Ron Paul at 8% Nationally as Libertarian Candidate

[aknappjr]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_clinton_42_giulini_39_ron_paul_8


Interpretation:http://donklephant.com/2007/11/14/ron-paul-polling-at-8-nationally-as-3rd-party-nominee/

[remaxjon]

If that number got to 25% and he didn't win the nomination he would have to reconsider not running

[Swmorgan77]

Wow, already doubles Nader's numbers.

Interesting...

[klamath]

That is pretty high considering what his name recognition is now. If that keeps going up A third party run might not be out of the question.

[Qiu]

Not surprising. The people who support Ron Paul in the first place probably wouldn't vote for any other candidate.

[Pete Kay]

A lot of people woud not vote for him just because he would be a third party candidate. That's how brainwashed people are. Some Republicans would rather vote for Rudy than Ron Paul just because he has the big R next to his name.

[chipvogel]

I know when Dr. Paul says no it means no; so its not gonna happen...but I hope they keep doing polls like this.

At least in this poll Ron Paul's name is used.

opps...I said poll, fark you Frank

[Richie]

I know when Dr. Paul says no it means no; so its not gonna happen...but I hope they keep doing polls like this.

At least in this poll Ron Paul's name is used.

opps...I said poll, fark you Frank

I would normally agree, but he hasn't said no for sure. In every interview I've seen where he's asked the question, he said he's 99% sure or "has no plans." That being said, I wouldn't get my hopes up. I hope he endorses somebody so all of his supporters would be united in voting.

[kylejack]

If he doesn't get the nomination, I'm quite sure he'll make a run at it. Right now he needs to dedicate himself to the Republican primaries.

[mwkaufman]

If he doesn't get the nomination, I'm quite sure he'll make a run at it. Right now he needs to dedicate himself to the Republican primaries.

Agree on both counts. 8% is surprisingly high, consdering he only gets 5-6% in their Republican polls. I wonder where the support comes from? Obama? Edwards? Richardson? Romney? Huckabee? Thompson?

[Conza88]

Look if RP doesn't get the nomination because we couldn't get him over the line, he WILL run as a 3rd party. I bet my life on it.

Look, when you are running AGAINST the system, you have to play it. Wake up seriously. If he gave even an INKLING of voiced consideration, his credibility would be shot to death in an instant! They would have reason to leave him out of debates, etc. etc. like the retards that they are. They'd make a big ass dirty news item of it I have no doubt.

I believe he started off saying it genuinely, but - you THINK he's going turn back now? f--- off. The man's going to with the GOP nomination anyway, so all this talk is futile. :)

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig8/lopez1.html - I suggest you read if you disagree with me. He's been playing coy, because he has too.

[m4ff3w]

Look if RP doesn't get the nomination because we couldn't get him over the line, he WILL run as a 3rd party. I bet my life on it.


What about states with "Sore Loser" laws?

[conner_condor]

Lets not think 3rd party now. Lets go for the gold.

[Ron Paul Fan]

I don't know if he'll run 3rd party. We'll cross that bridge if we come to it, and that's a big if. He's said he has no intention to, but right now he needs to focus on winning the Republican Party nomination. And that's a big but.

[bmcosti]

Think about it Ron Paul couldn't under any circumstances say while in the Republican Primaries that he would be seriously considering a third party run.

But ask yourself this question, why is Ron Paul the only candidate for President that is refusing donations for the general election?

I know this because I tried to donate an additional $1,000 after I maxed out for the Primary. The campaign sent me a check back refusing my donation.

Everybody else has raised money for the general election. Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Giuliani, Romney, McCain, etc.

My guess is that he doesn't want to collect this money now, and then have to give it back when/if he changes parties.

But the way the campaign is shaping up, I really think all of this speculation is worthless because he will win the Republican Primary. The huge suprise of the election will be Iowa, because 53% of Republicans in Iowa want the U.S. out of Iraq within 6 months.

[Jordan]

8% is spectacular. I wish they would've polled RP vs Hillary. That wouldve been fun.

[max]

I know when Dr. Paul says no it means no; so its not gonna happen...but I hope they keep doing polls like this.

At least in this poll Ron Paul's name is used.

opps...I said poll, fark you Frank

He has to say "no" at this point..

