What date does a brokered convention become inevitable?

[robertwerden]

Inevitable date being the number of delegates left compared to the number Romney has is equal to less than 1144.

[Darguth]

That varies WILDLY based on how he does in primaries and caucuses that are still to be held as well as how delegates get allocated in caucus states that are still undergoing their allocation process.

Right now all we can do is keep doing what we're doing, getting delegates that support Dr. Paul elected WHEREVER POSSIBLE while watching closely that Romney keeps winning less than 50% of bound delegates as time goes on. For instance projections from yesterday's elections show he took only 41 of 98 available delegates (42%). That's good for us.

[PaulSoHard]

It will probably come down to what happens in California in my honest opinion.

[newuser123]

Well it looks like Romney's got about 500 now, and there are still about 1300 more available. I imagine he'll probably lock it up after May 9th texas primary, or the June 5th primaries, if not sooner.

[braane]

I would guess after April 24th.

[Monotaur]

I think it depends on when (or if...) Gingrich drops out. Once we start hitting winner take all primaries, Santorum is goig to need all the help he can get to make sure Romney doesn't run away with it. I think if they basically split those contests we'll be looking at a time brokered convention.

NOTE: Don't take this to mean vote for Santorum. Only Gingrich supporters should do that. :-)

[KMX]

How many delegates are left to get?

[BUSHLIED]

It all depends on how well Santorum can do in the remaining States that he is theoretically competitive: IL, ID, LA, AK, SD, NE, WV, PA, KY, WI ....he has to win those States and then pick up delegates proportionally in CA, TX, NM...

I suspect Romney will sweep the Northeast-Mid Atlantic States: NY, CT, DE, MD, DC, & RI and of course UT.

Montana is a toss up, Ron should do well there...

OR, probably Romney.

I think NC could be a battleground if Newt carrys on....

If Romney were to win two or more of these: IL, ID, LA, AK, SD, NE, WV, PA, KY, & WI then I think he could still get the magic number.

[klamath]

As long as Romney is getting over half of all the allocated delegates the chances for a brokered convention are nil. His total delegate count now is more than the combined total of all the other condidates.
If this trend continues he WILL have 1144 by the time all delegates are selected. If his total drops below the comblined total of the other candidate then a brokered convention is a possiblilty.

[Original_Intent]

The date the brokered convention becomes inevitable depends on performance from here on out. Current projections are that the "date of inevitability" will not happen.

[braane]

I think it depends on when (or if...) Gingrich drops out. Once we start hitting winner take all primaries, Santorum is goig to need all the help he can get to make sure Romney doesn't run away with it. I think if they basically split those contests we'll be looking at a time brokered convention.

NOTE: Don't take this to mean vote for Santorum. Only Gingrich supporters should do that. :-)

Most of the winner take all states are by district I think ('a la South Carolina?), only a few aren't. So the delegates are going to continue to be pretty split up... especially since a lot of these contests are going to be close.

[braane]

As long as Romney is getting over half of all the allocated delegates the chances for a brokered convention are nil. His total delegate count now is more than the combined total of all the other condidates.
If this trend continues he WILL have 1144 by the time all delegates are selected. If his total drops below the comblined total of the other candidate then a brokered convention is a possiblilty.

This would assume his delegate count is the 484 (or whatever they have it at). It's actually probably much less than that (as a large portion of the unbounds have been given to him)... closer to 380 than 480.

[SCOTUSman]

Honestly, he could be under 1144 going into the final primary and then pass it in the final primary. The final primary is Utah (Winner Take All). Romney has been polling in the 80s to 90s there. I believe it is 40 delegates. So Romney will get all 40 there.

[gerryb]

Honestly, he could be under 1144 going into the final primary and then pass it in the final primary. The final primary is Utah (Winner Take All). Romney has been polling in the 80s to 90s there. I believe it is 40 delegates. So Romney will get all 40 there.

What is the process that determines who the individuals are who serve as delegates?

[Capp]

Inevitable date being the number of delegates left compared to the number Romney has is equal to less than 1144.


Never. Even on the off chance that were to happen, they can always make deals BEFORE the firs vote. Which is what would happen. (see 1976)

[vechorik]

It will probably come down to what happens in California in my honest opinion.

It comes down to what happens in TAMPA BEFORE the convention even starts.

[braane]

Honestly, he could be under 1144 going into the final primary and then pass it in the final primary. The final primary is Utah (Winner Take All). Romney has been polling in the 80s to 90s there. I believe it is 40 delegates. So Romney will get all 40 there.

If Paul supporters sign up as Romney delegates there, then we can still pick some up (I am assuming that's fair play and all).

If Gingrich drops out, then Romney probably doesn't get anywhere close to 1144. Santorum, on the other hand, could be looking pretty inevitable if he can win Illinois next week (assuming he follows that up with a victory in Louisiana and wins Missouri Saturday). Fortunately, I am not so sure Santorum will ever get near the 1144 number either (even if he does become 'inevitable')... simply because of his delegate situation and the amount of ground he has to make up. Which is why this thing is totally set up for a brokered convention.

[Tonewah]

Should Romney win out, it would be mid-May before having 1144 delegates. However, his 'inevitability' rating could reach 100 before that.

Delegate Strength = (((C1-C2)/O) * (C1/L) * 333)

where:
C1 = Number of delegates the leading candidate has won
C2 = Number of delegates the candidate with the second-highest number of delegates has won
O = Number of delegates that have not been chosen
L = Number of delegates needed to win the nomination

This puts Romney currently at about 25.78 out of 100. Should he win every contest through April 3, he would have near a +/- 85 rating.

April 24th would be when his delegate strength becomes 'inevitable', should he win out.

Of course, this could be the first time the rating is proven wrong if the winner-takes-all states are split between more than 2 candidates.

[digitaldean]

If Newt drops out Romeny will have 0% chance of reaching 1144 before FL. This is because 60% of Newts people will go to Santorum.

[PolicyReader]

Inevitable date being the number of delegates left compared to the number Romney has is equal to less than 1144.

Based on current projections Romney won't secure the nomination until after Utah (the final state) votes. This will hold true of the current trends in the race continue unabated as they have since before Super Tuesday. For Romney to fall short he must have underperformed by ~5% on average.
That being said the projections are based on AP delegate math and are thus overlooking quite a few things. If our confederates in many states like ID, NV, Maine, et al can exceed their popular vote counterparts (which we are currently seeing but won't be secured until done is done) that would also tighten or outright close is window to avoid a brokered convention (Side note: if you know ANYONE in Idaho who supports Dr. Paul get them to become write ins for committeemen and involved in the state delegate process if we hit state convention there with 2/3rd we could literally take all of IDs national delegates from Romney and give them to Paul)

If Romney does badly in CA,or TX, let alone NY (where he's expected to do well) that could put the final nail into him in a single state. Aside from that If collectively the other candidates in the race can shave off delegates in every state he'd fall short by the end.

