[Video] Is Oil Price Speculation a Bad thing?

[AlexMerced]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4eqcPWX-qc

[oyarde]

Is it ? , maybe , maybe not , the most important thing is this , it is traded in dollars , and if the dollar was worth anything it would not be running at over $100 a barrel . The people who have destroyed the value of the dollar are those responsible for putting the country at risk in this energy sector.

[Black Flag]

A man in a line up for gas is interviewed.

Interviewer: "Why are you here?"
Man: "Well, I heard gas prices are going up tomorrow, so I want to fill my car and all my spare gas jugs before the price goes up"

Interviewer: "Why do you think the price is going up?"
Man: "It's all those damn speculators buying and selling based on what they think the price and supply will be in the future, they screw up the market!"

[hazek]

Without speculation you would be hard pressed to have a stable price and a stable supply. Speculation is what provides the necessary liquidity to achieve that.

[ILUVRP]

i agree that true speculation is good and everything will average out as the contracts expire .

the thing is that crude oil being mainly controlled by opec , it is a rigged market , opec will never let the price of crude go down for very long. so why would the big specs ever want a large short position , they can make small money ( to them ) by being short in a short term , the big money will be made on the long side as they get all the help they need from OPEC and ICE .

take corn or soybeans , if the usda came out tomorrow and said there will be 15% more corn/soybeans this year , the price of beans/corn would more than likly drop 20-25% , going limit down for 3-4 days. the reason being c/sb are a true free market.

watching the video alex talks about gasoline most of the time , said something about crude very late , it is not about the cracks (gas-heating oil-diesel ) it all about crude . sort of like the soybean crush ( bean oil--sb meal ), cracks and crushes are the tail of the dog mostly.

[Black Flag]

the thing is that crude oil being mainly controlled by opec , it is a rigged market , opec will never let the price of crude go down for very long.

I do not believe this.
Yes, OPEC has an impact, ...
...but most of the world's oil is outside of OPEC - Russia is the largest supplier of oil in the world, add in Canada and USA, China, etc.

The price of oil is ... this price. Without OPEC it would be .... this price too.

OPEC is reactionary to the price not causative to the price.

[Black Flag]

the thing is that crude oil being mainly controlled by opec , it is a rigged market , opec will never let the price of crude go down for very long.

I do not believe this.
Yes, OPEC has an impact, ...
...but most of the world's oil is outside of OPEC - Russia is the largest supplier of oil in the world, add in Canada and USA, China, etc.

The price of oil is ... this price. Without OPEC it would be .... this price too.

OPEC is reactionary to the price not causative to the price.

[Knighted]

Speculation is a force of good in the markets. To illustrate that, consider this hypothetical scenario. Say that a major middle eastern oil producing country is in the midst of political turmoil which could jeopardize production and/or sales of its oil on the global markets. This has happened many times before.

Without speculators, and if only the immediate consumption of oil was the driver of oil prices, oil prices would remain roughly where they were right up until the day the event occurs in said country. When oil production grinds to a halt in said country and supply is strangled, oil prices would shoot up practically overnight worldwide. A side effect of this huge increase in the price of oil is that it would immediately trigger oil companies to begin ramping up production and considering expanding their exploration for new oil wells. The reason for this is that when the price of oil rises, oil wells that were previously too expensive or difficult to reach now become attractive (profitable opportunities) to the oil companies.

Here is the huge problem with this scenario where speculators do not exist. Because there were no speculators in the market slowly bidding up the price of oil as the stifling of production in said country became more and more likely as we approached the date of the "event", oil companies were not given that vital signal from the markets in advance, in the form of higher oil prices, that more production was needed. Thus, there is now a huge delay of weeks, if not months, for the oil that comes from the oil companies increasing production to enter the markets and increase supply. Huge price shocks like these would cause devastating effects in vulnerable companies and industries, since these businesses can't take measures to prepare for them for a price shock like this that occurs almost overnight like they could for a gradual increase in commodity prices over time. Speculators on the other hand would bid up the price of oil in advance in small increments, thus sending that signal to the markets early that more production may be needed in the future. This greatly reduces the volatility in oil prices over time as well as the occurrence of price shocks.

And if that example isn't enough for you or whoever you are trying to educate about the beneficial role of speculators in the market, then consider this. There are two sides to every trade, a short and a long position. If Goldman Sachs suddenly decides overnight that they want to buy up oil contracts and jack up the prices, there are hundreds or thousands of other firms running their own models showing that there is no fundamental (ie macro) basis for the rapid rise in oil prices. These people will then take the opposite side of the trade from Goldman - akin to a short position, where shares are borrowed and sold, driving prices back down to their former levels. Goldman is left holding the bag, and those short traders have now made bank, betting on a decrease in the price of oil. In fact, since a rise in oil prices reduces the demand for oil, the consumers alone will screw over Goldman's plans by consuming less oil. Speculation can work both ways, and a market where both sides of the trade can be taken ensures that it can't be used simply to drive up the price of a valuable commodity like oil.

[oyarde]

I will sell you a barrel of oil for $150 , next Easter , interested ?

[maskander]

A man in a line up for gas is interviewed.

Interviewer: "Why are you here?"
Man: "Well, I heard gas prices are going up tomorrow, so I want to fill my car and all my spare gas jugs before the price goes up"

Interviewer: "Why do you think the price is going up?"
Man: "It's all those damn speculators buying and selling based on what they think the price and supply will be in the future, they screw up the market!"the difference is, speculators are using the gas to line their pockets, americans are using gas to fill up their cars... speculation is just that, you aren't actually planning on using the good for anything, just selling it, and thus keeping it from people who need it, that's called greed where I'm from and is what led us into this mess.

[ILUVRP]

I do not believe this.
Yes, OPEC has an impact, ...
...but most of the world's oil is outside of OPEC - Russia is the largest supplier of oil in the world, add in Canada and USA, China, etc.

The price of oil is ... this price. Without OPEC it would be .... this price too.

OPEC is reactionary to the price not causative to the price.

the saudi royals have said they will never produce more than 10 million ba a day, they could very easy produce 13 million ba/day

even goldmansucks say more than 25% of the crude price is because of big speculators , google up" crude oil trading on ICE" , where there is no reporting required , how goldman and jpmorgan buy and sell contracts between each other at the same price to keep the price up.

america uses 400 million of gas products every day , at the same time we export close to 120 million every day.

i do think there should be more refineing of crude in the US , a new plant has not been built since 1976.

the oil producers are pi$$ing on us and telling us its raining.

[Paul Or Nothing II]

To OP,

+1 for the video, we need more like this, there are too many commies trying to misguide people & gather support for government for government intervention, regulationism, price-controlism & violating property-rights


Is it ? , maybe , maybe not , the most important thing is this , it is traded in dollars , and if the dollar was worth anything it would not be running at over $100 a barrel . The people who have destroyed the value of the dollar are those responsible for putting the country at risk in this energy sector.

Price in terms of gold are at some of the all time lows so you know it's the dollar that depreciating rapidly

http://pricedingold.com/charts/Crude-1950.png


the difference is, speculators are using the gas to line their pockets, americans are using gas to fill up their cars... speculation is just that, you aren't actually planning on using the good for anything, just selling it, and thus keeping it from people who need it, that's called greed where I'm from and is what led us into this mess.

Yes, they don't take delivery, which means when they buy a contract, it pushes the demand & prices up BUT because they don't want to take delivery, they MUST sell the contract eventually, which pushes the demand & prices DOWN so the NET EFFECT of speculation on the price is ZERO

Speculators benefit irrespective of whether prices rise or fall! Why did you think they "allowed" prices to fall from $150 to $50? Why didn't they keep it at $150 or even push it higher to $200 or $1000 or $million? Did you praise the speculators for bringing down the prices to $50 back then?
They DON'T control it, it's the supply & demand that does!

Beautiful comment I found on Alex's video, which pokes fun at the typical anti-market, pro-government, pro-coercion crowd :

Speculation is a bad thing because I am a petty person driven by jealousy and envy. Any time somebody is making money and getting ahead while I'm not is obviously bad.

And if you don't like price-increases so much then why don't you buy up oil futures? You have the opportunity to hedge yourself, EVERYONE does so if you CHOOSE not to then don't whine about it

Please take the time to read at least the chapters "How The Price System Works" & "Stabilizing Commodities" in the following PDF-book to understand how markets regulate prices through supply & demand to better run the economy & how the speculation ACTUALLY works
http://www.hacer.org/pdf/Hazlitt00.pdf


i agree that true speculation is good and everything will average out as the contracts expire .

the thing is that crude oil being mainly controlled by opec , it is a rigged market , opec will never let the price of crude go down for very long. so why would the big specs ever want a large short position , they can make small money ( to them ) by being short in a short term , the big money will be made on the long side as they get all the help they need from OPEC and ICE .

take corn or soybeans , if the usda came out tomorrow and said there will be 15% more corn/soybeans this year , the price of beans/corn would more than likly drop 20-25% , going limit down for 3-4 days. the reason being c/sb are a true free market.

watching the video alex talks about gasoline most of the time , said something about crude very late , it is not about the cracks (gas-heating oil-diesel ) it all about crude . sort of like the soybean crush ( bean oil--sb meal ), cracks and crushes are the tail of the dog mostly.

*Communist strikes back*

How do OPEC get "big speculators" to push up prices? Do you even realize that when prices go up, sellers LOSE OUT on money while buyers gain while when prices go down buyers lose out & sellers gain
And since there are always a buyer AND a seller to the contract, they're benefitting/losing out on each other's expense so how do you propose big speculators (buyers according to you), & OPEC (sellers) work together?

And again & again, you just seem incapable of grasping a SIMPLE fundamental fact about speculation, that speculators DON'T take delivery nor do they issue delivery so when they buy, they push up prices & demand BUT they push DOWN prices & demand so in the long-run, the NET EFFECT of speculation on prices is ZERO

Speculation merely producers to benefit at the expense of (bad) speculators as they producers secure a higher price & protect themselves against a fall in prices while (actual) buyers/businesses/consumers benefit at the expense of (bad) speculators as they secure a lower price & protect themselves against a future rise in prices

So tell me what stops your whiny a$$ from buying futures contracts & protecting yourself against future price-rise? If you aren't doing then you've no right to whine about because it's your CHOICE!
You should do that & also all those who don't understand markets & supply & demand & keep bitching about oil-prices, just go long on oil-contracts, once you get whipped by the markets by falling prices then you'll learn your lesson that there's no one sitting there dictating prices, it's just supply & demand; may the impending deflation bring you some nice losses, good luck!

By the way, something that you mightn't be able to figure but prices generally always rise because we live in a damn INFLATIONARY economy where the governments & banks are continuously devaluing the currency

[Paul Or Nothing II]

the saudi royals have said they will never produce more than 10 million ba a day, they could very easy produce 13 million ba/day

Why don't YOU buy up an oil-well & start doling out free oil? Investors & sellers always want to invest their capital in a way to maximize their returns, just like workers are always looking for a higher paid job, so if prices are too low then they've less incentive to produce, when the prices are high, they produce MORE because there's more incentive

When prices rise, consumers buy less while it causes producers to produce more because they can secure higher prices at the expense of (bad) speculators while consumers buy more when prices are lower at the expense of (bad) speculators & so on the cycle continues, speculation just allows people to hedge themselves more effectively, they keep the markets liquid, otherwise liquidity will dry up & there will be massive price-shocks, every now & then, which hurts the whole economy


even goldmansucks say more than 25% of the crude price is because of big speculators , google up" crude oil trading on ICE" , where there is no reporting required , how goldman and jpmorgan buy and sell contracts between each other at the same price to keep the price up.

