The Romney delegate number crunch (more precise than MSM estimates)!

[Massachusetts]

I put together some numbers while crunching 'em yesterday for you guys! If you want more information, feel free to ask. I've just included what I think is important in this post. Ron's not going to get 1144 delegates, but if we can stop Mitt from getting there the brokered convention is still possible.

Total delegates needed to win nomination: 1144
Romney Delegates: 683
Delegates Romney needs to wrap up nomination: 463
Bound delegates left in winner-take-all states: 132
Bound delegates left in proportional states: 349
Unbound delegates left in remaining states: 107
Delegates left in non-binding primary/caucus states: 89

*-becomes proportional if no candidate gets a majority (over 50%)
**-24/52 delegates already selected (12 went to Mitt)

Assuming Mitt wins all of the winner take all states and takes all of their bound delegates, he would still need to get 246 more delegates to reach 1144. I'm not sure exactly how each state proprtionally hands out their delegates, so I assume it's also very possible Mitt will fall short of 1144. This is assuming he wins all the winner take all states left. If Gingrich or Paul can steal one or two of those, that would be huge.

[Titus]

*AK is Alaska not Arkansas. This happens all the time. Arkansas is AR. AZ is Arizona (logical followup).

California is winner take all by district.

[eleganz]

+rep this is great

[Darguth]

NY : Winner-take-all by district, unless no candidate get's 20% (unlikely) in which case it's proportional for that district.

RI : Proportional by district, 15% threshold.

NC : Proportional state-wide, no threshold that I'm aware of.

OR : Proportional state-wide, 3.5% threshold.

KY : Proportional state-wide, 15% threshold.

AR : 12 of 36 proportional by district, majority takes all 3 otherwise splits 2-1 between top two vote-getters; 21 of 36 proportional statewide, 15% threshold to get 1 delegate, then anyone with a majority takes the remaining, if no one has majority the remaining are split proportionally.

TX : Proportional state-wide, 0.51% threshold.

SD : Proportional state-wide, 20% threshold.

NM : Proportional state-wide, 15% threshold.

That's according to The Green Papers at least, which is usually pretty accurate. I'd say that RI, OR, TX, and SD at least could be good for us. But that's pure speculation on my part.

[Massachusetts]

*AK is Alaska not Arkansas. This happens all the time. Arkansas is AR. AZ is Arizona (logical followup).

California is winner take all by district.

Thank you. My bad. But yeah, all around this is great news for us I think. Romney basically has to win everything that is left, and we can safely assume now that's not going to happen.

[Massachusetts]

NY : Winner-take-all by district, unless no candidate get's 20% (unlikely) in which case it's proportional for that district.

RI : Proportional by district, 15% threshold.

NC : Proportional state-wide, no threshold that I'm aware of.

OR : Proportional state-wide, 3.5% threshold.

KY : Proportional state-wide, 15% threshold.

AR : 12 of 36 proportional by district, majority takes all 3 otherwise splits 2-1 between top two vote-getters; 21 of 36 proportional statewide, 15% threshold to get 1 delegate, then anyone with a majority takes the remaining, if no one has majority the remaining are split proportionally.

TX : Proportional state-wide, 0.51% threshold.

SD : Proportional state-wide, 20% threshold.

NM : Proportional state-wide, 15% threshold.

That's according to The Green Papers at least, which is usually pretty accurate. I'd say that RI, OR, TX, and SD at least could be good for us. But that's pure speculation on my part.

Thanks for the update! I used The Green Papers to gather a bunch of this information.

[dntrpltt]

I've been sharing this link around lately to some of my Facebook friends and activists, but I'll share it again:

http://www.gop.com/index.php/comms/comments/updated_rnc_delegate_count/

This is the reported delegate count, as updated, straight from the RNC. They currently have Romney at only 336 delegates that are bound, and they do not allocate any of the unbound delegates (unless reported to them after conventions, etc.).

[Bern]

I thought Texas was proportional with 20% threshold.

http://www.fairvote.org/delegate-allocation-rules-in-2012-gop

[Bern]

I've been sharing this link around lately to some of my Facebook friends and activists, ...

