Reason-Rupe General Election Poll (3/26): Obama 41%, Romney 30%, Paul 17%

[Havax]

In a hypothetical 3-way matchup:
Obama 41%
Romney 30%
Paul 17%

GOP National poll:
Romney 39%
Santorum 26%
Paul 12%
Gingrich 10%

Ron could make it on the debate stage, as you only need 5 polls showing you at 15% or higher.

http://reason.com/assets/db/13327241811317.pdf


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQXJup6x6b0&feature=g-all-u&context=G212deb2FAAAAAAAAAAA

[trey4sports]

honestly, im afraid as the moment would get closer he would begin to drop in the polls. that almost always happens.

[Indy Vidual]

...
Ron could make it on the debate stage, as you only need 5 polls showing you at 15% or higher....

Does this count as a 'qualified' poll?
If Ron could make it on the debate stage, then he should run, BUT...
It's too late to get on some ballots (?), so he would have to run LP.

[Havax]

honestly, im afraid as the moment would get closer he would begin to drop in the polls. that almost always happens.

If democrats are smart they'd do everything possible to get Ron polling well enough to get in the debates, including answering phone surveys acting like they Ron Paul supporters. It's true, if he ran 3rd party, Romney would stand 0% of winning.

[RonPaulFever]

If you think the media ignores him now, just wait until a 3rd party run.

[Agorism]

You would think Americans Elect would really want Paul but they want Roemer or Huntsman.

[Havax]

If you think the media ignores him now, just wait until a 3rd party run.

The liberal media would do everything in their power to keep him relevant so as to steal votes from Romney.

[pauliticalfan]

If he can get on the debate stage, everything changes. 3 primetime presidential debates + VP debate watched by the entire country = Ron Paul Presidency. You wanna talk about a surge in the polls? It would happen in that scenario.

[sailingaway]

So, we now have an 18%, a 21% and a 17%.

But given how manipulatable polls are, how likely would those same polls be to come out that way in SEPTEMBER? and someone said you need an AVERAGE of 15% in FIVE polls taken IN SEPTEMBER. Since there would obviously be hit polls to drag it down, how many higher would there be to get him into the debates, in any event?

[sailingaway]

The liberal media would do everything in their power to keep him relevant so as to steal votes from Romney.

not to the point of putting him onto a debate stage with Obama, so he could take the anti war and civil liberties progressives. MSNBC and Kos know WELL he is the biggest danger to O in that context.

[sailingaway]

You would think Americans Elect would really want Paul but they want Roemer or Huntsman.

they want it to elect 'their sort' it isn't really open to public desires. Their rules are very biased towards the corporatist mushy middle. I don't think in the end they want Roemer, either, he isn't corporatist enough. Huntsman would be perfect for them, however.

[Crotale]

It'd be interesting to see a poll showing a Obama (D), Romney (R) and Paul (L) match up.

[Paul or not at all]

You would think Americans Elect would really want Paul but they want Roemer or Huntsman.


Actually Paul has the most supporters on that site.

[flynn]

Not enough momentum in this stage to run third party.

[69360]

Does this count as a 'qualified' poll?

Sure it was done by an independent marketing firm.


not to the point of putting him onto a debate stage with Obama, so he could take the anti war and civil liberties progressives. MSNBC and Kos know WELL he is the biggest danger to O in that context.

Ron would be devastating to Obama in a debate. Obama would be exposed in a way he never has on a national stage in regards to re-upping the patriot act, keeping gitmo open and waging undeclared war. Ron would be a very large detriment to Obama's reelection prospects if they had a debate.

[qh4dotcom]

Ron Paul won't be able to get on some state ballots due to sore loser laws and filing deadlines if he waits until the Republican convention is over to start running 3rd party.

[sailingaway]

Actually Paul has the most supporters on that site.

absolutely. I meant the ADMINISTRATORS want mushy middle. PEOPLE don't.