The fact that you trust Sachs says a lot about you :rolleyes:

And again, buyers benefit at the expense of sellers when prices rise & sellers benefit at the expense of buyers when prices fall so how do Sachs & Morgan benefit? You've NO CLUE how the markets work!

Ok, where were Sachs & Morgan when the crisis hit & prices fell from $150 to $50? Why didn't they "keep up the prices"? Why didn't "push up" the prices further towards $1000 or $million? How much more are you going to embarrass yourself?


america uses 400 million of gas products every day , at the same time we export close to 120 million every day.

Oh, & you want the Communists dictators to stop them from exporting so that greedy people like who feel entitled to things could get cheap oil? Great eh? NO

If they FORCED (boy, you love government force, don't ya!) to sell here then they simply won't sell.......because it's not profitable & you're back to square one!

Of course, next thing a commie will suggest is "nationalize it", sure, go ahead & then the stupid government will be running the whole thing, costing way much more than a private business would've & of course, they'll give you "cheap oil" by selling it at massive losses & guess how they'll make up those losses - more taxes, more debt, more inflation! Yippy!

Boy, commies are really dumb! They think government force & coercion & violating others' rights will benefit them :rolleyes:


i do think there should be more refineing of crude in the US , a new plant has not been built since 1976.

Where are you millions & billions, go ahead, put'em where your mouth is!


the oil producers are pi$$ing on us and telling us its raining.

Again, the lack understanding of economics, of supply & demand, everything is lost on commies; government, government & more government, force, force & more force, that's their solution to everything; it has worked pretty nicely in USSR & elsewhere hasn't it!

[Paul Or Nothing II]

Speculation is a force of good in the markets. To illustrate that, consider this hypothetical scenario. Say that a major middle eastern oil producing country is in the midst of political turmoil which could jeopardize production and/or sales of its oil on the global markets. This has happened many times before.

Without speculators, and if only the immediate consumption of oil was the driver of oil prices, oil prices would remain roughly where they were right up until the day the event occurs in said country. When oil production grinds to a halt in said country and supply is strangled, oil prices would shoot up practically overnight worldwide. A side effect of this huge increase in the price of oil is that it would immediately trigger oil companies to begin ramping up production and considering expanding their exploration for new oil wells. The reason for this is that when the price of oil rises, oil wells that were previously too expensive or difficult to reach now become attractive (profitable opportunities) to the oil companies.

Here is the huge problem with this scenario where speculators do not exist. Because there were no speculators in the market slowly bidding up the price of oil as the stifling of production in said country became more and more likely as we approached the date of the "event", oil companies were not given that vital signal from the markets in advance, in the form of higher oil prices, that more production was needed. Thus, there is now a huge delay of weeks, if not months, for the oil that comes from the oil companies increasing production to enter the markets and increase supply. Huge price shocks like these would cause devastating effects in vulnerable companies and industries, since these businesses can't take measures to prepare for them for a price shock like this that occurs almost overnight like they could for a gradual increase in commodity prices over time. Speculators on the other hand would bid up the price of oil in advance in small increments, thus sending that signal to the markets early that more production may be needed in the future. This greatly reduces the volatility in oil prices over time as well as the occurrence of price shocks.

And if that example isn't enough for you or whoever you are trying to educate about the beneficial role of speculators in the market, then consider this. There are two sides to every trade, a short and a long position. If Goldman Sachs suddenly decides overnight that they want to buy up oil contracts and jack up the prices, there are hundreds or thousands of other firms running their own models showing that there is no fundamental (ie macro) basis for the rapid rise in oil prices. These people will then take the opposite side of the trade from Goldman - akin to a short position, where shares are borrowed and sold, driving prices back down to their former levels. Goldman is left holding the bag, and those short traders have now made bank, betting on a decrease in the price of oil. In fact, since a rise in oil prices reduces the demand for oil, the consumers alone will screw over Goldman's plans by consuming less oil. Speculation can work both ways, and a market where both sides of the trade can be taken ensures that it can't be used simply to drive up the price of a valuable commodity like oil.

+1

Good post, I've tried & tried but it seems beyond commies' IQ-level to understand such basic stuff but hopefully you'll succeed in getting the point across :) I'm sick of answering the same question over & over again, some people are just too thick! :(

[ILUVRP]

i will post these links for people that want to learn what is going on with the crude oil trading , i have learned that ones that call people " commies " all the time are not very bright , calling others that don't agree with them names is a very easy out , if you don't know the facts then call someone a commie . btw that does not make you correct .


http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCcQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fvoices.yahoo.com%2Fthe-enron-loophole-orgy-speculation-the-1597859.html&ei=v-OJT6GcD8XWiALdna3ECw&usg=AFQjCNFcSwi1d-t7yR51rzwHJv7Y3t0Q5g&sig2=5-iRaQkrN3k_aEWf4hnD0A

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CCwQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fnapoleonlive.info%2Feconomics%2Fo il-prices-means-speculators%2F&ei=JeSJT5CyLa6OigKf7ey7Cw&usg=AFQjCNH8AAhRZ6ZUccLsAV68fJvWfb3MjQ&sig2=jKfX7aG8L1-uNmJRJq5cYA


http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CCwQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fmoney.howstuffworks.com%2Foil-speculation-raise-gas-price.htm&ei=teSJT57kPKmWiQKJ0M2kCw&usg=AFQjCNHNX897kuDy7SVXAps7pQUo7eToLQ&sig2=lLsyXKVb1pQ-ZPTw5DJRrw

[Paul Or Nothing II]

i will post these links for people that want to learn what is going on with the crude oil trading , i have learned that ones that call people " commies " all the time are not very bright , calling others that don't agree with them names is a very easy out , if you don't know the facts then call someone a commie . btw that does not make you correct .


http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCcQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fvoices.yahoo.com%2Fthe-enron-loophole-orgy-speculation-the-1597859.html&ei=v-OJT6GcD8XWiALdna3ECw&usg=AFQjCNFcSwi1d-t7yR51rzwHJv7Y3t0Q5g&sig2=5-iRaQkrN3k_aEWf4hnD0A

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CCwQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fnapoleonlive.info%2Feconomics%2Fo il-prices-means-speculators%2F&ei=JeSJT5CyLa6OigKf7ey7Cw&usg=AFQjCNH8AAhRZ6ZUccLsAV68fJvWfb3MjQ&sig2=jKfX7aG8L1-uNmJRJq5cYA


http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CCwQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fmoney.howstuffworks.com%2Foil-speculation-raise-gas-price.htm&ei=teSJT57kPKmWiQKJ0M2kCw&usg=AFQjCNHNX897kuDy7SVXAps7pQUo7eToLQ&sig2=lLsyXKVb1pQ-ZPTw5DJRrw

Anyone who doesn't want to understand market economics, wishes to use government force against others, supports regulationism, price-controllism & government dictatorship in the vain hope that that will better their lives IS a commie, that how commies tend to be, they don't want to learn about how market-economics works, they get jealous when others make money, they're anti-business, anti-market, anti-property-rights, pro-regulation, pro-government-dictatorship; these are the kind of people why there's big government breathing down people's necks & chipping away at their rights!

And again, what stops their commie asses from hedging themselves against a price-rise by simply buying an oil-contract? But NOOOOOO, they don't want to take personal responsibility, they always like using government force & they think politicians & bureaucrats will solve all their problems (even the imagined ones :rolleyes:), they think government is the solution to everything! These are very big government people that threaten the liberties of each & every person!

I raised many fundamental questions about this theory that big government socialist/communists will always whine about but NOOOOO - government, force & coercion, those are the only answers they have

Anyone who ACTUALLY believes in small government & wants to understand how prices are self-regulating & how the speculation works, please at least read the chapters "How The Price System Works" & "Stabilizing Commodities" in this PDF-book - http://www.hacer.org/pdf/Hazlitt00.pdf
Whole book is great, it's short & simple & will give people some basic idea of how markets work & how & why prices automatically re-adjust according to supply & demand, & why government, politicians & bureaucrats are NEVER the answer!

[ILUVRP]

i will repeat one more time , i am in no way against commodity trading , i am only against crude oil trading , it is not a free market , if fact if i were to say a goverment controlling a market is a commie goverment then i would look no futher than a goverment that allows trading a supply controlled market.

i don't care if its beans ,corn , bellies or any others , trade them all except crude .

i would add " in the land of the blind a one eyed man would be king ".

[Paul Or Nothing II]

i will repeat one more time , i am in no way against commodity trading , i am only against crude oil trading , it is not a free market , if fact if i were to say a goverment controlling a market is a commie goverment then i would look no futher than a goverment that allows trading a supply controlled market.

i don't care if its beans ,corn , bellies or any others , trade them all except crude .

i would add " in the land of the blind a one eyed man would be king ".

The exchanges are PRIVATE-PROPERTY, what they allow or don't is their business, not government's; if someone doesn't like it, they're free not to trade there but anyone asking for use of government force, regulationism, price-controlism, violation of property-rights due to lack of understanding of economics & a belief in violating others' rights for some (imagined) personal benefit IS a commie; that's what commies do

Again, ANYONE can buy an oil-contract & hedge themselves against the risk of price-rise; if someone is so deluded to think that prices are "controlled" & always rise then they might be in for a nasty surprise during a likely impending deflation; I hope such people buy oil-contracts THINKING that prices always rise & get their asses wiped off the market like they did during the crisis couple of years back when prices plummetted by nearly a $100

As usual though, ignorance is bliss & that's the damn problem of the world, too many ignorant & lazy people unwilling to learn about how the markets work

[ILUVRP]

" As usual though, ignorance is bliss & that's the damn problem of the world, too many ignorant & lazy people unwilling to learn about how the markets work, "



thats why i posted the above links

[Paul Or Nothing II]

" As usual though, ignorance is bliss & that's the damn problem of the world, too many ignorant & lazy people unwilling to learn about how the markets work, "



thats why i posted the above links

Yes, that which asks for more government force, more coercion, more violation of liberties & property rights, yes, that's the solution to everything - so far as commies are concerned :rolleyes:

Yes, let's not learn for ourselves! Let's not use our brains! Let's just believe whoever tells us something - especially Goldman Sachs because they're very honest & truthful you know :rolleyes: And yet these are the kind of "experts" that support the current dishonest monetary structure, the Fed, the welfare-state, more regulation that f'cks up the economy, more taxes & more violations of liberties AND YET yes, we should listen to them - who needs a brain when one can just support whatever others say :rolleyes:

[ILUVRP]

many things you say like the above posting you made i agree with 100% , thats why above all i can't understand how you can be against not trading a goverment controlled commodity.

does it not make you wonder why they don't trade on exchanges diamonds ? could it be because of debeers.

the bad guys of the world get their vast majority of funds from the saudies . or should i say $100 and up oil, the higher oil goes the more they get.

also goldman/jpmorgan/fed res /saudies are the ah's of the world .

[Paul Or Nothing II]

many things you say like the above posting you made i agree with 100% , thats why above all i can't understand how you can be against not trading a goverment controlled commodity.

