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View Full Version : How To Stop Romney from Clinching the Nomination?




tbone717
04-15-2012, 08:22 AM
This morning, I was reviewing The Green Papers delegate summary pages, and checking them for accuracy. While the delegate allocation is a little confusing to some, basically what we are looking at is Romney having at minimum 550 bound delegates, and at the most 676 delegates when you include "pledged delegates". The bound delegate number is one we can be sure of since it is based on election results, there are no estimates or projections in those numbers. Those are the delegates Romney has won in the completed contests. For example Romney won 50 delegates from FL - those 50 delegates are bound by party rules to vote for Romney on the first ballot whether they are Romney supporters or not. The 676 number on thegreenpages includes some projections, but also includes many of the "super delegates" that have pledged their vote for Romney and unbound delegates from states like CO (where we have reports from yesterday that Romney won 13 of those). So what we are assured of is that at the RNC 550 delegates will be voting for Romney on the first ballot, and there is somewhere around 126 other delegates that have pledged to vote for Romney.

Now, moving forward there are 1053 delegates available from the remaining states. The large majority of them (894 to be exact) are bound delegates, and will be awarded to the winner of the contest (with a combination of state victory and CD victory depending on the state).

So using Romney's low number of 550 (the bound delegates), Romney needs only 594 more delegates to have this thing locked up. If he hits that 1144 number of bound delegates, then the unbounds, the super delegates, Santorum's delegates, the bonus delegates, etc won't really come into play. 1144 delegates will be bound by state rules to vote for Romney and he will win the nomination. Make sense?

Therefore, in order to prevent Romney from winning the nomination, Ron Paul needs to win more delegates than Romney - period. Whether you use the bound number of 550 or the pledged number of 676 - the fact is that Romney will win the nomination if he continues to win these contests. There is no other way around it. Teaming up with Santorum's folks at the state conventions, having "stealth delegates" - none of it will matter if Romney has 1144.

The question to the floor then is this - what can the campaign and the grassroots do to take Paul from his current polling (around 15%) to the percentage needed to win the states (around 50%). We essentially are looking at tripling Paul's support - because HE NEEDS TO WIN STATES! Picking up a few CD's won't do it (as most states award the bulk of delegates to the state winner). Getting our guys to take over the Iowa convention won't do it (although that is important too).

The plain truth is this - there are 20 contests remaining, with 1053 delegates up for grabs. 894 of those delegates will be based on election results. Paul needs to win the majority of those delegates, otherwise Romney will be the nominee. The campaign, the candidate and the grassroots has 9 days to turn the tide. What will it take?

Endorsements? New policy presentations? Major announcements?

What can be done to triple Paul's support over the next few weeks?

Okie RP fan
04-15-2012, 08:29 AM
Thanks for the information, nice post.

Simple steps to start winning some states:

1. Remind people why Rmoney is terrible for conservative and libertarian principles and the movement as a whole. There are numerous examples of this, i.e., "RomneyCare."

2. The fact that Rmoney was the governor of Massachusetts. NO ONE is truly conservative if they are elected in Massachusetts, I'm sorry.

3. Keep pushing people to go to an alternative selection, tell them that the race is not over, yet. We still have time to save the party from Rmoney.

4. Spread and promote all of Dr. Paul's principles and poll numbers against Obama (Dr. Paul does very well, we all know that).

5. Tell people to quit listening to the television and radio.

6. Become a delegate at all costs! It's okay if you are bound, just become a delegate! We need as many people as we can get to start influencing REAL change within the establishment's realm.


Those are just quick six, easy steps that came to the top of my head. I know there's more, but that should do for now.

tbone717
04-15-2012, 08:32 AM
Thanks for the information, nice post.

Simple steps to start winning some states:

1. Remind people why Rmoney is terrible for conservative and libertarian principles and the movement as a whole. There are numerous examples of this, i.e., "RomneyCare."

2. The fact that Rmoney was the governor of Massachusetts. NO ONE is truly conservative if they are elected in Massachusetts, I'm sorry.

3. Keep pushing people to go to an alternative selection, tell them that the race is not over, yet. We still have time to save the party from Rmoney.

4. Spread and promote all of Dr. Paul's principles and poll numbers against Obama (Dr. Paul does very well, we all know that).

5. Tell people to quit listening to the television and radio.

6. Become a delegate at all costs! It's okay if you are bound, just become a delegate! We need as many people as we can get to start influencing REAL change within the establishment's realm.


Those are just quick six, easy steps that came to the top of my head. I know there's more, but that should do for now.

