RPF hated pollster PPP shows Ron Paul best among GOP vs. Obama

[SCOTUSman]

Barack Obama 46
Ron Paul 43
Undecided 10
Obama +3

Obama 50
Gingrich 42
Undecided 8
Obama +8

Obama 48
Romney 44
Undecided 8
Obama + 4

Obama 46
Romney 39
Gary Johnson 7
Undecided 8
Obama +7

Obama 48
Santorum 45
Undecided 7
Obama +3

Obama JOB APPROVAL (different than favorable numbers):
Approve 48
Disapprove 48
Not Sure 4

Favorables:
Gingrich 28 Favorable, 61 Unfavorable, 11 Unsure: -33
Paul 30 Favorable, 58 Unfavorable, 12 Unsure: -28
Romney 33 Favorable, 58 Unfavorable, 10 Unsure: -25
Santorum 36 Favorable, 53 Unfavorable, 11 Unsure: -17



PPP surveyed 900 American voters from March 15th to 17th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by anycampaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_US_032212.pdf

[sailingaway]

So does Economist/Yougov http://www.scribd.com/TheHillNewspaper/d/86355149-Econ-Top-Lines

PPP does change demographics when not close to a contest, and has underpolled Ron significantly in his best states.
They don't even call themselves neutral, they CLASSIFY themselves as a Dem pollster. When he was surging, obviously, Ron was more of a concern to them.

[sailingaway]

looking at that and the fact they polled Johnson, they may be pushing for Ron to run independent again.

[SCOTUSman]

Probably. I'm surprised that the GOP is still doing this well against Obama considering his approval numbers are net even. I would have thought when I first saw that number Obama would be ahead by 7+ on everyone.

But PPP does get to play games if they want, doesn't mean that Paul isn't doing worse. I think the numbers are true.

[SCOTUSman]

They didn't poll Ron in a three way race though. I thought they would, if they did it for Johnson.

Nobody has polled Ron in a three way in a long time.

[sailingaway]

They didn't poll Ron in a three way race though. I thought they would, if they did it for Johnson.

Nobody has polled Ron in a three way in a long time.

I'd be interested in that, academically speaking.

I think all the GOP are polling behind Obama at the moment. He rises and falls. I was just responding to your 'RPF hated pollster' snark.

[SCOTUSman]

I'd be interested in that, academically speaking.

I think all the GOP are polling behind Obama at the moment. He rises and falls. I was just responding to your 'RPF hated pollster' snark.

I understand that, but it is true. No pollster has gotten anywhere close to the flack PPP has this cycle.

[bluesc]

I understand that, but it is true. No pollster has gotten anywhere close to the flack PPP has this cycle.

No other pollster has been polling every caucus state - inaccurately - this cycle.

[r3volution]

i guess RPF hates PPP as much as you seem to hate RPF (judging buy 90% of your previous posts) . so why do you bother posting this here ?

[SCOTUSman]

No other pollster has been polling every caucus state - inaccurately - this cycle.

A) Not every, that is completely false. They messed up on about three states. And they were the ONLY ones to poll it. I love how you attack them for polling.

Get over it. They have nailed the primaries.

Lots of illogical thinking going on. We grasp at straws so much we blame the pollster for polling very very hard to poll caucus states by their own admission. Yet you go rampant and psycho over it.

[SCOTUSman]

i guess RPF hates PPP as much as you seem to hate RPF (judging buy 90% of your previous posts) . so why do you bother posting this here ?

I support Ron Paul, get over it.

[Jeremy]

RPF hated pollster? They are one of my favorites other than a few of their silly tweets.

[bluesc]

A) Not every, that is completely false. They messed up on about three states. And they were the ONLY ones to poll it. I love how you attack them for polling.

Get over it. They have nailed the primaries.

Lots of illogical thinking going on. We grasp at straws so much we blame the pollster for polling very very hard to poll caucus states by their own admission. Yet you go rampant and psycho over it.

Let's not restart the debate that we have had before that ended with you conceding my point (which you seem to be challenging again..)

They are pollsters. It is their job to put out highly accurate polls and if one fails, adjust accordingly. They have failed way too many times to hold any credibility. Harsh criticism comes with the territory.

[Schiff_FTW]

This is hardly news, polls have been showing Paul within the MOE versus Obama for 6 months. Too bad the campaign failed to do anything about it. (As evidenced by exit polls showing Republicans rating Paul as least electable.)

[sailingaway]

No other pollster has been polling every caucus state - inaccurately - this cycle.

this + 1000

[Havax]

Gary would need 15% average across 5 national polls to get in the debates. I think only Ron could pull that by running independent. Interesting power Ron holds...


3. INDICATORS OF ELECTORAL SUPPORT

The CPD's third criterion requires that the candidate have a level of support of at least 15% (fifteen percent) of the national electorate as determined by five selected national public opinion polling organizations, using the average of those organizations' most recent publicly-reported results at the time of the determination.

[Schiff_FTW]

Gary would need 15% in one poll to get on the debate stage right?

It would need to be the average of 5 polls, taken in September.

