PauliticsPolitics
03-20-2012, 02:27 AM
=== Illinois facts ===
This is an open primary.
One must already be registered to vote, but Democrats, Libertarians, and Green Party people can all also vote in the GOP primary.
We will send 69 delegates to the national convention.
54 of those delegates are directly elected today (March 20th)
12 others are chosen at the state convention in June, and there are 3 reserved for GOP insiders.
For now we need to look at the 54 delegates at stake in this primary.
Illinois has 18 congressional districts (some of these districts are freshly drawn after the 2010 census).
If you are bored, you can look at the new CD's here (http://maps.google.com/maps?q=http:%2F%2Filhousedems.com%2Fredistricting% 2F2011-maps%2FSenate_Bill_1178_House_Amendment_2%2Fab9Pla n0549.kmz&hl=en&ll=40.111689,-89.494629&spn=13.099052,19.753418&sll=39.739318,-89.504139&sspn=9.440222,19.753418&t=m&z=6&source=gplus-ogsb).
Each district will elect and send 2-4 national delegates based on GOP population.
These delegates are directly voted for, but there is also a meaningless beauty contest (which the news will report on).
So on the IL ballot, there will first be the beauty contest listing all the candidates.
Then there will be a section to vote for the delegates relevant to the voters Congressional District.
Each delegate-candidate is clearly labeled with their associated presidential candidate.
In most districts, all four candidates have a full delegate-slate, but there are four districts where Santorum did not make it (discussed later).
(Example: District 11 has 3 delegates at stake. There are 12 delegate-candidates listed on the ballot (3 for Paul, 3 for Romney, 3 for Santorum, 3 for Gingrich). Each delegate-candidate is clearly labeled with their associated presidential candidate. The voter in this case is allowed to vote for 3 delegate-candidates. People will vote for (almost always) the 3 delegate candidates which match their presidential candidate. In the end, the 3 delegate-candidates with the most votes become national delegates. The only way a congressional district would be split between two candidates is if A LOT of people split their 3 delegate votes, like they pick 2 Paul delegates and 1 Romney delegate (kind illogical). So effectively, each district is winner take all. This still means that the state will likely be split. Some districts will go for Romney, some for Santorum, and HOPEFULLY a few for Paul.)
So now let's get realistic. Illinois is not (in its totality) Ron Paul country. The rural areas will go heavily Santorum. Chicago is something like 80% Democrats, and the few republicans tend to be safe establishment types for Romney. The affluent suburbs will likely go strongly for Romney.
So where can we maybe get Paul a few delegates?
I do not want to kid anyone, or raise false expectations, but there are a few congressional districts which we have a chance at. The strategy is taking advantage of anomalies.
The new 13th congressional district [3 delegates] (Our best hope?)
This CD gives us a unique opportunity. This has 3 anomalies going for us.
1. Santorum failed to file delegates for this district. While he will appear on the ballot for the beauty contest, there are only delegates for Paul, Romney, and Gingrich. There has been some work to convince the Santorum voters to chose the Paul delegates in order to "Stop Romney" since leaving the section blank will merely ensure a Romney delegate-win (see ad campaign later in post.)
2. This CD has two humongous colleges: Illinois State University (ISU, Bloomington/Normal) and more importantly University of Illinois (UIUC, Champaign/Urbana). UIUC is where Ron drew 5000 people.
3. Congressman Tim Johnson endorsed Ron Paul. Though the districts have been newly redrawn, the 13th district is more-or-less his territory. He is also running in this primary on the same 13th Congressional ballot.
Chicago Congresional Districts: 4th, 5th, & 7th [2, 3, 2 delegates respectively]
These three congressional districts are all clustered together and make up the broader part of Chicago.
1. Again, Santorum does not have delegates on these three district ballots, so the goal has been to convince Santorum voters to pick our delegates.
2. There are very few Republicans in these districts. Turnout is low. With some incredible luck, our passionate Ron Paul voters will come out with Democrats and Independents and hence (along with the Santorum problem) maybe capture one of these.
===ADS===
As I said before, there has been an effort to spread the idea that Santorum voters should chose the Paul delegates in order to prevent Romney from sweeping all the delegates. This effort will also be continued throughout the day outside of polling locations. (If you are in Illinois, this is a valid use of your time today.) In the four target districts (the ones without Santorum delegates on the ballot), it is possible that Santorum or Romney would win the media beauty contest, but Paul could win the delegates if the combined Paul and strategy-minded Santorum voters outnumber the rest. This is not an impossible scenario if Santorum voters are aware-enough of the strategy. Of course, as I said earlier, the target districts also have some anomalies which could give us an advantage.