But if you read between the lines, what he says is that as a 3rd party "you cant get on ballots"

Soooo...in case we win these GOP sheep in the primaries...we get him on the ballots of al 50 states

[Johncjackson]

Divide it by at least 2 or maybe 4. nader's real support is probably 1-2% and Paul doubles that.

the problem is, people in polls ALWAYS say they will vote for or even WANT a "third party" option and are willing to vote in a magnitude much greater than actually happens on election day. On election day most of the same people will refuse to vote other than R or D.

I have been following LP races long enough to know that LP candidates always fare much worse than polls might suggest.

If you think the 5% poll threshhold in Iowa debate is bad, wait until the general election, where a LP, CP, GP, or Ind candidate will have to poll 15%+ to even be invited. Moving 3rd party effectively ends what little media there is, takes ALL main debates completely off the table,etc.

[Conza88]

What about states with "Sore Loser" laws?

Dunno about those laws... haven't bothered with them personally because they won't be applied to Ron Paul.. Someone should inform Hucka-boo though, and the rest of the rookies.

[Churchill2004]

That poll had Hillary as the Democratic nominee and Rudy as the Republican. Both of those candidates would have a lot of people dissatisfied within their own party (anti-war Democrats and social conservatives within the GOP), probably more than any other two candidates. Hillary vs. Rudy is an absolute best-case scenario for a third party run.

[Flash]

He may go third party. But what are the chances of him actually winning as a third party candidate?

[Johncjackson]

He has to say "no" at this point..

But if you read between the lines, what he says is that as a 3rd party "you cant get on ballots"

Soooo...in case we win these GOP sheep in the primaries...we get him on the ballots of al 50 states

The LP usually gets on 49 or 50, wth the Greens and Constitution not far behind. Ballot access IS a big deal, but Ron Paul has more cash than the entire budget for those parties. If they manage it, he can manage it ( or get on theirs). If RP agreed to run for one of those parties, he probably wouldnt even need to spend a dime. They would make sure to get him on.

Ballot Access isn't the biggest issue. Much bigger are "wasted vote syndrome", not being allowed in debates, being marginalized and lumped in with the fringe elements of 3rd parties, and so on.

[Kap]

How much work would be involved in getting him on the ballots if he ran 3rd party?

[Richandler]

That is a huge number for a national poll. Makes you wonder what's really going on with these polls. Like I've said If we are capable of raising 20 million dollars, then a third party 100 million dollar 3rd party campaign should never be out of the question.

[aknappjr]

I absolutely agree lets not focus on this. I just thought it was interesting. Focus on winning the early primary states (1% extra in these states equals a lot of extra media coverage) and FUNDRAISING.

[Johncjackson]

He may go third party. But what are the chances of him actually winning as a third party candidate?

Zero.

[jgmaynard]

I was just thinking... Think about what this poll means given the fact that most people won't vote outside of the two major parties...

Given a choice of those four, even running in a third party, he is STILL prefered by 8% of the people. So if 8% of people support him AFTER the "straight ticket" voters are taken out, wouldn't you think that the percentage supporting him for the R race would be higher?

I realize it can't be proven through those numbers, but do you folks see what I am getting at?

JM

[Johncjackson]

How much work would be involved in getting him on the ballots if he ran 3rd party?

Established 3rd Party, not much at all. Like I said above, they'd get him on. If he is strictly Independent a little harder. They use paid petitioners and volunteers. And he would have no problem with either. There are a couple states that have very restrictive ballet Access laws that are almost impossible, though. For example, the LP had little problem getting on all 50 in the past but in 2004 was on 47 or 48, I think.

[Johncjackson]

I was just thinking... Think about what this poll means given the fact that most people won't vote outside of the two major parties...

Given a choice of those four, even running in a third party, he is STILL prefered by 8% of the people. So if 8% of people support him AFTER the "straight ticket" voters are taken out, wouldn't you think that the percentage supporting him for the R race would be higher?

I realize it can't be proven through those numbers, but do you folks see what I am getting at?

JM

Well, "they" are saying he has more support among independents and Dems outside of the "likely Republican voters." But even the 8% is unbelievably high based on actual 3rd party politics. I think its not worth worrying about becaue the ONLY chance is getting on as a Republican. And thats what we ned t do.

[TechnoGuyRob]

What about states with "Sore Loser" laws?

Not allowed for presidential elections.