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Tyler_Durden
03-21-2012, 02:10 PM
hx x p://situationroom.blogs.cnn.com/2012/03/21/blitzers-blog-what-to-expect-at-a-contested-convention/


(CNN) – Mitt Romney may be in the driver’s seat right now, but there is still a chance he won’t be able to amass the 1,144 delegates needed to win the Republican presidential nomination before the party convention in Tampa at the end of August.

If he comes up short, there could be a contested convention. That means the delegates actually would have to vote on the convention floor for the nominee.

That has prompted many of us to take a closer look at the arcane party rules that would guide the voting.

Republican Party Rule No. 40 is intriguing. It could automatically eliminate Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul for any consideration at the convention.

For a candidate’s name to be considered, the rule says, that candidate must have won the plurality of delegates in at least five states. Here’s the rule’s exact language:

“Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a plurality of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.”

As you know, Ron Paul so far has not won a plurality of delegates in any state.

Newt Gingrich has won South Carolina and Georgia, but he’s still three states shy of meeting the convention requirement.

Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum have more than met the requirement.

We are going through the other rules to see what other surprises might be in store if no one gets to the magic number in advance. Stay tuned.


Edit: Looks like it's the latest MSM Meme:

GOP rule could sink Gingrich, Paul hopes to win at contested Republican convention
hxx p://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57401636-503544/gop-rule-could-sink-gingrich-paul-hopes-to-win-at-contested-republican-convention/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+cbsnews%2Ffeed+%28CBSNews.com %29


"Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul's slim hopes of winning the Republican presidential nomination depend primarily on their ability to triumph at a contested convention in August. The idea is that if front-runner Mitt Romney falls short of the 1,144 delegates he needs to secure the nomination outright before the convention, his rivals will seize the opportunity to win over the Republican faithful during the convention process.

That long-shot strategy depends on Gingrich and Paul actually getting on the convention ballot. And it now appears that may be a problem. The Atlanta-Journal Constitution has noticed a little-known rule - No. 40(b), to be exact - that would seem to keep the two candidates from being able to participate in a floor fight.*

The rule was adopted in 2008, and here's what it says: "Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a plurality of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination."

Gingrich has won a plurality in two states so far, South Carolina and Georgia; Paul has not won any states. The Republican National Convention confirms to CBS News that this means a candidate would not qualify for the first ballot at the convention unless they get, as the rule states, a plurality of delegates in five states.

On MSNBC's "The Daily Rundown" Wednesday morning, RNC Chairman Reince Preibus said the rule is "important."

"So when these candidates are adding up their delegates or when people out there have a particular issue that they would like to move at the convention, they had better make sure they at least have a plurality of five states to make these things happen," he said.

The Gingrich camp did not immediately respond to questions about how the rule affects their strategies. Paul campaign chairman Jesse Benton said he anticipated meeting the five-state threshold, saying in an email that "we are well positioned to carry WA, MN, AK, ND and ME among several others."

It's possible that even if Gingrich or Paul's delegates can't vote for their candidate on the first ballot, they could do so on subsequent ballots if Gingrich and/or Paul garners the support of a plurality of delegates from at least five states during the fight on the convention floor. Under Republican National Committee rules, Gingrich or Paul would need to be formally nominated after the first ballot for this to happen, and demonstrate their support in five states when this happens. It's an extremely unlikely scenario, though technically possible.

A related question: What happens to bound delegates if their candidate doesn't appear on the ballot? CBS News has contacted the four state Republican parties to explain what would happen to Gingrich and Paul's bound delegates if the candidates are not on the ballot; thus far only Mississippi Republican party has responded.

"[S]hould Gingrich not be on the first ballot, his delegates would be released in the same way that they would if he suspended his campaign," Communications Director Brett Kittredge said in an email."

rpwi
03-21-2012, 02:12 PM
Does that only apply to the first ballot? If not...then why do we keep hearing about Jeb Bush and Palin stepping and getting the nomination?

Darguth
03-21-2012, 02:18 PM
Eh, more MSM spin. He doesn't note the fact that many states that CNN has declared "won" are STILL CAUCUSING.

