states when he is already the "nominee" because it is a sign of weakness. People are going to say he's scared of RP.

He's been forced to focus on Obama, which is great.

[DEGuy]

True, but there has been a week since Newt official suspended, and really two weeks considering he announced he was going to suspend almost a week before he did. We will just have to see tonight if Paul benefits from being the only remaining challenger left in the race or if his numbers remain flat. I think the numbers to look for would be as follows:

NC: Romney's highest poll numbers came in late April at 48, but prior to that he was in the low 30's. Paul would want to keep Romney in the 30's and capture the state.
IN: That would have been Santorum's state if he stayed in the race. Can Paul capture the Santorum and Newt vote there and win the majority of votes?
WV: Romney has never been strong in WV, polling in the high teens. If Paul can keep Romney at that level he could walk away with 70% or more of the vote.

What will be concerning is if Romney wins these states by large margins, especially IN and WV which were never particularly favorable to him. Given that turnout should be low, Paul should be able to mobilize his support and the support of other anti-Romney voters to secure victories.

Judging by the 2008 numbers, Paul didn't break 8% in either of the three states voting today. Of course we are in a different situation now, but judging by performance this primary, I'd bet Paul doesn't get more than 20% in any of those states. Just trying to be realistic. I really do hope I'm wrong though, and that we have stronger grassroots in those states than last time.

BTW, where are the state-by-state polling results?

[opinionatedfool]

Then if he loses he can only blame him self

-

He's been spending a lot of time in CA and TX. There may be a strategy to it... As in, stay on the down low so that Romney doesn't bother campaigning. If Romney bots think he's already won, why would they bother showing up?

Maybe you are a Romney bot?

[wgadget]

Lol. So Romney's campaigning is restricted so he doesn't look weak. That is doubly true, because even when he DOES campaign he looks weak. In Ohio the crowd was small, and he deferred to Obama.

[wgadget]

This is correct. Romney was in MI today or yesterday I believe. It seems like that at the present time Romney will be focusing on the November battleground states instead of the remaining primary states. Paul does have an opportunity here. After tonight there are 11 states that will vote, it would be very smart for Paul to campaign heavily in those states presenting himself as the only means to prevent Romney from winning the nomination outright. I have seen on other sites that people are considering voting for Paul not because they want him to be the nominee, but because they want a do-over in Tampa.

Paul can also capitalize on goodwill by campaigning where Romney won't. Some states are funny that way..

[tbone717]

Judging by the 2008 numbers, Paul didn't break 8% in either of the three states voting today. Of course we are in a different situation now, but judging by performance this primary, I'd bet Paul doesn't get more than 20% in any of those states. Just trying to be realistic. I really do hope I'm wrong though, and that we have stronger grassroots in those states than last time.

BTW, where are the state-by-state polling results?

Polls are at realclearploitics, but they are old. Results tonight will be on the major news outlet sites and at http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results

[tbone717]

Paul can also capitalize on goodwill by campaigning where Romney won't. Some states are funny that way..

Agreed. NE's delegates are all unbound, so the convention strategy can be employed here successfully. Winning the primary means nothing, but there can be some momentum obviously gained from it. Oregon would be a relatively easy state to campaign in since the population is somewhat centralized. (see the map here (http://www.worldofmaps.net/uploads/pics/karte-bevoelkerungsdichte-oregon.png))

KY and AR are right next to each other, so Paul can make camp in Bowling Green and hit all the major stops in both states with ease.

TX is all by itself on the calendar, so after AR & KY he could have a full week in TX hitting every major city.

The tough stretch is the Jun 5 states (CA, NJ, SD, MT, NM). There is no practical way to hit all those cities, but they can cross that bridge when and if they come to it.

[MarcusI]

True, but there has been a week since Newt official suspended, and really two weeks considering he announced he was going to suspend almost a week before he did. We will just have to see tonight if Paul benefits from being the only remaining challenger left in the race or if his numbers remain flat. I think the numbers to look for would be as follows:

NC: Romney's highest poll numbers came in late April at 48, but prior to that he was in the low 30's. Paul would want to keep Romney in the 30's and capture the state.
IN: That would have been Santorum's state if he stayed in the race. Can Paul capture the Santorum and Newt vote there and win the majority of votes?
WV: Romney has never been strong in WV, polling in the high teens. If Paul can keep Romney at that level he could walk away with 70% or more of the vote.

What will be concerning is if Romney wins these states by large margins, especially IN and WV which were never particularly favorable to him. Given that turnout should be low, Paul should be able to mobilize his support and the support of other anti-Romney voters to secure victories.

Oh my goodness. Dont make yourself so much illusions, or it will be a very bad night for you...

For Paul everything over 20% would be good, and if Romney would be under 50% in any state it would be a huge night.

[Liberty74]

We need to prevent him from receiving 1144 Delegates in total.

The only way to accomplish that task is to win the vast majority of the remaining states. I mean actually win the popular vote. If Romney continues to rack up states, he will easily get to 1144. We can't do the 60/40 deal like in VA where we only received 3 delegates. We have to WIN. That will stop Romney immediately.

[Jarg]

-

He's been spending a lot of time in CA and TX. There may be a strategy to it... As in, stay on the down low so that Romney doesn't bother campaigning. If Romney bots think he's already won, why would they bother showing up?

Maybe you are a Romney bot?
Dissagree one thing paul does be called romney bot....

To many overly defensive paul bots here.

[flynn]

We may not win today, we may not win in August, we may not win in 2016, 2020, 2024, but we will prevail and our children will salute us.

You should know in 2016, people between 18 to 35 are the largest voting block in the U.S.

[Karsten]

We may not win today, we may not win in August, we may not win in 2016, 2020, 2024, but we will prevail and our children will salute us.
Considering that in 2008, no one knew who RP was, and this year RP got ever so close from winning game changing first contests like Ames Straw poll, Iowa Caucus and NH primary -- and that now we have RP people taking over key early states at the conventions... I think our odds for 2016 are VERY high for Rand, even if the polls (it's 4 years away) don't show it yet.

[Jovan Galtic]

http://www.metacafe.com/watch/627199/nothing_is_impossible/

[DamianTV]

Ron Paul will win on the first ballot.

We're going to win. What I think is holding us back is how we phrase that we are going to win. Romney's campaign markets stuff like "make no mistake of who the Republican Nominee will be". Our statements are a little more realistic. So just replace Robama with Ron Paul. Thats right. It WILL be Ron Paul! Dont even worry about Bound Delegates, because there is quite a bit of stuff that indicate that Bound Delegates will be a Non Issue.

WE WILL SECURE THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION FOR RON PAUL!

[dancjm]

Can someone explain to me what this means?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=grg1mPJ_DFQ

[gerryb]

The only way to accomplish that task is to win the vast majority of the remaining states. I mean actually win the popular vote. If Romney continues to rack up states, he will easily get to 1144. We can't do the 60/40 deal like in VA where we only received 3 delegates. We have to WIN. That will stop Romney immediately.

We've taken a majority of the delegates chosen out of VA so far...

[Eisenhower]

Romney WILL garner the most votes on the first ballot, but will not have enough to win. This will go past the first ballot most definitely.

[S.Shorland]

You mean a 'Mitt-Wit'?
-

He's been spending a lot of time in CA and TX. There may be a strategy to it... As in, stay on the down low so that Romney doesn't bother campaigning. If Romney bots think he's already won, why would they bother showing up?

Maybe you are a Romney bot?