It's NOT a "government-controlled monopoly" in any economic sense because it CAN'T FORCE you to buy their oil, unlike how US government CAN FORCE you to buy healthcare, & this CHOICE of not to buy is the biggest weapon buyers have in the market, as prices rise, fewer & fewer buyers buy because they've limited amount of money & once the price exceeds the perceived utility derived from a thing, then there's fewer & fewer sales & profits & THAT'S WHY they can't raise prices to $1000 or $million per barrel or whatever
When prices rise, there's extremely high incentive to PRODUCE/SELL MORE so they secure the price by shorting & then go on producing which increases supply to the extent they CAN & that pushes down prices in the future

Let's say there are 10 doctors in a town, now 5 them want to raise prices by "cutting supply", ok, so they reduce work-hours but the other 5 don't! What happens? Yes, ceteris paribus, reduced supply of "doctor-hours" may push prices up but those producing/selling/working MORE will make higher profits at the expense of those who have "cut supply"
That's how it works on the oil-markets too, even if some cut supply, prices may rise temporarily but others will jump on the opportunity & produce/sell MORE & that increases supply & tempers prices, it's only the ones who have cut supply that end up with fewer profits while those who increased supply during higher prices are rewarded with higher profits, this is how markets regulate prices & resources throughout the economy


does it not make you wonder why they don't trade on exchanges diamonds ? could it be because of debeers.

I don't know, they've problem standardizing diamonds, they're not fungible ENOUGH to be standardized but you never know, they might some way of doing it in the future

And besides, even if they were on the exchange, you'd have whined about DeBeers "controlling supply" & therefore demanding a ban on them, etc etc :rolleyes:

Even if there's a single seller of something, so long as people have the CHOICE of not buying, he simply can't charge any arbitrary price because buyers have a certain of the utility & price of the product, it's possible to fool some of them some of the times but not everyone all the time & he'll HAVE TO lower prices to the "optimum price" where he maximizes his sales in a way to get profits at a rate that he couldn't have gotten by investing his capital elsewhere; if he raises prices too high, buyers buy much less & gross profits go down, same with selling too low so he'll be looking to hit the "optimum price" somewhere in between


the bad guys of the world get their vast majority of funds from the saudies . or should i say $100 and up oil, the higher oil goes the more they get.

Just stop buying oil, they'll make fewer profits & "bad guys" may receive less money


also goldman/jpmorgan/fed res /saudies are the ah's of the world .

Again, you just don't know how speculation works, it's that simple! Like most people who don't understand economics, you've hard time swallowing the fact that price merely represent PERCEPTION of utility placed on something by buyers & sellers!

Besides, your "solution" doesn't do sh!t anyway! They just move to another exchange outside US & it would lose business for US exchanges & it may raise costs for US hedgers!

Just like a typical pro-government, pro-force guy you're merely saying something because you THINK something good MIGHT come out of it but you've offered no explanation of what & how it accomplishes anything!

And violating property-rights of others just because you THINK it might help you in some way is NOT pro-freedom position

Moreover, why don't you just buy a contract? ANYONE - ANYONE - can do that to protect oneself against price-rise so what's the point of whining about it!

So far as terrorists go, you can never completely defend yourself against EVERY attack, just as when everyone has gun-rights, some might go killing-spree or something but that's NOT a reason for violating people's legitimate liberties, that's the kind of BS that leads to Patriot Act, NDAA, TSA but government should NEVER have the right to violate liberties in the name of safety! Compromising liberties for the sake of ILLUSION OF SAFETY is NOT worth it!
Besides, Ron has already suggested that it may be wise to simply cut any immigration from countries that are likely to expose US to terrorists & that's fine

[ILUVRP]

"Besides, your "solution" doesn't do sh!t anyway! They just move to another exchange outside US & it would lose business for US exchanges & it may raise costs for US hedgers!"

i guess you did not take the time to read any of the links i posted , but seeing you are so much smarter than any commodity traders ( that do know what they are talking about ) , you would have read gs/jpmorgan are the big traders on ICE , buying and selling to each other every day at the same price, i would guess they are also pumping on the crude oil exchange in dubai.

as far as your comment about the US losing business , i guess if you call what they are doing as business , i say good-by to them , america would be better off w/o them doing what they do.

as far as the hedgers go , now > 80% of contracts traded are speculators .

fyi i now have stock in a few bakken oil co's and have USO , i would rather see crude oil go to $50-60/ba where it should be anyway, also a silver stock SVM .

don't think you know everything

[Aurave]

"Besides, your "solution" doesn't do sh!t anyway! They just move to another exchange outside US & it would lose business for US exchanges & it may raise costs for US hedgers!"

i guess you did not take the time to read any of the links i posted , but seeing you are so much smarter than any commodity traders ( that do know what they are talking about ) , you would have read gs/jpmorgan are the big traders on ICE , buying and selling to each other every day at the same price, i would guess they are also pumping on the crude oil exchange in dubai.

as far as your comment about the US losing business , i guess if you call what they are doing as business , i say good-by to them , america would be better off w/o them doing what they do.

as far as the hedgers go , now > 80% of contracts traded are speculators .

fyi i now have stock in a few bakken oil co's and have USO , i would rather see crude oil go to $50-60/ba where it should be anyway, also a silver stock SVM .

don't think you know everything

Don't think you know anything.

[ILUVRP]

over time we will see how right i am .

everyone has their own ideas about what is wrong , thats what makes this country so great.

[Paul Or Nothing II]

"Besides, your "solution" doesn't do sh!t anyway! They just move to another exchange outside US & it would lose business for US exchanges & it may raise costs for US hedgers!"

i guess you did not take the time to read any of the links i posted , but seeing you are so much smarter than any commodity traders ( that do know what they are talking about ) , you would have read gs/jpmorgan are the big traders on ICE , buying and selling to each other every day at the same price, i would guess they are also pumping on the crude oil exchange in dubai.

You're so pathetically ignorant, it's not even funny!

Them buying/selling has NOTHING to do with prices, if there's shortage in the supply of oil then prices will automatically go up & if there's a fall in demand then prices will fall

You keep believing the "experts", the so called "experts" that defend a stupid centrally-planned monetary regime, regulationism, welfare-state, violation of liberties & what not


as far as your comment about the US losing business , i guess if you call what they are doing as business , i say good-by to them , america would be better off w/o them doing what they do.

What right do you or the government have to violate someone's property-rights? Should government tell YOU what you should grow on your farm or what you should do in your house?

You're a typical commie, you've no respect for others' rights, they're expendable to you so long as you get some (imagined) benefit, it's people like who have no respect for others' rights that's why the country is such a bad shape!


as far as the hedgers go , now > 80% of contracts traded are speculators .

Oh boy, you're ignorant! It'll destroy the liquidity & volumes if there are no speculators, & there will be massive moves in prices in short spells; that was the original problem for which futures markets were brought in but you're either too dumb or too lazy to learn about such basic things, you'd rather rely on "experts" rather than actually do some research & learning on your own


fyi i now have stock in a few bakken oil co's and have USO , i would rather see crude oil go to $50-60/ba where it should be anyway, also a silver stock SVM .

You're so ignorant, it's not even funny!


don't think you know everything

I definitely don't claim to know everything but it should be clear to everyone that YOU don't know ANYTHING about economics, futures market & speculation


Don't think you know anything.

He's a typical commie, low IQ, unable to grasp more complicated issues, already has his mind made up based on propaganda & seeks to justify violation of others' liberties due to some (imaginary) benefit he thinks he'll have


over time we will see how right i am .

everyone has their own ideas about what is wrong , thats what makes this country so great.

What made the country so great is PROPERTY-RIGHTS, something which you don't believe in, you believe & support government dictatorship just because you TIHNK it'll confer some (imaginary) benefit upon you; it's just typical communist mentality of overt self-centeredness & willingness to sacrifice others for their own (imaginary) benefit

[ILUVRP]

paul or zero , you are really as dumb as a bag of rocks , you have been standing in the kool-aid too long , its getting hot outside , put on a hat.

its your ass-hole SCOTUS that said my house could be taken from me and a shopping center could be built . so much for your property rights .

its your ass-hole sc that said our elections don't count , put W in as potus and get 4500 gi's killed for nothing.

i honestly think you are a limpball shill. some day you will learn what is going on , but by then you will have forgotten where you read it .

i am very happy people like you were not in the military , it could be you tried to get in but was 4f , who knows ?

do you know anyone that is not a commmmmmmmmmie , i doubt it , you are a very stupid person or a banker , i don't know which.

[awake]

Speculators are serving a critical pricing function - rapid price adjustment so as to properly regulate, ration and allocate scarce resources. The inflationary counterfeiters have a long list of scape goats to distract from what it is they are doing, the "evil speculator" is one of their favorite.

Ben Bernanke is where the fingers should be pointed; the congress spending queens are a close second.

[The Free Hornet]

the difference is, speculators are using the gas to line their pockets, americans are using gas to fill up their cars... speculation is just that, you aren't actually planning on using the good for anything, just selling it, and thus keeping it from people who need it, that's called greed where I'm from and is what led us into this mess.

Why should you have to fill up a tank to buy oil (gas)? The paper market allows you to buy what you need at the price you want without taking physical delivery. Imagine a farm that uses 1000 gallons of diesel each year. The farmer is concerned with the price going up so he buys on the futures market (speculates). He only has a 100 gallon diesel tank so he never intends to take delivery of all 1000 gallons nor does he want to incur the cost of a 1000 gallon tank (rather he will buy 10 times over the course of a season). The farmer does want price stability and the futures market is how you buy that (innoculation to price fluctuations). He buys 10 contracts for 100 gallons each within the time frame for which he will take delivery. If oil had risen in price, he pays more at the pump but that is offset by the rise in his futures contracts. If oil has fallen in price, he pays less at the pump but that is offset by the worth less-ness or worthlessness of the contracts.

If you think people are being greedy, then are you willing to put your money on the line? You can donate all proceeds to charity. Speculation is a buyer AND a seller. Which is the greedy one?

Also, if you limited this market to only those who have government-approved "justification" (which is exactly what those suggest a ban want, whether they know it or not), then you harm the liquidity of the market and increase the cost to those who have a rational to use the services.

Man how I wish the housing market had more liquidity! Liquidity is a really fucking important thing.

[heavenlyboy34]

Speculation is a force of good in the markets. To illustrate that, consider this hypothetical scenario. Say that a major middle eastern oil producing country is in the midst of political turmoil which could jeopardize production and/or sales of its oil on the global markets. This has happened many times before.

Without speculators, and if only the immediate consumption of oil was the driver of oil prices, oil prices would remain roughly where they were right up until the day the event occurs in said country. When oil production grinds to a halt in said country and supply is strangled, oil prices would shoot up practically overnight worldwide. A side effect of this huge increase in the price of oil is that it would immediately trigger oil companies to begin ramping up production and considering expanding their exploration for new oil wells. The reason for this is that when the price of oil rises, oil wells that were previously too expensive or difficult to reach now become attractive (profitable opportunities) to the oil companies.

