380 Delegates for Ron Paul

[goRPaul]

According to Lemon Global (http://lemonglobalnews.blogspot.com/2012/04/ron-paul-has-380-delegates.html):

http://sphotos.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/542889_185389608244844_135882309862241_277781_7442 60467_n.jpg

I don't have a clue as to their accuracy. They claim they are counting more unbound delegates for RP than the Associated Press is giving him credit for. We truly won't know where the count is until the convention.

This assures me that the chances at a brokered convention aren't as slim as one might think.

[TIMB0B]

*Editor's Note: These Projections Are Conservative; as the truth may have Ron Paul even higher....

[tsai3904]

Not possible. The chart in the link below was updated after the Louisiana primary.

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2012/03/race-to-1144-louisiana-primary.html

If you give ALL the uncommitted, unbound AND automatic delegates to Ron Paul, he will still have less than 380 delegates.

[digitaldean]

I don't see that number as being true. I would be happy on April 2nd if it was even over 300. But I think today the real number is somewhere between 250-275.

[jbauer]

So with that there is:

1168 allocated
1112 left to be allocated (many states havent voted yet)
637 Romney needs to win before Tampa or
57% Of remaining delegates needed to put Romney over the top.
43% What Romney has been averaging.
+14% Increase over current averages

With all the press saying Romney's won already do that help or hurt our cause?

[goRPaul]

Not possible. The chart in the link below was updated after the Louisiana primary.

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2012/03/race-to-1144-louisiana-primary.html

If you give ALL the uncommitted, unbound AND automatic delegates to Ron Paul, he will still have less than 380 delegates.

Thanks, this makes more sense. 380 is perhaps too optimistic. But maybe they're counting RP'ers that are bound for the first ballot?

[bbartlog]

It's possible that they're counting bound delegates who are believed to be Paul supporters (or something). Remember, there is no way to actually have an accurate picture with just one total number per candidate, since first round ballot vote and actual loyalty can be two different candidates. That said... 380 seems optimistic.

[Crystallas]

:shrug:

It doesn't matter. We are in a race, and counting chickens before the eggs have hatched is counter-productive.

[Liberty74]

Absolutely untrue delegate numbers. The media is off as well as this bogus chart above.

[NoOneButPaul]

It doesn't matter what the totals are, all that matters is that the convention is open and Romney doesn't get to 1144 on the 1st ballot.

Only on the 2nd ballot will we know the true numbers.

We need to focus first on actually getting to a 2nd ballot...

[Paul Or Nothing II]

It doesn't matter what the totals are, all that matters is that the convention is open and Romney doesn't get to 1144 on the 1st ballot.

Only on the 2nd ballot will we know the true numbers.

We need to focus first on actually getting to a 2nd ballot...

+1

We need Paul-supporters to keep signing up for delegation as much as possible & make sure that he has enough on the second ballot!

By the way, there was talk that bound ones can "refrain" from voting on the first ballot ensuring a second ballot, or even that the bound ones can directly vote for Paul irrespective of whom they're bound for :D

[kathy88]

So with that there is:

1168 allocated
1112 left to be allocated (many states havent voted yet)
637 Romney needs to win before Tampa or
57% Of remaining delegates needed to put Romney over the top.
43% What Romney has been averaging.
+14% Increase over current averages

With all the press saying Romney's won already do that help or hurt our cause?

Maybe with all the press people will just stay home that would normally vote for him. He's constantly saying he's got it. I think that will disway peeps from going out. He's not asking for votes like he was.

[MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2]

With all the press saying Romney's won already do that help or hurt our cause?


Yeah, I agree with Kathy. Such a narrative can keep Romney and Santorum people from even showing up, while the Paul organization knows better.

[maxoutco]

Just stating a fact that these numbers will become hard numbers when the state assemblies are held and we can determine who our unbound delegates are when we vote our slates in.

Now for the real issue, how do we handle the shenanigans of Romney lawyers showing up to the state assemblies and ruining our party as they did in the ND county assemblies.

This is what worries me the most, and I'm losing sleep over it.

[JackMan]

So with that there is:

1168 allocated
1112 left to be allocated (many states havent voted yet)
637 Romney needs to win before Tampa or
57% Of remaining delegates needed to put Romney over the top.
43% What Romney has been averaging.
+14% Increase over current averages

With all the press saying Romney's won already do that help or hurt our cause?


This is what is wrong with people on this site. You all think you are these great statisticians.

The previous states (with FAR more unbound and caucus states) mean NOTHING going forward. So to say that Romney should average the same percentage in the upcoming states and he did in the early ones is absurd. First of all...he picked up 90% tonight. And another 80% in three weeks. And at least 80% in California. And 80% of the superdelegates which apparently this absurd site is saying he has none?



+1

We need Paul-supporters to keep signing up for delegation as much as possible & make sure that he has enough on the second ballot!

By the way, there was talk that bound ones can "refrain" from voting on the first ballot ensuring a second ballot, or even that the bound ones can directly vote for Paul irrespective of whom they're bound for :D

That talk was just that. Talk. Sure...you can "refrain" from casting your vote for the candidate you are bound to. But your vote will get counted anyway.