Excellent thoughts - my question would be though, how do we do this. We cannot rely on the internet solely - heck, less that 50% of adults use social networking sites (source (http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/26/half-of-america-is-using-social-networks/)), and the 50% that do not use social networking skews to the older population who make up the larger percentage of the vote.

What means then do you suggest?

thoughtomator
04-15-2012, 08:34 AM
peoplenet

tbone717
04-15-2012, 08:35 AM
peoplenet

What is that?

thoughtomator
04-15-2012, 08:37 AM
I mean, it's done one person-to-person conversation at a time. It works, it has been working, and if it continues to work we will be at critical mass quite soon.

Okie RP fan
04-15-2012, 08:38 AM
Excellent thoughts - my question would be though, how do we do this. We cannot rely on the internet solely - heck, less that 50% of adults use social networking sites (source (http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/26/half-of-america-is-using-social-networks/)), and the 50% that do not use social networking skews to the older population who make up the larger percentage of the vote.

What means then do you suggest?

The Internet is an excellent place for us to start and should be, how should I say, second nature for us. There is no reason we shouldn't be able to dominate the Internet, that comes first because that is what we are best at.

Second, I believe simply asking friends and family to get involved and continuing to educate them is crucial. We need to be able to win over at least some of our friends and family to the movement. From there, they can spread the word (hopefully) and we know that we can start building solid foundations within our communities.

Third, we need to simply get involved with any and every local liberty group. We need to make sure we are part of our local Ron Paul groups (we are essentially every where) and we need to become part of other Republican, Independent, liberty-minded meetups, groups, etc.

From there, it simply becomes a means of doing whatever we can. Whether that be going door-to-door, spreading fliers on cars (if that is truly effective, I don't know that it is), continuing sign waves to keep Dr. Paul's name relevant, etc.

The first three things I mentioned, we need to make sure we are already involved in, that should be no question.

tbone717
04-15-2012, 08:42 AM
I mean, it's done one person-to-person conversation at a time. It works, it has been working, and if it continues to work we will be at critical mass quite soon.

Gotcha. Great thought. My only concern though, would be the time factor. Take NY for example. Based on 2008 results, and current polling data we have around 65,000 people that are going to vote for Paul, we need about 300,000 to win the state. How can we reach 235,000 people in NY in the next 9 days, so that Paul can get the bulk of the 92 bound delegates up for grabs?

Okie RP fan
04-15-2012, 08:45 AM
Gotcha. Great thought. My only concern though, would be the time factor. Take NY for example. Based on 2008 results, and current polling data we have around 65,000 people that are going to vote for Paul, we need about 300,000 to win the state. How can we reach 235,000 people in NY in the next 9 days, so that Paul can get the bulk of the 92 bound delegates up for grabs?

People in NY should have been on the ground or doing whatever else they can for some time, now. The only thing other people can do, besides promoting over the Internet, is calling friends and family in the state and talking to them. Or, calling into radio stations, or something. Anyone else have a take on that?

tbone717
04-15-2012, 08:51 AM
People in NY should have been on the ground or doing whatever else they can for some time, now. The only thing other people can do, besides promoting over the Internet, is calling friends and family in the state and talking to them. Or, calling into radio stations, or something. Anyone else have a take on that?

It's good. Though I still think we are in small scale here. I mean we have had people doing PFH right from the start, and we still can barely break 10% in most states. We need 50%.

I am thinking that the campaign needs to do something MAJOR, and do it now. Major endorsements, major policy speeches (as opposed to campus rallies). Something that would stop the news of the day, and place the focus solely on the Paul campaign.

klamath
04-15-2012, 09:01 AM
One way that might possible pull off a win is to use the inevitablily of Romney's nomination against him. Sell RP to people this way. "Sure Romney has it tied up but do you want a candidate that is for healthcare mandates and bailouts to go on without any forces pulling him to the right at the convention? Vote for RP so Romney isn't getting a electoral mandate for mandates and bailouts. A large showing of RP delegates at the convention will hold his feet to the fire."

tbone717
04-15-2012, 09:07 AM
One way that might possible pull off a win is to use the inevitablily of Romney's nomination against him. Sell RP to people this way. "Sure Romney has it tied up but do you want a candidate that is for healthcare mandates and bailouts to go on without any forces pulling him to the right at the convention? Vote for RP so Romney isn't getting a electoral mandate for mandates and bailouts. A large showing of RP delegates at the convention will hold his feet to the fire."

Excellent. How how do we or the campaign get that out to people to move us from 15 to 50%? News conferences? New TV & radio ads?