Here is the huge problem with this scenario where speculators do not exist. Because there were no speculators in the market slowly bidding up the price of oil as the stifling of production in said country became more and more likely as we approached the date of the "event", oil companies were not given that vital signal from the markets in advance, in the form of higher oil prices, that more production was needed. Thus, there is now a huge delay of weeks, if not months, for the oil that comes from the oil companies increasing production to enter the markets and increase supply. Huge price shocks like these would cause devastating effects in vulnerable companies and industries, since these businesses can't take measures to prepare for them for a price shock like this that occurs almost overnight like they could for a gradual increase in commodity prices over time. Speculators on the other hand would bid up the price of oil in advance in small increments, thus sending that signal to the markets early that more production may be needed in the future. This greatly reduces the volatility in oil prices over time as well as the occurrence of price shocks.

And if that example isn't enough for you or whoever you are trying to educate about the beneficial role of speculators in the market, then consider this. There are two sides to every trade, a short and a long position. If Goldman Sachs suddenly decides overnight that they want to buy up oil contracts and jack up the prices, there are hundreds or thousands of other firms running their own models showing that there is no fundamental (ie macro) basis for the rapid rise in oil prices. These people will then take the opposite side of the trade from Goldman - akin to a short position, where shares are borrowed and sold, driving prices back down to their former levels. Goldman is left holding the bag, and those short traders have now made bank, betting on a decrease in the price of oil. In fact, since a rise in oil prices reduces the demand for oil, the consumers alone will screw over Goldman's plans by consuming less oil. Speculation can work both ways, and a market where both sides of the trade can be taken ensures that it can't be used simply to drive up the price of a valuable commodity like oil.
This^^ EVERYTHING is speculating-even holding dollars or crossing a busy street.

[ILUVRP]

Why should you have to fill up a tank to buy oil (gas)? The paper market allows you to buy what you need at the price you want without taking physical delivery. Imagine a farm that uses 1000 gallons of diesel each year. The farmer is concerned with the price going up so he buys on the futures market (speculates). He only has a 100 gallon diesel tank so he never intends to take delivery of all 1000 gallons nor does he want to incur the cost of a 1000 gallon tank (rather he will buy 10 times over the course of a season). The farmer does want price stability and the futures market is how you buy that (innoculation to price fluctuations). He buys 10 contracts for 100 gallons each within the time frame for which he will take delivery. If oil had risen in price, he pays more at the pump but that is offset by the rise in his futures contracts. If oil has fallen in price, he pays less at the pump but that is offset by the worth less-ness or worthlessness of the contracts.

If you think people are being greedy, then are you willing to put your money on the line? You can donate all proceeds to charity. Speculation is a buyer AND a seller. Which is the greedy one?

Also, if you limited this market to only those who have government-approved "justification" (which is exactly what those suggest a ban want, whether they know it or not), then you harm the liquidity of the market and increase the cost to those who have a rational to use the services.

Man how I wish the housing market had more liquidity! Liquidity is a really fucking important thing.

i had a farm , knew lots of farmers , most like myself have 2 storage tanks , each 500 gal , diesel and gas . honestly i don't think any small farmer (<500a) headged their fuel , most figered how many bushels of corn/soybeans/wheat we would get and did go to the local elevator and headge about 1/2 of our crop if the price was good enough.

also if the chicago price then was a certain price per bu , the grain had to be 15% moisture or we would get docked 3% for each percent above 15%/

so many times farmers dry down the grains/corn , also the elevator would never pay chicago futures price , farmer get about 90% of the chicago price.

i guess to say its all a shell game , no one knows what futures are going to do , thats why they sell about 1/2 their expected crop.

at least its not a rigged mkt like crude, that was the orig idea of futures trading , crude futures started around 1973.

thats why the big speculators don't pump the grain prices up as the farmers would stuff so much grain up their a$$ , its not a controlled supply and its very hard to rig the mkt , some people don't understand this , i feel sorry for them .

i guess all the farmers/truckers/middle and poor class are all commies to some people.

[ILUVRP]

i will post this link , i wish everyone would read it as a top man at exxon/mobil has it correct , although there are some people on this forum that will call him a commie , who knows he could be .

"Because of speculation, today's oil prices of about $100 a barrel have become disconnected from the costs of extraction, which average $11 a barrel worldwide. Pure speculators account for as much as 40 percent of that high price, according to testimony that Rex Tillerson, the chief executive of ExxonMobil, gave to Congress last year."

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=10&sqi=2&ved=0CHYQFjAJ&url=http%3A%2F%2Feconomictimes.indiatimes.com%2Fne ws%2Fnews-by-industry%2Fenergy%2Foil-gas%2Fbanning-middlemen-from-oil-trade-could-drive-down-price-of-crude-by-40%2Farticleshow%2F12620916.cms&ei=w9-MT_qkHOLgiALu0oDXCA&usg=AFQjCNHSYqjyFk8gRE4UxHFywY7cdCA9XA&sig2=iWsdAV8Ar-Xs1FFbNM0Ulg

please , please read this link.
this is a very good read.

[Paul Or Nothing II]

paul or zero , you are really as dumb as a bag of rocks , you have been standing in the kool-aid too long , its getting hot outside , put on a hat.

It's morons like YOU who like to drink communist kool-aid of GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED-MARKETS that are the problem in this world


its your ass-hole SCOTUS that said my house could be taken from me and a shopping center could be built . so much for your property rights .

You living scum, just because someone steals from you, doesn't mean you should support thievery; besides, it's the anti-property-property, anti-market, pro-government-dictatorship scum like YOU who voted for that communist-dictator


its your ass-hole sc that said our elections don't count , put W in as potus and get 4500 gi's killed for nothing.

Again, it's because there are too many pro-government, pro-dictatorship idiots like you


i honestly think you are a limpball shill. some day you will learn what is going on , but by then you will have forgotten where you read it .

You're just a living scum, leeching others' freedoms because you THINK it will benefit you, & NO, I don't even have ANY hopes that you'll ever actually LEARN about economics or markets, because you're too dumb for that, that's the damn problem with the world, too many dumb & lazy idiots lying around & supporting violation of people's rights to life, liberty & property


i am very happy people like you were not in the military , it could be you tried to get in but was 4f , who knows ?

No, I never intended to be a pawn of the government or to kill others just to get the CRUM that government throws at you


do you know anyone that is not a commmmmmmmmmie , i doubt it , you are a very stupid person or a banker , i don't know which.

I reiterate, ANYONE who supports government violating people's rights to their life, liberty & property because of some (imagined) benefit they THINK they'll get, due to low IQ & ignorance of market-economics, are f'cking commies - LIKE YOU

[Paul Or Nothing II]

Speculators are serving a critical pricing function - rapid price adjustment so as to properly regulate, ration and allocate scarce resources. The inflationary counterfeiters have a long list of scape goats to distract from what it is they are doing, the "evil speculator" is one of their favorite.

Ben Bernanke is where the fingers should be pointed; the congress spending queens are a close second.

+1

I don't think socialists/communists are interested in pointing fingers at the government or even at themselves for breeding such government! Oh no! You'll see them pointing fingers at the markets & how government needs to "correct" the "problems" within the market by violating people's life, liberty & property; if they had any brains, they would know that government, politicians & bureaucrats are NEVER the answer & may be they'd looked at how the markets work


Why should you have to fill up a tank to buy oil (gas)? The paper market allows you to buy what you need at the price you want without taking physical delivery. Imagine a farm that uses 1000 gallons of diesel each year. The farmer is concerned with the price going up so he buys on the futures market (speculates). He only has a 100 gallon diesel tank so he never intends to take delivery of all 1000 gallons nor does he want to incur the cost of a 1000 gallon tank (rather he will buy 10 times over the course of a season). The farmer does want price stability and the futures market is how you buy that (innoculation to price fluctuations). He buys 10 contracts for 100 gallons each within the time frame for which he will take delivery. If oil had risen in price, he pays more at the pump but that is offset by the rise in his futures contracts. If oil has fallen in price, he pays less at the pump but that is offset by the worth less-ness or worthlessness of the contracts.

If you think people are being greedy, then are you willing to put your money on the line? You can donate all proceeds to charity. Speculation is a buyer AND a seller. Which is the greedy one?

Also, if you limited this market to only those who have government-approved "justification" (which is exactly what those suggest a ban want, whether they know it or not), then you harm the liquidity of the market and increase the cost to those who have a rational to use the services.

Man how I wish the housing market had more liquidity! Liquidity is a really fucking important thing.

+1


This^^ EVERYTHING is speculating-even holding dollars or crossing a busy street.

+1

Oh! Don't say such things! Or you might get called a slimy speculator or an evil banker! :rolleyes:

Again, commies are too dumb & too lazy so won't bother researching & learning things themselves; their most prominent soiurces of informantion are the "news" outlets & their "expert" views on things & "information" (propaganda) released by the government sources & political "leaders"

They are incapable of thinking for themselves; in fact, thinking in itself could be considered as sin by them!

[Paul Or Nothing II]

i will post this link , i wish everyone would read it as a top man at exxon/mobil has it correct , although there are some people on this forum that will call him a commie , who knows he could be .

"Because of speculation, today's oil prices of about $100 a barrel have become disconnected from the costs of extraction, which average $11 a barrel worldwide. Pure speculators account for as much as 40 percent of that high price, according to testimony that Rex Tillerson, the chief executive of ExxonMobil, gave to Congress last year."

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=10&sqi=2&ved=0CHYQFjAJ&url=http%3A%2F%2Feconomictimes.indiatimes.com%2Fne ws%2Fnews-by-industry%2Fenergy%2Foil-gas%2Fbanning-middlemen-from-oil-trade-could-drive-down-price-of-crude-by-40%2Farticleshow%2F12620916.cms&ei=w9-MT_qkHOLgiALu0oDXCA&usg=AFQjCNHSYqjyFk8gRE4UxHFywY7cdCA9XA&sig2=iWsdAV8Ar-Xs1FFbNM0Ulg

please , please read this link.
this is a very good read.


But it's one thing to have a trading system in which oil industry players place strategic bets on where prices will be months into the future; it's another thing to have a system in which hedge funds and bankers pump billions of purely speculative dollars into commodity exchanges, chasing a limited number of barrels and driving up the price. The same concern explains why the United States government placed limits on pure speculators in grain exchanges after repeated manipulations of crop prices during the Great Depression.

Here's more stupidity from pro-government commies!

I just don't know these pro-government, anti-market commies focus ONLY speculators BUYING contracts & completely ignore the part where they SELL
Sure, when a big hedge-fund BUYS, it'll push prices up because there likely won't be many selling at that prices, ok, prices go up but when do they benefit? They benefit when OTHER PEOPLE, start buying AFTER THEY"VE BOUGHT, which would push prices higher & then the hedge-fund may SELL to lock in the profit BUT agian, when they start SELLING to square off their positions, they'll DRIVE DOWN prices so they're essentially making profits against those who bought after them - but somehow the pro-government commie-brigade NEVER seems to address it because they're too f'cking DUMB to understand such things & they're too f'cking LAZY to learn about the market-process

I mean what else can you expect from people who claim that same two entities buying & selling between themselves causes prices to rise :rolleyes: They think if you & your pal keep buying & selling the same thing to each other back & forth over & over then that increases its price :D I mean how DUMB can these people be???

