Good chances in Wisconsin?

[Alazar]

Hi guys. I've been mostly just lurking in the forums up until now, but I noticed this article on Google and it got me thinking about Paul's chances in Wisconsin. It doesn't look like anyone's brought this up yet, and I thought it may be worth pointing out.

www.washingtonpost.com/politics/presidential-primary-doesnt-register-with-wisconsin-republicans-focused-on-walker-recall/2012/03/23/gIQAxa8RWS_story.html


MADISON, Wis. — The effort to recall Republican Gov. Scott Walker has been so all-consuming in Wisconsin that the upcoming presidential primary election here is attracting little interest among voters or political activists.

Even the head of Mitt Romney’s campaign in Wisconsin says that he knows voters are too distracted to pay much attention to the April 3 vote.

“People are not focused on the presidential,” said Ted Kanavas, a former state senator and Romney’s campaign co-chair. ...

... Even Republican voters who are usually interested in politics say they don’t care about the primary, in which Romney, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Rep. Ron Paul will compete for the state’s 42 delegates. ...

... State Rep. Robin Vos said Republican National Chairman Reince Priebus asked him a couple weeks ago about the chatter in the state about the upcoming presidential primary.

“And I said, ‘Reince, I hate to burst your bubble, but nobody in Wisconsin is talking about the presidential primary,’” Vos said.


I know you should take everything in the MSM with a grain shaker of salt, but if there's truth to this, it seems intriguing: If not many average Joe's are going to bother with the primary, the victory will probably go to the candidate with the most "do-or-die" supporters in the voting population. And I'm pretty certain Ron Paul is the only candidate with 99% of his supporters actually dedicated to seeing him win.

I can't imagine many RP supporters would skip out on voting for him because they're too wrapped up in other things at the time. Of course, RP's numbers don't look too great in Wisconsin straw polls, but that's beside the point. If there really is a lot of apathy concerning the primary, and RP's supporters learn of this and realize how much of an advantage they'll have, I would not be surprised if they managed to gain enough support and get enough people voting to make RP win the primary.

And since this is not a Republican-only primary, we can get help from any Democrat supporters of RP - which I doubt would be much negated by Democrats voting for other candidates in the primary, as, logically, they would be even less interested in it. I think this could turn out REALLY well for Ron, as long as we encourage everyone in Wisconsin to realize how big of a difference their vote could make with this.

So yeah, just wanted to get that out there. I don't know how much truth there is to the article, but it still makes me think we could actually have a good chance of winning Wisconsin if we get EVERYBODY voting, as well as trying to win over new people for Ron Paul before the primary.

[HaryTemp]

No...if anything this means that MORE people are going to vote. They may not be focused on the primary as much as the recall election. But it isn't like they are going to go into the voting booth and vote on the recall election and then skip over the Republican primary. Meanwhile, this recall election will bring more people to the voting booth in general.

[rpwi]

Yeah...doesn't seem to be a lot of buzz about the race here in Wisconsin. Hopefully this is a good thing like it almost was in Virginia.

We don't need to win the popular vote to get delegates...each congressional districts gets three delegates. Paul might win districts for Madison, SW Wisconsin NW Wisconsin, and Milwaukee proper...the rest of the state will be tough sledding.

It's too bad the dem primary for the gubernatorial recall (big deal) is on May 8th and not the same day as the presidential republican primary. That would have made things interesting...

[WIwarrior]

Ron will get 3rd. Too many neocons up here. I have converted about 10 people for Paul but most of the people just won't listen to the message of liberty. It is disheartening to see but people in WI are overly trusting with media (FOX CNN Hannity O'Reilly). Good people here in WI but just uninformed and brain washed from the media.

[HaryTemp]

Yeah...doesn't seem to be a lot of buzz about the race here in Wisconsin. Hopefully this is a good thing like it almost was in Virginia.

We don't need to win the popular vote to get delegates...each congressional districts gets three delegates. Paul might win districts for Madison, SW Wisconsin NW Wisconsin, and Milwaukee proper...the rest of the state will be tough sledding.



I don't know abut the others, but Romney has been dominating the major cities, so I don't see Milwaukee going to anyone but him. (Or is it a weird naming thing and is Milwaukee proper not the metro area?)

That is really the best strategy for Ron Paul...don't just focus on states he thinks he can pick up delegates. But focus even more tightly on just a few districts here and there. Stay away from the major cities and focus on the rural areas.

At this pooint, it is clear that he is not going to win a state. He needs to focus on what he CAN win. He needs more EARNED delegates to have any chance for stealth to work

[parocks]

I don't know abut the others, but Romney has been dominating the major cities, so I don't see Milwaukee going to anyone but him. (Or is it a weird naming thing and is Milwaukee proper not the metro area?)

That is really the best strategy for Ron Paul...don't just focus on states he thinks he can pick up delegates. But focus even more tightly on just a few districts here and there. Stay away from the major cities and focus on the rural areas.