Any way you slice it however there will be a lot of "ifs" in play because so few of the delegates have actually been assigned.

[floridasun1983]

Depends on what you believe when it comes to delegate counts. I think the media is being overly generous with Romney's delegate counts.

Still, I expect a deal to be cut by the time we get to the convention, avoiding an open convention entirely.

[alucard13mmfmj]

I would like to present a hypothetical.

Let's say Romney is 100ish delegates from 1144... Will we start to vote for Santorum just for the soul purpose of denying Romney of winning??

[jbauer]

Its all about the delgates, but if Romney ends up with lets say 1000, or 144 short. All the other 3 would be behind him, thus not having the negotiating power he has. I'm all about getting delegates but what cookie are they going to give us if we're 3rd or 4th in delegates? Not much.

What makes anyone here think that if we're in 3rd or 4th that even after several votes we end up with enough? As much as I want to, I don't see it in the cards. From what we've seen there is a massive grassroots support for him and we're accumulating delgates, but surley we'll never get to enough to win?

[parocks]

Well it looks like Romney's got about 500 now, and there are still about 1300 more available. I imagine he'll probably lock it up after May 9th texas primary, or the June 5th primaries, if not sooner.

It's all about <1144

[parocks]

I would like to present a hypothetical.

Let's say Romney is 100ish delegates from 1144... Will we start to vote for Santorum just for the soul purpose of denying Romney of winning??

That already started yesterday. Some are a bit ahead of others on this. Working with Gingrich working with Santorum. We can't have anything going on in Tampa unless Romney doesn't clinch.

That's what the delegate strategy has been. We'll likely lose, but you never know. First ballot, Romney 1143. Second ballot, I dunno, Palin / Paul and >1144. You never know.

[gerryb]

As much as I want to, I don't see it in the cards. From what we've seen there is a massive grassroots support for him and we're accumulating delgates, but surley we'll never get to enough to win?

We need 600 or 700 NOBP delegates for the strategy to work.

It's doable, if everyone executes. I've heard good things out of FL, GA, VA and a few other "primary" states about their conventions... We need more of our folks involved, though.

[braane]

That already started yesterday. Some are a bit ahead of others on this. Working with Gingrich working with Santorum. We can't have anything going on in Tampa unless Romney doesn't clinch.

That's what the delegate strategy has been. We'll likely lose, but you never know. First ballot, Romney 1143. Second ballot, I dunno, Palin / Paul and >1144. You never know.

I still don't understand what the concern here is. Santorum is about to back his way into the nomination and people are wanting him to garner more votes? In case someone missed it... Yesterday marked the 3rd consecutive mainland state that Santorum has won. By next Saturday it could be 6 in a row... Not to mention Santorum is now about to get the Gingrich vote, and he already has the Democrat's operation chaos. He has plenty of support behind him, let's not make it look like more than it is. There is such thing as going to far.

Romney is no longer the only competitor in this race. Santorum has become just as likely to win the nomination.

Vote for Paul and Paul delegates. That is what we are here for, right?

[well_met_sir]

Paul is better at "stealing" delegates from Santorum. Paul isn't going to win any states according to the media, and as we move into the winner-take-all states he is going to have more and more trouble getting delegates. If Romney looks like he has anything close a majority, the Santorum delegates are going to unify behind Romney in order to prevent a brokered convention. So the only way that we will end up with a brokered convention is if Santorum is ahead of Romney. That's when Santorum finds out that most of his delegates actually support Paul.

[braane]

Paul is better at "stealing" delegates from Santorum. Paul isn't going to win any states according to the media, and as we move into the winner-take-all states he is going to have more and more trouble getting delegates. If Romney looks like he has anything close a majority, the Santorum delegates are going to unify behind Romney in order to prevent a brokered convention. So the only way that we will end up with a brokered convention is if Santorum is ahead of Romney. That's when Santorum finds out that most of his delegates actually support Paul.

So your logic is that Santorum delegates (who are supposedly ours) will unify behind Romney if he gets 'close'?

I sometimes wonder if whoever first suggested this idea was trying to co-opt us.

[angelatc]

That already started yesterday. Some are a bit ahead of others on this. Working with Gingrich working with Santorum. We can't have anything going on in Tampa unless Romney doesn't clinch.

That's what the delegate strategy has been. We'll likely lose, but you never know. First ballot, Romney 1143. Second ballot, I dunno, Palin / Paul and >1144. You never know.

Interesting. Don't you think some Paul delegates would balk at Palin?

[PolicyReader]

I still don't understand what the concern here is. Santorum is about to back his way into the nomination and people are wanting him to garner more votes? In case someone missed it... Yesterday marked the 3rd consecutive mainland state that Santorum has won. By next Saturday it could be 6 in a row... Not to mention Santorum is now about to get the Gingrich vote, and he already has the Democrat's operation chaos. He has plenty of support behind him, let's not make it look like more than it is. There is such thing as going to far.

Romney is no longer the only competitor in this race. Santorum has become just as likely to win the nomination.

Vote for Paul and Paul delegates. That is what we are here for, right?

Santorum can't win without a brokered convention, mathematically even if you take 10% of Romneys support and give it directly to Santourm, Rick still doesn't accrue the delegates needed to secure without a brokered convention. A 20% swing is huge within elections, and more so once we head into the stronger Romney states. So votes on the ground (non-delegate votes) for Rick or Newt do nothing but help our cause.

[braane]

Santorum can't win without a brokered convention, mathematically even if you take 10% of Romneys support and give it directly to Santourm, Rick still doesn't accrue the delegates needed to secure without a brokered convention. A 20% swing is huge within elections, and more so once we head into the stronger Romney states. So votes on the ground (non-delegate votes) for Rick or Newt do nothing but help our cause.

Mathematically even if you take 10% of Santorum's support and give it to Romney, Santorum is still winning states after Gingrich drops out and Romney is still not getting to 1144. You do realize that the best case scenario is that these two trade states? Which won't be happening when Rick Santorum gets to 50% support. In fact, it will be tougher to argue against a guy who picks off state after state at the clips he will be achieving.

