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View Full Version : Santorum details new delegate math (e.g. Santorum endorses and steals Ron's delegate plan)




sailingaway
03-28-2012, 09:59 PM
Don't forget the 'endorses' part if we do well.....he seems to think this is fine, here.

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/article/santorum-details-new-delegate-math/452346

JusticeOWHjr
03-28-2012, 10:01 PM
If Paul has 100% of the unbound delegates (not including superdelegates and pledged territory delegates) to the RNC (Iowa, Maine, Washington, Minnesota, Colorado, and Missouri) with 0% of the unbound ones for the rest....the delegate count would look like this if we have the pledged superdelegates+bound delegates+unbound delegates, sans pledged territory delegates that are unbound (all to Paul):

508-Romney (46%)
257-Paul (23%)
207-Santorum (19%)
137-Gingrich (12%)

PolicyReader
03-28-2012, 10:15 PM
Well Yob's numbers are certainly more thorough than the AP I'll give him that, and he also gets points for being clear on what a projection is unlike the AP / pretty much all of the MSM. I hope that now Yob has clarified to Santorum that 'every state is different' perhaps Santorum will get his people to stop teaming with Romney and start playing smart. :cool: (hey, I can hope ;) )

Here's a good early count (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?364940-RPF-s-Official-Delegate-Count-Thread)
A possible projection (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?364870-Possible-Delegate-Counts-So-Far)
A set of early Paul nomination scenarios (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?330516-How-Ron-Paul-Wins-the-Nomination-%28full-nomination-schedule-delegate-s-and-analysis%29)
And an interesting rules question (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?368894-RNC-Rlue-15%28b%29)

sailingaway
03-28-2012, 10:15 PM
and then it comes to second ballot and Gingrich people having to decide etc. But I of course do not think Ron has all the unpledged delegates. I didn't realize that many bound delegates had been awarded yet, though. Where did Santorum get 207 BOUND delegates?

PolicyReader
03-28-2012, 10:55 PM
and then it comes to second ballot and Gingrich people having to decide etc. But I of course do not think Ron has all the unpledged delegates. I didn't realize that many bound delegates had been awarded yet, though. Where did Santorum get 207 BOUND delegates?
I'm not sure that Santorum has that many, according to CTRattlesnake he has 196 delegates total including known super delegates.
Of course that excludes some of the possible re-allocation based on enforcement of the proportional rule which would bump him upwards but that would bring Romney down (and he's already only at 505 not 508, again including known super delegates... so I'm not sure what JusticeOWHjr numbers are based off of )

Additional FHQ on this subject: http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2012/03/santorum-super-pac-doubles-down-on.html
(with thanks to tsai3904 )

Here's the FHQ count (pretty much in line with CTs count) : http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2012/03/race-to-1144-louisiana-primary.html

JusticeOWHjr
03-28-2012, 11:20 PM
I'm basing them off Wiki's delegate count of BOUND delegates that were allotted + pledged unbound superdelegates + territorial delegates that are unbound

Though, I did a quick run through the numbers, so they are rough.

Santorum BOUND:

3-Nevada + 14-Michigan + 7-Alaska + 3-Georgia + 11-North Dakota + 21-Ohio + 14-Oklahoma + 29-Tennessee + 4-Vermont + 3-Wyoming + 33-Kansas + 22-Alabama + 5-Hawaii + 13-Mississippi + 12-Illinois + 10-Louisiana (Primary) + Betty Fine Collins (Alabama) + Kim Lehman (Iowa)=206