Among other approaches, I have been running Facebook ads aimed at Santorum voters in the 4 target districts, pushing the idea that they must vote for the Paul delegates to stop Romney since there are no Santorum delegates in their districts. I have updated the ad campaign for the final day, and I would like to push it harder. If contributing to this interests you, please see the chipin at the end of this post.
This is the ad currently running:
http://i39.tinypic.com/33pg22u.jpg
(http://www.facebook.com/IllinoisGrassrootsToStopRomney)This is the new landing page: http://www.facebook.com/IllinoisGrassrootsToStopRomney
(http://www.facebook.com/IllinoisGrassrootsToStopRomney)
I also have a basic GOTV Ron Paul ad running in two configurations. One version is for the target districts, and the ad-bid is more aggressive (more expensive) - but I also have the same ad going state-wide at a more conservative ad-bid. This ad is targeted at Ron Paul and ROn Paul friendly keywords. This is really just meant to remind all the Paul-friendly people that today is the day!
This is the basic GOTV ad:
http://i39.tinypic.com/4hy34h.jpg
(http://www.evoter.com/il/)This ad simply points to the Illinois site to look up the voter's polling place: http://www.evoter.com/il/
(http://www.evoter.com/il/)
(http://www.evoter.com/il/)If you think this is a valid effort, please consider throwing something at my chipin. I have been self-funding this effort for a few weeks, and it is starting to get pretty expensive for me. I would like to take it up a notch for the last day since most people don't pay attention to anything until voting day. If you know how Facebook ads work, you bid per ad event, so the more extra money I have, the more people will be barraged with the ads on voting day (TOADY!).
Here's my chipin link: http://pauliticspolitics.chipin.com/ron-paul-illinois-facebook-ads (http://pauliticspolitics.chipin.com/ron-paul-illinois-facebook-ads)
(PS - You can also help by keeping this bumped. I will be out doing the Paul work a lot of the day, but I will check in as often as possible.)
(PSS - Illinois is going to be one of the hardest yet. Many people think of the election as only Romney vs Santorum nowadays. I know the odds are against us, even for a small district win. But I cannot let my state go with out a fight.)
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."
This is an open primary.
One must already be registered to vote, but Democrats, Libertarians, and Green Party people can all also vote in the GOP primary.
We will send 69 delegates to the national convention.
54 of those delegates are directly elected today (March 20th)
12 others are chosen at the state convention in June, and there are 3 reserved for GOP insiders.
For now we need to look at the 54 delegates at stake in this primary.
Illinois has 18 congressional districts (some of these districts are freshly drawn after the 2010 census).
If you are bored, you can look at the new CD's here (http://maps.google.com/maps?q=http:%2F%2Filhousedems.com%2Fredistricting% 2F2011-maps%2FSenate_Bill_1178_House_Amendment_2%2Fab9Pla n0549.kmz&hl=en&ll=40.111689,-89.494629&spn=13.099052,19.753418&sll=39.739318,-89.504139&sspn=9.440222,19.753418&t=m&z=6&source=gplus-ogsb).
Each district will elect and send 2-4 national delegates based on GOP population.
These delegates are directly voted for, but there is also a meaningless beauty contest (which the news will report on).
So on the IL ballot, there will first be the beauty contest listing all the candidates.
Then there will be a section to vote for the delegates relevant to the voters Congressional District.
Each delegate-candidate is clearly labeled with their associated presidential candidate.
In most districts, all four candidates have a full delegate-slate, but there are four districts where Santorum did not make it (discussed later).
(Example: District 11 has 3 delegates at stake. There are 12 delegate-candidates listed on the ballot (3 for Paul, 3 for Romney, 3 for Santorum, 3 for Gingrich). Each delegate-candidate is clearly labeled with their associated presidential candidate. The voter in this case is allowed to vote for 3 delegate-candidates. People will vote for (almost always) the 3 delegate candidates which match their presidential candidate. In the end, the 3 delegate-candidates with the most votes become national delegates. The only way a congressional district would be split between two candidates is if A LOT of people split their 3 delegate votes, like they pick 2 Paul delegates and 1 Romney delegate (kind illogical). So effectively, each district is winner take all. This still means that the state will likely be split. Some districts will go for Romney, some for Santorum, and HOPEFULLY a few for Paul.)