PreDeadMan
04-15-2012, 10:36 AM
Well the Ron Paul campaign needs to go on an attack ad rampage instead of sitting quiet and twirling their hair. But hey that's just my opinion i donated over a grand I expect to see some anti romney ads out the ying yang.....

ShibbitySparks
04-15-2012, 10:44 AM
Kony-style plaster the cities?

PaulSoHard
04-15-2012, 10:50 AM
At the expense of costing the GOP the presidency (which they won't get with Romney anyway), the campaign needs to launch a full-scale attack and capture attention. I hope the purpose of trying to raise $2.5 million today and beyond goes to that cause. At this point we're not going to see more numbers just by playing nice with the 'frontrunner.' The Democrats threw dirt at each other in 2008 all the way until the convention and they won because the GOP threw up a poor ticket in McCain and Palin. If the GOP's main focus this year is to defeat Obama, why wouldn't they hold their breath and vote Ron

RonRules
04-15-2012, 10:56 AM
Can't some bound delegates that happen to be Ron Paul supporters (I hear there are many), simply abstain from voting in the first round? That was discussed previously and the rules seem to indicate that. Has anybody got a definitive answer on that?

Also, as far as I am concerned the main way to stop Romney is by exposing the massive fraud that's done through vote flipping. If you don't believe it or don't have the statistical knowledge, that fine. Please find someone that has graduate level knowledge in statistics, preferably someone from Political Science at a university. You'll see their eyes pop out, I guarantee you.

That's how you stop Romney and this way, WE can win in 2012.

WilliamC
04-15-2012, 10:58 AM
I dunno, just keep donating until I've maxed out?

Personally I have a ways to go myself but I'm sort of broke....

PaulSoHard
04-15-2012, 11:01 AM
Can't some bound delegates that happen to be Ron Paul supporters (I hear there are many), simply abstain from voting in the first round? That was discussed previously and the rules seem to indicate that. Has anybody got a definitive answer on that?
I still have questions for this. Can anyone confirm that you can abstain your vote in the first round of voting?

Romney's campaign is going to spend massive funds on finding out if their bound delegates are actually pledged to him, so we need to keep quiet if we do have any stealth delegates hammered in there. We're seeing a lot of success at the county and district levels of conventions and we're not going to let them win this nomination so easily

InTradePro
04-15-2012, 11:10 AM
How To Stop Rmoney from Clinching the Nomination? Simple. Keep Dr Paul in until Rmoney drops out!

eleganz
04-15-2012, 11:11 AM
Must destroy Romney in Texas landslide...then California...

Any other conservative states that would've given Santorum a decent showing that we can do well on?

tbone717
04-15-2012, 11:24 AM
I still have questions for this. Can anyone confirm that you can abstain your vote in the first round of voting?

Romney's campaign is going to spend massive funds on finding out if their bound delegates are actually pledged to him, so we need to keep quiet if we do have any stealth delegates hammered in there. We're seeing a lot of success at the county and district levels of conventions and we're not going to let them win this nomination so easily

Bound delegates, for all intents and purposes, don't really vote in the first round because state rules have already decided their vote for them.

MisfitToy
04-15-2012, 11:41 AM
1) Emphasize that there is no difference between Romknee and Obama.

2) Emphasize that voting for grinch will not stop Romknee

3) Emphasize that Paul will beat Obama and become the Republican President

Keith and stuff
04-15-2012, 11:46 AM
It's good. Though I still think we are in small scale here. I mean we have had people doing PFH right from the start, and we still can barely break 10% in most states. We need 50%.

50% in most of the remaining states isn't going to happen. I disagree with your barely break 10% in most states line, though. With Santorum out, Ron Paul will get a boost in every remaining state. If news about Gingrich being 4.5 million in debt and his UT check bouncing, Ron Paul will get a boost in every state.
Northern New England (VT, NH, ME) Average 28%
West Coast (HI, AK, WA, OR, CA) Average 23%
Canadian Border (AK, WA, ID, MT, ND, MN, WI, MI, NY, VT, NH, ME) Average 23%
Mountain West (NV, ID, MT, WY, UT, CO, AZ, NM) Average 16%

The only regions at or below 10% so far are Gulf Coast (TX, LA, MS, AL, FL) Average 5% and Mexican Border (CA, AZ, NM, TX) Average 8% (only AZ has voted)
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?366812-Ron-Paul-Support-by-Region

soulcyon
04-15-2012, 11:49 AM
I understood this from the OP -

We must win at least 300-some delegates from the Primaries to stop Romney from becoming nominee. I smell California, New York and Texas :D

kathy88
04-15-2012, 12:02 PM
He got 16% in PA last time. Santorum is out (Pennsylvanians apparently have short memories because he had astonishing support here). I have not seen/heard one Pro-Romney anything around here. Nothing. Nada. Ron Paul is EVERYWHERE.