That post is from March. They have a newer one posted in April and I suspect will post another in a week or two for May:

http://www.gop.com/index.php/comms/comments/updated_rnc_delegate_count1/

[PolicyReader]

Bound delegates left in winner-take-all states: 301 (CA, UT, DE, NJ, CT*)


You might want to update this line, California is "winner take all" in name only. Or to be more precise it is winner take all by congressional district so it's functionally closer to proportional than a true winner take all state like FL.

[tfurrh]

Forgive my ignorance, but how many delegates go to the Republican National Convention (total of all delegates), and could more than one candidate get above 1144 in their favor?

[Massachusetts]

You might want to update this line, California is "winner take all" in name only. Or to be more precise it is winner take all by congressional district so it's functionally closer to proportional than a true winner take all state like FL.

Fixed.

[Massachusetts]

Forgive my ignorance, but how many delegates go to the Republican National Convention (total of all delegates), and could more than one candidate get above 1144 in their favor?

Well, from what I've gathered, 2248. So it is not possible for two candidates to reach 1144. If one gets 1144 and the other gets 1104.

[tfurrh]

Well, from what I've gathered, 2248. So it is not possible for two candidates to reach 1144. If one gets 1144 and the other gets 1104.

Thank you.

[Titus]

Let's see here. What is left...

Romney needs 597. Supposing Romney gets all the winner take all (or winner take all by district), then Romney needs 296. To figure out the percentage of remaining delegates Romney would need, then divide 296/492*100 = 64 percent.

Giving Mitt Romney 30 more delegates to account for a low delegate count and any unbound delegates Romney may get means 266/492*100 = 55% (approximately)

Mitt Romney having 50 more delegates means Mitt Romney needs to pull a majority of the unbound delegates precisely.

Mitt Romney would get 217 more delegates if he stays near 44% of the vote (his usual amount before Santorum dropping). 296 - 217 = 79. We have to hold Mitt Romney to fewer than 79 delegates in the other (unbound/non-binding/error) categories assuming Romney takes every winner take all district and performs as well as he usually does.

[tsai3904]

This is very accurate:
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2012/04/race-to-1144-mn-mo-wy-conventions.html

The only thing that needs to be updated is Colorado's uncommitted delegates. Otherwise, it's spot on.

It shows Romney at 654 delegates, which includes the super delegates.

[Massachusetts]

Something else I found on my little paper trail that fascinated me is that Pennsylvania's delegates are all unbound! 72 of them! I know our troops are hard at work there, so let's stop Mitt!

[rb3b3]

oh man if ron can win one winner take all state, the msm will be on fire!!!!!!!! what do you think happens if ron wins a winner take all state? what does the msm do? do they continue to ignore him? or do they go all out assault on him and bash him every single chance they get? plzzzzzzzzzzzz let ron win !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Massachusetts]

oh man if ron can win one winner take all state, the msm will be on fire!!!!!!!! what do you think happens if ron wins a winner take all state? what does the msm do? do they continue to ignore him? or do they go all out assault on him and bash him every single chance they get? plzzzzzzzzzzzz let ron win !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I don't know what the numbers are in California, but if the youth votes turns out, then we have a shot there to make some headlines. Newt has a shot at Delaware too. I'm telling you guys, the proportional states are going to hurt Romney and help Paul & Gingrich and that is why those two are staying in the race.

[rb3b3]

I don't know what the numbers are in California, but if the youth votes turns out, then we have a shot there to make some headlines. Newt has a shot at Delaware too. I'm telling you guys, the proportional states are going to hurt Romney and help Paul & Gingrich and that is why those two are staying in the race.

so what do you think the msm will do if ron wins a state?

[PolicyReader]

NY & PA are going to be a big deal.
NY with it's 95 delegates becomes winner take all if someone gets +51% of the vote.
PA being a Loophole contest provides us with opportunities we'd otherwise lack outside of a caucus state and holds 72 delegates.

We need to cut into Romney in CA as well (which I've been saying since last year) the counts generally just assume he takes CA and if we can peel off delegates there it will give us breathing room. There are also a few chances to lower his current count but those may not happen so for now it's best not to include them (just mentioning so they're not completely forgotten.)

[RPit]

we don't need to win PA we just need those delegates to win. what we will be looking at is not ron's numbers but his delegates on the ballot.

[Massachusetts]

so what do you think the msm will do if ron wins a state?

