Ron Paul polls 2d best against Obama under Rasmussen poll, Santorum, Gingrich lose badly

[sailingaway]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

likely voters

Romney 46%
Obama 43%

Obama 44%
Ron Paul 39%

Obama 49%
Santorum 41%

Obama 50%
Gingrich 38%


+/- 3%

my understanding of how to read that is the 3% is on BOTH sides so that makes Ron statistically tied within the margin of error, Romney also, and the others lose to Obama.

[phil4truth]

That's how I'm reading it too.

[DanK22]

About the margin of error, it's meaningless without the confidence interval. If the poll's confidence interval was say 95%, then what the results are really saying is that if you conducted the same survey with different samples then 5% of your results will fall out of this range

41% < Obama < 47%
36% < Paul < 42%

It's been a while since I've taken statistics and I'm a liberal arts major, so don't take my word for it. :)

[revned]

Why do they keep putting out more and more polls? To me it seems like they are just doing this to shove it peoples faces, if they don't vote for Romney, Obama will win.

[Butchie]

Why do they keep putting out more and more polls? To me it seems like they are just doing this to shove it peoples faces, if they don't vote for Romney, Obama will win.

Obama's going to win that's all there is to it. The GOP, much like the Dems on '04 have just completely dropped the ball. Both Bush in '04 and Obama now are two Presidents that the nation is/was begging to get rid of, yet in both cases the opposing party is throwing up some uninspiring candidate. I didn't vote for Bush the first and time and I wanted so bad to get him out, but I couldn't bring myself to vote for Kerry either, so I voted for Nader. How sad that Obama is so horrible yet what the GOP is going to throw up won't be able to topple him.

[BUSHLIED]

About the margin of error, it's meaningless without the confidence interval. If the poll's confidence interval was say 95%, then what the results are really saying is that if you conducted the same survey with different samples then 5% of your results will fall out of this range

41% < Obama < 47%
36% < Paul < 42%

It's been a while since I've taken statistics and I'm a liberal arts major, so don't take my word for it. :)

I believe that in this case, the confidence interval IS the margin of Error...you don't have a mean. You simply have a percentage of people that pick either A or B...

[BUSHLIED]

About the margin of error, it's meaningless without the confidence interval. If the poll's confidence interval was say 95%, then what the results are really saying is that if you conducted the same survey with different samples then 5% of your results will fall out of this range

41% < Obama < 47%
36% < Paul < 42%

It's been a while since I've taken statistics and I'm a liberal arts major, so don't take my word for it. :)

I believe that in this case, the confidence interval IS the margin of Error...you don't have a mean. You simply have a percentage of people that pick either A or B...


Obama 44%: So it would be 41 to 47% for Obama

Ron Paul 39%: 36 to 42 for Paul.

Which means at best he beat Obama by 1% assuming the most favorable results.

[roc_rob]

Great news :D

I hope this data will influence Paul to consider not quitting the race, in the event we are not successful at the GOP convention.

Paul running spreads the message.

[BrittanySligar]

ehm.. am I reading this wrong, or is romney polling 8 points better than us?

[roc_rob]

ehm.. am I reading this wrong, or is romney polling 8 points better than us?

Romney is definitely favored by this poll. You are correct there.

Paul, however, compares favorably with Santorum and Gingrich. Consider that voting results so far arguably position Paul as last in popular support within the GOP.

This poll shows the massive potential of our as-of-yet untapped support. That untapped support could make or break the general election.

Paul's strength in polls like this will be beneficial for either:

Influencing the GOP convention
Laying the foundation for a 3rd party run


If we do not outright win the nomination, then we need one of those outcomes.

[sailingaway]

ehm.. am I reading this wrong, or is romney polling 8 points better than us?

Only a one point wider spread because more vote for Obama under that scenario, as well.