It's alright, we just keep fighting the good fight and let them bury their heads in the sand and tell the indoctrinated mass what they will. We're not going to be able to change any minds through that medium anyway (currently).

revned
03-21-2012, 02:21 PM
How long before we find out that Ron wins Maine, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Washington, Alaska, and Michigan? These 7 states should definitely pull in a plurality(win) in delegates for Paul. How long before the media has to flat-out admit this as fact? I'm ready to see some serious talk on this issue and they have to know that Paul is going to win those states.

rb3b3
03-21-2012, 02:26 PM
How long before we find out that Ron wins Maine, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Washington, Alaska, and Michigan? These 7 states should definitely pull in a plurality(win) in delegates for Paul. How long before the media has to flat-out admit this as fact? I'm ready to see some serious talk on this issue and they have to know that Paul is going to win those states.

my guess is that they WILL NEVER admit it!!!!!! The last thing the msm wants to do is create any type of momentum for Ron at all!!!!! We all know Ron is wayyyyyy to much of a threat to the establishment who believes that they OWN our country!!

wgadget
03-21-2012, 02:26 PM
There's a REASON the talking radio heads are afraid of a brokered convention and its name is RON PAUL.

They don't have a CLUE who has the unbound delegates in the caucus states, but chances are more of them belong to our guy than they want to let on.

wgadget
03-21-2012, 02:28 PM
my guess is that they WILL NEVER admit it!!!!!! The last thing the msm wants to do is create any type of momentum for Ron at all!!!!! We all know Ron is wayyyyyy to much of a threat to the establishment who believes that they OWN our country!!

I've heard them start to sound fearful of a brokered convention already, so they MUST know. Question is, will they bring up the topic, because if they do, they will have to talk about Ron Paul. Interestingly, I saw an article somewhere about this very topic as it concerns the Grinch, but not Ron...heh. Maybe THAT'S why Grinch is staying in: so they can discuss a brokered convention without talking about Ron.

Tyler_Durden
03-21-2012, 02:30 PM
How long before we find out that Ron wins Maine, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Washington, Alaska, and Michigan? These 7 states should definitely pull in a plurality(win) in delegates for Paul. How long before the media has to flat-out admit this as fact? I'm ready to see some serious talk on this issue and they have to know that Paul is going to win those states.

I updated the opening thread with the broken CBS article that says this:

"Paul campaign chairman Jesse Benton said he anticipated meeting the five-state threshold, saying in an email that "we are well positioned to carry WA, MN, AK, ND and ME among several others."

wgadget
03-21-2012, 02:33 PM
I love stealth.

Screw 'em.

:p

Philosophy_of_Politics
03-21-2012, 02:33 PM
Expect a massive wave of disinformation regarding the truth of GOP rules and Brokered Conventions, especially after Ron Paul's Jay Leno interview last night.

NoOneButPaul
03-21-2012, 02:48 PM
my guess is that they WILL NEVER admit it!!!!!! The last thing the msm wants to do is create any type of momentum for Ron at all!!!!! We all know Ron is wayyyyyy to much of a threat to the establishment who believes that they OWN our country!!

I think you're half right...

I think they'll admit it when they can truly paint us as thieves of the election.

sailingaway
03-21-2012, 02:52 PM
I think you're half right...

I think they'll admit it when they can truly paint us as thieves of the election.

It is a little harder for them since Santorum and Grinch have come out saying they are using the same plan.

revned
03-21-2012, 02:55 PM
I think you're half right...

I think they'll admit it when they can truly paint us as thieves of the election.

And then Ron can play the Abraham Lincoln card. Lincoln was the first Republican president and he won in a brokered convention with an almost identical strategy to that of Ron.

Ivash
03-21-2012, 03:37 PM
That is a good question: When will we know the status of the delegates of Iowa, Maine, etc?

69360
03-21-2012, 03:56 PM
That is a good question: When will we know the status of the delegates of Iowa, Maine, etc?

Look them up-

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c

But everything will be clear by the end of June.

sailingaway
03-21-2012, 03:59 PM
Look them up-

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c

But everything will be clear by the end of June.

those are just estimates.

They are probably the best neutral estimates around, but they are not taking into account actual boots on the ground.

JJ2
03-21-2012, 04:12 PM
Can the 5 state rule include support from stealth delegates??

Lafayette
03-21-2012, 04:24 PM
It is a little harder for them since Santorum and Grinch have come out saying they are using the same plan.

Which plan is that? The one where you have true grassroots supporters show up to caucuses and delegate selections around the country, follow the rules and take the majority if not all the delegates? Or the one where party insides disregard their own rules, appoint their own chairmen, ignore votes and points of order, have people arrested, and close down the caucus when things don't go their way?

Blue
03-21-2012, 04:33 PM
Blitzer was born without a backbone and without a brain. Reading his blogs takes you back to third grade reading levels. It's stunning how people like him.

economics102
03-21-2012, 04:54 PM
I think they'll admit it when they can truly paint us as thieves of the election.