Well, tomorrow if he wins a state there's no chance you can ignore it. However, they have ignored it in the past. He's won the plurality of delegates in Minnesota and Colorado, and won the popular vote in the Virgin Islands...and I haven't heard boo.

[PolicyReader]

we don't need to win PA we just need those delegates to win. what we will be looking at is not ron's numbers but his delegates on the ballot.
Agreed. Delegates = Winning.

[RPit]

btw aren't we just ignoring the delegates already awarded to other candidates that dropped out. if they go Rmoney its over.

[Titus]

Santorum hasn't released his delegates but his lack of endorsement and working with us, we might get them if they become unbound. The others have, at maximum, 10. Gingrich is still technically running so his delegates are bound too.

[Massachusetts]

btw aren't we just ignoring the delegates already awarded to other candidates that dropped out. if they go Rmoney its over.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8w_QEElNN6w
Here is a good explanation of what happens to those delegates.

Santorum's delegates are all bound to him because he suspended his campaign; he didn't drop out.

[Darguth]

Well, tomorrow if he wins a state there's no chance you can ignore it. However, they have ignored it in the past. He's won the plurality of delegates in Minnesota and Colorado, and won the popular vote in the Virgin Islands...and I haven't heard boo.

I think we did well in Colorado but I didn't think we got a plurality, do we have an official, accurate headcount? A lot of delegates were running unpledged but even if we dangerously assumed all of those are pro-Paul I still don't think we have a plurality.

[Liberty74]

I have already done the simple math. Romney only needs a 45% average of bound and unbound delegates left. With Santorum in the race, that was likely to happen. Now with him out, it will happen very soon as Ron nor our campaign has gone into attack mode against Romney. That's a telling sign...

We will end up winning 5 to 10 caucus states only after the delegate game is all counted.

Today on CNBC, Ron said he was staying in to support us and the work we have done. He hinted at the possibility that Romney could also slip and make a mistake. I will repeat again, we need an unforeseen event like a market collapse, economic collapse (Europe is getting closer), runaway inflation, etc. to wake the masses up to realize Ron is the right guy.

[Xenophage]

This is a liberal estimate of Romney's delegate count. Most states have not had their conventions, and some of those states will not only elect a ton of Ron Paul delegates but also unbind their delegates from the preference poll through a rules change.

Just wait.

And in those states that are still bound, they're going to be sending stealth Paul supporters as "bound" Romney delegates. We'll see how vote binding actually goes down at the national convention.

[Titus]

I will repeat again, we need an unforeseen event like a market collapse, economic collapse (Europe is getting closer), runaway inflation, etc. to wake the masses up to realize Ron is the right guy.

We should never hope for something bad to happen. We can win if we keep fighting the grassroots fight.

[Ninja Homer]

Delegates left in non-binding primary/caucus states: 89 (MO**, NE, MT)

There are 13 left in MN that will be decided at the state convention mid May.

[Massachusetts]

This is a liberal estimate of Romney's delegate count. Most states have not had their conventions, and some of those states will not only elect a ton of Ron Paul delegates but also unbind their delegates from the preference poll through a rules change.

Just wait.

And in those states that are still bound, they're going to be sending stealth Paul supporters as "bound" Romney delegates. We'll see how vote binding actually goes down at the national convention.

I know. But this is for the first vote.

[tbone717]

This is a liberal estimate of Romney's delegate count. Most states have not had their conventions, and some of those states will not only elect a ton of Ron Paul delegates but also unbind their delegates from the preference poll through a rules change.

Just wait.

And in those states that are still bound, they're going to be sending stealth Paul supporters as "bound" Romney delegates. We'll see how vote binding actually goes down at the national convention.

They will be bound. There is no way in hell a bunch of Paul supporters is going to overturn a 50 state primary where Romney has won the majority of contests, and potentially more than enough bound delegates to secure the nomination on the first ballot. Wake up from your dream, because there is no way that will ever happen.

I appreciate folks being optimistic about us still having a mathematical chance at this (albeit a very small one), or Paul delegates being at the RNC to have influence over the platform and VP selection, but spouting absolute delusion like you did in your post is detrimental to the morale and well being of this movement.

[seawolf]

For all of the comments and reasons mentioned in this thread, I sure hope the Campaign will sponsor an End of April Push Money Bomb.

[Massachusetts]

If you notice any mistakes, please let me know because I want everyone here to know the real numbers, not fabricated numbers!