We can produce hypothetical situations all day. The numbers don't lie, Rick Santorum is going to be favored in more states than not if his numbers hold from here on out. If he wins in Illinois next Tuesday it gets that much harder to stop him. With 1300 delegates left, he can still get the nomination if Romney bows out (which if Santorum wins everything from now until after April 3rd could happen).

[parocks]

If Newt drops out Romeny will have 0% chance of reaching 1144 before FL. This is because 60% of Newts people will go to Santorum.

Yeah, but the other 40%. I think it comes down to state by state by state. The more candidates, splitting votes 3 ways is good. And it appears that Newt gets that <1144 is the only shot he really has right now. So he might start to do things like emphasizing his ability to reach across the aisle and sell out to Democrats. Country clubbers on Lake Shore Drive will love that. Instead of being the "anti-Romney" he'll be the anti-Santorum, muscling in on Romney's turf. Not to say he will do this, just that he could. Gingrich can present himself as Mr. Establishment, which is kinda is, and Romney's rich suburb base will be chipped away at. I don't see too many good state any time real soon for Romney. I wouldn't have called Alabama a good state for Santorum. There's a lot of midwest left, and Santorum really should be romping there. Socon farmers. Here's what's coming up - Puerto Rico, Missouri, Illinois, Louisiana, Maryland, DC, Wisconsin. Then after that, April 24.

Missouri, Illinois, Louisiana, Wisconsin all look stronger for Santorum than Romney. Puerto Rico, DC, MD, more Romney. Newt has said he likes MD and LA for him. Fine.
We might want to have robbie rp08orbust do his thing in Madison WI - CD2 or CD4 Milwaukee. That's an open primary.


Illinois has the most delegates, Missouri the 2nd most, Wisconsin the 3rd. 3 of the 4 candidates should all be working for <1144 against Romney. The media likes talking about "momentum". Maryland DC Puerto Rico isn't much momentum compared to Ill, Wis, Mo, La. And we'll be going to Tampa if <1144. There really aren't a lot of opportunities for us to get too many votes, too many more delegates from new voting. Slugging it out at state conventions. Build coalitions with Santorum supporters.

We need 1144 to win in Tampa. And we're not going to be able to pick all 1144 of those people, we're going to have to persuade them. We could focus on a uni in a CD in Illinois, or Wisconsin. maybe pick up those delegates. april 24 is mid atlantic. that's pa ny ct ri de - mostly romney "oh he has momentum now". When it really just comes down to what kind of state it is. Romney seems like he'll do pretty well within 10 or 20 miles of I95.

There are more proportional states coming than what people think. And a lot of the "winner take alls" are also winner take all by CD. Giingrich might help in a proportional state. NY is winner take all by CD, and statewide proportional. Romney isn't going to completely crush it. Romney will do very well on Long Island and Westchester. But Santorum should win quite a few CDs upstate. Could we win some NYC CDs or one? CT should be for Romney. He'll certainly win the Greenwich, Darien CD. There might be a CD for Romney.

[PolicyReader]

Mathematically even if you take 10% of Santorum's support and give it to Romney, Santorum is still winning states after Gingrich drops out and Romney is still not getting to 1144. You do realize that the best case scenario is that these two trade states? Which won't be happening when Rick Santorum gets to 50% support. In fact, it will be tougher to argue against a guy who picks off state after state at the clips he will be achieving.

We can produce hypothetical situations all day. The numbers don't lie, Rick Santorum is going to be favored in more states than not if his numbers hold from here on out. If he wins in Illinois next Tuesday it gets that much harder to stop him. With 1300 delegates left, he can still get the nomination if Romney bows out (which if Santorum wins everything from now until after April 3rd could happen).

I'm not just throwing words around and the projection isn't mine it's from Nate Silver at 538 (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/09/how-daunting-is-santorums-delegate-math/)

Current election trends have Santroum winning in the south and Romney pulling most of the north (speaking in broad strokes). When you take the demographics of the race thus far on a county by county level and apply them as a context for the upcoming states Romney secures the nomination only after the final state votes.
Santorum on the other hand doesn't secure the nomination even if you take 10% of Romneys projected vote and give it directly to Santorum.

The the point then is that for Paul to win we need a brokered convention and for that to happen Romney needs to lose more often and/or by larger margins than he has done in the race thus far (specifically he needs to preform poorly in the north and/or the large states like TX, CA, and NY. NY is a great case because it's both big and northern thus a loss there could take Romney under the threshold all on it's own).

I've linked my source and provided a bit of analysis (I'll be happy to add more if you'd like, I still haven't touched on things like MN, CO, NV, etc)
What links do you have? What are your data sources? What's the analysis describing how the situation you describe applies to the delegate math of the race as it is/has been. ?

[klamath]

Mathematically even if you take 10% of Santorum's support and give it to Romney, Santorum is still winning states after Gingrich drops out and Romney is still not getting to 1144. You do realize that the best case scenario is that these two trade states? Which won't be happening when Rick Santorum gets to 50% support. In fact, it will be tougher to argue against a guy who picks off state after state at the clips he will be achieving.

We can produce hypothetical situations all day. The numbers don't lie, Rick Santorum is going to be favored in more states than not if his numbers hold from here on out. If he wins in Illinois next Tuesday it gets that much harder to stop him. With 1300 delegates left, he can still get the nomination if Romney bows out (which if Santorum wins everything from now until after April 3rd could happen).
Not going to happen. Santorum always loses population centers even now. He doesn't have a chance in CA, NY which he would absolutely need to win.

[parocks]

Mathematically even if you take 10% of Santorum's support and give it to Romney, Santorum is still winning states after Gingrich drops out and Romney is still not getting to 1144. You do realize that the best case scenario is that these two trade states? Which won't be happening when Rick Santorum gets to 50% support. In fact, it will be tougher to argue against a guy who picks off state after state at the clips he will be achieving.

We can produce hypothetical situations all day. The numbers don't lie, Rick Santorum is going to be favored in more states than not if his numbers hold from here on out. If he wins in Illinois next Tuesday it gets that much harder to stop him. With 1300 delegates left, he can still get the nomination if Romney bows out (which if Santorum wins everything from now until after April 3rd could happen).