Furthermore, ok, so price went up for a while but what happened during that time? The sellers (ACTUAL SELLERS) have the opportunity to short contracts & a secure a high price for their product while the prices are high & there's a lot of incentive for them to do so, & they go back to producing, the production-cycle could be months or whatever & when they all produce more, that DRIVES DOWN the prices because of higher production that was initiated by higher prices

And speculators don't just go there & start buying, they're not idiots (& if they're then they'll get wiped out pretty quickly) so they'll ONLY start buying up IF they think there's going to be a future shortage, & the current high prices act as the signal to sellers to produce more & higher prices are their incentive; without such mechanism & futures market, we'd see sudden & wild swings in prices rather than GRADUAL ones

And I ask again, what stops these commie scum to go out there & hedge themselves against price-rise by buying contracts anyway? If they aren't doing it then it's their stupidity that's hurting them more than anything else! And if they're hedged then why whine & moan about it? But you see, commies don't like personal responsibility of people taking care of themselves & doing their own hedging instead they want the almighty government, politicians & bureaucrats to meddle in the markets, which only leads to regulationism, price-controllism, anti-property moves that only make things WORSE, leading to lack of liquidity & volumes, higher hedging-costs & continuous shortages but then commies to dumb anyway so they ask for EVEN MORE intervention by the government :rolleyes:

[ILUVRP]

good grief, i better watch out when i go outside , i think there is a commie under every rock , in every car , they are everywhere , i think i will just stay in bed and cover up my head . this is really bad , you have me convinced . every one that disagree's with you is a commie or living scum.

i guess with all those commies working for exxon , does that mean the money we spend for gasoline is funding the commies? whow , this is worse than i thought.

you really have a problem , you are a very sick american ( ?? ) , i honestly feel sorry for you , i did not know you were a complete idiot until now , i just thought you were stupid , but i misjudged you .

please don't forget to take your pills.

[Paul Or Nothing II]

good grief, i better watch out when i go outside , i think there is a commie under every rock , in every car , they are everywhere , i think i will just stay in bed and cover up my head . this is really bad , you have me convinced . every one that disagree's with you is a commie or living scum.

Is it hard for you to read?
Anyone who supports government violating others' rights to life, liberty & property, often under a misconception that it will benefit them, IS a commie; that's the very nature of socialism/communism

And obviously, you've no understanding of economics nor any compunction in violating others' property-rights using government force because you THINK it will benefit you - commie


i guess with all those commies working for exxon , does that mean the money we spend for gasoline is funding the commies? whow , this is worse than i thought.

You seem incapable of reading & comprehending!


you really have a problem , you are a very sick american ( ?? ) ,

So you want to use government for some imaginary benefit that you THINK you'll get by violating property-rights - & I'm the "sick" one? :rolleyes:

I wish there were more "sick" people in the world & the world would be a lot more freer & prosperous & respect people's rights but unfortunately, the world has too many idiot self-centered commies :(


i honestly feel sorry for you ,

I don't feel sorry for you at all! You were born stupid, nothing can be done about it!


i did not know you were a complete idiot until now ,

On the other hand, I'd recognized that you're an idiot, who's been buying into government & leftist propaganda of being anti-market, anti-property-rights & anti-freedom; & therefore talk about OPEC & speculators instead of studying what's actually going on & understanding the underlying the factors & how markets work


i just thought you were stupid , but i misjudged you .

But your stupidity & ignorance was very clear to me immediately when the first time I saw you talking about OPEC & speculators & the whole economically ignorant anti-market, pro-government rhetoric!


please don't forget to take your pills.

Oh, don't worry! I hope you're taking your intelligence-pills! May be, just may be, you'll become a little more intelligent, enough to understand the market & not to buy into government & socialist/communist anti-market, pro-government-intervention rhetoric

[ILUVRP]

i guess we have beaten this dead horse long enough , i will never convince you or change your mind , nor will you change mine ( i'm right ).

please , everyone that disagrees with you is not a commie , neither are the people at exxon that disagrees with you ( i don't think ).

so have a good day PON ll.

not to kick this horse again but do you think obama is reading this forum ?

President Barack Obama will call on Congress today to bolster federal supervision of oil markets, including increased penalties for market manipulation and greater power for regulators to increase the amount of money traders must put up to back their energy bets.

Obama will make a statement at 11:10 today, according to a White House news release. He will detail the $52 million proposal with Attorney General Eric Holder, according to an administration official.

[Paul Or Nothing II]

i guess we have beaten this dead horse long enough , i will never convince you or change your mind , nor will you change mine ( i'm right ).

please , everyone that disagrees with you is not a commie , neither are the people at exxon that disagrees with you ( i don't think ).

so have a good day PON ll.

Again, your inability to read & dishonesty is clear, where have I said anyone who disagrees with me is a commie?

I've said - Anyone who supports government violating others' rights to life, liberty & property, often under a misconception that it will benefit them, IS a commie; that's the very nature of socialism/communism

Now, it's not my fault that you like violating others' property-rights with government force due to your ignorance of how markets work but that does make you a commie


not to kick this horse again but do you think obama is reading this forum ?

President Barack Obama will call on Congress today to bolster federal supervision of oil markets, including increased penalties for market manipulation and greater power for regulators to increase the amount of money traders must put up to back their energy bets.

Obama will make a statement at 11:10 today, according to a White House news release. He will detail the $52 million proposal with Attorney General Eric Holder, according to an administration official.

Well, well, as I've said, the commie whines about something & the tzar responds! :rolleyes:

Just shows you which side you're on, & again, re-emphasizes the fact that - commie minds, think alike

This is why world has never & probably will never have a free & just system based on protecting everyone's life, liberty & property - Too many god-damned anti-market, anti-freedom, pro-government-dictatorship commies

[The Free Hornet]

thats why the big speculators don't pump the grain prices up as the farmers would stuff so much grain up their a$$ , its not a controlled supply and its very hard to rig the mkt , some people don't understand this , i feel sorry for them .

i guess all the farmers/truckers/middle and poor class are all commies to some people.

Panties in a bunch? I thought you were the commie? But seriously, if you advocate elimination of speculation of any market, it is fair to call you a commie. Statist might be more suitable but commie works fine because you are advocating a police state intervention into free transactions. If you eliminated the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, only the force of government could prevent a new one from arising. Even then, you would then have to fight the black markets and workarounds that spring up to fill the void. You may not like the crude market or the players in it, but the futures market is not a cause for great concern.

Lots of government controlled markets could be criticized. E.g., Intrade and elections - is a more rigged market in existence??? This doesn't mean Intrade should not be left alone.

[The Free Hornet]

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=10&sqi=2&ved=0CHYQFjAJ&url=http%3A%2F%2Feconomictimes.indiatimes.com%2Fne ws%2Fnews-by-industry%2Fenergy%2Foil-gas%2Fbanning-middlemen-from-oil-trade-could-drive-down-price-of-crude-by-40%2Farticleshow%2F12620916.cms&ei=w9-MT_qkHOLgiALu0oDXCA&usg=AFQjCNHSYqjyFk8gRE4UxHFywY7cdCA9XA&sig2=iWsdAV8Ar-Xs1FFbNM0Ulg

please , please read this link.
this is a very good read.

What was good about it? Here is the recommendation:


This is an important step, but limiting speculators in the oil markets doesn't go far enough. Even with the restrictions currently in place, those eight investment banks alone can severely inflate the price of oil. Federal legislation should bar pure oil speculators entirely from commodity exchanges in the United States. And the United States should use its clout to get European and Asian markets to follow its lead, chasing oil speculators from the world's commodity markets.

I don't want to finance a government capable of bullying the whole fucking world. If you think the price of oil is 40% too high (the only substantial claim of the article), then you can make a fortune waiting for the artificially high price to collapse. You are asserting a specific level of manipulation in one direction (up). There are billions of dollars waiting for you if correct.

Here is a better article:


Today's higher prices not only prompt us to conserve more, they also prompt oil producers to intensify efforts to supply more. Oil deposits that are unprofitable to exploit at lower prices become profitable to exploit at higher prices.

http://www.newsday.com/opinion/oped/boudreaux-don-t-curse-the-oil-speculators-1.3645329

Commies - not unlike the rabid environmentalist - love to see government as the solution to any perceived problem. I suppose you believe that we could cut the price of oil by 40% and NOT see a massive uptick in usage (which would promote shortages and price spikes)? Is cheaply available oil increasing or decreasing in supply? Why shouldn't the price be higher? Or is this like the Bernanke's of the world that curse the ever-rising price of gold and silver which lays bare their lies and money printing?

Many a progressive would love for gas, oil, gold, and silver to price controlled and consumption limited (rationed). Thanks for supporting their agenda.

[The Free Hornet]

President Barack Obama will call on Congress today to bolster federal supervision of oil markets, including increased penalties for market manipulation and greater power for regulators to increase the amount of money traders must put up to back their energy bets. [ha ha ha]

We're playing with monopoly money and TPTB are just finding uses for all the extra cash they create. Government ought to just slash every bill and salary check it cuts and tell the recipient to 'stuff it' if they complain. It's a shell game and you're too stupid to realize you're losing.

Speculators as a problem is a joke! My opinon is biased as I have big bets on silver and gold going up, up, up!

[ILUVRP]

"Many a progressive would love for gas, oil, gold, and silver to price controlled and consumption limited (rationed). Thanks for supporting their agenda. "

i have never said anything about controlling any market , raising the margin requirements on only crude oil is not controlling anything , controlling over $100,000 worth of crude with about $6,000 is very stupid , if the true hedgers want to hedge then they could do so with 70-75% magrin and make them take delivery of the crude when the contract expires. if they honestly think crude oil is heading higher ( thats why they headge on the long side ) then they will still do great.

i repeat i am not saying anything about metals-grains-softs or any other commodity , i was trading gold/silver when the CFTC came down on hunt-an arab-a south anerican when they tried to corner the silver market , the cftc raised margins , limited the number of contracts a non heager could have ( hunt should have bought a small silver mine before he started ) , all of which were wrong . hunt went on call for hundards of millions of dollars , it broke him.

who really cares how high silver/gold goes , no person needs either , we can't eat them or burn them in our cars/trucks/trains/planes , some heavy hitters must have been very short the silver mkt so they changed the rules of the game , thats all it is .

if they want to play the crude oil game then they will have to pay more , it would not effect the true hedgers like South West Airlines.

i will add rep boehner had it right when he said obama had all the tools he needs , he has the cftc , to obama its all about getting reelected.

[Paul Or Nothing II]

Panties in a bunch? I thought you were the commie? But seriously, if you advocate elimination of speculation of any market, it is fair to call you a commie. Statist might be more suitable but commie works fine because you are advocating a police state intervention into free transactions. If you eliminated the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, only the force of government could prevent a new one from arising. Even then, you would then have to fight the black markets and workarounds that spring up to fill the void. You may not like the crude market or the players in it, but the futures market is not a cause for great concern.

Lots of government controlled markets could be criticized. E.g., Intrade and elections - is a more rigged market in existence??? This doesn't mean Intrade should not be left alone.


What was good about it? Here is the recommendation:

I don't want to finance a government capable of bullying the whole fucking world. If you think the price of oil is 40% too high (the only substantial claim of the article), then you can make a fortune waiting for the artificially high price to collapse. You are asserting a specific level of manipulation in one direction (up). There are billions of dollars waiting for you if correct.