[PolicyReader]

This is very accurate:
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2012/04/race-to-1144-mn-mo-wy-conventions.html

The only thing that needs to be updated is Colorado's uncommitted delegates. Otherwise, it's spot on.

It shows Romney at 654 delegates, which includes the super delegates.

This is a solid count. It is important to keep in mind that any delegate count is current until all results are final. The link included is a very accurate current count but even those accurate numbers may change until such time as they become final which is generally speaking not until after the final convention in their respective states.

[MatWhite]

Well, tomorrow if he wins a state there's no chance you can ignore it. However, they have ignored it in the past. He's won the plurality of delegates in Minnesota and Colorado, and won the popular vote in the Virgin Islands...and I haven't heard boo.

there was no popular vote in the virgin islands! Ron Paul, Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, you, me...etc..all received the same number of votes. Zero.

Ron Paul's delegates got more combined votes because Ron Paul supporters got to vote 6 times for them while Romney's supporters got to vote just 3 times. If you took the BEST NBA team and had them play the worst....and gave the worst team 4 points for any normal field goal, 6 points for a basket behind the arc, and 2 points for a free throw, the worst team would win EVERY time.

It would be nice to say he won..but it just isn't the case. In fact, the unpledged delegate that pledged to Romney after said he did so because it was obvious to everyone there (including the Ron Paul voters and delegates) that he was getting most of his votes from Romney voters who had no one else to pick with their 4th, 5th and 6th choice.

[tbone717]

there was no popular vote in the virgin islands! Ron Paul, Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, you, me...etc..all received the same number of votes. Zero.

This is correct. Here is the official ballot from the VI GOP website: http://vigop.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Official-Ballot-2012-Caucus.pdf

Votes are for delegates only, there is no straw poll in the VI like other caucus states. Paul's total of 112 comes from the fact that 112 votes were cast for his delegate candidates. The actual "winner" of the VI was "uncommitted" with 132 votes, since delegates that were on the ballot as "uncommitted" received a total of 132 votes.

Results are here: http://vigop.com/2012/03/vi-gop-2012-caucus-results-coming-soon/

[Liberty74]

We should never hope for something bad to happen. We can win if we keep fighting the grassroots fight.

Apparently many still do not understand politics. Politics is not about the grass roots although it can be an important vehicle to win.

Politics is all about herding. PERIOD!!! It has always been and will always be the case especially on a national level. Truth does not matter, rather perception will rule in the end. Don't believe me? 1) Republicans actually believe Mitt is a conservative and will reduce the size of government as he said in a campaign stop in PA. The truth? A progressive big government Republican that has no plan to cut anything from the budget. 2) Republicans believe Ron wants Iran to have a nuke that will threaten Israel and the world while dismantling our own military and defense. Is that truth? It's a LIE.

It's a fact that politics is about herding. Design a strategy around it. That is how you win. Politics is war. It's not about educating and being nice.

No one should hope for something bad to happen but natural unforeseen events can sway people. McCain and Palin were in the lead by 10 points after their convention in September. The market collapsed a few days later and those numbers reversed leading to Obama claiming the WH. In 2006 what happened during that election cycle that Democrats used to their advantage? An abortion doctor was murdered and the Democrats flipped that issue and won more seats because of it. They herded. That is the game unfortunately.

[jersdreams]

Wrong. Romney bounds:

New Hampshire 7
South Carolina 2
Florida 50
Nevada 14
Arizona 29
Michigan 16
Georgia 21
Idaho 32
Massachusetts 38
Ohio 38
Oklahoma 13
Tennessee 16
Vermont 9
Virginia 43
Kansas 7
Alabama 12
Hawaii 9
Mississippi 12
Puerto Rico 20
Illinois 42 (Directly elected Romney delegates)
Maryland 37
DC 16
Wisconsin 33
Louisiana 5
=521

Unbound delegates decidedly for Romney by all accounts:
Colorado 13
Wyoming 22
North Dakota 20
Guam 9
Northern Mariana Islands 6
Virgin Islands 7
American Samoa 9
Missouri 11
=97
521+97=618

32 super delegates

618+32=650 delegates

1144-650=494 delegates more needed to get the nomination on first ballot

Delegates not yet decided from previous contests (not including super delegates):
Iowa 25
New Hampshire 2 (Jon Huntsman delegates)
Colorado 17
Minnesota 15
Maine 21
Washington 40
Ohio 4 (Uncommitted)
Virgin Islands 1 (Uncommitted)
Illinois 12
Missouri 25
=162 delegates

Super Delegates Undecided/Unannounced:
71 (73 if you include Rick Santorum super delegates....)