Oh I seriously doubt Romney is dropping out. There aren't as many winner take all states as we think. Santorum will be looking good after April 3, but DC and North Charles St / Towson, the DC burbs doesn't seem like Santorum country. We could take a stab at College Park. But that's a winner take all by cd and overall. Santorum will win out by Hagerstown, maybe the eastern shore. But not Balt and the DC burbs. And DC - winner take all 20 delegates is probably Romney. So Romney won't be dropping out after April 3. He knows there are 5 mid atlantic states that he'll do quite ok in. But Santorum should win the midwest. Romney will pick up some CDs though in Wis, Ill.

[PolicyReader]

There are more proportional states coming than what people think. And a lot of the "winner take alls" are also winner take all by CD. Giingrich might help in a proportional state. NY is winner take all by CD, and statewide proportional. Romney isn't going to completely crush it. Romney will do very well on Long Island and Westchester. But Santorum should win quite a few CDs upstate. Could we win some NYC CDs or one? CT should be for Romney. He'll certainly win the Greenwich, Darien CD. There might be a CD for Romney.

^This is highly accurate. There are only 4 states that are actually winner take all in the upcoming races, the rest or proportional or proportional by CD.

[gerryb]

and as we move into the winner-take-all states he is going to have more and more trouble getting delegates.

Why do you think this?

FL, GA, VA etc. were winner take all(at the congressional district level, at the least) -- and we are winning there....

[PaulConventionWV]

As long as Romney is getting over half of all the allocated delegates the chances for a brokered convention are nil. His total delegate count now is more than the combined total of all the other condidates.
If this trend continues he WILL have 1144 by the time all delegates are selected. If his total drops below the comblined total of the other candidate then a brokered convention is a possiblilty.

You don't know his total delegate count. You won't find out until the first round of voting at the RNC. Stop acting like you do know.

[PolicyReader]

Again, based on the numbers of Silver (which is the most favorable Romney projection I could find from a reasonably professional source) if present trends continue & if the AP news projections are accurate then Romney will secure the nomination but only after the votes from Utah (the final state) are included.
Should any of those things fail to happen we will face a brokered convention.

[klamath]

AR and LA are not sure bets for santoum. Take a look at the west side of MS. It is almost solid romney counties.

[PaulConventionWV]

Its all about the delgates, but if Romney ends up with lets say 1000, or 144 short. All the other 3 would be behind him, thus not having the negotiating power he has. I'm all about getting delegates but what cookie are they going to give us if we're 3rd or 4th in delegates? Not much.

What makes anyone here think that if we're in 3rd or 4th that even after several votes we end up with enough? As much as I want to, I don't see it in the cards. From what we've seen there is a massive grassroots support for him and we're accumulating delgates, but surley we'll never get to enough to win?

As said, it's all about <1,144. Anything can happen if there is a brokered convention. We are getting far more than you think, so we could end up 2nd or a close third in delegate count coming into the convention. If it is a brokered convention, that means we would probably have way more coming out than going in (hopefully).

[klamath]

You don't know his total delegate count. You won't find out until the first round of voting at the RNC. Stop acting like you do know.
Nobody knows but they are good estimates. Stop posting in this thread if you don't want to participate in speculation as that is what this thread is about. 95% of everything postedon RPF's is speculation anyway.

[parocks]

Not going to happen. Santorum always loses population centers even now. He doesn't have a chance in CA, NY which he would absolutely need to win.

Yeah. NY is proportional at large and winner take all by CD. So, Romney wins Scarsdale and Oyster Bay Cove and the Hamptons, the Upper East Side. We could possibly pick off something, maybe? We do have a really good group there, large, smart, so maybe. But Santorum wins upstate. So Romney wins more CDs in NY than Santorum, but proportional, well, Gingrich would help there and so would we <1144.

CA is an open primary. Winner take all by CD. Santorum will win some and Romney will win some. There are 10 winner take all at large.

[klamath]

Yeah. NY is proportional at large and winner take all by CD. So, Romney wins Scarsdale and Oyster Bay Cove and the Hamptons, the Upper East Side. We could possibly pick off something, maybe? We do have a really good group there, large, smart, so maybe. But Santorum wins upstate. So Romney wins more CDs in NY than Santorum, but proportional, well, Gingrich would help there and so would we <1144.

CA is an open primary. Winner take all by CD. Santorum will win some and Romney will win some. There are 10 winner take all at large.
I see santorum possible picking up some ot the central valley CD's in CA as they kind of match the counties he has been winning but when you add the bay area and LA and SD for Romney it pretty much becomes a Romney state.

[sailingaway]

I see santorum possible picking up some ot the central valley CD's in CA as they kind of match the counties he has been winning but when you add the bay area and LA and SD for Romney it pretty much becomes a Romney state.

Lol!

A lot of the central valley CDs are as much Mosques as churches now, when I drive through. I wonder if that will change things.

[klamath]

Lol!

A lot of the central valley CDs are as much Mosques as churches now, when I drive through. I wonder if that will change things.yeaw but they probably ain't voting republican:D

[braane]

I'm not just throwing words around and the projection isn't mine it's from Nate Silver at 538 (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/09/how-daunting-is-santorums-delegate-math/)

Current election trends have Santroum winning in the south and Romney pulling most of the north (speaking in broad strokes). When you take the demographics of the race thus far on a county by county level and apply them as a context for the upcoming states Romney secures the nomination only after the final state votes.
Santorum on the other hand doesn't secure the nomination even if you take 10% of Romneys projected vote and give it directly to Santorum.

The the point then is that for Paul to win we need a brokered convention and for that to happen Romney needs to lose more often and/or by larger margins than he has done in the race thus far (specifically he needs to preform poorly in the north and/or the large states like TX, CA, and NY. NY is a great case because it's both big and northern thus a loss there could take Romney under the threshold all on it's own).

I've linked my source and provided a bit of analysis (I'll be happy to add more if you'd like, I still haven't touched on things like MN, CO, NV, etc)
What links do you have? What are your data sources? What's the analysis describing how the situation you describe applies to the delegate math of the race as it is/has been. ?

It isn't always about numbers. Numerically, yes, Santorum can do it. Would it be next to crazy? Yes.

Firstly, I am not going to read Nate Silver's blog. So I am not going to reference it in any way.

Delegate breakdown 2012:

Superdelegates: 117 (these are instrumental in Santorum's 'path')
Delegates: 2169 (Which I believe leaves 2169 delegates)

For argument sake, and I don't know the exact numbers but they are much lower, we will give Romney the 484 the media has him at and the 239 Santorum is at. Fox News most recent poll, before yesterday had Romney at 38 and Santorum at 32 with Gingrich at 13. We will give Santorum a +3 bump for his wins yesterday and Romney a -3 drop. That makes our national estimate Santorum 35, Romney 35. When Gingrich drops out, which I believe he will... and I will get there, Santorum will get 8% of his support, 4% of his support goes to Romney or remains undecided while 1% goes to Paul. Yes I know, it's a Fox News poll... but honestly Romney's rcp average is a bit worse than this poll anyways (so I am overestimating him). Now the polls are Santorum 43, Romney 39 (maybe).