This site is ridiculous. I actually think it is set up to troll Ron Paul supporters to see how naive they are. It is obvious that he doesn't have that much since it would be impossible. Not to mention the notion that Romney is going to have ZERO unbound delegates? Ridiculous.

and then the site actually goes on to say it might be MORE than that for Ron Paul?

I guess that is why you don't go by random unknown blogs.

[Liberty74]

Just stating a fact that these numbers will become hard numbers when the state assemblies are held and we can determine who our unbound delegates are when we vote our slates in.

Now for the real issue, how do we handle the shenanigans of Romney lawyers showing up to the state assemblies and ruining our party as they did in the ND county assemblies.

This is what worries me the most, and I'm losing sleep over it.

Don't lose sleep. The establishment and the Romney campaign will make sure he gets to 1144. They don't want all hell breaking lose at the convention. Too many people are hoping for a brokered convention. Chances of that happening is maybe 10% now.

[CTRattlesnake]

Absolutely 100% wrong.

Sorry, but that completely over optimistic.


Look at the link in my sig for the actual delegate count. No one has the slightest idea what will happen with the unbounds......so you cant just put up crap like this

[maxoutco]

I know it takes 1,144 delegates to win the nomination, but what's the grand total after all states are counted, and how are they split bound/unbound. I guess I want to know the bound to unbound ratio to better see our chances.

[rockerrockstar]

Wait and see at the convention is probably the best bet. Keep on fighting for delegates.

[PaulSoHard]

Numbers like this I guess can boost morale and allow people to keep fighting for a cause. But like others say, these projections are off. Gingrich has close to 80 with wins in South Carolina and Georgia and it's impossible that he's unable to gain any more delegates. From these numbers they're saying that Ron is going to win about 80% of the unbound delegates. With the way the establishment is trying to drive us into the ground, I don't think it will be possible. We saw that first-hand in North Dakota.

Romney < 1144 is all we need to do for now

[BUSHLIED]

It will be important to stop Romney in TX and CA for sure...he can't get the bulk of those.

[jbauer]

Well I apologize for my post pissing you off. I'm not a statistician but I do like numbers. FYI, I'm not involved in the fraud threads. In my brain I have to put numbers to the situation to make it make sense. I don't know if those numbers are acurate. I don't know what super delegates are going to whom. I don't what he'll pull today or in Cali or Texas etal.

What I do know, is the race isn't over. We have a slim chance but I'd rather have a chance then none. I hope that the others are right and Romney voters stay home. I tend to think that they'll still vote regardless. If the numbers were correct (and thats what this thread is about) a 15% increase in delegates for Romney is quite possible if anyone drops out of the race. However, if all 4 remain it would be hard for him to increase that much. So, to sum it up, I don't like our odds, but atleast we still have odds.

[QUOTE=JackMan;4332657]This is what is wrong with people on this site. You all think you are these great statisticians.

The previous states (with FAR more unbound and caucus states) mean NOTHING going forward. So to say that Romney should average the same percentage in the upcoming states and he did in the early ones is absurd. First of all...he picked up 90% tonight. And another 80% in three weeks. And at least 80% in California. And 80% of the superdelegates which apparently this absurd site is saying he has none?QUOTE]

[opinionatedfool]

Absolutely untrue delegate numbers. The media is off as well as this bogus chart above.

The process for putting this together is probably more accurate than the media's so why not spread these numbers around instead. The media's are even more off kilter. I think 380 may be possible after the first vote.

[gerryb]

Regardless, we need more delegates at national to choose the right chairman, and set the rules for 2016.

We also need everyone at the conventions in all the upcoming states.. to ensure we get the delegates, even if they are bound by past or future primaries.

[emazur]

So by what date will we have an accurate count of ALL delegates? And if it's not possible to find out b/c some are unbound, is there such a thing as unbound delegate polling?

[gerryb]

So by what date will we have an accurate count of ALL delegates? And if it's not possible to find out b/c some are unbound, is there such a thing as unbound delegate polling?

After each state's National delegate selection process has completed

[CTRattlesnake]

So by what date will we have an accurate count of ALL delegates? And if it's not possible to find out b/c some are unbound, is there such a thing as unbound delegate polling?

When all the contests are over and the state conventions are held.


That should be around July

[gerryb]

When all the contests are over and the state conventions are held.


Or District conventions.

[CTRattlesnake]

Or District conventions.

District conventions lead to state conventions

[digitaldean]

I want Paul going into FL and having:

Mitt get under 900-950 on the first vote
Newt plus Santorum should not reach over 800-850

So this way Paul gets a better chance at getting the nomination. Newt and Santorums people hate Mitt for the most part and very, very, few will go to Mitt. But Newt and Santorum share a lot of people but this way even if Santorum gets all of Newts people he still wont win.

Right now I think both Santorum and Newt wish they told people of VA to vote for Paul to help them out since 49 was almost as big as FL.