New Wisconsin Poll

[RonPaulFanInGA]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/wisconsin/2012_wisconsin_republican_primary

Romney: 46%
Santorum: 33%
Paul: 8%
Gingrich: 7%

[sailingaway]

Ron's going to be there next week, hopefully we can bring that up. I have to look up if it is proportional in Wisconsin....

[RonPaulFanInGA]

The cross-tabs in this poll asked the respondents how they would vote if the candidate they support is not the GOP nominee:

Among those that support Romney: 91% would vote for the GOP nominee, 4% would vote for Obama and 2% would vote third party.
Among those that support Santorum: 88% would vote for the GOP nominee, 6% would vote for Obama and 4% would vote third party.
Among those that support Gingrich: 85% would vote for the GOP nominee, 1% would vote for Obama and 3% would vote third party.
Among those that support Paul: 43% would vote for the GOP nominee, 21% would vote for Obama and 21% would vote third party.

[rpwi]

Believe the at large delegates are winner take all, but each of our eight districts has three winner-take-all delegates that go straight to the national convention.

Had a thread about the best CD's we could win if anybody is interested:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?368312-How-Paul-can-get-congressional-delegates-from-Wisconsin

Sailing...where is Ron stopping by?

[jbauer]

Thats interesting on the Paul numbers. In WI though he only has 9%, a number probalby low enough to skew the poll for national results? I'll assume that the ones in WI that are voting for Paul are diehards at this point. Would be nice to see that nation-wide to really show the bastards we mean business.



The cross-tabs in this poll asked the respondents how they would vote if the candidate they support is not the GOP nominee:

Among those that support Romney: 91% would vote for the GOP nominee, 4% would vote for Obama and 2% would vote third party.
Among those that support Santorum: 88% would vote for the GOP nominee, 6% would vote for Obama and 4% would vote third party.
Among those that support Gingrich: 85% would vote for the GOP nominee, 1% would vote for Obama and 3% would vote third party.
Among those that support Paul: 43% would vote for the GOP nominee, 21% would vote for Obama and 21% would vote third party.

[mello]

Ron's going to be there next week, hopefully we can bring that up. I have to look up if it is proportional in Wisconsin....

Where & when exactly?

[Gage]

Where & when exactly?
Official Facebook event: http://www.facebook.com/events/397447330284959/

[jeremiahj13]

Ron's going to be there next week, hopefully we can bring that up. I have to look up if it is proportional in Wisconsin....

Wisconsin is winner-take-all PER CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT, and it is 3 delegates per district. For Example if Mitt Romney win's Milwaukee's congressional district (district 4) he will receive all 3 delegates for the 4th district.

[HaryTemp]

Thats interesting on the Paul numbers. In WI though he only has 9%, a number probalby low enough to skew the poll for national results? I'll assume that the ones in WI that are voting for Paul are diehards at this point. Would be nice to see that nation-wide to really show the bastards we mean business.


The problem is...not to be a downer, but 6% of Romney voters is about the same as 42% of Paul voters in this poll. And if you count a vote for Obama is a loss of 2 votes since it would require two votes to mae up for the switch, then it is a 10% loss of votes from Romney supporters if he loses, and a 31.5% loss of Paul supporters if he loses. And that would mean that the Republicans would lose more votes if Romney loses. (Going from this poll, Santorum losing costs the most votes)

Here is quick rundown of the numbers since I am bored and want to do some math. (yup..I am an engineering nerd) Again, counting a vote for Obama as a loss of 2 votes and a third party vote as a loss of 1....and assuming that there are only 1000 voters in the whole state for simplicity...

Romney losing would cost the Republicans 40 votes. Santorum losing would cost 53 votes. Paul losing would cost 25. Gingrich losing would cost just 4. (with rounding)

Therefore:
Romney winning would cost a total of 82 votes out of 1000. (Santorum's 53, Paul's 25 and Gingrich's 4)
Santorum winning would cost 69 votes.
Paul winning would cost 97 votes.
Gingrich winning would cost 118 votes. (almost 1 out of every 8 people!)


But o be honest...I have no idea if these numbers mean anything. What is it like for ANY year like that? There is no way to know if this same thing was happening in 1980 with Reagan or in 1988 with Bush, etc.

[rpwi]

My prediction for delegate allocations form Wisconsin:

At large: Romney 18 of 18 delegates

CD's: 1,3,4,5 > Romney: 12 delegates
CD's: 2 > Paul: 3 delegates (one can hope)
CD's: 6,7, 8 > Santorum: 9 delegates

Total:

Romney: 30
Santorum: 9
Paul: 3

Hopefully Newt does really well to steal neo-con votes from Santorum/Romney

[HaryTemp]

Hopefully Newt does really well to steal neo-con votes from Santorum/Romney

He is more likely to take them away from just Santorum. That is the problem for the <1144 strategy. It helps Romney win 40%-36% when Gingrich has, say, 9%