rpwi
03-21-2012, 05:23 PM
Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but here's how Wisconsin delegate process will work (coming up April 3rd).
Wisconsin has 42 delegates...18 will go to the candidate that has the greatest number of votes...then three delegates a piece will be awarded to each of our 8 congressional districts. Each district is winner-take-all as are the at-large delegates.
The at-large delegates unfortunately are probably out of reach given Ron's national poll numbers. Although a miracle could happen I suppose... Unlike say Illinois that was a semi-closed primary, Wisconsin is completely open which means independents and dems can vote freely. Wisconsin had very good donation/population numbers and could trend much more like Minnesota/Iowa rather than Illinois/Michigan. Marquette University even had Paul at 17% at one point in time...but this has probably come way down as his media exposure has dried up.
Where Ron has a much better chance to score delegates will be in the individual congressional districts around Wisconsin.
First some basic demographic information for Wisconsin...
Map of our 8 districts: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/WI
Map of Paul's 2008 results by county (you have to hover each county though): http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/county/#WIREPMAPprimary
Paul's 2008 campaign (roughly) did better the further North and West you went. As the map shows the big republican strongholds are the Milwaukee suburbs and the Fox River Vally (Green Bay to Fond du Lac).
Map of 2008 dem primary results by county:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/county/#WIDEMMAPprimary
What is significant here is it shows that the dem primary attracted three times the voters in all (in some places like Madison roughly 8 times). This represents many independents that could vote for Paul now.
Here is a map of the Obama/McCain election by county:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#mapPWI
What this shows is that the SE part of the state is a strongly republican and generally...the NW is strongly democratic. Paul has a better chance IMO in 'liberal' areas of the country that have not has many pro-war neo-cons that reject him because of one stupid issue.
So which districts are Paul's best prospects?
Start with the 1st (SE part of the state...Paul Ryan's district). I have little hope for this district. It has some Milwaukee burbs and goes down all the way to the Illinois border. These are going to be wealthier and more urban republicans which should favor Romney IMO.
Then there is the fifth district (western suburbs of Milwaukee). This should probably be Romney's best district. Very white, very affluent, and lot's of neocons. Milwaukee is very segregated... The city itself is mostly black/hispanic/liberal and the western burbs are very white, wealthy and republican from all the white-flight.
Then there is the 4th district (pretty much Milwaukee itself). This should be another Romney stronghold IMO. The black and hispanic populations are sleeping giants...and if motivated (perhaps if Paul talked about the drug and prison problems we have) they could turn out to vote, but it is unlikely. The far-east side is good Paul territory...LOT of youngsters, UW-Milwaukee is there and Marquette is close by. Very liberal but should be a lot of Paul support here.
There is the 6th district (Lake Winnebago and the heart of the Fox River Valley). This area has a LOT of republican voters. Area is very industrial, but the population is much less affluent than the Milwaukee Burbs and this area is our bible-belt of sorts. This should be a good Santorum district...see little hope for Paul here.
8th district (NE Wisconsin...Green Bay and rest of the Fox River Valley up to the UP). Lot of poor religious white trash in the Green Bay area...pockets near the UP could be strong for Paul...but probably won't be enough to overwhelm the historically backwards voters in Green Bay.
7th district (NW Wisconsin). Probably Paul's third best prospect. Area while economically one of the weaker areas in the state, is much more liberal and college educated IMO than say the Fox River Valley. Tough to say... Pockets should be strong for Paul...campaigning here is tricky though as this the least dense district...possible stops could include Superior and Wausau.
3rd district (SW Wisconsin). IMO Paul's second best prospect (Badger Paul thinks it's Pauls #1 best CD prospect). Numbers from the 2008 election average better here than the rest of the state...plus it borders MN which tends to be relatively pro-Paul. The largest cities are Eau Clare and La Crosse...both of which have medium sized campuses that could server as a spring board for publicity. (both cities have their own tv markets) IMO La Crosse would be the better prospect if Paul wanted to campaign in the third.
2nd district (South Central Wisconsin...home to the state capital and one of the most liberal cities in the country in Madison Wisconsin). Think this is Paul's best bet to get at least three delegates. The rural country bumpkin areas around Madison will probably go to Santorum...Mitt will probably get the small conservative burbs like Middleton...and Paul has a very good chance to take Madison itself. The largest University is here (41k enrollment) and the population is very educated for a mid-sized city. This is a very politically active city (both Kerry and Obama were able to summon absolute mega rallies around the state capitol that got drudged prominently both times) and the city has a decent libertarian-left streak. Key will be to get the liberals out to vote for Paul...which is doable. The mayor was a prominent anti-Vietnam protester and druggie...so that gives you an idea of what we're dealing with. If Paul were to come to the capitol or campus and rail against Obama for his 2014 Afghan withdrawal deadline, him being being hypocritical by locking up drug users (China has less prisoners than the US yet we have a quarter the population...), and if he goes after financial issues like the bailouts and the runwaway debt (all while targeting) Obama...he can steal a lot of liberal votes that want to send a message. The bailout issue is potent in Wisconsin...3 term senator Russ Feingold lost his job over his support of the bank bailouts...Paul can capitalize...
Madison is also a very good place to campaign IMO, not only because he will probably get the biggest crowds there and the demographics are most favorable IMO...but because the rest of the state media will be more apt to cover a visit there because this is the state capitol.
Santorum and Romney have already announced visits to Wisconsin (specifically Milwaukee)...hope Paul comes here as well. Preferably with early announcements so the newspapers and tv stations can provide extra free publicity.
Thoughts from fellow Wisconsinites? Thoughts from non-Wisconsinites? I hope Paul can spare the time to campaign here as there is a large break after the DC/Wisconsin/Maryland contests...so there shouldn't be a lot of competition from other states for Ron.