Aratus
04-15-2012, 12:04 PM
Lets hope RON PAUL happily WINs PENNSYLVANIA!

kathy88
04-15-2012, 12:12 PM
In addition, our delegates are all unbound and we have a VERY active group working biggest polling locations throughout the state.

Rafi
04-16-2012, 06:34 AM
The reality is, if we want our numbers to triple, the economic doom we're all predicting will have to happen before the convention. If anyone knows a way to trigger it, go ahead. It'll have to happen anyway naturally, so it may as well happen now while we have a man who can take the reigns under the pressure and know how to diffuse it.

Otherwise, we'll need a miracle. Which we may just get. God's watching.

Ivash
04-16-2012, 06:45 AM
There are only three campaign stops? That'd have to change.

But, seriously, the best and easiest way would be if you could stick Romney on voting fraud charges. I have my doubts that it even occurs, but if it does and you could link it to Romney it would be a knock out blow.

sailingaway
04-16-2012, 08:03 AM
I was hoping the money bomb would be big enough to allow targeted advertising. I actually believe now is the most important time, to make sure Ron is seen in upcoming primary states as the anti Romney. Grinch is trying to be at least in Southern states, and he has regular Hannity interviews etc to give him free media time.

We need to focus on the districts we can win and hit those hard, for starters. If we can think of a way to get advertising type profile in the upcoming states, even on cable or radio, maybe using RevPak ads that would help. It is our standard problem but we do have a key point right now, where we need Ron to do well in PRIMARIES before the success in caucus states will be widely known.

speciallyblend
04-16-2012, 08:04 AM
complain to the ron paul campaign and do not make unity slates so we can lose to romney:) that is how you stop romney. sarcasm

tbone717
04-16-2012, 08:10 AM
I was hoping the money bomb would be big enough to allow targeted advertising. I actually believe now is the most important time, to make sure Ron is seen in upcoming primary states as the anti Romney. Grinch is trying to be at least in Southern states, and he has regular Hannity interviews etc to give him free media time.

We need to focus on the districts we can win and hit those hard, for starters. If we can think of a way to get advertising type profile in the upcoming states, even on cable or radio, maybe using RevPak ads that would help. It is our standard problem but we do have a key point right now, where we need Ron to do well in PRIMARIES before the success in caucus states will be widely known.

Right because the caucus states are just a small percentage of the overall picture. I think there were 10 total (not including the islands) and about 400 delegates at most between them all. Hell Paul can win every delegate from every caucus state and still come up way, way short of forcing a second vote.

Carehn
04-16-2012, 08:15 AM
With the media saying that mittens has it in the bag many people will not show up to vote. So all we have to do is get all our support to show up to vote and win a state or 2. If this starts happening things will change and they will attack us hard. So we have to do what ever we do under cover.

The sad truth is that the frothy and gingrich supporters are more likely to vote for mittens so i don't see us getting any of there support. People like to vote for a winner and they are all being told its time to get behind mittens and they will do as they are told.

QUESTION - If i am a bound delegate could i just restrain from voting the 1st time around? Or what if I just brake the rules and Vote for Paul anyway?

tbone717
04-16-2012, 08:18 AM
QUESTION - If i am a bound delegate could i just restrain from voting the 1st time around? Or what if I just brake the rules and Vote for Paul anyway?

As I understand it, bound delegates technically do not vote on the first round, because you vote is already cast based upon the state party rules. I would imagine that an outright refusal and call for abstaining would just get your replaced by an alternate.

tbone717
04-16-2012, 08:21 AM
With the media saying that mittens has it in the bag many people will not show up to vote. So all we have to do is get all our support to show up to vote and win a state or 2. If this starts happening things will change and they will attack us hard. So we have to do what ever we do under cover.

This is a good point, though there is an issue with Paul's soft support not voting either. All in all, we need to generate NEW support in order to win. Even though McCain had in in the bag in 08, 806,000 cast votes in the presidential primary. Using those numbers as a guide Paul would need about 400K to carry the state.

speciallyblend
04-16-2012, 08:28 AM
With the media saying that mittens has it in the bag many people will not show up to vote. So all we have to do is get all our support to show up to vote and win a state or 2. If this starts happening things will change and they will attack us hard. So we have to do what ever we do under cover.