[digitaldean]

Can he just run as a Libertarian? Gary Johnson would just have to step down and take a VP spot since they are in all 50 states.

[JamesButabi]

Honestly the biggest obstacle I have come across is getting people to vote in primaries. There are so many more people that would vote RP in a general election that wont bother to leave their house/work for a Republican primary.

[jkob]

I wonder what he polls vs Obama & Santorum

[Liberty74]

Run Indy. Screw the system.

We can do this. People want an alternative.

[harikaried]

Some interesting poll questions and results in there... If only people knew more about Ron Paul!

21 Would you like to have similar ability to shop around for a less expensive or better health insurance policy?
- Yes 69%
- No 21%
- Vol. Already Do 6%
- Don't Know/Refused 5%

51 For every dollar you pay in federal taxes, about how much of it do you think the government wastes?
- Average $0.56
- Median $0.50

54 Which of the following statements better describes your own views?
- The less government the better 49%
- There are more things that government should be doing 45%
- Don't Know/Refused 6%

55 Which of the following statements better describes your own views?
- Government should be dong more to regulate businesses 34%
- Too Often, government regulation of businesses does more harm than good 57%
- Don't Know/Refused 9%

56 Which of the following statements better describes your own views?
- Strong government to handle today's complex economic problems 45%
- Better able to handle problems within a free market with less gov't involvement 49%
- Don't Know/Refused 6%

57 Some people think the government should promote traditional values in our society.
- 
Government should promote traditional values 44%
- Government should not promote any particular set of values 49%
- Don't Know/Refused 7%

58 Some say the government should do more to protect morality in society.
- Government should do more to protect morality 30%
- Government is getting too involved in the issue of morality 61%
- Don't Know/Refused 9%

[Karsten]

This poll is actually the LOWEST Ron Paul has ever polled in a 3-way general race.

[gerryb]

Bogus poll is bogus.

How do you poll higher in a general election than you do in a primary?

[rideurlightning]

Ron Paul won't be able to get on some state ballots due to sore loser laws and filing deadlines if he waits until the Republican convention is over to start running 3rd party.

I'm pretty sure those laws don't apply in presidential politics.

[ZanZibar]

Not that this will ever happen, but this poll is fascinating:







http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQXJup6x6b0&feature=email

[JusticeOWHjr]

Bogus poll is bogus.

How do you poll higher in a general election than you do in a primary?

LOL. Think about it for a second. Ron Paul does best with Independents. Much more independents in the electorate than in a Republican primary.

Not a bogus poll. You can't even back up your statement. pathetic.

[roc_rob]

Great news!

[gerryb]

LOL. Think about it for a second. Ron Paul does best with Independents. Much more independents in the electorate than in a Republican primary.

Not a bogus poll. You can't even back up your statement. pathetic.

Independents can vote in almost half the primaries and caucuses we've had so far... Democrats could vote in a large number of them, as well.

[sailingaway]

do you even glance at the threads already here?

[NIU Students for Liberty]

Independents can vote in almost half the primaries and caucuses we've had so far... Democrats could vote in a large number of them, as well.

True but you're obviously going to see higher participation when it comes down to a general election because people feel they have more power when there are only 3 candidates (1 who truly stands out from the rest of the pack) to choose from. Not to mention the fact that you won't hear independents bitching about having to vote for a candidate with an (R) or (D) in front of their name.

[cnaw]

Can he just run as a Libertarian? Gary Johnson would just have to step down and take a VP spot since they are in all 50 states.

Well first of all, Dr. Paul is not going to run 3rd party. But if he did, he'd have to drop out of the GOP race in time for the LP Convention (http://www.lp.org/event/2012-libertarian-party-convention-at-red-rock-resort-in-las-vegas) (May 2-6). Also, LP Presidential candidates don't choose their running mates. The VP is voted on separately at the convention.

[roc_rob]

True but you're obviously going to see higher participation when it comes down to a general election because people feel they have more power when there is only 3 candidates (1 who truly stands out from the rest of the pack) to choose from. I'm all in favor of a 3rd party/Indie run at this point.