Then we simply fill in the map in respectable portions. I will keep Gingrich in the delegate math until after Louisiana, where I anticipate he will drop out after a Santorum win (who is leading there in the most recent poll).

Here we go... (all delegate allegation will be proportional to preference poll, unless the state is a true winner take all)

Missouri: Romney-502 Santorum-262 (Santorum wins)
Puerto Rico: Romney-525 (no momentum change)
Illinois: Romney- 553 Santorum-290 (Santorum wins again)
Louisiana: Romney- 566 Santorum-308 (Santorum wins again)

It is at this point that the tide turns. Gingrich drops out. Most of these states haven't been polled, and so I will guess both geographically and on momentum.

D.C: Romney 585
Maryland: Romney 602 Santorum- 335
Wisconsin: Romney 617 Santorum- 355
Connecticut: Romney 630 Santorum-364
Rhode Island: Romney 638 Snatorum-371
New York: Romney-709 Santorum-413
Pennsylvania: Santorum- 485

It is here where Santorum runs up the victories in Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Nebraska, Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Oregon (where he pulls the upset after a string of victories).

Please tell me how even Romney can overcome losing 8 consecutive states this late in the running? Sure, they are virtually tied in delegates after that impressive run. Sure, Santorum doesn't get the delegate victory... but mentally, without our help, Santorum gets here. With our help, assuming we can give him 6 or 7%... the whole scenario changes. Suddenly he wins in New York, and he keeps pace in California. Speaking of California, does Romney even have anything left there after this beating? Does Santorum continue on after Texas with wins in Montana, South Dakota, and New Mexico (which I think he would)? Does he suddenly become competitive in New Jersey? What does Romney have left? Utah.

Romney is running on victories in New York, D.C, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Puerto Rico (from now until June 5th). That pales in comparison to what Santorum did in this scenario.

Now imagine what these numbers could look like with our support. It isn't needed. Without our support a brokered convention seems inevitable. Let's not swing this thing in Santorum's favor. Toss on 100 superdelegates to Santorum's delegate total and he easily passes Romney.

[Vet_from_cali]

If you want a brokered convention, just hope and pray santorum comes out on top the next few weeks.

It isn't likely we will have a brokered convention, but it wasn't likely santorum of all people would make it this far with these kind of results.

[PaulConventionWV]

Nobody knows but they are good estimates. Stop posting in this thread if you don't want to participate in speculation as that is what this thread is about. 95% of everything postedon RPF's is speculation anyway.

No, they are not good estimates. You don't know, period. Nothing is even close to determined for a vast majority of the delegate allocation. The media's estimates are more like guesses. I am speculating that many in this thread don't know what they're talking about.

[parocks]

^This is highly accurate. There are only 4 states that are actually winner take all in the upcoming races, the rest or proportional or proportional by CD.

I'm looking at this. Pretty useful. Hopefully true. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012

I worry a bit about thing like New Jersey winner take all. That's almost certainly Romney. He has a handful of favorable winner take alls. not massive, but medium states. 20 DC. 50 NJ 23 PR 17 DE. (That's probably 110 for Romney, 0 others) But those are spread out time wise.

May is almost ALL fully proportional. That's where Gingrich would help. North Carolina, West Virginia, Oregon, Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas (also Indiana). None of those are Romney wins (maybe Oregon), and we could get some delegates out of Kentucky and Texas, right? That's 400 delegates out of those 7 states. Santorum gets the most, we get some, Gingrich is probably looking forward to that stretch, and Romney will get some too. But we are talking about a whole month without wins for Romney. He'll fall somewhere between 50-100 delegates behind where he would need to be (he'd get maybe 100 or so delegates maybe a few more).

[tbone717]

Brokered convention or not, unless Paul has 1144 supporters in those seats at Tampa, he will not get the nomination.

[parocks]

I see santorum possible picking up some ot the central valley CD's in CA as they kind of match the counties he has been winning but when you add the bay area and LA and SD for Romney it pretty much becomes a Romney state.

Yeah. But most of the delegates are winner take all by CD. Romney will likely get more than Santorum. And we should try to get some too. There's gotta be one ideal CD in LA and one in SF.

[tbone717]

Yeah. But most of the delegates are winner take all by CD. Romney will likely get more than Santorum. And we should try to get some too. There's gotta be one ideal CD in LA and one in SF.

CD-46 and and CD-4 seem to be the ones that vote for the most libertarian-leaning Congressmen.

[Demigod]

The date when the first one could not reach the required number of delegates even if wining 100% of all remaining primaries.

[parocks]

It isn't always about numbers. Numerically, yes, Santorum can do it. Would it be next to crazy? Yes.

Firstly, I am not going to read Nate Silver's blog. So I am not going to reference it in any way.

Delegate breakdown 2012:

Superdelegates: 117 (these are instrumental in Santorum's 'path')
Delegates: 2169 (Which I believe leaves 2169 delegates)

For argument sake, and I don't know the exact numbers but they are much lower, we will give Romney the 484 the media has him at and the 239 Santorum is at. Fox News most recent poll, before yesterday had Romney at 38 and Santorum at 32 with Gingrich at 13. We will give Santorum a +3 bump for his wins yesterday and Romney a -3 drop. That makes our national estimate Santorum 35, Romney 35. When Gingrich drops out, which I believe he will... and I will get there, Santorum will get 8% of his support, 4% of his support goes to Romney or remains undecided while 1% goes to Paul. Yes I know, it's a Fox News poll... but honestly Romney's rcp average is a bit worse than this poll anyways (so I am overestimating him). Now the polls are Santorum 43, Romney 39 (maybe).


Then we simply fill in the map in respectable portions. I will keep Gingrich in the delegate math until after Louisiana, where I anticipate he will drop out after a Santorum win (who is leading there in the most recent poll).

Here we go... (all delegate allegation will be proportional to preference poll, unless the state is a true winner take all)

Missouri: Romney-502 Santorum-262 (Santorum wins)
Puerto Rico: Romney-525 (no momentum change)
Illinois: Romney- 553 Santorum-290 (Santorum wins again)
Louisiana: Romney- 566 Santorum-308 (Santorum wins again)

It is at this point that the tide turns. Gingrich drops out. Most of these states haven't been polled, and so I will guess both geographically and on momentum.