So they're going to claim that the Ron Paul campaign has been "quietly stealing delegates under the radar" when both official campaign reps (like Doug Wead) and Paul supporters have been SCREAMING at the MSM to cover the fact that we're the true delegate winner in many states for MONTHS and the MSM has done everything it can to avoid any discussion of that?

Good luck with that.

69360
03-21-2012, 05:09 PM
those are just estimates.

They are probably the best neutral estimates around, but they are not taking into account actual boots on the ground.

The link was to the dates when the conventions take place.

I know the delegate totals msm report are estimates and not favorable to Ron.

69360
03-21-2012, 05:10 PM
Can the 5 state rule include support from stealth delegates??

Sure, a plurality of delegates is a plurality of delegates. That they are unbound and not tied to the popular vote doesn't matter.

You have to understand all this contested convention talk is just wild speculation though.

Endthefednow
03-21-2012, 05:21 PM
I just don`t get it. Will Ron Paul be able to be at the Tampa RNC event or not? without winning any state beauty contests? :confused:

69360
03-21-2012, 05:23 PM
I just don`t get it. Will Ron Paul be able to be at the Tampa RNC event or not? without winning any state beauty contests? :confused:

Yes as a sitting member of congress he is entitled to a pass no matter what happens in the election.

Endthefednow
03-21-2012, 05:32 PM
Ok, thanks 69360:cool:

opinionatedfool
03-21-2012, 06:37 PM
In response to the OP.

Just when I think the stupidity of the MSM won't surprise me again, they surprise me again. I feel bad for all the sheeple who treat what they hear on the news as the gospel truth.

Number19
03-21-2012, 07:59 PM
Does that only apply to the first ballot? If not...then why do we keep hearing about Jeb Bush and Palin stepping and getting the nomination?Here's what I found : "...It's possible that even if Gingrich or Paul's delegates can't vote for their candidate on the first ballot, they could do so on subsequent ballots if Gingrich and/or Paul garners the support of a plurality of delegates from at least five states during the fight on the convention floor. Under Republican National Committee rules, Gingrich or Paul would need to be formally nominated after the first ballot for this to happen, and demonstrate their support in five states when this happens...".

One other thing which hasn't been mentioned is that R.P.'s delegates can abstain from voting on the first ballot.

69360
03-21-2012, 09:01 PM
Here's what I found : "...It's possible that even if Gingrich or Paul's delegates can't vote for their candidate on the first ballot, they could do so on subsequent ballots if Gingrich and/or Paul garners the support of a plurality of delegates from at least five states during the fight on the convention floor. Under Republican National Committee rules, Gingrich or Paul would need to be formally nominated after the first ballot for this to happen, and demonstrate their support in five states when this happens...".

One other thing which hasn't been mentioned is that R.P.'s delegates can abstain from voting on the first ballot.

Problem is if they abstain, they will be removed from the floor and their alternates will be brought in to vote.

JJ2
03-21-2012, 09:14 PM
Sure, a plurality of delegates is a plurality of delegates. That they are unbound and not tied to the popular vote doesn't matter.

You have to understand all this contested convention talk is just wild speculation though.

No, by "stealth delegates" I meant those that are bound to another candidate.

69360
03-21-2012, 09:25 PM
No, by "stealth delegates" I meant those that are bound to another candidate.

Most likely if they don't vote for their bound candidate they are going to be removed from the convention and their alternate will vote for them.

J_White
03-22-2012, 12:33 AM
The MSM wants to spin everything they can !

http://i.imgur.com/L222m.jpg

floridasun1983
03-22-2012, 01:05 AM
The establishment is trying to seal the deal for Romney now, they want no part of an open convention because they are very afraid they will lose control of it. Now they've trotted Jeb out to endorse Romney, and got all the establishment types saying all the predictable babble about "its time to unite around a candidate" and so on and so forth. Will be interesting to see if Santorum and/or Gingrich bow out, I think their buddies in the inner circles will really be pressuring them to bow out.

IDefendThePlatform
03-22-2012, 01:10 AM
So is there a prevote poll that determines who holds pluralities of delegates in all the states? What is the pre convention nominatin process to create this first ballot?

Gingrich might actually get shut out. We need to make sure we are recruiting his (and all) delegates hard during June and July. Maybe personal phone calls from Ron Paul himself would help persuade delegates. If they go to Romney that could put him over the top on the first ballot.

anaconda
03-22-2012, 02:03 AM
But the article refers to the beauty contest results as evidence of "plurality." This is not accurate. Ron Paul has said that he believes they have secured not only "pluralities," but majorities of delegates in multiple states already. And there are many more to go.