Wisconsin has 42 delegates...18 will go to the candidate that has the greatest number of votes...then three delegates a piece will be awarded to each of our 8 congressional districts. Each district is winner-take-all as are the at-large delegates.
The at-large delegates unfortunately are probably out of reach given Ron's national poll numbers. Although a miracle could happen I suppose... Unlike say Illinois that was a semi-closed primary, Wisconsin is completely open which means independents and dems can vote freely. Wisconsin had very good donation/population numbers and could trend much more like Minnesota/Iowa rather than Illinois/Michigan. Marquette University even had Paul at 17% at one point in time...but this has probably come way down as his media exposure has dried up.
Where Ron has a much better chance to score delegates will be in the individual congressional districts around Wisconsin.
First some basic demographic information for Wisconsin...
Map of our 8 districts: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/WI
Map of Paul's 2008 results by county (you have to hover each county though): http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/county/#WIREPMAPprimary
Paul's 2008 campaign (roughly) did better the further North and West you went. As the map shows the big republican strongholds are the Milwaukee suburbs and the Fox River Vally (Green Bay to Fond du Lac).
Map of 2008 dem primary results by county:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/county/#WIDEMMAPprimary
What is significant here is it shows that the dem primary attracted three times the voters in all (in some places like Madison roughly 8 times). This represents many independents that could vote for Paul now.
Here is a map of the Obama/McCain election by county:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#mapPWI
What this shows is that the SE part of the state is a strongly republican and generally...the NW is strongly democratic. Paul has a better chance IMO in 'liberal' areas of the country that have not has many pro-war neo-cons that reject him because of one stupid issue.
So which districts are Paul's best prospects?
Start with the 1st (SE part of the state...Paul Ryan's district). I have little hope for this district. It has some Milwaukee burbs and goes down all the way to the Illinois border. These are going to be wealthier and more urban republicans which should favor Romney IMO.
Then there is the fifth district (western suburbs of Milwaukee). This should probably be Romney's best district. Very white, very affluent, and lot's of neocons. Milwaukee is very segregated... The city itself is mostly black/hispanic/liberal and the western burbs are very white, wealthy and republican from all the white-flight.
Then there is the 4th district (pretty much Milwaukee itself). This should be another Romney stronghold IMO. The black and hispanic populations are sleeping giants...and if motivated (perhaps if Paul talked about the drug and prison problems we have) they could turn out to vote, but it is unlikely. The far-east side is good Paul territory...LOT of youngsters, UW-Milwaukee is there and Marquette is close by. Very liberal but should be a lot of Paul support here.
There is the 6th district (Lake Winnebago and the heart of the Fox River Valley). This area has a LOT of republican voters. Area is very industrial, but the population is much less affluent than the Milwaukee Burbs and this area is our bible-belt of sorts. This should be a good Santorum district...see little hope for Paul here.
8th district (NE Wisconsin...Green Bay and rest of the Fox River Valley up to the UP). Lot of poor religious white trash in the Green Bay area...pockets near the UP could be strong for Paul...but probably won't be enough to overwhelm the historically backwards voters in Green Bay.
7th district (NW Wisconsin). Probably Paul's third best prospect. Area while economically one of the weaker areas in the state, is much more liberal and college educated IMO than say the Fox River Valley. Tough to say... Pockets should be strong for Paul...campaigning here is tricky though as this the least dense district...possible stops could include Superior and Wausau.
3rd district (SW Wisconsin). IMO Paul's second best prospect (Badger Paul thinks it's Pauls #1 best CD prospect). Numbers from the 2008 election average better here than the rest of the state...plus it borders MN which tends to be relatively pro-Paul. The largest cities are Eau Clare and La Crosse...both of which have medium sized campuses that could server as a spring board for publicity. (both cities have their own tv markets) IMO La Crosse would be the better prospect if Paul wanted to campaign in the third.
2nd district (South Central Wisconsin...home to the state capital and one of the most liberal cities in the country in Madison Wisconsin). Think this is Paul's best bet to get at least three delegates. The rural country bumpkin areas around Madison will probably go to Santorum...Mitt will probably get the small conservative burbs like Middleton...and Paul has a very good chance to take Madison itself. The largest University is here (41k enrollment) and the population is very educated for a mid-sized city. This is a very politically active city (both Kerry and Obama were able to summon absolute mega rallies around the state capitol that got drudged prominently both times) and the city has a decent libertarian-left streak. Key will be to get the liberals out to vote for Paul...which is doable. The mayor was a prominent anti-Vietnam protester and druggie...so that gives you an idea of what we're dealing with. If Paul were to come to the capitol or campus and rail against Obama for his 2014 Afghan withdrawal deadline, him being being hypocritical by locking up drug users (China has less prisoners than the US yet we have a quarter the population...), and if he goes after financial issues like the bailouts and the runwaway debt (all while targeting) Obama...he can steal a lot of liberal votes that want to send a message. The bailout issue is potent in Wisconsin...3 term senator Russ Feingold lost his job over his support of the bank bailouts...Paul can capitalize...
Madison is also a very good place to campaign IMO, not only because he will probably get the biggest crowds there and the demographics are most favorable IMO...but because the rest of the state media will be more apt to cover a visit there because this is the state capitol.
Santorum and Romney have already announced visits to Wisconsin (specifically Milwaukee)...hope Paul comes here as well. Preferably with early announcements so the newspapers and tv stations can provide extra free publicity.
Thoughts from fellow Wisconsinites? Thoughts from non-Wisconsinites? I hope Paul can spare the time to campaign here as there is a large break after the DC/Wisconsin/Maryland contests...so there shouldn't be a lot of competition from other states for Ron.