The "Commission on Presidential Debates" is controlled by the former heads of the DNC and RNC; they're not letting the Libertarian Party candidate in.

[sailingaway]

Gary would need 15% average across 5 national polls to get in the debates. I think only Ron could pull that by running independent. Interesting power Ron holds...

Amazing the rules drafted when the ex-chairs of the two major parties run the rules committee....

Ron had 18% and 21% last two times he was polled in a three way race, however, that was a long time ago and SO MUCH can be done to shift demographics in polls that it is just a rotten standard all together.

[r3volution]

I support Ron Paul, get over it. i challenge any1 on this forum to glance through the last 3 months worth of posts made by you and tell me that the negativity , name calling and arguing is support .

[sailingaway]

It would need to be the average of 5 polls, taken in September.

The "Commission on Presidential Debates" is controlled by the former heads of the DNC and RNC; they're not letting the Libertarian Party candidate in.

What if they simply don't DO five polls in September showing three ways? Pretty easy to keep someone out. ARE there even five NON GOP nationally recognized pollsters?

[Schiff_FTW]

What if they simply don't DO five polls in September showing three ways? Pretty easy to keep someone out. ARE there even five NON GOP nationally recognized pollsters?

Who knows, Gary Johnson has the infamous Richard Nixon attack dog Roger Stone working for him, so maybe he'll be able to pull some dirty tricks to get him in. I doubt it though.

[sailingaway]

Who knows, Gary Johnson has the infamous Richard Nixon attack dog Roger Stone working for him, so maybe he'll be able to pull some dirty tricks to get him in. I doubt it though.

I don't follow Johnson, I was more thinking of the unfairness of the process.

[SCOTUSman]

Who knows, Gary Johnson has the infamous Richard Nixon attack dog Roger Stone working for him, so maybe he'll be able to pull some dirty tricks to get him in. I doubt it though.

I'm pretty sure they had a list, trust me there would be.

CBS
NBC
Wall Street Journal
Fox
Rasmussen
Gallup
PPP
Survey USA
American Research Group
Reuters
Qunnipiac
ABC/Wash Post
McClatchy
Pew Research
Marist
GWU Battleground
Bloomberg
Associated Press
Even Newsweek and Time conduct polls in the general

[SCOTUSman]

Just to prove to you how bored PPP is and they love polling because that is what they do. Here is a poll they released today on polling about the Boston Red Sox http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MA_032212.pdf

They will poll anything and everything, even when others don't poll.

[PaulSoHard]

I've tweeted it. Surprised Santorum does better than Romney too lololol

+,
Obama ties Paul with independents but leads Romney by six, Santorum by eight, and Gingrich by 15

[Liberty74]

Does anyone know the breakdown of the registered voting demographics? I remembered another poll by Reuters the other month that had Obama up too BUT polled 50% Democrats, Independents and Republicans made up the rest about evenly split but cannot remember who was polled more. That poll was so f'ed up because that is NOT the reality. It's more like 33D/33R/33I give or take a little from each. It's not 50D/28R/22I or something stupid like that. Actually, people are leaving the Democrat party in droves and at the point of 2010 elections, more people considered themselves to be Republicans.

So what is the break down of the PPP poll if anyone knows?

[Liberty74]

No other pollster has been polling every caucus state - inaccurately - this cycle.

They have called almost everything accurately. Did they call the correct final voting percentages in their polls? No, because that is impossible when you have serious movement with 4 to 8 candidates like in Iowa, Minnesota and Nevada. If you release a poll with Santorum at say 18% the day before the voting but he was surging the last few days from say 10% and he ends up with 24%, is PPP wrong if they claimed Santorum is surging fast and could pull off a win? No, they were right but according to many here who cannot think and put variables together, PPP was off by 6 points and therefore are always off by that much. I'm sorry but it does not work like that.

[sailingaway]

Just to prove to you how bored PPP is and they love polling because that is what they do. Here is a poll they released today on polling about the Boston Red Sox http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MA_032212.pdf

They will poll anything and everything, even when others don't poll.

and when it hurts Ron because it sets expectations and can't be done accurately, we will hate them for it. I will anyhow. It impacts the narrative far too much. They have a right of speech, but I'd rather they aimed it at someone ELSE's best chance states. I'm partisan.

[sailingaway]

They have called almost everything accurately. Did they call the correct final voting percentages in their polls? No, because that is impossible when you have serious movement with 4 to 8 candidates like in Iowa, Minnesota and Nevada. If you release a poll with Santorum at say 18% the day before the voting but he was surging the last few days from say 10% and he ends up with 24%, is PPP wrong if they claimed Santorum is surging fast and could pull off a win? No, they were right but according to many here who cannot think and put variables together, PPP was off by 6 points and therefore are always off by that much. I'm sorry but it does not work like that.

They polled Ron WAY low in ALL his best states and the one they didn't poll, Maine, Ron did best of all in.