D.C: Romney 585
Maryland: Romney 602 Santorum- 335
Wisconsin: Romney 617 Santorum- 355
Connecticut: Romney 630 Santorum-364
Rhode Island: Romney 638 Snatorum-371
New York: Romney-709 Santorum-413
Pennsylvania: Santorum- 485

It is here where Santorum runs up the victories in Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Nebraska, Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Oregon (where he pulls the upset after a string of victories).

Please tell me how even Romney can overcome losing 8 consecutive states this late in the running? Sure, they are virtually tied in delegates after that impressive run. Sure, Santorum doesn't get the delegate victory... but mentally, without our help, Santorum gets here. With our help, assuming we can give him 6 or 7%... the whole scenario changes. Suddenly he wins in New York, and he keeps pace in California. Speaking of California, does Romney even have anything left there after this beating? Does Santorum continue on after Texas with wins in Montana, South Dakota, and New Mexico (which I think he would)? Does he suddenly become competitive in New Jersey? What does Romney have left? Utah.

Romney is running on victories in New York, D.C, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Puerto Rico (from now until June 5th). That pales in comparison to what Santorum did in this scenario.

Now imagine what these numbers could look like with our support. It isn't needed. Without our support a brokered convention seems inevitable. Let's not swing this thing in Santorum's favor. Toss on 100 superdelegates to Santorum's delegate total and he easily passes Romney.

Don't count your chickens before they're hatched. - Romney isn't significantly off track for 1144. The media doesn't want Santorum, it does want Romney. Gingrich seems to understand the <1144 and I think he can go back to 2011, before his surge, and just pick his spots without spending a lot of money. May is all proportional. He's hoping for something like we're hoping for something. He already is talking about preventing Romney. Sure he could drop out, but could also not. "Momentum" is overrated. Hasn't meant much this year. I'm not sure that making precise guesses about numbers is going to be right. Working to <1144 is trying to prevent the real present threat. And you forgot delaware 17 winner take all Romney

[parocks]

Brokered convention or not, unless Paul has 1144 supporters in those seats at Tampa, he will not get the nomination.

Probably so. But there's still a chance, because we have no idea what's going to happen between now and then. But there a 10 easy reasons to say that no way no how will we be able to get a single additional delegate. But you pick the best plan. One theory is that we try to help Santorum and Gingrich. Santorum won't get the nom and maybe the Santorum people will appreciate that we helped. It's possible, all this is possible, but unlikely. It just seems better to focus on the task of getting 1144 votes in Tampa, some from people we didn't pick. Because that's what's the goal is right now. First, <1144, then 1144 in Tampa. This strategy also has an interesting summer in it. And we could get something. I think Palin / Paul is plausible. I think that Santorum has very few delegates that would prefer Santorum to Palin. Also Gingrich. I think Palin / Paul would work as a ticket. Palin has gaps where Ron Paul's ideas would fill in. Ron Paul creates the policy (or has a big hand in creating it) and Palin sells it. If it was Romney / Rand, Rand would basically not be doing too much. It's great for the resume, yes, and I'm in favor, but Palin / Paul does seem like a good tic, but most here would disagree probably.

[tbone717]

Probably so. But there's still a chance, because we have no idea what's going to happen between now and then. But there a 10 easy reasons to say that no way no how will we be able to get a single additional delegate. But you pick the best plan. One theory is that we try to help Santorum and Gingrich. Santorum won't get the nom and maybe the Santorum people will appreciate that we helped. It's possible, all this is possible, but unlikely. It just seems better to focus on the task of getting 1144 votes in Tampa, some from people we didn't pick. Because that's what's the goal is right now. First, <1144, then 1144 in Tampa. This strategy also has an interesting summer in it. And we could get something. I think Palin / Paul is plausible. I think that Santorum has very few delegates that would prefer Santorum to Palin. Also Gingrich. I think Palin / Paul would work as a ticket. Palin has gaps where Ron Paul's ideas would fill in. Ron Paul creates the policy (or has a big hand in creating it) and Palin sells it. If it was Romney / Rand, Rand would basically not be doing too much. It's great for the resume, yes, and I'm in favor, but Palin / Paul does seem like a good tic, but most here would disagree probably.

Yes I agree with your analysis. Personally, I think the best thing for the libertarian Republican wing is to be able to influence the platform and have influence on the VP selection. If Paul is able to get himself a few hundred delegates on the floor then I can see this occurring.

[craezie]

I live in California and I am concerned that we may give it to Romney. There are very few people who are going to go for social conservative/ religious nutjob (and I say this as an evangelical Christian) Santorum. That kind of thing just doesn't fly here. Unless Ron Paul can make some inroads and win some districts, we are royally screwed.

My fear is that the media will call it early, using the false delegate numbers off of the straw votes, rather than the real ones. In that case, people will stop caring and Romney will landslide in California, and which point it will actually be won.

[klamath]

Yeah. But most of the delegates are winner take all by CD. Romney will likely get more than Santorum. And we should try to get some too. There's gotta be one ideal CD in LA and one in SF.
CD's 1 and 2 are some of RP's best chances. The state of Jefferson. He didn't win last time in CD 2 or I would have been in st paul at the convention.

[joshnorris14]

We need 600 or 700 NOBP delegates for the strategy to work.

It's doable, if everyone executes. I've heard good things out of FL, GA, VA and a few other "primary" states about their conventions... We need more of our folks involved, though.

You've assuredly heard wrong, because in Florida, delegates aren't chosen by convention.

[Capp]

I'm looking at this. Pretty useful. Hopefully true. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012

I worry a bit about thing like New Jersey winner take all. That's almost certainly Romney. He has a handful of favorable winner take alls. not massive, but medium states. 20 DC. 50 NJ 23 PR 17 DE. (That's probably 110 for Romney, 0 others) But those are spread out time wise.

May is almost ALL fully proportional. That's where Gingrich would help. North Carolina, West Virginia, Oregon, Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas (also Indiana). None of those are Romney wins (maybe Oregon), and we could get some delegates out of Kentucky and Texas, right? That's 400 delegates out of those 7 states. Santorum gets the most, we get some, Gingrich is probably looking forward to that stretch, and Romney will get some too. But we are talking about a whole month without wins for Romney. He'll fall somewhere between 50-100 delegates behind where he would need to be (he'd get maybe 100 or so delegates maybe a few more).