The sad truth is that the frothy and gingrich supporters are more likely to vote for mittens so i don't see us getting any of there support. People like to vote for a winner and they are all being told its time to get behind mittens and they will do as they are told.

QUESTION - If i am a bound delegate could i just restrain from voting the 1st time around? Or what if I just brake the rules and Vote for Paul anyway?

do you have a poll or link to prove this, every santorum supporter i talked to hate mittens with a passion especially the pro-life anti flip flop wing of santorum.

Ivash
04-16-2012, 09:01 AM
do you have a poll or link to prove this, every santorum supporter i talked to hate mittens with a passion especially the pro-life anti flip flop wing of santorum.

Many of these not-Romney voters have migrated from not-Romney to not-Romney. Many *really* do not like him.

The Other Andy
04-16-2012, 10:00 AM
With the media saying that mittens has it in the bag many people will not show up to vote. So all we have to do is get all our support to show up to vote and win a state or 2. If this starts happening things will change and they will attack us hard. So we have to do what ever we do under cover.

The sad truth is that the frothy and gingrich supporters are more likely to vote for mittens so i don't see us getting any of there support. People like to vote for a winner and they are all being told its time to get behind mittens and they will do as they are told.

QUESTION - If i am a bound delegate could i just restrain from voting the 1st time around? Or what if I just brake the rules and Vote for Paul anyway?

This. All the efforts in the world to "reach out" to others won't do enough at this point. You're fighting against the media. They've done all they can to make sure either nobody knows that Paul is still alive, or to make them think he's some crazy nut. Making some huge event likely won't get them to pay attention either. Paul's been getting massive amounts of people to his rallies and yet the media is more interested in mittens stopping at a cheese store. I'm convinced Paul could blow up the moon and he still wouldn't get a headline.

Rallying the supporters we do have and getting them to the polls to push his percentages up is the best bet now.

floridasun1983
04-16-2012, 12:43 PM
In life, maintaining perspective is must. tbone717 has once again provided us all with a dose of reality that we need to maintain going forward. Its easy to get excited when we win some delegates in these caucus contests, but Romney's lead dwarfs us and the good old caucus days are over from here on out. That said, Santorum really handed us a gift by dropping out; if we cannot capitalize and be the "anti-Romney" now, then we really don't deserve it.

So, how do we capitalize on all this? Quite simply the campaign has to get a second wind and act like it wants to and believes it can win. There will have to be targeted Romney ads. Ron's going to have to actually campaign instead of hold mega-pep rallies. They are going to have to do something that will get them headlines and attention. The grassroots can only do so much, they have to meet us in the middle. If we can pull of a win in a state, then its a new ballgame.

IDefendThePlatform
04-16-2012, 12:48 PM
In life, maintaining perspective is must. tbone717 has once again provided us all with a dose of reality that we need to maintain going forward. Its easy to get excited when we win some delegates in these caucus contests, but Romney's lead dwarfs us and the good old caucus days are over from here on out. That said, Santorum really handed us a gift by dropping out; if we cannot capitalize and be the "anti-Romney" now, then we really don't deserve it.

So, how do we capitalize on all this? Quite simply the campaign has to get a second wind and act like it wants to and believes it can win. There will have to be targeted Romney ads. Ron's going to have to actually campaign instead of hold mega-pep rallies. They are going to have to do something that will get them headlines and attention. The grassroots can only do so much, they have to meet us in the middle. If we can pull off a win in a state, then its a new ballgame.

Agreed. Not sure what state is closest to "winnable" (New York?) but the math isn't there for the delegate strategy without a win and some momentum. A big boost for Phone from Home and focusing on one state straw poll/primary could be big for us.

Agorism
04-16-2012, 12:53 PM
Nevada has 28 (what if we sweep it somehow)

Lower Romney's expected in both Missouri and Minnesota

Win Maryland somehow?

Overperform in Oklahoma and Washington?

That would take a lot but how would stuff like that change the math?

alucard13mmfmj
04-16-2012, 01:06 PM
i think the 24th, the next primary date, is very important in setting the tone and rhythm of the campaign. it is a gauge on how strong the santorum support is behind ron. a win would be awesome, but with media blackout/bias and those states being pro-romney... itll be very very hard. i hear some good news from new york here and there.

nothing significant has happened so far, since santorums departure. it is quite dissapointing. i still think a ninja press conference would be nice =(..........

KEEF
04-16-2012, 01:13 PM
i think the 24th, the next primary date, is very important in setting the tone and rhythm of the campaign. it is a gauge on how strong the santorum support is behind ron. a win would be awesome, but with media blackout/bias and those states being pro-romney... itll be very very hard. i hear some good news from new york here and there.

nothing significant has happened so far, since santorums departure. it is quite dissapointing. i still think a ninja press conference would be nice =(..........