Agreed. GOP association is also a potential barrier to some of our support.

[Liberty74]

So, we now have an 18%, a 21% and a 17%.

But given how manipulatable polls are, how likely would those same polls be to come out that way in SEPTEMBER? and someone said you need an AVERAGE of 15% in FIVE polls taken IN SEPTEMBER. Since there would obviously be hit polls to drag it down, how many higher would there be to get him into the debates, in any event?

Why does Ron have to been in the debates?

The debates are a complete SHAM. Practically everyone knows that. Please tell me how you will fix the world in 1 minute Paul. Please!!!

Debates are all about repeating your rehearsed BS talking point and who says it better. That's all. It's not about the issues nor a discussion of the issues.

Ron Paul could change the game.

[RabbitMan]

Nah, 3rd party would be detrimental to the movement. We are making huge strides within the GOP and I guess the rate of change just isn't fast enough for some people that really would rather lose now like OWS to make a message and be done with it. We are setting ourselves up to take over, or at least be incredibly influential, in a major political party as soon as a crash occurs and we are vilified.

[gerryb]

True but you're obviously going to see higher participation when it comes down to a general election because people feel they have more power when there are only 3 candidates (1 who truly stands out from the rest of the pack) to choose from. Not to mention the fact that you won't hear independents bitching about having to vote for a candidate with an (R) or (D) in front of their name.

Who in the world thinks they have more power when over half the nation is voting vs. 0.01% to 5% as in a primary/caucus?

[harikaried]

Who in the world thinks they have more power when half the nation is voting vs. 5% or less as in a primary/caucus?The people who believe the real vote happens in November. I had to convince many people in Iowa that they needed to vote for Ron Paul in the Iowa caucus and not wait until the general election.

Most people don't vote, and for those who do, many only want to be bothered to vote once in a long time.

[alucard13mmfmj]

Lack of debates is disturbing...

[roc_rob]

Who in the world thinks they have more power when half the nation is voting vs. 5% or less as in a primary/caucus?

Anyone who reasonably believes that we can tap into greater levels of support beyond the GOP.

You yourself point out in another thread that "the LP has more than 25k people registered in IA -- exit polls showed none of them showed up" for the GOP caucus. [link (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?369210-quot-We-will-present-an-ultimatum-to-the-GOP-quot-3rd-Party-Run-Petition-rp2012.org&p=4317474&viewfull=1#post4317474)]

Do you not think that suggests that Paul's current GOP association might be a bit of an issue?

[Liberty74]

Nah, 3rd party would be detrimental to the movement. We are making huge strides within the GOP and I guess the rate of change just isn't fast enough for some people that really would rather lose now like OWS to make a message and be done with it. We are setting ourselves up to take over, or at least be incredibly influential, in a major political party as soon as a crash occurs and we are vilified.

I say we gain strength by taking over the Independent Party. We are not winning anything within the GOP. They aren't going to allow it. The establishment is much more powerful than people think. A take over? Really? Where did the Tea Party get? It was taken over by the establishment and has no real influence now.

We mesh with the Republicans, you must become a Santorum "part of the team." Is that what we are fighting for? To become part of the two party criminal system?

A real simple question to make my point - How many Ron Paul's are there in the Congress?

[Gravik]

Would love to see a debate between Paul, Obama, and Romney. Paul would make them both look like idiots.

[roc_rob]

Would love to see a debate between Paul, Obama, and Romney. Paul would make them both look like idiots.

As Paul would be pulling votes from both candidates, it would also make liberty ideals a more central topic of concern. I cannot think of a better way to spread the message.

[gerryb]

Anyone who reasonably believes that we can tap into greater levels of support beyond the GOP.

Anyone was allowed to show up and participate...

IF those LP people actually had principles, they would have voted for the most libertarian candidate to enter the national political landscape since Thomas Jefferson, and given Ron Paul a win with over 35% of the vote in IA...