You are assuming A LOT about Romney getting no wins in there. He has been polling in front in Texas and North Carolina already. And with April being an extremely positive Romney month, the momentum may carry him to some of those states. Some of which aren't the sure losses you think they are even if they took place NOW.

The biggest advantage Romney has is that NONE of the states he will definitely lose are winner take all, which several of his positive states are. And some of the others that aren't he could make them winner take all with even just a slightly better than expected showing. I mean, look at last night. Romney lost the two bigger states..not even coming in second in either...yet still walked away from the night with the most delegates due to just one winner take all territory and a decent win in Hawaii.

When you factor in the huge percentage of delegates he will get in NY and California (WAY more than half) and then those winner take all wins he will get, plus whatever he gets inthe remaining northeast proportional states, he will need only like 30% or so of the delegates in his losses. Which is more than doable.


And again...do you really think if Romney winds up with 1125 delegates that the GP will allow he convention to go brokered? I still think the only reason why Gingrich would be SO stubborn as to not drop out now is to have some bargaining power with Romney.

The only really decent way of keeping him from winning would be teaming up against him but that would be almost impossible to coordinate. If you suddenly tried to get Ron Paul supporters to vote for Santorum, most will never get the message.

[Capp]

It isn't always about numbers. Numerically, yes, Santorum can do it. Would it be next to crazy? Yes.

Firstly, I am not going to read Nate Silver's blog. So I am not going to reference it in any way.

Delegate breakdown 2012:

Superdelegates: 117 (these are instrumental in Santorum's 'path')
Delegates: 2169 (Which I believe leaves 2169 delegates)

For argument sake, and I don't know the exact numbers but they are much lower, we will give Romney the 484 the media has him at and the 239 Santorum is at. Fox News most recent poll, before yesterday had Romney at 38 and Santorum at 32 with Gingrich at 13. We will give Santorum a +3 bump for his wins yesterday and Romney a -3 drop. That makes our national estimate Santorum 35, Romney 35. When Gingrich drops out, which I believe he will... and I will get there, Santorum will get 8% of his support, 4% of his support goes to Romney or remains undecided while 1% goes to Paul. Yes I know, it's a Fox News poll... but honestly Romney's rcp average is a bit worse than this poll anyways (so I am overestimating him). Now the polls are Santorum 43, Romney 39 (maybe).


Then we simply fill in the map in respectable portions. I will keep Gingrich in the delegate math until after Louisiana, where I anticipate he will drop out after a Santorum win (who is leading there in the most recent poll).

Here we go... (all delegate allegation will be proportional to preference poll, unless the state is a true winner take all)

Missouri: Romney-502 Santorum-262 (Santorum wins)
Puerto Rico: Romney-525 (no momentum change)
Illinois: Romney- 553 Santorum-290 (Santorum wins again)
Louisiana: Romney- 566 Santorum-308 (Santorum wins again)

It is at this point that the tide turns. Gingrich drops out. Most of these states haven't been polled, and so I will guess both geographically and on momentum.

D.C: Romney 585
Maryland: Romney 602 Santorum- 335
Wisconsin: Romney 617 Santorum- 355
Connecticut: Romney 630 Santorum-364
Rhode Island: Romney 638 Snatorum-371
New York: Romney-709 Santorum-413
Pennsylvania: Santorum- 485

It is here where Santorum runs up the victories in Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Nebraska, Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Oregon (where he pulls the upset after a string of victories).

Please tell me how even Romney can overcome losing 8 consecutive states this late in the running? Sure, they are virtually tied in delegates after that impressive run. Sure, Santorum doesn't get the delegate victory... but mentally, without our help, Santorum gets here. With our help, assuming we can give him 6 or 7%... the whole scenario changes. Suddenly he wins in New York, and he keeps pace in California. Speaking of California, does Romney even have anything left there after this beating? Does Santorum continue on after Texas with wins in Montana, South Dakota, and New Mexico (which I think he would)? Does he suddenly become competitive in New Jersey? What does Romney have left? Utah.

Romney is running on victories in New York, D.C, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Puerto Rico (from now until June 5th). That pales in comparison to what Santorum did in this scenario.

Now imagine what these numbers could look like with our support. It isn't needed. Without our support a brokered convention seems inevitable. Let's not swing this thing in Santorum's favor. Toss on 100 superdelegates to Santorum's delegate total and he easily passes Romney.


This is a MAJOR problem with some people on this site...out of what they WANT to happen, you are just pulling numbers straight out of your ass, and then using those ass numbers as PROOF of your estimates. You have no justification other than your hopes that Romney will lose 3 points and Santorum will gain three points after last night. (Especially since Romney WON the most delegates last night.)

ot to mention...you are then taking this best case scenario for the polls, and applying them the rest of the way, as if they won't shift back toward Romney (as they have always done so far) as soon as he wins Puerto Rico's winner take all, and then a big win in Illinois...not to mention the full slate of Northeast states coming up next month. By this time next week...any Santorum gain this week (if there even IS any) will be wiped out. And if not, after NY, when Romney will have won virtually EVERY primary for over a month...many with HUGE delegate gains...as opposed to last night when Santorum won the two big states yet still lost ground on Romney) and by the time that string where you CLAIM Romney will lose them all, he will be polling MUCH higher.

To many people seem to think that just throwing out random numbers suddenly makes you expert analysts.

Sorry..but the fact that you think there is ANY way that Santorum would win NY and California..even if 100% of Ron Paul voters voted for him, shows that you should never be analyzing the upcoming primaries. Either you have never BEEN to NY (where I live...and no...Santorum has ZERO chance of winning...even if Mitt Romney were to campaign in a Red Sox cap and Tom Brady jersey) or you are letting your wishes cloud your judgment.

[thoughtomator]

we'll wait and find out when it all happens

it appears that this year many delegates for X are not actually going to behave like delegates for X and that means it's anybody's guess how it all goes down in the end.

[PolicyReader]

I'm looking at this. Pretty useful. Hopefully true. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012

I worry a bit about thing like New Jersey winner take all. That's almost certainly Romney. He has a handful of favorable winner take alls. not massive, but medium states. 20 DC. 50 NJ 23 PR 17 DE. (That's probably 110 for Romney, 0 others) But those are spread out time wise.