Ninjas are cool, I dig the idea. At least enough of a press conference to call out Rom**y for not signing on for the Texas Debate with Newt and Dr. Paul.

tbone717
04-16-2012, 01:28 PM
Nevada has 28 (what if we sweep it somehow)

Lower Romney's expected in both Missouri and Minnesota

Win Maryland somehow?

Overperform in Oklahoma and Washington?

That would take a lot but how would stuff like that change the math?

It wouldn't. All those are in the past and are included in the high estimate number in the OP. Paul needs to win 300-500 delegates in the upcoming states to stop Romney. The variance in the number depends on how many unbound delegates go his way. More than likely it is going to take Paul winning 500 to stop him.

The other consideration is the Santorum and Newt delegates which could be released and unbound. Depending on the percentage of those that go to Romney could be the difference between him getting the nomination or not.

Basically what it boils down to is out of the remaining 1000 or so delegates that are up for grabs, Paul needs to win as many as humanly possible. We have been waiting since January for Paul to start winning states outright. The time for him to do so is now.

DanK22
04-16-2012, 01:52 PM
In order to stop R-Money at the primary-level, we need most of Santorum's supporters to come our way. Has there been an ad that attacked Mitt's pro-choice past and contrasted it with Paul's 4k baby deliveries? Something like that might sway a large part of his voters. An ad that points out the similarities between Obama and Romney (bank contributions, healthcare, bailouts, 2nd amendment, etc)... maybe thread their statements together and add Paul's contrasting comments. Does anyone know how much pull the radio mafia has? I think they're to blame for Santorum's rise from nowhere and his ability to get away with calling himself a 'conservative'. Could we orchestrate a radio show call-in? Get the most articulate Paul supporters to call in to radio shows during their most listened-to hours (morning commutes, lunch, and drive home hours). Do we have enough people to get something like RonPaul2012 trending on twitter?

gogokinker
04-16-2012, 01:53 PM
People keep forgetting he has tons of bound delegates.

tbone717
04-16-2012, 02:01 PM
People keep forgetting he has tons of bound delegates.

I agree, it was addressed in the OP. Greenpapers count for hard bound delegates for Romney is at 550.

MisfitToy
04-16-2012, 02:09 PM
I was thinking on the way work today that most of our competition are conditioning the masses with simple mantras. They have media injecting everyone with simple untruths and I hate to say I've wasted plenty of time trying to convince people otherwise with long explanations that they really don't want to absorb. We should hit the internet, tweets, FB, comments, etc with our own mantras of undeniable truths. The most powerful being R8mney will not beat Obama. The second is that Ron paul is electable (been elected 12 times already- thanks Jay Leno) and that he will beat Obama. We need to recondition people to the truth and the only way to do this is by being simple, relentless, and consistent.

tbone717
04-16-2012, 02:19 PM
I was thinking on the way work today that most of our competition are conditioning the masses with simple mantras. They have media injecting everyone with simple untruths and I hate to say I've wasted plenty of time trying to convince people otherwise with long explanations that they really don't want to absorb. We should hit the internet, tweets, FB, comments, etc with our own mantras of undeniable truths. The most powerful being R8mney will not beat Obama. The second is that Ron paul is electable (been elected 12 times already- thanks Jay Leno) and that he will beat Obama. We need to recondition people to the truth and the only way to do this is by being simple, relentless, and consistent.

Excellent ideas. We do however, need to expand outside of the internet. One thing we do know is that 50% of adults do not use social media, and that skews to the older demographic - who vote in a greater percentage. Not being a math wizard, but it is pretty reasonable to suggest that 60% or more of voters do not use social media, so tweets, FB, etc won't get to them. And then the others that are on social media - how many of them are discussing the election? I know my FB wall is dominated by people's vacation photos and other things - politics is not the topic of conversation at all.

So we need to think outside of our little isolated world of political blogs, YouTube videos and "like" buttons. We need to get back to basic, retail politics because that is what wins elections. We have a senate candidate in PA that is touring the state right now, stops every day in towns across the state. He is shaking hands and kissing babies. That stuff still works. So as grassroots activists we need to go back to doing traditional campaigning, because obviously all the work we do online has not resulted in a win up to this point.

