Despite Romney being mathematically unable to get 1144 delegates today, Media fakes it

[Harry96]

MSNBC is pretending Romney would cross the delegate finish line if he gets them all today. That's what MSNBC is reporting on-screen. They also said that 231 delegates are at stake today. WTH?! That's nowhere near enough to put Romney over the top, even if he takes 100% of them.

[sailingaway]

Rince for the GOP has said after today they would consider Romney the 'presumptive nominee' (presumably assuming he wins but they didn't actually say that). I hope Ron gets enough delegates in chunks in those states to disturb that fantasy.

[zHorns]

Rince for the GOP has said after today they would consider Romney the 'presumptive nominee' (presumably assuming he wins but they didn't actually say that). I hope Ron gets enough delegates in chunks in those states to disturb that fantasy.

Funny thing is that they won't report on the delegate numbers, just that Romney won the straw poll, then the delegate numbers will reflect whatever image they want to project that the race is over Romney has the numbers or is close.

I would love for Paul to win a state today (popular vote), that would setup us up to be the alternative to Romney, likely removing Newt from the race but I'm not holding my breath.

[tbone717]

It is not good reporting unless it is explained. Theoretically Romney can lock it up today with big wins, but that is conditional upon the majority of Santorum and Gingrich delegates moving to him at the RNC. With Santorum suspending, and Gingrich not being able to be nominated, the assumption is that those delegates will be unbound. If you total them up they amount to 394 (using thegreenpapers pledged/unpledged summary). Add that total to Romney's pledged total (696), and yes he could have it clinched by the end of the day. However, that is of course conditional upon those other delegates moving his way.

If Paul can come through the day with a couple of big wins, then we do have a whole new race on our hands. But without Paul (or Newt) winning states today, the likelihood of keeping Romney under 1144 is almost nil.

[sailingaway]

They are trying to make sure Ron isn't thought to have a chance to force a brokered convention by Texas and Ca. Those are huge states and media is very expensive there, and it would be hard to fight countervailing opinion which they intend to manufacture.

[tbone717]

They are trying to make sure Ron isn't thought to have a chance to force a brokered convention by Texas and Ca. Those are huge states and media is very expensive there, and it would be hard to fight countervailing opinion which they intend to manufacture.

Agreed. By the end of the night, we will have a good idea of how many of the remaining delegates Paul will need to force a brokered convention

[Ivash]

It is not good reporting unless it is explained. Theoretically Romney can lock it up today with big wins, but that is conditional upon the majority of Santorum and Gingrich delegates moving to him at the RNC. With Santorum suspending, and Gingrich not being able to be nominated, the assumption is that those delegates will be unbound. If you total them up they amount to 394 (using thegreenpapers pledged/unpledged summary). Add that total to Romney's pledged total (696), and yes he could have it clinched by the end of the day. However, that is of course conditional upon those other delegates moving his way.

If Paul can come through the day with a couple of big wins, then we do have a whole new race on our hands. But without Paul (or Newt) winning states today, the likelihood of keeping Romney under 1144 is almost nil.

The total number of votes in these states will be extremely low, so that could change the dynamics of the elections a bit.

But, yes, if Newt or Paul won even one state it could upend things pretty significantly. It would be a major prestige loss to Romney, at the very least, and could actually reignite the nomination process going in to Texas and California.

If Romney sweeps, however, the election is probably over.

[DEGuy]

Don't forget about the Virginia primary when it was just Romney and Paul on the ballot, with Paul getting 40% of the vote. Romney supporters didn't turn out because they didn't think they needed to, and other voters leaned more towards Paul, so it ended up being a lot closer than what the media "predicted". I think we'll see something similar happening today in at least 2 out of the 5 states. At least we can be reasonably sure to get the majority of the anti-Romney vote.

[tbone717]

The total number of votes in these states will be extremely low, so that could change the dynamics of the elections a bit.

A lot of the turnout depends on the other races. In PA we have a Senate race that has gotten a lot of attention, there is also a competitive race for Auditor General, so turnout should be good here.

[csu1987]

The election wouldn't be over if romney only wins the popular vote.

[fatjohn]

Read somewhere that paul only focused on Rhode Island since that was the only proportional one. How are we there?

[csu1987]

The total number of votes in these states will be extremely low, so that could change the dynamics of the elections a bit.