Here is a better article:

Commies - not unlike the rabid environmentalist - love to see government as the solution to any perceived problem. I suppose you believe that we could cut the price of oil by 40% and NOT see a massive uptick in usage (which would promote shortages and price spikes)? Is cheaply available oil increasing or decreasing in supply? Why shouldn't the price be higher? Or is this like the Bernanke's of the world that curse the ever-rising price of gold and silver which lays bare their lies and money printing?

Many a progressive would love for gas, oil, gold, and silver to price controlled and consumption limited (rationed). Thanks for supporting their agenda.


We're playing with monopoly money and TPTB are just finding uses for all the extra cash they create. Government ought to just slash every bill and salary check it cuts and tell the recipient to 'stuff it' if they complain. It's a shell game and you're too stupid to realize you're losing.

Speculators as a problem is a joke! My opinon is biased as I have big bets on silver and gold going up, up, up!

*You must spread some reputation around before giving it to The Free Hornet again*

Damn! I owe you a few +1 :D

He has absolutely no understanding of how prices work & how speculation works, all he knows is using government force to facilitate some IMAGINED benefit he THINKS he'll receive - typical commie scum :(

These commie scum are the reason we don't have our freedoms, these pro-government, anti-market, anti-freedom are the very reason that we live a life controlled by the stupid government, politicians & bureaucrats :mad:

[ILUVRP]

commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum

don't you know anything else , in the military i had a TS clearence , i doubt if you have any idea how tough it is to get one , i also had one for over 25 yrs working on things keep a eye on ah's like you.

i am retired now , just golf a lot , but it looks like you don't work , just beat up the keyboard all day , or you could be on unemployment drawing food stamps. if not get a job.

[Paul Or Nothing II]

i have never said anything about controlling any market ,

Government trying to control prices & interfering in the private businesses without them violating anyone's rights, that IS controlling the market


raising the margin requirements on only crude oil is not controlling anything ,

:rolleyes:
It means CONTROLLING THE MARGINS, the private market should decide what margins are sufficient as it's their property but I suppose commies don't like freer markets & property-rights


controlling over $100,000 worth of crude with about $6,000 is very stupid ,

You muppet, it ALSO means people SELLING $100,000 at $6,000 margin, which BALANCES THE EQUATION; nobody buys until someone sells

Anti-market commie scum always focus on the BUY side but always overlook the SELL side, as usual the sell-side just doesn't exist for them


if the true hedgers want to hedge then they could do so with 70-75% magrin and make them take delivery of the crude when the contract expires. if they honestly think crude oil is heading higher ( thats why they headge on the long side ) then they will still do great.

You brickhead, they could easily invest that additional margin-money elsewhere more productively to help the economy, why should that money be stuck just because some economically illiterate commie scum thinks it's the "right" margin; that's the central-planning we're talking about where government decides how business "should" run; what else to expect from commies!
Besides, raising margins will drastically reduce liquidity & volumes & therefore spreads will be larger & massive uncertain moves, will destabilize the hedgers & will hurt the producers by way of higher costs; all because commie central-planners think it's the "right" margin


i repeat i am not saying anything about metals-grains-softs or any other commodity ,

It won't long before other commie scum will demand more "regulation" elsewhere, that's the nature of government, it always tries to grow


i was trading gold/silver when the CFTC came down on hunt-an arab-a south anerican when they tried to corner the silver market , the cftc raised margins , limited the number of contracts a non heager could have ( hunt should have bought a small silver mine before he started ) , all of which were wrong . hunt went on call for hundards of millions of dollars , it broke him.

I guess you didn't notice that many of their board-members were short on silver & that's why they brought Hunt down, otherwise they would've gotten wiped out
And why should the government tell anyone where to put their money & what they can or can't buy - oh wait, you support communist-dictatorship!


if they want to play the crude oil game then they will have to pay more , it would not effect the true hedgers like South West Airlines.

You muppet, they'll be affected by the price spikes instead of smoother price-discovery process that liquid markets lead to but you're too economically illiterate to anything about that, comrade!


i will add rep boehner had it right when he said obama had all the tools he needs , he has the cftc , to obama its all about getting reelected.

Oh! Look at the commie egging his tzar!


who really cares how high silver/gold goes , no person needs either , we can't eat them or burn them in our cars/trucks/trains/planes

Great! Now, everybody here knows what an economically illiterate moron you are! :D:D:D

[Paul Or Nothing II]

commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum commie scum

don't you know anything else , in the military i had a TS clearence , i doubt if you have any idea how tough it is to get one , i also had one for over 25 yrs working on things keep a eye on ah's like you.

i am retired now , just golf a lot , but it looks like you don't work , just beat up the keyboard all day , or you could be on unemployment drawing food stamps. if not get a job.

Don't worry about me, commie! I don't believe in freeloading like you do!

I hope you'll love your misery when your tzar controls & destroys every part of the market!

[ILUVRP]

if i were long a contract and sold it there is no margin ,only when i bought the contract or shorted a contract.

whow , now you are worring about the CBOT members being wiped out by freetrade like bunker hunt , he's just buying silver ( sort of like GS/JPMORGAN ) , i just have a hard time finding out what you want and which way you want things to be.

did you forget to take your pills again?

don't worry , i will remind you every day.

[Brian4Liberty]

Treatment of Others: Site members are expected to use the following standards in the treatment of others:

+ Be respectful of others users.
+ No insulting, antagonizing or personally attacking other users.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?22-Site-Policies-Usage-Guidelines-and-Other-Important-Information

[ILUVRP]

Don't worry about me, commie! I don't believe in freeloading like you do!

I hope you'll love your misery when your tzar controls & destroys every part of the market!

i have always voted for RP , it is too bad he won't win but i will write his name in as always.

i guess to win he would have to be a chicken-hawk neo-con , you can understand that .

[The Free Hornet]

if they want to play the crude oil game then they will have to pay more , it would not effect the true hedgers like South West Airlines.

So you are advocating a government solution...

How is Southwest a "true hedger"? I buy ~$2000 in gas annually, can I play without risking your margin wrath, accusations of greed, or the risk of taking physical delivery? I doubt I'm zoned to store crude oil.

Here is more to read in defense of speculation:

http://articles.marketwatch.com/2008-06-29/news/30801470_1_speculators-futures-markets-commodity-prices
http://www.thefreemanonline.org/columns/hoarders-speculators-and-other-scapegoats/

Your school of thought is old - possibly ancient. Are you of the opinion that all this time we ought to be paying 40% less? This school of thought also claims that oil use is inelastic so that a 40% price decrease would not be paired with an increase in consumption. That people won't change their behavior at $2.40/gallon vs $4/gallon....

[ILUVRP]

lets get crude oil up to $200/ba and gasoline to $8/ga , then we would use less.

read up on how much crude oil we have in storage in Oklahoma , also read how the US uses 400 million gal of gas a day , at the same time we export about 120 million gallons of gasoline a day .

there is no shortage of crudes / cracks

[The Free Hornet]

lets get crude oil up to $200/ba and gasoline to $8/ga , then we would use less.

read up on how much crude oil we have in storage in Oklahoma , also read how the US uses 400 million gal of gas a day , at the same time we export about 120 million gallons of gasoline a day .

there is no shortage of crudes / cracks

Why would I read about reserves (government or private)? The more reserves we have, the bigger a buffer we have to any shocks. If anything, reserves would likely lower the price (read about hoarders in an emergency, for example). Regarding our export of gasoline. We important oil and we export gas because gas is a refined product made in the USA and oil is a raw material import. We don't export gas due to an abundance of oil but due to an abundance of highly efficient refining capacity. We have Standard Oil to thank for that and competitors quickly realized that high efficiency - not government intervention - is the best way to compete. That legacy serves us to this day.


Edit: ILUVRP, I read about Cushing (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cushing,_Oklahoma#Oil_industry). What was your point? So they have "5-10%" of our oil reserves. That's what they do. Should I complain about the price of eggs because some trading post has lots of eggs?


As the oil fields started to run dry, starting in the 1940s, production and refining became less important. However, the maze of pipelines and tanks that had been built led to the NYMEX choosing Cushing as the official delivery point for its light sweet crude futures contract in 1983.

Facts and knowledge are distinct entities.

[ILUVRP]

"we export gas because gas is a refined product"

thats great info , why don't we just export 400 million gal a day , that would drive gas to $25/gal , we would drive less , now i am starting to understand how the system works.

as far as chushing goes , they have all the crude oil they can hold . i am trying to say there is no shortage of crude oil in america , or gasoline.

[The Free Hornet]

"we export gas because gas is a refined product"

thats great info , why don't we just export 400 million gal a day , that would drive gas to $25/gal , we would drive less , now i am starting to understand how the system works.

as far as chushing goes , they have all the crude oil they can hold . i am trying to say there is no shortage of crude oil in america , or gasoline.

You may have to close your eyes for this one Brian.

First, America is a net importer of crude:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1398&d=1334769906

There may not be a shortage due to untapped fields, but the strategic reserves are only sufficient to cover a few months of imports although it would take a half year to empty them:


The United States maintains a Strategic Petroleum Reserve at four sites in the Gulf of Mexico, with a total capacity of 727 million barrels (115.6×106 m3) of crude oil. The maximum total withdrawal capability from the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve is 4.4 million barrels (700,000 m3) per day. This is roughly 32% of US oil imports, or 75% of imports from OPEC.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_the_United_States

Thinking the US has enough oil is like thinking you have enough gas for a cross-country trip because your Ford Taurus has a full tank. I.e., idiotic.

Regarding refining, courtesy of Uncle Sam, here is the breakdown in the cost of gasoline:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1399&d=1334770296

We export gas because we have an excess of refining capacity. If we didn't export gas, we would either make less or look for ways to use, sell, or store the excess. Or we start shutting down refinery lines for no good reason. What affect would this have on the market? The price of gas would go up overseas. People not currently in the gas exportation business would sniff a huge opportunity!!!

You are correct that we don't have shortages, but how is that relevant? We have as much gas and oil as people are willing to buy at the present prices.

What are you trying to say? You went from bitch-and-moan mode about speculators to talking about oil reserves and refining capacity. These are not pertinent to your global quest to regulate* oil speculating. These are people doing exactly what you falsely and maliciously pretended to want: taking physical delivery of the fucking oil.

Make a point or troll somewhere else.




* I say regulate because you can't end speculation. You can control to a degree who legally profits but speculation is a fact of life. Deal with it.


1399

1398

[ILUVRP]

we give big oil companies over $4 billion every year , they export about 120 millions of gasoline to keep prices high ( and also make more money ) , i guess the next time they need our military to help them out and protect their overseas interests they should get help from the countries they are selling gasoline to.

does anyone think that if Ron Paul were POTUS he would allow giving big oil co's $4b a year and keep bases all over the world in part to protect oil co's interests?

there is one answer , the answer is NO.

[heavenlyboy34]

we give big oil companies over $4 billion every year , they export about 120 millions of gasoline to keep prices high ( and also make more money ) , i guess the next time they need our military to help them out and protect their overseas interests they should get help from the countries they are selling gasoline to.

does anyone think that if Ron Paul were POTUS he would allow giving big oil co's $4b a year and keep bases all over the world in part to protect oil co's interests?

there is one answer , the answer is NO.
srsly? Big Oil's CEO compensation is none of your damn business. If the dollar were sound, you could get gas for ~a dime/gallon (check the dollar/pm ratio to verify for yourself).