I've worked my neighborhood of about 250 homes. I do it nearly every election for the candidates I am backing. Have others on here developed lists of their neighbors? Who votes, who doesn't? Which issues are important to them? Their names, their spouses, where their kids are from, what they do for a living? Their hobbies and interests? What church they attend? All of that vital info that it takes to get to know people better and build a relationship with them, so that you can have influence over their voting decisions.

Most of us have several hundred people that vote living within walking distance from our computers. Do you even know who these people are? If you don't, and you are in a state that votes on the 24th - then there is no time like the present to get out there and get to know them all.

twomp
04-16-2012, 02:31 PM
Excellent ideas. We do however, need to expand outside of the internet. One thing we do know is that 50% of adults do not use social media, and that skews to the older demographic - who vote in a greater percentage. Not being a math wizard, but it is pretty reasonable to suggest that 60% or more of voters do not use social media, so tweets, FB, etc won't get to them. And then the others that are on social media - how many of them are discussing the election? I know my FB wall is dominated by people's vacation photos and other things - politics is not the topic of conversation at all.

So we need to think outside of our little isolated world of political blogs, YouTube videos and "like" buttons. We need to get back to basic, retail politics because that is what wins elections. We have a senate candidate in PA that is touring the state right now, stops every day in towns across the state. He is shaking hands and kissing babies. That stuff still works. So as grassroots activists we need to go back to doing traditional campaigning, because obviously all the work we do online has not resulted in a win up to this point.

I've worked my neighborhood of about 250 homes. I do it nearly every election for the candidates I am backing. Have others on here developed lists of their neighbors? Who votes, who doesn't? Which issues are important to them? Their names, their spouses, where their kids are from, what they do for a living?

Most of us have several hundred people that vote living within walking distance from our computers. Do you even know who these people are? If you don't, and you are in a state that votes on the 24th - then there is no time like the present to get out there and get to know them all.

+rep!! thanks for crunching all the numbers for us! Dr. Paul really does need to start winning, hope and optimistic thinking will only get us so far. It's Dr. Paul vs. Romney now and we have the world's greatest propaganda machine standing against us. If ever there were a reason to donate, sign-wave, phone from home, make edit some videos, spam facebook/twitter or whatever else you can do. Now would be the time to do it. Dare to be great!

tbone717
04-16-2012, 02:41 PM
Ok folks. I have said all that I need to say. The grassroots, the campaign and the candidate need to be working their butts off if we expect to stop Romney from clinching. There isn't much time left to do it, so this is Paul's chance to make a stand. We will know in a little more than a week if he was able to be successful.

gerryb
04-16-2012, 03:36 PM
Work the conventions in every state. Winning the popular vote won't matter if we don't concentrate on this.

IDefendThePlatform
04-16-2012, 03:44 PM
Work the conventions in every state. Winning the popular vote won't matter if we don't concentrate on this.

Agreed, although at this point I think we need to add that working the conventions won't matter if we don't win the popular vote in at least 1 or 2, preferably sooner rather than later.

zeloc
04-16-2012, 04:37 PM
Continuing to do what we have been doing is not going to work.

I proposed in several posts that we need a unified, national, grassroots campaign, with a person appointed/elected as a leader who will coordinate efforts.

Next, we need a strategy. Trying to "win all states" is not going to work. I suggested that we select 1 major state (the consensus seemed to be CA) and use a blitzkrieg strategy to try to win it by taking advantage of every possible route (bumper stickers, writing to the media, online advertising, interviews, blog posts, phone banking, etc, etc, etc). I gave more detail in my other post. The idea is that a lot of us have had our state primaries/conventions already and it makes no sense to diffuse our effort over many states instead of having everyone in a concerted effort to win 1 MAJOR state, one that can create a lot of excitement.

The idea is that if we demonstrate that Ron Paul is winning CA, other states, even those that have their primaries before CA, will get swayed. Right now Ron Paul is not getting media coverage. What we have to do is get beyond the tipping point to where he will get significant media coverage. Without media coverage, he doesn't win, very simply. We also have to get moderates/Democrats to register Republican, they can be a major player if motivated.

gerryb
04-16-2012, 05:44 PM
Ron Paul will NEVER, EVER, get media coverage.

Please cure your Stockholm Syndrome, ASAP.

gerryb
04-16-2012, 05:47 PM
Agreed, although at this point I think we need to add that working the conventions won't matter if we don't win the popular vote in at least 1 or 2, preferably sooner rather than later.

Winning the popular vote isn't a requirement.. but short of a great awakening of our supporters to the truth of the system and a minority of supporters learning their states bylaws plus Roberts Rules -- and a Majority following/taking part in the conventions -- winning a primary(s) is the only thing that is likely to get/keep them involved.

