How Much Leverage Does Ron Paul Still Have?

[Uriah]

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2012/05/question-time-how-much-leverage-does.html

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Question Time: How Much Leverage Does Ron Paul Still Have?
The above is not the question that FHQ specifically received, but neatly encapsulates the breadth and depth of the questions that have rolled into either the comments section or my inbox concerning the Ron Paul campaign's continued efforts to amass delegates to the Republican National Convention in Tampa. As opposed to answering them one by one, I figured that I would take a step back and provide an overview of where the so-called delegate strategy is and what if anything it is likely to yield Paul and/or his supporters before, during or after the August convention.

First of all, as far back as January 4 -- the day after the Iowa caucuses -- FHQ was expounding upon the the Paul strategy...

more at link above

[sailingaway]

I wouldn't post the whole article. If you like it we should reward the author by clicking on their site and make them want to produce more....

In any event it is interesting they said they should look to see if Romney counters Ron to see how much of a threat he perceives. My understanding is there were robocalls, stickers with delegates handed out, busrides and meals connected to the Mass delegate caucuses in the Congressional districts, and Ron won them in a landslide in any event. Pity they are bound to Romney first vote, but still gratifying.

[Uriah]

@sailingaway you're right, click link

[PaulSoHard]

Ron Paul has the final hand in this election season.

If he does lose at the convention and decides to run third party/independent, it would spell automatic doom for Mitt Romney. If he doesn't, well, Romney will still lose.

But I'm glad that he will get an opportunity to speak

[flynn]

Embarrassment maybe what the GOP needs one way or another. The important issue is uniting all of the supporters before and AFTER the primary to ensure future victories.

[Natural Citizen]

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2012/05/question-time-how-much-leverage-does.html

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Question Time: How Much Leverage Does Ron Paul Still Have?

What he leaves is a generation of critical thinkers who have been willing to listen and learn. Liberty is young again. That's more than leverage. It's Change by default..

[MarcusI]

Okay, if you didnt get it:

Romney-bound Paulistas CAN (!!) definitely ABSTAIN on the first ballot! I think this is the most intresting fact, that Professor Putnam, surely one of the most sophisticated experts on this, brought forward in this article!

Oh my goodness, watching this convention will be a lot of fun and somewhat thrilling...

As I understand him - though its not clear - Romney has to get 1144 even in case of abstaining delegate.

Most intersting parts:

"[...] That triggers the second part of the strategy: Paul-supportive but Romney-bound delegates abstaining on the first vote. This is a tricky maneuver, but not one that is prohibited by the Republican Party delegate selection rules. It does, however, run up against state-level delegate rules that in some cases legally bind delegates to a particular candidate through one or more ballots at the national convention. But that is uncharted waters in this process. [...]

A suspended campaign at that point is still a campaign that is active; active in terms of not having released its delegates. None of the candidates that have withdrawn from contention and have been allocated delegates (or bound delegates) has formally withdrawn from the race. Huntsman and Santorum have both suspended their campaigns which protects their delegates (...in most cases, but with exception). Gingrich appears to be doing the same.

There is the potential for a great deal of overlap between the delegates bound to other candidates and those that are Paul-supportive but bound to another candidate. But they are distinct enough from each other if only because in the event that they are ever released by the candidates to whom they have been bound they are free to unite behind Romney or join an effort to oppose the nomination. [...]

Are there enough of those "secret" Paul delegates to prevent Romney from getting to 1144 on the first ballot at the convention if they abstain? We don't and probably won't know with any level of certainty until sometime in June or even later. [...]

The roadblock to this being a more significant threat to Romney is Rule 37 regarding the procedure for roll call voting. Rule 37 gives a certain amount of power to the individual state delegation chairs. If the state delegation chairs see abstentions or the potential for abstentions, they are very likely to pass on their vote with the roll call progressing to the next state alphabetically. This is why the election of state delegation chairpeople is so important and why the reports that a Paul-aligned candidate in Colorado defeated Colorado Republican Party chair, Ryan Call, for the distinction are consequential. Passes are less likely to come from Paul-aligned delegation chairs than Romney or establishment-aligned chairs.

What is not clear in the RNC is rules on the roll call procedure is whether states can pass more than once if bound delegates do not vote in accordance with their "commitment". The rules indicate that no state can change votes until each state has had a second (post-pass) opportunity to vote. What is less clear is whether that constitutes a second ballot. FHQ's reading is that it would not. That is a secondary concern to the multiple pass question though. If the chairs from "problem state" delegations -- those with Paul-aligned but Romney-bound delegates threatening abstentions -- can pass more than once, then the roll call can quickly devolve into a feedback loop where the convention gets stuck. Again, that is embarrassing for the party and Romney. It is not a desired outcome.[...]"

[Uriah]

Okay, if you didnt get it:

Romney-bound Paulistas CAN (!!) definitely ABSTAIN on the first ballot! I think this is the most intresting fact, that Professor Putnam, surely one of the most sophisticated experts on this, brought forward in this article!

Oh my goodness, watching this convention will be a lot of fun and somewhat thrilling...

Greatly looking forward to it!

[J_White]

we should be prepared for this, because with all the shenanigans going on, if Paul delegates do abstain, I am sure the status quo party leaders would invoke or make new rules out of thin air to try to neutralize that.