So now let's get realistic. Illinois is not (in its totality) Ron Paul country. The rural areas will go heavily Santorum. Chicago is something like 80% Democrats, and the few republicans tend to be safe establishment types for Romney. The affluent suburbs will likely go strongly for Romney.
So where can we maybe get Paul a few delegates?
I do not want to kid anyone, or raise false expectations, but there are a few congressional districts which we have a chance at. The strategy is taking advantage of anomalies.
The new 13th congressional district [3 delegates] (Our best hope?)
This CD gives us a unique opportunity. This has 3 anomalies going for us.
1. Santorum failed to file delegates for this district. While he will appear on the ballot for the beauty contest, there are only delegates for Paul, Romney, and Gingrich. There has been some work to convince the Santorum voters to chose the Paul delegates in order to "Stop Romney" since leaving the section blank will merely ensure a Romney delegate-win (see ad campaign later in post.)
2. This CD has two humongous colleges: Illinois State University (ISU, Bloomington/Normal) and more importantly University of Illinois (UIUC, Champaign/Urbana). UIUC is where Ron drew 5000 people.
3. Congressman Tim Johnson endorsed Ron Paul. Though the districts have been newly redrawn, the 13th district is more-or-less his territory. He is also running in this primary on the same 13th Congressional ballot.
Chicago Congresional Districts: 4th, 5th, & 7th [2, 3, 2 delegates respectively]
These three congressional districts are all clustered together and make up the broader part of Chicago.
1. Again, Santorum does not have delegates on these three district ballots, so the goal has been to convince Santorum voters to pick our delegates.
2. There are very few Republicans in these districts. Turnout is low. With some incredible luck, our passionate Ron Paul voters will come out with Democrats and Independents and hence (along with the Santorum problem) maybe capture one of these.
===ADS===
As I said before, there has been an effort to spread the idea that Santorum voters should chose the Paul delegates in order to prevent Romney from sweeping all the delegates. This effort will also be continued throughout the day outside of polling locations. (If you are in Illinois, this is a valid use of your time today.) In the four target districts (the ones without Santorum delegates on the ballot), it is possible that Santorum or Romney would win the media beauty contest, but Paul could win the delegates if the combined Paul and strategy-minded Santorum voters outnumber the rest. This is not an impossible scenario if Santorum voters are aware-enough of the strategy. Of course, as I said earlier, the target districts also have some anomalies which could give us an advantage.
Among other approaches, I have been running Facebook ads aimed at Santorum voters in the 4 target districts, pushing the idea that they must vote for the Paul delegates to stop Romney since there are no Santorum delegates in their districts. I have updated the ad campaign for the final day, and I would like to push it harder. If contributing to this interests you, please see the chipin at the end of this post.
This is the ad currently running:
http://i39.tinypic.com/33pg22u.jpg
(http://www.facebook.com/IllinoisGrassrootsToStopRomney)This is the new landing page: http://www.facebook.com/IllinoisGrassrootsToStopRomney
(http://www.facebook.com/IllinoisGrassrootsToStopRomney)
I also have a basic GOTV Ron Paul ad running in two configurations. One version is for the target districts, and the ad-bid is more aggressive (more expensive) - but I also have the same ad going state-wide at a more conservative ad-bid. This ad is targeted at Ron Paul and ROn Paul friendly keywords. This is really just meant to remind all the Paul-friendly people that today is the day!
This is the basic GOTV ad:
http://i39.tinypic.com/4hy34h.jpg
(http://www.evoter.com/il/)This ad simply points to the Illinois site to look up the voter's polling place: http://www.evoter.com/il/
(http://www.evoter.com/il/)
(http://www.evoter.com/il/)If you think this is a valid effort, please consider throwing something at my chipin. I have been self-funding this effort for a few weeks, and it is starting to get pretty expensive for me. I would like to take it up a notch for the last day since most people don't pay attention to anything until voting day. If you know how Facebook ads work, you bid per ad event, so the more extra money I have, the more people will be barraged with the ads on voting day (TOADY!).
Here's my chipin link: http://pauliticspolitics.chipin.com/ron-paul-illinois-facebook-ads (http://pauliticspolitics.chipin.com/ron-paul-illinois-facebook-ads)
(PS - You can also help by keeping this bumped. I will be out doing the Paul work a lot of the day, but I will check in as often as possible.)
(PSS - Illinois is going to be one of the hardest yet. Many people think of the election as only Romney vs Santorum nowadays. I know the odds are against us, even for a small district win. But I cannot let my state go with out a fight.)
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."