IDefendThePlatform
04-16-2012, 06:26 PM
Winning the popular vote isn't a requirement.. but short of a great awakening of our supporters to the truth of the system and a minority of supporters learning their states bylaws plus Roberts Rules -- and a Majority following/taking part in the conventions -- winning a primary(s) is the only thing that is likely to get/keep them involved.

There's no way we win the nomination without winning at least a couple of states popular votes. With santorum out, we need to focus on one or two winnable states, I'll say New York or Rhode Island, and focus all phone from home and campaign advertising on them.

As a side note, I think the Texas and California talk on here has been overdone for a long time. We've got a lot better shot in other states. And i certainly appreciate everyone who's been busting their asses in those states, but we've got to focus our efforts and win a state.

JellyRev
04-16-2012, 06:27 PM
Remember Virginia....I expect to see results similar to those, huge apathy and Remember according to the media the Primary is over no need to vote. But maybe the Grinch can steal Romney's presents and change the 60-40 we seen in Virginia into a 45Rom-40Paul-15Grinch in most states.
I could see Pennsylvania and Delaware following that kind of trend, I am pessimistic about Connect and RH. I think New York is gonna have huge variations in congressional districts very unpredictable. Texas and Cali is where the stand is.

eleganz
04-16-2012, 06:29 PM
We are focused on Texas, place all emphasis on TEXAS!

Winning TX by landslide will have a huge boost of momentum in California.


We should be hitting the lonestar state from ALL ANGLES.

-Phone from home
-phone banks
-ads
-grassroots
-robopolling
-gotv
-guerilla marketing

TEXAS IS OUR STATE TO WIN.

jemuf
04-16-2012, 10:26 PM
We are focused on Texas, place all emphasis on TEXAS! Winning TX by landslide will have a huge boost of momentum in California.

There are 573 delegates up for grabs between now and Texas. We can't ignore all of them. Next Tuesday there are 5 primaries and NY and Pennsylvania are two of them.

In one of the above posts Zeloc said "Continuing to do what we have been doing is not going to work. I proposed in several posts that we need a unified, national, grassroots campaign, with a person appointed/elected as a leader who will coordinate efforts."

I move that Zeloc is our leader. Besides phone banking and door-to-door what do you want me to do? I volunteer for the Twitter Team: one tweet, several times, by all team members for at least a day.

Tweet for Twitter: #Romney supports indefinite detention of Americans clause in #NDAA http://bit.ly/xccb6S

FoxNation counter-response? I'm there. Something else?

zeloc
04-16-2012, 11:13 PM
Ron Paul will NEVER, EVER, get media coverage.

Please cure your Stockholm Syndrome, ASAP.

Ron Paul will not win the nomination without media coverage. It just isn't going to happen. If you believe that Ron Paul is NEVER, EVER get media coverage, as you put it, then you are resigning yourself to failure. I would much rather work on getting him media coverage, because all that's really needed is to get beyond the tipping point, and he will get coverage.

zeloc
04-16-2012, 11:23 PM
In one of the above posts Zeloc said "Continuing to do what we have been doing is not going to work. I proposed in several posts that we need a unified, national, grassroots campaign, with a person appointed/elected as a leader who will coordinate efforts."

I move that Zeloc is our leader.

Thank you for your motion but I work insane hours and would not be able to do this role. If I were to take the role, I would create a list of all the persons willing to help, ideally those whose caucus/primaries have passed, so that all of these great individuals from throughout the nation could focus on 1 state. Then we would coordinate with those in the state to divide responsibilities based on what they could do in-state that the others could not. I would allocate persons to various tasks. Eg maybe there is a small team in charge of bumper stickers with the aim of getting 5% of cars with a Ron Paul bumper sticker within that state (free exposure to large amounts of people). I would contact newspapers and see if they are willing to interview persons on their support for Ron Paul. 1 group might be in charge of posting e-mails/twitter accounts here of those giving biased coverage within that state so that they can be sent messages by thousands of persons on this forum. This would make a difference, I saw a reporter on TV saying that he got thousands of e-mails after removing a poll that Ron Paul was winning. 1 team would be assigned on how to identify and get Democrats and independents to switch party affiliation and vote for Ron Paul.

What is really needed is an intelligent, concerted effort. Unfortunately I only have time to sign on here periodically and not in large periods of time but I see threads here all over the place and a lot of effort wasted. I think if anyone here is willing to step up to help coordinate the national efforts of all the thousands of persons here on this forum it would be appreciated. Maybe someone who was in charge of a state campaign that is over. jemuf, maybe you can take this role?