[The Free Hornet]

we give big oil companies over $4 billion every year , they export about 120 millions of gasoline to keep prices high ( and also make more money ) , i guess the next time they need our military to help them out and protect their overseas interests they should get help from the countries they are selling gasoline to.

does anyone think that if Ron Paul were POTUS he would allow giving big oil co's $4b a year and keep bases all over the world in part to protect oil co's interests?

there is one answer , the answer is NO.

I thought before maybe you were full of facts and just lacked wisdom. Now I don't know what you're full of. The actual gasoline exports are much much, much higher and dwarf $4 billion dollars:


In 2011, U.S. refiners exported 117 million gallons per day of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other petroleum products, up from 40 million gallons per day a decade earlier.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/story/2011-12-31/united-states-export/52298812/1

To answer your questions, gas is expensive because oil is expensive. Why you bitch about exports is beyond me but it is PROOF you don't care about stopping your statist interventionalism with oil speculators (who could easily be replaced by gas or diesel speculators - what's your thought on that if you have one?). Speculators are just a scapegoat for a power grab.

Your so-called $4 billion in subsidies must be contrasted with an $88 billion dollar export industry. In 2006, the Federal gas tax alone raised $25 billion (link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_taxes_in_the_United_States)). Local taxes double that number. ~$50 billion in fuel taxes to an unsourced $4 billion in subsidies. Who is getting subsidized here?

Regarding overseas exploits, although I don't doubt some malfeasance in the oil industry (*cough* Haliburton *cough*), there is no need to "control" the oil. As regards the oil industry, other countries have two things: dirt and oil. They can't eat dirt so they have to sell the oil. They can't refine as efficiently as us (!) so we get a piece of that action too. The US as a whole did not profit from the wars. For proof, our prices have doubled, our debt has quadrupled or more, and we don't have a lot more cash to show for it. The war is so irrational, it is very hard for me to think there are many winners. It is raw, unadultered irrationality. The people making massive profits are just a pen stroke away from going out of a very nasty business. It is not unlike socialism, a massive exercise in the misallocation of resources.

Again, I don't think our overseas bases or exploits benefit the oil industry specifically but I am happy to see evidence to the contrary. Obviously, the wars should end and the superfluous bases closed ASAP. Regardless, this has ZERO to do with your gripe of oil speculation which was shot down in flames. Big government needs oil more than oil needs big government. They'd be happy with government at its 1889 size.

1) Do you still support specific limits on oil speculation?
2) Do you think Ron Paul does as well? [duh, no]

We know Ron Paul would not support your statist plans to end oil speculation. You put forth a proposition that disagrees with his limited-government platform. So why the fuck do you ask, "does anyone think that if Ron Paul were POTUS he would allow giving big oil co's $4b a year and keep bases all over the world in part to protect oil co's interests?". You accept him as an authority for argumentation only when convenient? Do you not realize he would say - more or less - "Well as President I can bring the troops home - the commander in chief has that authority. The tax policies and subsidies have to be changed in Congress but I would definitely support ending BOTH the subsidies AND the taxes!".

[heavenlyboy34]

I thought before maybe you were full of facts and just lacked wisdom. Now I don't know what you're full of. The actual gasoline exports are much much, much higher and dwarf $4 billion dollars:



To answer your questions, gas is expensive because oil is expensive. Why you bitch about exports is beyond me but it is PROOF you don't care about stopping your statist interventionalism with oil speculators (who could easily be replaced by gas or diesel speculators - what's your thought on that if you have one?). Speculators are just a scapegoat for a power grab.

Your so-called $4 billion in subsidies must be contrasted with an $88 billion dollar export industry. In 2006, the Federal gas tax alone raised $25 billion (link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_taxes_in_the_United_States)). Local taxes double that number. ~$50 billion in fuel taxes to an unsourced $4 billion in subsidies. Who is getting subsidized here?

Regarding overseas exploits, although I don't doubt some malfeasance in the oil industry (*cough* Haliburton *cough*), there is no need to "control" the oil. As regards the oil industry, other countries have two things: dirt and oil. They can't eat dirt so they have to sell the oil. They can't refine as efficiently as us (!) so we get a piece of that action too. The US as a whole did not profit from the wars. For proof, our prices have doubled, our debt has quadrupled or more, and we don't have a lot more cash to show for it. The war is so irrational, it is very hard for me to think there are many winners. It is raw, unadultered irrationality. The people making massive profits are just a pen stroke away from going out of a very nasty business. It is not unlike socialism, a massive exercise in the misallocation of resources.

Again, I don't think our overseas bases or exploits benefit the oil industry specifically but I am happy to see evidence to the contrary. Obviously, the wars should end and the superfluous bases closed ASAP. Regardless, this has ZERO to do with your gripe of oil speculation which was shot down in flames. Big government needs oil more than oil needs big government. They'd be happy with government at its 1889 size.

1) Do you still support specific limits on oil speculation?
2) Do you think Ron Paul does as well? [duh, no]

We know Ron Paul would not support your statist plans to end oil speculation. You put forth a proposition that disagrees with his limited-government platform. So why the fuck do you ask, "does anyone think that if Ron Paul were POTUS he would allow giving big oil co's $4b a year and keep bases all over the world in part to protect oil co's interests?". You accept him as an authority for argumentation only when convenient? Do you not realize he would say - more or less - "Well as President I can bring the troops home - the commander in chief has that authority. The tax policies and subsidies have to be changed in Congress but I would definitely support ending BOTH the subsidies AND the taxes!".
"You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to The Free Hornet again." :( Will hit ya with some +rep ASAP.

[ILUVRP]

HB "srsly? Big Oil's CEO compensation is none of your damn business. "

show me where i have EVER said anything about CEO compensation . i said co's ( companies ).

i agree it is no one's business except share holders / board of directors what any ceo makes.



TFH , what is it i am missing here , i did say above that we export about 120 million a day , the $4 billion that the american tax payer give to oil companies is in the form of sub's.

good grief .

as far as a sound $$ goes , as far back as i can remember the only sound currency in the world is the swiss franc.

the dollar has been a POS since 1913 , it always will be .

[Paul Or Nothing II]

1) Do you still support specific limits on oil speculation?
2) Do you think Ron Paul does as well? [duh, no]

We know Ron Paul would not support your statist plans to end oil speculation. You put forth a proposition that disagrees with his limited-government platform. So why the fuck do you ask, "does anyone think that if Ron Paul were POTUS he would allow giving big oil co's $4b a year and keep bases all over the world in part to protect oil co's interests?". You accept him as an authority for argumentation only when convenient? Do you not realize he would say - more or less - "Well as President I can bring the troops home - the commander in chief has that authority. The tax policies and subsidies have to be changed in Congress but I would definitely support ending BOTH the subsidies AND the taxes!".

+1

We can clearly see how low IQ, anti-market, pro-government commies exhibit cognitive dissonance & jump randomly from one topic to another!

As for Ron, his position is VERY clear, has been for decades now, he wants less government, less regulation & allow the markets to work themselves out & he believes government's ONLY role is to protect liberty, that is, deal with people violating others' life, liberty or property but then anti-property communists wouldn't know anything about property-rights

Anyways, so he'd let the exchanges & speculators mind their own business & would never try to regulate the prices, margins or interfere in the markets in any way because he believes in PROPERTY-RIGHTS but apparently commies' IQ is too low to recognize such things

Here's Ron talking about the bubble, bailouts & DERIVETIVES MARKET SPECULATION, which got a lot of attention from anti-market, pro-government, pro-regulation communists, who always want government to "regulate" & takeover everything, more government is ALWAYS their answer, not the markets but Ron understands that it was the Fed & government that was the problem so "regulating" the speculation won't do sh!t; similarly just as right now, it's the US-Iran friction that's causing most of the uncertainty in the oil markets & thereby speculators gearing up for a possible future shortage, which is what they're supposed to do anyway - to take risks on behalf of producers/consumers about what the future supply & demand situation might be; those who predict correctly are rewarded while those incorrect lose money & are eliminated from the market sooner rather than later


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjbR8uFsq98

[ILUVRP]

PON 2 , why does someone that disagrees w/u a commie , you really have a problem .

i will remind you today , don't forget to take your pills .

[ILUVRP]

HB "srsly? Big Oil's CEO compensation is none of your damn business. "

show me where i have EVER said anything about CEO compensation . i said co's ( companies ).

i agree it is no one's business except share holders / board of directors what any ceo makes.



TFH , what is it i am missing here , i did say above that we export about 120 million a day , the $4 billion that the american tax payer give to oil companies is in the form of sub's.

good grief .

as far as a sound $$ goes , as far back as i can remember the only sound currency in the world is the swiss franc.

the dollar has been a POS since 1913 , it always will be .

i don't want HB and TFH to miss my answer , they may think i forgot about them .

[Aurave]

"Many a progressive would love for gas, oil, gold, and silver to price controlled and consumption limited (rationed). Thanks for supporting their agenda. "

i have never said anything about controlling any market , raising the margin requirements on only crude oil is not controlling anything , controlling over $100,000 worth of crude with about $6,000 is very stupid , if the true hedgers want to hedge then they could do so with 70-75% magrin and make them take delivery of the crude when the contract expires. if they honestly think crude oil is heading higher ( thats why they headge on the long side ) then they will still do great.

i repeat i am not saying anything about metals-grains-softs or any other commodity , i was trading gold/silver when the CFTC came down on hunt-an arab-a south anerican when they tried to corner the silver market , the cftc raised margins , limited the number of contracts a non heager could have ( hunt should have bought a small silver mine before he started ) , all of which were wrong . hunt went on call for hundards of millions of dollars , it broke him.

who really cares how high silver/gold goes , no person needs either , we can't eat them or burn them in our cars/trucks/trains/planes , some heavy hitters must have been very short the silver mkt so they changed the rules of the game , thats all it is .

if they want to play the crude oil game then they will have to pay more , it would not effect the true hedgers like South West Airlines.

i will add rep boehner had it right when he said obama had all the tools he needs , he has the cftc , to obama its all about getting reelected.

Precious metals have no convenience yield. For someone who acts like they know something about futures markets and crude oil it seems obvious you would know that, "speculators" can "corner" and "manipulate" precious metals but its just not possible with anything else. Soybeans, wheat, crude, what ever.

[luisOlsen]

It can be yes and it can also be no. it depends on a country's economy.

[ILUVRP]

i sort of disagree that "speculators" can "corner" and "manipulate" precious metals " , the reason being the metal g/s , miners ( there are hundards and hundards of them ) know pretty much their costs / yields and if the price gets too high for them because of pumping up the price of gold , the miners will sell forward more of their production , thus driving down the price .

also there is a threat of goverments selling gold , the metat markets are really one of the most stable markets being traded. it will have spikes (both ways ) now and then , there is always the threat of people cashing out of the big gold funds , making funds sell gold to raise cash.

metal mkts to me are one of the more stable mkts , unless there is a complete melt down in the world . over time gold should go up in a steady climb as all the easy to find/mine has already been found.

as far as grains , there is always the weather scare , too much rain/too little rain .

[Black Flag]

Speculators cannot "corner" a market.

For every buyer there is a seller.

For everyone thinks oil is going up, so they buy now, there is a seller thinking oil is going down, so the sell now.

To blame the cost of a good being manipulated upwards by such a scheme is strange.