162 + 71 = 233 delegates

Bound delegates remaining Proportional:
Connecticut (At Large) 10
New York (At Large) 34
Rhode Island (CD) 16
North Carolina 52
Oregon 25
Arkansas (At Large) 21
Arkansas (CD) 12
Kentucky (At Large) 24
Kentucky (CD) 18
Texas (At Large) 44
Texas (CD) 108
New Mexico 20
South Dakota 25
=409 proportional delegates remaining

Bound delegates remaining Winner-Take-All (CD COULD be fractured if no candidate wins all CDs in a given state):
Connecticut (CD) 15 (5 districts worth 3 each)
Delaware (At Large) 11
Delaware (CD) 3 (one worth 3)
New York (CD) 58 (29 districts worth 2 each)
Indiana (CD) 27 (9 districts worth 2 each)
California (At Large) 10
California (CD) 159 (53 districts worth 3 each)
New Jersey 47
Utah 37
= 105 At Large + 262 CD = 367 winner take all delegates

Unbound delegates remaining:
Pennsylvania (At Large-Direct Election of Delegates) 10
Pennsylvania (CD-Direct Election of Delegates) 59
Louisiana (Caucus) 25
Indiana (At Large) 16
West Virginia (At Large-Direct Election) 19
West Virginia (CD-Direct Election) 9
Nebraska (At Large) 23
Nebraska (CD) 9
Montana 23
= 193 unbound delegates remaining

=1202 delegates to be determined

Mitt needs 495 delegates more

495/1202 = 41.181% of remaining delegates

Assuming Mitt wins all the winner take all (at large delegates)

495-105= 390 delegates needed - (3 would have to win Connecticut's CD)= 387

He would obviously have to have won more CDs if he won the winner take all states...but question is how many.

387 delegates to win in that case with 71 super delegates remaining, 162 delegates that have yet to be decided from previous contests, 409 proportional delegates remaining, 193 unbound delegates, and 259 delegates from Winner take all congressional districts (53*3 CA, 29*2 NY, 9*2 IN, 5*3 CT).

387/1094=35% or so of the remaining delegates (assuming he wins the Winner Take all contests)

Say if he only took HALF of the winner take all CDs...that seems to be a low estimate at this point = 129 delegates

387-129= 258 delegates needed/835 remaining (proportional + unbound + super delegates + remaining undetermined delegates from previous contests)=31%

Say he only gets a THIRD of the remaining proportional delegates that are bound 409/3=136

258-136=122 delegates

122 delegates/426 (Super delegates + Unbound delegates + Undetermined delegates) = 29% of those delegates he would need.

Bottom of the line is this. To prevent him from winning, assuming he takes the winner take all states. He would have to get less than 35% of the winner take all CDs, superdelegates, unbound delegates, proportional delegates, and yet to be decided delegates remaining (assuming that NONE of santorum's delegates become unbound and none of his unbound delegates go to Romney).

The way Romney has shown in the post-Santorum polls...I don't know how likely that is.

[NoOneButPaul]

This is a liberal estimate of Romney's delegate count. Most states have not had their conventions, and some of those states will not only elect a ton of Ron Paul delegates but also unbind their delegates from the preference poll through a rules change.

Just wait.

And in those states that are still bound, they're going to be sending stealth Paul supporters as "bound" Romney delegates. We'll see how vote binding actually goes down at the national convention.

God I hope this happens... and I hope all of those stealth delegates end up abstaining on the 1st vote or something.

[jersdreams]

Romney Previous Delegates: 650

Tuesday Delegate:
Rhode Island 12
Connecticut 25
Delaware 17
New York 92 (one CD undecided so 3 more up for grabs)
Pennsylvania 10 (it says 11, but one of them is a super delegate according to green papers, we got 5....bunch more left up for grabs)

= 156

650 + 156 = 806 delegates, with 3 remaining in New York he could get....and the delegates in Pennsylvania, we just don't know....

1144-806= 338 more delegates needed

[Massachusetts]

I'll update the numbers for you folks as soon as possible.