At this pooint, it is clear that he is not going to win a state. He needs to focus on what he CAN win. He needs more EARNED delegates to have any chance for stealth to work

Well, I wouldn't say rural over urban. State by state it's different. In North Dakota, we did best in Fargo. We just did well in the Clark County, NV caucuses.

For some reason, we do great in counties on the Canada border. That isn't relevant here.

Someone mentioned Madison. I would assume, due to the big college there, that we'd do well there. That is, of course, assuming that we try to get people out of dorms and to the voting booth. And that they're registered.

The suburban Milwaukee CDs, especially between Milwaukee and Chicago, would be Romney territory. But I would think Madison and Milwaukee.

For the <1144 strategy, I would think, perhaps, that targeting Madison and Milwaukee would be better than targeting rural. But that isn't entirely clear.

If the <1144 strategy was properly developed, we'd be able to communicate that Ron Paul wants Madison, and Santorum wants the rural counties, and if everyone was on the same page (they aren't), people would act accordingly.

Based on polls, we're talking about which CDs we'd lose by the most in Wisc.

When people say "Vote Santorum to Stop Romney", what they're hoping happens is that the Ron Paul people vote Santorum in those places where Santorum is strong, and that the Santorum people vote Ron Paul where Ron Paul is strong.

[opinionatedfool]

Delegates, delegates, delegates. However it works in Wisconsin that's what needs to happen. If the popular vote doesn't matter, then we shouldn't worry about it.

[kathy88]

+rep to OP for a great first post. Welcome to the forums!

[rpwi]

Someone mentioned Madison. I would assume, due to the big college there, that we'd do well there. That is, of course, assuming that we try to get people out of dorms and to the voting booth. And that they're registered.The 2nd district (Madison) is quite winnable IMO. It's extremely liberal and has a large college educated population that is quite anti-war...if Ron can push libertarian-left issues and get good voter turnout...he can win the three delegates for this district.


The suburban Milwaukee CDs, especially between Milwaukee and Chicago, would be Romney territory. But I would think Madison and Milwaukee.Yeah...The CD to the west of Milwaukee (mostly burbs) is big time Romney territory...little hope for Paul there. The CD to the South of Milwaukee is Ryan's district and is another neo-con strong-hold...no hope there. Milwaukee itself is interesting...because whites are a minority (neo-cons tend to be white)...so if Paul can get turnout from the hispanics and blacks...coupled with strong far-east support near the universities...he has a chance. Still will be tough to go against Romney here. Think the Madison CD and the SW CD by La Crosse are our best bets.

[jeremiahj13]

I'm in Milwaukee District, the few people I know support Ron Paul :)

[69360]

The latest poll-

Romney 46
Santorum 33
Paul 8
Gingrich 7

Sadly that'll probably be the order they finish in. I suspect Ron will overperform to double digits, but that's about it.

[HaryTemp]

Well, I wouldn't say rural over urban. State by state it's different. In North Dakota, we did best in Fargo. We just did well in the Clark County, NV caucuses.

For some reason, we do great in counties on the Canada border. That isn't relevant here.

Someone mentioned Madison. I would assume, due to the big college there, that we'd do well there. That is, of course, assuming that we try to get people out of dorms and to the voting booth. And that they're registered.

The suburban Milwaukee CDs, especially between Milwaukee and Chicago, would be Romney territory. But I would think Madison and Milwaukee.

For the <1144 strategy, I would think, perhaps, that targeting Madison and Milwaukee would be better than targeting rural. But that isn't entirely clear.

If the <1144 strategy was properly developed, we'd be able to communicate that Ron Paul wants Madison, and Santorum wants the rural counties, and if everyone was on the same page (they aren't), people would act accordingly.

Based on polls, we're talking about which CDs we'd lose by the most in Wisc.

When people say "Vote Santorum to Stop Romney", what they're hoping happens is that the Ron Paul people vote Santorum in those places where Santorum is strong, and that the Santorum people vote Ron Paul where Ron Paul is strong.

OK...I guess it is different state by state...but as a general rule, Ron Paul seems to do the best in districts where less than 250 or so votes are cast whereas Romney seems to get like 65%+ of the votes in areas with tens of thousands of votes. I think primaries are probably more likely for this to be true, and that is really what is mostly left.

But sure...there are exceptions, but I am sure the campaign can identify which districts to target for the maximum cost effectiveness.

As rough as it sounds, the best strategy for someone whose budget is tight to get as many earned delegates as possible is to basically ignore large portions of the population. You could argue that that would run the risk of pissing off those people when it comes to the generatil elections...but if you don;t GEt to the general election, then it doesn't matter how much they love you.

I know hindsight is 20-20 but if he had done this in all the primary states...giving up trying to see his name on top of the Results page but instead just trying to cherry pick handfuls of delegates, he could probably have 75 more delegates in his column right now. And I mean the earned delegates which will given any convention plan more credibility.