But, yes, if Newt or Paul won even one state it could upend things pretty significantly. It would be a major prestige loss to Romney, at the very least, and could actually reignite the nomination process going in to Texas and California.

If Romney sweeps, however, the election is probably over.


http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTFFL_PdmqvLW3WwHlPlMneBfTktGKk1 PHBQxXilj1TYOQM-7zTwio4ReChng

Romney doesn't win all of the delegates if he wins the popular vote.

[Ivash]

Romney doesn't win all of the delegates if he wins the popular vote.

Absolutely true, but if Romney wins the popular vote he is likely to have A) increased his chance of claiming the delegates of the candidates who have dropped out, B) demoralized both Newt's and Paul's soft support, and C) gain most of the delegates anyways.

Regardless if Romney wins all the remaining primaries the GOP would walk over glass before letting someone who has won two (Newt) or one (Paul) take the nomination.

[Origanalist]

How to make freinds and influence people................



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Romney doesn't win all of the delegates if he wins the popular vote.

[sailingaway]

Read somewhere that paul only focused on Rhode Island since that was the only proportional one. How are we there?

You vote for delegates directly in PA and NY is also proportional, by district. Rhode Island we don't know, but you need to reach a threshold to get delegates and Ron was doing well enough to spend a little advertising money there as well as his trip there.

[Kodaddy]

I read somewhere (but can't seem to find it) that a candidate cannot drop out of the race as long as he has campaign debt, only suspend.
Can anyone verify this?

[sailingaway]

The total number of votes in these states will be extremely low, so that could change the dynamics of the elections a bit.

But, yes, if Newt or Paul won even one state it could upend things pretty significantly. It would be a major prestige loss to Romney, at the very least, and could actually reignite the nomination process going in to Texas and California.

If Romney sweeps, however, the election is probably over.

Not if we can convince conservatives in Ca and TX that a brokered convention in itself is a goal worth fighting for, to give conservatives more say over the direction of the party.

[kathy88]

They are trying to get everyone behind him so bad it's almost comical. Almost. No. Not really comical. Pathetic and sad?

[kathy88]

You vote for delegates directly in PA and NY is also proportional, by district. Rhode Island we don't know, but you need to reach a threshold to get delegates and Ron was doing well enough to spend a little advertising money there as well as his trip there.

Is there a threshhold of vote total for proportional? Anyone have a link to a list of the # from each district?

[Blue]

Boy I hope Ron can pull out a strong second in NY today.

When's the LA Caucus?

[69360]

I read somewhere (but can't seem to find it) that a candidate cannot drop out of the race as long as he has campaign debt, only suspend.
Can anyone verify this?

Yes, that's correct.

[Darthbrooklyn]

My wife called me to tell me she voted for Ron today.. She also said she was the only one there around Noon time... crazy low turnout..

[Jandrsn21]

Doesn't this help us if the media is calling this over for Romney. There people stay home thinking they have already won, our people go and vote knowing we are still in this. I mean I wouldn't count on this as a strategy to win it all, but hey I'll take all the help we can get!

[sailingaway]

Doesn't this help us if the media is calling this over for Romney. There people stay home thinking they have already won, our people go and vote knowing we are still in this. I mean I wouldn't count on this as a strategy to win it all, but hey I'll take all the help we can get!

It may help in PA but to win TX and CA votes need to think there is at least a chance of a brokered convention, imho. We might get districts without that, but we need some reporting, maybe a radio ad about Ron's delegate strategy working, how well he polls against Obama, etc.

[tbone717]

It may help in PA but to win TX and CA votes need to think there is at least a chance of a brokered convention, imho. We might get districts without that, but we need some reporting, maybe a radio ad about Ron's delegate strategy working, how well he polls against Obama, etc.

It is going to take more than CA and TX to forced a brokered convention though. If I remember the math correctly, if Paul or Newt doesn't walk away with a win or two today, then they would have to pretty much sweep all the remaining delegates to block Romney. Romney right now is sitting somewhere between 578 (his bound count) and 696 (his bound + pledged). With the 231 that are up for grabs today, he is going to be very close to clinching unless Paul or Newt win a couple of states, NY and CT obviously being the ones that we want Romney to fail in since they award the largest amount of bound delegates.