[jersdreams]

I'll update the numbers for you folks as soon as possible.

I already did....and I'm not using unbound delegates at all, except for the ones confirmed for Romney at the conventions and super delegates.

[KEEF]

I'll update the numbers for you folks as soon as possible.

Thanks for keeping us updated.

[CTRattlesnake]

Will update my sig later

[jersdreams]

Wrong. Romney bounds:

New Hampshire 7
South Carolina 2
Florida 50
Nevada 14
Arizona 29
Michigan 16
Georgia 21
Idaho 32
Massachusetts 38
Ohio 38
Oklahoma 13
Tennessee 16
Vermont 9
Virginia 43
Kansas 7
Alabama 12
Hawaii 9
Mississippi 12
Puerto Rico 20
Illinois 42 (Directly elected Romney delegates)
Maryland 37
DC 16
Wisconsin 33
Louisiana 5
Connecticut 25
Rhode Island 12
Delaware 17
New York 92
=667

Unbound delegates decidedly for Romney by all accounts:
Colorado 13
Wyoming 22
North Dakota 20
Guam 9
Northern Mariana Islands 6
Virgin Islands 7
American Samoa 9
Missouri 11
Pennsylvania 10
=107
667+107=774

32 super delegates

774+32=806 delegates

1144-806=338 delegates more needed to get the nomination on first ballot

Delegates not yet decided from previous contests (not including super delegates):
Iowa 25
New Hampshire 2 (Jon Huntsman delegates)
Colorado 17
Minnesota 15
Maine 21
Washington 40
Ohio 4 (Uncommitted)
Virgin Islands 1 (Uncommitted)
Illinois 12
Missouri 25
Pennsylvania 49
New York 3
=214 delegates

Super Delegates Undecided/Unannounced:
71 (73 if you include Rick Santorum super delegates....)

214 + 71 = 285 delegates

Bound delegates remaining Proportional:
North Carolina 52
Oregon 25
Arkansas (At Large) 21
Arkansas (CD) 12
Kentucky (At Large) 24
Kentucky (CD) 18
Texas (At Large) 44
Texas (CD) 108
New Mexico 20
South Dakota 25
=349 proportional delegates remaining

Bound delegates remaining Winner-Take-All (CD COULD be fractured if no candidate wins all CDs in a given state):
Indiana (CD) 27 (9 districts worth 2 each)
California (At Large) 10
California (CD) 159 (53 districts worth 3 each)
New Jersey 47
Utah 37
= 94 At Large + 186 CD = 280 winner take all delegates

Unbound delegates remaining:
Louisiana (Caucus) 25
Indiana (At Large) 16
West Virginia (At Large-Direct Election) 19
West Virginia (CD-Direct Election) 9
Nebraska (At Large) 23
Nebraska (CD) 9
Montana 23
= 124 unbound delegates remaining

=1038 delegates to be determined

Mitt needs 338 delegates more

338/1038 = 32.5% remaining delegates needed tow in, prior to Tuesday needed 41.2% of remaining delegates

Assuming Mitt wins all the winner take all (at large delegates)

338-94= 244 delegates needed

He would obviously have to have won more CDs if he won the winner take all states...but question is how many.

244 delegates to win in that case with 71 super delegates remaining, 214 delegates that have yet to be decided from previous contests, 349 proportional delegates remaining, 124 unbound delegates, and 186 delegates from Winner take all congressional districts (53*3 CA, , 9*2 IN).

244/944=25.8%

Say if he only took HALF of the winner take all CDs...that seems to be a low estimate at this point especially after Tuesday = 93 delegates

244-93= 151 delegates needed/758 remaining (proportional + unbound + super delegates + remaining undetermined delegates from previous contests)=19.9%

Say he only gets a THIRD of the remaining proportional delegates that are bound 349/3=116

151-116=35 delegates

35 delegates/409 (Super delegates + Unbound delegates + Undetermined delegates) = 8.6% of those delegates

If he got 75% of the congressional districts...that would be enough along with the 1/3rd proportional and winner take all states to secure the nomination.

Bottom of the line is this. To prevent him from winning, assuming he takes the winner take all states. He would have to get less than 35% of the winner take all CDs, superdelegates, unbound delegates, proportional delegates, and yet to be decided delegates remaining (assuming that NONE of santorum's delegates become unbound and none of his unbound delegates go to Romney).