[roc_rob]

Anyone was allowed to show up and participate...

And to me, that is exactly the point. 25k liberty-minded individuals in your example still considered GOP association to be a barrier to supporting Paul.


IF those LP people actually had principles, they would have voted for the most libertarian candidate to enter the national political landscape since Thomas Jefferson, and given Ron Paul a win with over 35% of the vote in IA...

I am more inclined to believe that it is the exact opposite of a lack of principles that kept them from voting. They may also not have voted because they want Paul to become the LP nominee, accurately predicted the establishment's active refusal of Paul, or simply did not want to inflate voter turn-out numbers for the GOP.

[gerryb]

And to me, that is exactly the point. 25k liberty-minded individuals in your example still considered GOP association to be a barrier to supporting Paul.

So what's the next excuse to not vote for Ron Paul, tax funds are utilized to conduct the election?

[roc_rob]

So what's the next excuse to not vote for Ron Paul, tax funds are utilized to conduct the election?

Rather than pointing fingers at potential supporters for things that have already happened, I am more interested in harnessing their strength. I believe a Ron Paul 3rd Party run is capable of exactly that.

[gerryb]

Rather than pointing fingers at potential supporters for things that have already happened, I am more interested in harnessing their strength. I believe a Ron Paul 3rd Party run is capable of exactly that.

So am I, and Ron Paul has committed the last 6 years of his life to harness that strength and gain a influence in, or majority control in many areas, of a vehicle capable of advancing his principles in a meaningful way.

[JusticeOWHjr]

So am I, and Ron Paul has committed the last 6 years of his life to harness that strength and gain a influence in, or majority control in many areas, of a vehicle capable of advancing his principles in a meaningful way.

Basically you have zero evidence or basis for calling the poll bogus. GO figures.

[69360]

Bogus poll is bogus.

How do you poll higher in a general election than you do in a primary?

Just look at the percentages of the population that vote in the general election vs the primary. Then look at the number of registered independents. You'll have your answer. The math works.


Lack of debates is disturbing...

The GOP primary has never gone this long in the age of mass media. They weren't prepared for this slog. Probably didn't schedule any more figuring it would be over by now.

[JusticeOWHjr]

This poll is a plant by the MSM to undermine Paul's campaign!

[sailingaway]

Independents can vote in almost half the primaries and caucuses we've had so far... Democrats could vote in a large number of them, as well.

there have been three of these now. The other two gave Ron 18% and 21%. NO independents are blocked in this poll, nor Dem. In the primary only GOP are polled on the national polls. UNLIKE THE OTHER GOP Ron has very strong support outside the party as well.

That is not to say Ron should leave the party, he put a lot of work into the GOP. But the poll is in line with the others polling him third party. I'm sure if he were actually running that way both parties would join to keep his polling numbers JUST UNDER what is necessary to be in the debates, of course.

[XTreat]

44% of people would be ok with a war that last as long and cost as much as the war with Iraq....

[Boss2]

What if RP ran as a "republican-democrat" and put a dem as his vp ?

The biggest challenge of the general election is that people vote for the two parties. This solves that problem fully and would be great for marketing

[roc_rob]

44% of people would be ok with a war that last as long and cost as much as the war with Iraq....

We need to claim 'spoiler' as a virtue.

Ron Paul, spoiling _______________ since 1976:

undeclared wars
tax hikes
national debt
the erosion of civil liberties
corporate welfare
inflation tax
modern day Jim Crow laws
...


I am sure we can think of many more.

[RabbitMan]

Wasnt there a percentage of the vote that a party had to get in a Presidential Election to be considered a National Major party and put on all the ballots automatically? Didn't Nader try to do that in 2000? What'd he get? This is the only real positive thing that could come out of an indie run from Paul IMO. He certaintly won't win. Playing spoiler would only be beneficial in this light.