[SCOTUSman]

and when it hurts Ron because it sets expectations and can't be done accurately, we will hate them for it. I will anyhow. It impacts the narrative far too much. They have a right of speech, but I'd rather they aimed it at someone ELSE's best chance states. I'm partisan.

Such as a poll about how crazy Rick Santorum is :P?

Though you do have a point. As Romney is gaining momentum in the nomination process, they released their dog poll. About how Romney treats his dogs versus Obama treats his dogs. And then specifically mentioned the Romney with the dog on his roof incident in the poll and then asked whether that was humane or inhumane and also if that would change the likelihood of their vote. Clearly that was to make Romney look bad and Obama good. So their was a bit of an agenda there. They knew about this forever and didn't do it early in the nomination process.

[Gravik]

58% had an unfavorable opinion of Ron Paul.....

[SCOTUSman]

58% had an unfavorable opinion of Ron Paul.....

Because the left has the meme in them that Ron Paul would let the uninsured die because of the yell from the audience. That is still constantly cited by the left :(.

[Liberty74]

Okay, just what I thought. The PPP poll is off IMO by at least 5 points in favor of Obama.

Democrat 41%
Republican 37%
Independent/Other 22%

In 2008 election it was...

Democrat 37%
Republican 32%
Indy 29%

BUT BUT BUT in 2010 (Republican landslide) it was...

Democrat 35%
Republican 35%
Indy 29%

If one was to poll with more accurate voting registration demographics, we could easily conclude everyone but Newt would beat Obama today.

[sailingaway]

Because the left has the meme in them that Ron Paul would let the uninsured die because of the yell from the audience. That is still constantly cited by the left :(.

The Economist/Yougov poll gave Ron the second highest favorables right after Romney (one point lower) but it was still less than 50%. But if they dislike the alternative more.....

[SCOTUSman]

Okay, just what I thought. The PPP poll is off IMO by at least 5 points in favor of Obama.

Democrat 41%
Republican 37%
Independent/Other 22%

In 2008 election it was...

Democrat 37%
Republican 32%
Indy 29%

BUT BUT BUT in 2010 (Republican landslide) it was...

Democrat 35%
Republican 35%
Indy 29%

If one was to poll with more accurate voting registration demographics, we could easily conclude everyone but Newt would beat Obama today.

That doesn't mean it isn't accurate. They do random sampling and people self describe themselves as that. They don't actively seek out 41% dems, 37% repubs, etc.

This is what the people they contact self describe themselves. They don't know prior to the fact. While it could be a bad sample..it could also be the fact more americans are identifying themselves as Democrats.

[Schiff_FTW]

As of January:

http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/IndependentsGalluprecordpoll/2012/01/09/id/423503



Forty percent of Americans considered themselves political independents in 2011, according to Gallup. That compares with 31 percent who called themselves Democrats and 27 percent who said they are Republicans.

[Liberty74]

That doesn't mean it isn't accurate. They do random sampling and people self describe themselves as that. They don't actively seek out 41% dems, 37% repubs, etc.

This is what the people they contact self describe themselves. They don't know prior to the fact. While it could be a bad sample..it could also be the fact more americans are identifying themselves as Democrats.

Wrong!

First, more Americans are not identifying themselves as Democrats. Rather, they are leaving the Party in droves.

Second, if you want a more accurate presidential polling, you must come close to real demographics according to registration, gender and race. It might be true that the PPP "just happened" to get more Democrats to respond than those in the other two parties. Regardless, it's not a true make up of reality and who votes, hence my point is that PPP has overestimated Obama's approval numbers and his percentages when matched up to the other candidates.

Obama is not in the lead IMO.

[sailingaway]

Okay, just what I thought. The PPP poll is off IMO by at least 5 points in favor of Obama.

Democrat 41%
Republican 37%
Independent/Other 22%

In 2008 election it was...

Democrat 37%
Republican 32%
Indy 29%

BUT BUT BUT in 2010 (Republican landslide) it was...

Democrat 35%
Republican 35%
Indy 29%

If one was to poll with more accurate voting registration demographics, we could easily conclude everyone but Newt would beat Obama today.

They underpolled indies by your numbers, which means Ron and Romney might beat Obama, if corrected, but I don't see Santa or Grinch doing so.

[Liberty74]

As of January:

http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/IndependentsGalluprecordpoll/2012/01/09/id/423503

Thank you for that find. It just validates my point even more. :D

[BUSHLIED]

We've always have known this but no one seems to care....

[sailingaway]

Thank you for that find. It just validates my point even more. :D

except that Santa and Grinch don't do well with independents (particularly Santa) and independents are the ones MASSIVELY underpolled.

[Schiff_FTW]

We've always have known this but no one seems to care....

That's what I don't get. RP should've had the multiple polls memorized ready to bring them up not only when the media questioned his electability, but on just about every other question as well. Or if he is too modest for that at least the campaign should've picked up the slack in their mailers/advertisements.

A good case could be made that Romney is winning on the basis of this issue along.

IMO the only campaign functionary worth his salt is Doug Wead; unfortunately his media appearances have been much, much too far and in between to have any real effect.

[Voluntarist]

xxxxx