[Aurave]

i sort of disagree that "speculators" can "corner" and "manipulate" precious metals " , the reason being the metal g/s , miners ( there are hundards and hundards of them ) know pretty much their costs / yields and if the price gets too high for them because of pumping up the price of gold , the miners will sell forward more of their production , thus driving down the price .

also there is a threat of goverments selling gold , the metat markets are really one of the most stable markets being traded. it will have spikes (both ways ) now and then , there is always the threat of people cashing out of the big gold funds , making funds sell gold to raise cash.

metal mkts to me are one of the more stable mkts , unless there is a complete melt down in the world . over time gold should go up in a steady climb as all the easy to find/mine has already been found.

as far as grains , there is always the weather scare , too much rain/too little rain .

I cannot comprehend your idiocy, it now seems obvoius that you are just a troll with the handle "ILUVRP" set out to antagonize people. You argue crude futures markets are being manipulated by "speculators", and now that I mention that precious metals are the only commodities that are theoretically even susceptible to the type of manipulation you think is happening for crude, you go on and disagree with everything you previously said.

Obvious troll is finally obvious. At least I hope, otherwise you are a functioning mildly retarded individual.

[Madison320]

I think the fact that commodities can change hands at almost no cost is a good thing. Why would a zero cost transaction raise the price of the final good? All these people that think forcing you to take physical delivery would lower the cost are wrong. THAT would drive up the cost.

[ILUVRP]

I cannot comprehend your idiocy, it now seems obvoius that you are just a troll with the handle "ILUVRP" set out to antagonize people. You argue crude futures markets are being manipulated by "speculators", and now that I mention that precious metals are the only commodities that are theoretically even susceptible to the type of manipulation you think is happening for crude, you go on and disagree with everything you previously said.

Obvious troll is finally obvious. At least I hope, otherwise you are a functioning mildly retarded individual.

i have never said metals/grains/softs are be manipulated , they cannot be as they trade in a free market , not so with crude oil , look back at history and see how many times the saudies have reduced production because they thought world prices were too low , they have said they will never produce over 10 million ba/day.

at least read how on ICE gs buys and sells crude with jpmorgan to keep the price of crude up .

no person has to buy gold/silver/grains/beef/hogs/treasuries , we do have to eat but we can select what we want , everyone needs fuel .

free markets will always work , prices will even out . crude oil is not a free traded market.

just because people have to pay $4/gal for gas does not mean its worth $4/gal , ask a over the road trucker how he is doing. all other commodities are only worth what someone will give for them.

let me add , i am on 2 other forums , and 6 car forums , i have never seen people call others names because they disagree with them , calling people names does not make the name caller more correct.

[The Free Hornet]

i have never said metals/grains/softs are be manipulated , they cannot be as they trade in a free market , not so with crude oil , look back at history and see how many times the saudies have reduced production because they thought world prices were too low , they have said they will never produce over 10 million ba/day.

at least read how on ICE gs buys and sells crude with jpmorgan to keep the price of crude up .

no person has to buy gold/silver/grains/beef/hogs/treasuries , we do have to eat but we can select what we want , everyone needs fuel .

free markets will always work , prices will even out . crude oil is not a free traded market.

Here is a list of oil producing countries (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production). It looks a lot like a list of countries. If the Saudi's are committed to a steady rate of production (as you suggest), then they are doing the EXACT OPPOSITE of what would swing or manipulate the market wildly one way or another. They're like playing poker with a guy who has his cards face up on the table for all to see.

As far as the Saudi's not selling oil if the price is too low, hell yeah I say! When someone offers a too low price, you walk. Your complaint is actually evidence of a free market even if the players are unfree countries.

[Saudi Arabia works to settle oil markets (http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2012/03/20/Saudi-Arabia-works-to-settle-oil-markets/UPI-72281332243480/)]

You bemoan that it's not a free market while you insist on trade restrictions that would ensure that it become even more unfree: regulating speculators, harping on gas exportation, oddly concerned with physical reserves in Oklahoma, and demanding that foreign entities sell more oil because you think they can.

Also, in your argument for gold being a free market distinct from oil, you present solid evidence to the contrary:


also there is a threat of goverments selling gold , the metat markets are really one of the most stable markets being traded.

Gold is far more government controlled than is oil:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve

Are you sure you are complaining about the right unfree market? It just seems like you have an oil bug up your ass. Gold is something mined/refined very slowly with accumulation largely in government hands (or central bankers). The miners are small in comparison. On the other hand, oil is controlled by production. The actual reserves are dwarfed by usage. Rebels can storm oil fields but I have yet to see the rebels that storm a central bank.

You have not presented any evidence for oil as an exception to the rule. More so, you failure to understand basic economics and do not recognize the value of oil speculation regardless of the market's underlying nature.



Edit/added: SERIOUSLY! How can you complain about private reserves of oil in Oklahoma!?!?!? Is your definition of a free market one with all the major reserves held by government entities like with Gold? Do you think a free market is one where people are not allowed to speculate and are forced to sell the moment they come into contact with a commodity at a price to your liking?

[The Free Hornet]

Sorry to keep posting, but I must point out that what ILUVRP claims can't happen in gold, has happend in gold and he admits as much in the second quote:


i have never said metals/grains/softs are be manipulated , they cannot be as they trade in a free market ,


also there is a threat of goverments selling gold , the metat markets are really one of the most stable markets being traded

In The Richter Report (http://www.therichterreport.com/content.php?id=238&menu_id=15), it is suggested that Greenspan openly admits to gold price manipulation:


On July 24, 1998, Alan Greenspan testified before the House Committee on Banking and Financial Services. In pertinent part, he testified as follows: "...private counterparties [cannot] restrict supplies of gold, another commodity whose derivatives are often traded over-the-counter, where central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise." Please think about the words you have just read. Mr. Greenspan ADMITTED that central banks will lease gold into the market if the price of gold rises! That is a confession!

I am *not* complaining about the manipulation of gold. If it is occuring, we stand to profit by knowing the price is artificially low. The point is that there is zero evidence to distinguish gold from oil as an unmanipulated or free commodity. In fact, it is far easier to manipulate gold than oil. A few central bankers meeting privately have far more power than thousands of individual well operators scattered over a hundred countries.

ILUVRP's definition of a free market, is a government-dominated and controlled market that masks our inflationary policies. They want to rob us blind but not so quickly as to cause us to protect our assets.


Edit/Added: From 1933 to 1974 it was illegal to possess substantial quantities of gold in this country (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102). Is this the free market at work? Or is it free now but it wasn't then?

I've read about FDR doing this in the past, but it never quite sank in - the ramifications. Greatest generation my ass!

With the taint of this, how can that market be free? Wikipedia says most gold holders sent the money to Switzerland but what does that imply regarding "ownership" given the value of physical possession? Again, I am not complaining about the unfree nature of the market. I am just happy we have a market now. But compared to gold, the oil industry looks like the Girl Scouts.

[Brian4Liberty]

How does monetary inflation effect futures? Does it change the risk?

[ILUVRP]

Every time you pump a $4.00 gallon of gasoline, you put a $1.60 in the pockets of oil speculators.
"Excessive speculation on energy trading facilities is the fuel that is driving this runaway train in crude oil prices." That's what Mr. Gerry Ramm, Senior Executive, Inland Oil Company told the Senate Commerce, Science and Technology Committee


i could post 5 or 6 papers with ceo's/presidents/vice presidents of gs/ennron/marathon and many others saying the same thing about excessive speculation and how its adding $50/ba to crude , but whats the use , no one cares .

my point is raise the margin requirement to 60-75 % , now it is less than $6000 to control over $100,000 worth of crude , also make it that if the money is not in the commodity account to cover the trade , the trade can't be made.

i agree that countries can and do lease gold , the interest rates for the lease's is on kitco home page , left side.

i did say goverments always have the threat to sell gold , who knows why , just trying to help their own currency look better , they have found its a waste of time.the US have had scheuled gold sales in the past , also england sold of a lot of their gold at about $280/oz 10-13 yrs ago . look where its gotten them.

does anyone really care if gold is $5,000/oz , i think 99.9% of the people would like it , goverments would hate it.

also i am not complaining about the oil being stored in chushing,ok , all i am saying they could have 10x that much oil( that would be great ) , the price of crude gasoline would be the same.

the high price of crude oil / gasoline is not because we have a shortage , i have never said anything bad about the oil companies/producers (which i have stock in ) , they are not the problem .

[Aurave]

let me add , i am on 2 other forums , and 6 car forums , i have never seen people call others names because they disagree with them , calling people names does not make the name caller more correct.

I'm not calling you names because I disagree with you. You could be talking about unicorns and disagree it would not matter. It's your inability to understand the implications of the inferences you happen to make and the things you say. It bears, in all honesty, resemblance to mild retardation. I'm glad you are functional and can type sentences online, but it's apparent time spent in any type of dialogue with you would most likely be time wasted.

[Aurave]

How does monetary inflation effect futures? Does it change the risk?

Entities that participate in futures markets anticipate expected inflationary effects and that is added into the cost of the contract. This assumption is bundled into the interest premium of any contract. It is very odd to see a futures price that is lower than the spot price of a commodity for any lengthy period of time, it means a major event has or is expected to take place. In a normal market, over time, the price of a futures contract will slowly converge (from high to low) downwards to the spot price. All things being equal, there is nothing inherently changing the value of that crude futures contract as it nears its delivery, the price drops as it matures are expected as the value of that "interest premium" diminishes.

Beyond that, monetary inflation effects are the same generally as they would be for anything else.

[ILUVRP]

I'm not calling you names because I disagree with you. You could be talking about unicorns and disagree it would not matter. It's your inability to understand the implications of the inferences you happen to make and the things you say. It bears, in all honesty, resemblance to mild retardation. I'm glad you are functional and can type sentences online, but it's apparent time spent in any type of dialogue with you would most likely be time wasted.

one thing , i have never said anything about stopping trading of crude oil futures , i am just saying raise the margins to about 70% from 5-6% of contract value for speculators , as far as TRUE hedgers that take delivery , the margin could be 6% as it is now , its sort of like las vegas , there are $5 to $500 blackjack games , even higher , if you want to play the game you pay.


how is this not free trade , you just have to pay more to play.now about 80% of all trades are specs , not much true hedgeing . at least we will find out what the true value of crude/cracks is.

as far as the distance months prices being higher than the spot month , in gold there is a storage cost of the gold and interest on the money you did not put up on the contract , lets say in a normal market sept gold contract is $12 more than a june contract , 3 months 12$ is $4 a month storeage/interest charge. at times there will be a backwardation price where there may be a delivery problem with the spot month and the spot month will trade higher than farther out months. like said above if someone buys december gold contract it may trade $30 (wag) more than spot gold , if the spot price of gold in dec is the same as it is now you will lost $30 a oz as the price of gold will drop about $4/oz if the spot price remains constant.

the above does not hold true with grains or meats as they tend to be more seasonal .

[Texan4Life]

A man in a line up for gas is interviewed.

Interviewer: "Why are you here?"
Man: "Well, I heard gas prices are going up tomorrow, so I want to fill my car and all my spare gas jugs before the price goes up"

Interviewer: "Why do you think the price is going up?"
Man: "It's all those damn speculators buying and selling based on what they think the price and supply will be in the future, they screw up the market!"

lol.. winning