EDIT: A Third Party needs 5% of the popular vote to both receive federal funding in the next election cycle AND be on all 50 state ballots it seems. Interesting...that would be attainable. Though Nader only got 2.5% in 2000 and he was pretty popular across the country too.

My big problem with all of this indie talk is that Ron Paul philosophically lines up with non-neocon Republicans than Libertarians, the obvious outlet.

[Feeding the Abscess]

Wasnt there a percentage of the vote that a party had to get in a Presidential Election to be considered a National Major party and put on all the ballots automatically? Didn't Nader try to do that in 2000? What'd he get? This is the only real positive thing that could come out of an indie run from Paul IMO. He certaintly won't win. Playing spoiler would only be beneficial in this light.

EDIT: A Third Party needs 5% of the popular vote to both receive federal funding in the next election cycle AND be on all 50 state ballots it seems. Interesting...that would be attainable. Though Nader only got 2.5% in 2000 and he was pretty popular across the country too.

My big problem with all of this indie talk is that Ron Paul philosophically lines up with non-neocon Republicans than Libertarians, the obvious outlet.

Not sure what you're saying there. He talks all the time about rejecting the use of force and mandates, which is libertarian philosophy.

[cindy25]

If democrats are smart they'd do everything possible to get Ron polling well enough to get in the debates, including answering phone surveys acting like they Ron Paul supporters. It's true, if he ran 3rd party, Romney would stand 0% of winning.

and this has to be the threat to the GOP elite; win with Paul or lose with Romney or Santorum

[roc_rob]

and this has to be the threat to the GOP elite; win with Paul or lose with Romney or Santorum

I agree.

[RabbitMan]

Not sure what you're saying there. He talks all the time about rejecting the use of force and mandates, which is libertarian philosophy.

I've always been under the impression that the Libertarian Party was a more active promoter of maximizing freedom and liberty, whereas when you get to the nuts and bolts of it, Dr. Paul is an Old Right Republican whose main focus is the Rule of Law and fiscal/monetary sanity.

For example, Libertarians would say that you don't have the right to force your values on other people, and Dr. Paul would say that while this would be his preference, the Constitution(the law) says that Government at the State level can do all kinds of silly things. A Libertarian would be a bit more loose in his handling of foreign policy in order to maximize his people's freedoms; Paul would simply follow the rules by the books under the belief that they are the best list of directions we've got. That kind of thing.

[PolicyReader]

44% of people would be ok with a war that last as long and cost as much as the war with Iraq....
I wish I could persuade them to volunteer to go first, what with being so keen on it and all..

[Crotale]

I've always been under the impression that the Libertarian Party was a more active promoter of maximizing freedom and liberty, whereas when you get to the nuts and bolts of it, Dr. Paul is an Old Right Republican whose main focus is the Rule of Law and fiscal/monetary sanity.

For example, Libertarians would say that you don't have the right to force your values on other people, and Dr. Paul would say that while this would be his preference, the Constitution(the law) says that Government at the State level can do all kinds of silly things. A Libertarian would be a bit more loose in his handling of foreign policy in order to maximize his people's freedoms; Paul would simply follow the rules by the books under the belief that they are the best list of directions we've got. That kind of thing.

I think Ron Paul is more of a voluntarist than you credit him for.

[eleganz]

I think Ron Paul is more of a voluntarist than you credit him for.

^^^ by god I think you are onto something! :)

[cindy25]

without a Paul 3rd party Romney-Rubio could win, and it would never end; neo-cons would control the GOP forever. even if Romney Rubio lost it would make Rubio the 2016 front runner.

[roc_rob]

without a Paul 3rd party Romney-Rubio could win, and it would never end; neo-cons would control the GOP forever. even if Romney Rubio lost it would make Rubio the 2016 front runner.

I hope we would also be able to shift mainstream discussion more toward liberty movement ideals, on both the right and left.

If both opposing candidates are predicted to lose votes to Ron Paul, in what may be a close race, then I think the influence of our liberty ideals have a real chance of shaping discussion.