After all...which would you rather do...win 4 districts and 10 delegates but get only 7% of the overall populate vote for the entire state, or get 10% of the overall popular vote, but having that spread out to the point where you win only 1 district and 3 delegates?

[Badger Paul]

The second and the third districts are his best hopes for pick-ups (along with the 4th which is the whole City of Milwaukee). I would love to see RP take up the cause of raw milk while in Wisconsin.

[RonPaulFanInGA]

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?368595-New-Wisconsin-Poll

Paul is behind Romney by about forty percentage points, and Wisconsin is winner-take-all for the at-large delegates.

[Trigonx]

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?368595-New-Wisconsin-Poll

Paul is behind Romney by about forty percentage points, and Wisconsin is winner-take-all for the at-large delegates.

Winner take all by CD and State. So we can possibly win CD's but it would be extremely tough.

[sl7yz0r]

Winner take all by CD and State. So we can possibly win CD's but it would be extremely tough.

are these delegates chosen at the district caucuses? and simply bound to vote in rd1 for the winner of their district? or are the delegates chosen by the campaigns who win the district?

..if that makes any sense

[69360]

OK...I guess it is different state by state...but as a general rule, Ron Paul seems to do the best in districts where less than 250 or so votes are cast whereas Romney seems to get like 65%+ of the votes in areas with tens of thousands of votes. I think primaries are probably more likely for this to be true, and that is really what is mostly left.


In general people that live in low population rural areas like to be left alone with minimal government interference in their lives. So Ron does well with them.

Ron got 25% in my county in PA last time. The area has grown a lot in the last 4 years, more than I'd like actually. I'm hoping he still does well here but am worried about it.

[Badger Paul]

Wisconsin has a pretty simple delegate selection process. Delegates are awarded both winner take all and by CD. The campaigns pick those who are going to represent them and ocne they are given the party seal of approval at district caucuses and state convention, they will represent the candidate at the national convention. So there's no chance at being a "stealth" delegate for another candidate chosen in complicated caucus process...
...even if it's our best chance of winning.

[Trigonx]

just had a robo call promoting Santorum.

[alucard13mmfmj]

Wisconsin has a pretty simple delegate selection process. Delegates are awarded both winner take all and by CD. The campaigns pick those who are going to represent them and ocne they are given the party seal of approval at district caucuses and state convention, they will represent the candidate at the national convention. So there's no chance at being a "stealth" delegate for another candidate chosen in complicated caucus process...
...even if it's our best chance of winning.

careful about stealth delegatee strategy =s.. apparently some people here dont like it or think it cant be implemented significantly.

[HaryTemp]

In general people that live in low population rural areas like to be left alone with minimal government interference in their lives. So Ron does well with them.

Ron got 25% in my county in PA last time. The area has grown a lot in the last 4 years, more than I'd like actually. I'm hoping he still does well here but am worried about it.

Out of curiosity, are you in a frackig town? Those seem to be the booming PA areas over the years...tanks in part to the asinine politicians north of hte border in NY where I am that refuse to accept science and keep trying to ban it. Oh sure...they all want the energy. they just want OTHER peope to supply it for them.

[69360]

Out of curiosity, are you in a frackig town? Those seem to be the booming PA areas over the years...tanks in part to the asinine politicians north of hte border in NY where I am that refuse to accept science and keep trying to ban it. Oh sure...they all want the energy. they just want OTHER peope to supply it for them.

No, I'm in SE PA, they don't frack here, it was mostly farming when I first moved here but now people from NJ/NY are moving in and bringing all their trouble with them. I'm planning on moving to New England soon. Either Maine or New Hampshire, I like to be left alone.

I'm not a fan of fracking. It's caused too much trouble in this state. I have no problem with conventional drilling.

[Howfar]

All i've seen of adds here in WI is negative Santorum adds, thats it. Mostly Walker stuff going on now.

[badger4RP]

Delegates, delegates, delegates. However it works in Wisconsin that's what needs to happen. If the popular vote doesn't matter, then we shouldn't worry about it. good luck... ive been trying for weeks the get on the delegate list and it basically takes a blood relationship or gun to the chairman's head. we'll see i know there was a strong contingent of Y4RP at the Dane Co. (Madison) Caucus but there has been little talk of delegates across WI as they are tied to precincts which we have low chance of winning... unless we have historically low turnout due to focus on the recall a month later. We will work hard but the establishment runs deep in Wisconsin.

[badger4RP]

sorry to sum up popular vote is the only things that matters here.

[badger4RP]

are these delegates chosen at the district caucuses? and simply bound to vote in rd1 for the winner of their district? or are the delegates chosen by the campaigns who win the district?

..if that makes any sense

my understanding is that they are chosen by winning campaigns but i seem to recall it being different in 08... we had RP delegates bound to McCain then