The way Romney has shown in the post-Santorum polls...I don't know how likely that is.

[Massachusetts]

Wrong. Romney bounds:

New Hampshire 7
South Carolina 2
Florida 50
Nevada 14
Arizona 29
Michigan 16
Georgia 21
Idaho 32
Massachusetts 38
Ohio 38
Oklahoma 13
Tennessee 16
Vermont 9
Virginia 43
Kansas 7
Alabama 12
Hawaii 9
Mississippi 12
Puerto Rico 20
Illinois 42 (Directly elected Romney delegates)
Maryland 37
DC 16
Wisconsin 33
Louisiana 5
Connecticut 25
Rhode Island 12
Delaware 17
New York 92
=667


I bolded the numbers that I'm disputing and questioning because they differ from my estimates. Explain those.

1) RNC changed Arizona's delegate distribution to proprtional after they broke the RNC rules and held a winner take all primary before March 6th
2) In Georgia..how is possible that Mitt got 21 delegates when Newt won the state easily?
3) You're right on SC, my bad with that one.

[tsai3904]

@jersdreams

Some of your numbers are off.

Missouri's delegates are bound and Romney received 12 (source (http://www.mogop.org/2012/04/6241/)).
One of Huntsman's delegate has publicly endorsed Romney.
The AP interviewed North Dakota's delegates and 12 endorsed Romney.
The last uncommitted delegate in Virgin Islands has endorsed Romney (source (http://vigop.com/2012/03/vi-gop-2012-caucus-results-coming-soon/)).
43 super delegates have endorsed Romney (but you included some in your count for the islands) (source (http://www.democraticconventionwatch.com/diary/4726/republican-superdelegate-endorsement-list))

[jersdreams]

I bolded the numbers that I'm disputing and questioning because they differ from my estimates. Explain those.

1) RNC changed Arizona's delegate distribution to proprtional after they broke the RNC rules and held a winner take all primary before March 6th
2) In Georgia..how is possible that Mitt got 21 delegates when Newt won the state easily?
3) You're right on SC, my bad with that one.

1) RNC officially hasn't changed anything...I believe. There were challenges I believe.....never an official ruling I know about. I would like to see that though. But at worse, that puts Romney down 10-15 delegates....
2) Georgia was proportionally bound
3) Yeah...he won winner take all CD for two delegates

[jersdreams]

@jersdreams

Some of your numbers are off.

Missouri's delegates are bound and Romney received 12 (source (http://www.mogop.org/2012/04/6241/)).
One of Huntsman's delegate has publicly endorsed Romney.
The AP interviewed North Dakota's delegates and 12 endorsed Romney.
The last uncommitted delegate in Virgin Islands has endorsed Romney (source (http://vigop.com/2012/03/vi-gop-2012-caucus-results-coming-soon/)).
43 super delegates have endorsed Romney (but you included some in your count for the islands) (source (http://www.democraticconventionwatch.com/diary/4726/republican-superdelegate-endorsement-list))

Didn't realize Missouri ones were technically bound....but I have seen various reports saying ROmney got 11, but I guess he got 12 and those are bound, so that would add one for Romney.
A Huntsman delegate? So that would be +2 for Romney
I didn't hear about the AP interview, but I remember the accounts and thread on OUR forums said the Romney slate that had been previously filled, which ended up getting elected had 20 delegates. If he only has 12 of them that would be -8...so now -6 from my count.
Didn't know the uncommitted one went for Romney. So -5 from my count.
Yeah I saw he has 43, but the numbers I was going off, some had already included the superdelegates in his total for the state. SOme I was able to extract, but I think I pretty much have the same combined numbers on that one.

Thanks for the info.

Thing is...he really does have 800+ probably delegates in the bag already from bound to the ones that are pledged to him....nothing to do with phony projections.

That is a crapload of delegates...plus he'll garner a good amount in a proportional Texas race. And if he wins a good chunk of (say half) of California's CDs....he's sniffing close...

Sadly the delegates are there for Romney. It would take a drastic, drastic miracle for Romney not to win after Tuesday. Ron would have to take the winner take all races...win a great chunk of California's CDs....keep him limited in the proportional races....such as keeping Romney to around 30% of those delegates.....