May is almost ALL fully proportional. That's where Gingrich would help. North Carolina, West Virginia, Oregon, Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas (also Indiana). None of those are Romney wins (maybe Oregon), and we could get some delegates out of Kentucky and Texas, right? That's 400 delegates out of those 7 states. Santorum gets the most, we get some, Gingrich is probably looking forward to that stretch, and Romney will get some too. But we are talking about a whole month without wins for Romney. He'll fall somewhere between 50-100 delegates behind where he would need to be (he'd get maybe 100 or so delegates maybe a few more).


Don't count your chickens before they're hatched. - Romney isn't significantly off track for 1144. The media doesn't want Santorum, it does want Romney. Gingrich seems to understand the <1144 and I think he can go back to 2011, before his surge, and just pick his spots without spending a lot of money. May is all proportional. He's hoping for something like we're hoping for something. He already is talking about preventing Romney. Sure he could drop out, but could also not. "Momentum" is overrated. Hasn't meant much this year. I'm not sure that making precise guesses about numbers is going to be right. Working to <1144 is trying to prevent the real present threat. And you forgot delaware 17 winner take all Romney

Honestly tho many are expecting him gone I think there's a very real chance Gingrich stays in. He knows the system and the game so he understands how much of the math says it's not actually over yet. He has some insider friends which could work to his advantage, and he's got ego. I don't underestimate his ego, he's taking the race with Romney personally and ever since the early arc where Romneys PAC went after him Newt has had a personal ax to grind.

All my prior considerations are predicated on the idea that Newt drops (even tho I don't think per se that he will, it was just easier because it's what the published annalists were doing :p ).
If Newt stays in I think it may win Romney some more CDs in his stronger states but it seems even more likely that it will cost him delegates in states like TX (and perhaps CA as well) so roughly speaking I think Newt in is likely a net gain.
All in all it seems to me that your above is pretty on track, to get a deeper read I'd need to go deeper into the demographics of the states upcoming.
If Newt has been keeping an eye on his strongest areas and starts focusing exclusively on those he could have an even bigger likelihood of an impact but I haven't looked at what those are so I've no clue what that would result in delegate wise (tho I don't see it helping Romney or Santorum in any case)

[PauliticsPolitics]

What might also be interesting is if it appears that Romney has the 1144 in MSM calculations, so he is the presumed nominee but then the first vote at the convention reveals something different.

[PolicyReader]

What might also be interesting is if it appears that Romney has the 1144 in MSM calculations, so he is the presumed nominee but then the first vote at the convention reveals something different.
You mean if things like this (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?367293-Romney-steps-up-Illinois-primary-campaign-looking-to-halt-Santorum%E2%80%99s-momentum) keep happening ;)

[acptulsa]

I would like to present a hypothetical.

Let's say Romney is 100ish delegates from 1144... Will we start to vote for Santorum just for the soul purpose of denying Romney of winning??

No, absolutely not. In proportional states, it doesn't matter where the votes go so long as they don't go to Romney. Therefore, the best thing we can do is keep voting for our man. Strategic voting will not help us except in winner-take-all states.

[acptulsa]

No, they are not good estimates. You don't know, period. Nothing is even close to determined for a vast majority of the delegate allocation. The media's estimates are more like guesses. I am speculating that many in this thread don't know what they're talking about.

Who does? I mean seriously. What percentage of the delegates are coming from proportional states this year? When did that ever happen before? Like, never?

Whose guess is any better than anyone else's when we're charting uncharted waters?

[CTRattlesnake]

People are forgetting that nearly every state is proportional. NJ, UT, and a few others are winner take all, but besides that, all of them, including CA, TX, and NY are proportional.

This means that even though Mitt may win in Maryland or New York, Santorum, or even Paul, could leech off some delegates and slow his pace down.

Of course, the same thing goes for the unfriendly states for mitt as well.

[acptulsa]

And again...do you really think if Romney winds up with 1125 delegates that the GP will allow he convention to go brokered? I still think the only reason why Gingrich would be SO stubborn as to not drop out now is to have some bargaining power with Romney.

Um, you do realize, do you not, that Gingrich can only suggest who his delegates vote for if he drops out and unbinds them? And you do realize, do you not, that the G.O.P. must follow their own rules and follow state laws or they will expose themselves as a machine to the whole world?

The problem with some of the people around here is not all of us have weaned ourselves from the MSM pablum.

[MozoVote]

Romney may have won a "pollster" poll, but he has been losing straw polls badly to Santorum at the GOP county conventions.

I expect NC to go like Tennessee and Alabama. Romney will win some urban areas in the primary with the participation of independents ... but that's it. The core GOP in the rural areas will not warm up to him.

[PolicyReader]

Have you ever noticed how if you say "Mitt Romney" a few times in a row it starts to sound just like "un electable" ? :toady:

[J_White]

i feel that Newt is staying around to garner enough delegates, so that he can give those to Romney, in return for VP, Sec of State, or a new intern !!
by current projections Romney would have more delegates than Santorum, but if Santorum and Newt delegates combined can put Santorum over, then Newt might give his support to Santorum.
but what are the chances of deals being done before the convention, if it really becomes clear that Dr.Paul might take it in the 2nd round.
i mean, if they know this could happen on the second ballot, wont they make deals and cut us out ?

[PolicyReader]

i feel that Newt is staying around to garner enough delegates, so that he can give those to Romney, in return for VP, Sec of State, or a new intern !!
by current projections Romney would have more delegates than Santorum, but if Santorum and Newt delegates combined can put Santorum over, then Newt might give his support to Santorum.
but what are the chances of deals being done before the convention, if it really becomes clear that Dr.Paul might take it in the 2nd round.
i mean, if they know this could happen on the second ballot, wont they make deals and cut us out ?

There's no official way that I know of to make a deal and pass delegates over from one to another.
They can drop and endorse and if those newly unbound delegates decide to abide by the endorsement (which surly some may) then that can be done but beyond that there's really not much that can be done directly. (At a brokered convention it's my understanding things get a bit more sticky but it mostly boils down to the same, delegates who are unbound vote how they want and it's anybodies guess if they'll follow the instructions of their candidate, likely some will some won't and outcomes will depend on the numbers )

[cassielund99@gmail.com]

The problem is newt can't just give pledged delegates to another candidate with a endorsement. The delegates become free agents and can vote whoever they want to.

[cindy25]

It isn't always about numbers. Numerically, yes, Santorum can do it. Would it be next to crazy? Yes.

Firstly, I am not going to read Nate Silver's blog. So I am not going to reference it in any way.

Delegate breakdown 2012:

Superdelegates: 117 (these are instrumental in Santorum's 'path')
Delegates: 2169 (Which I believe leaves 2169 delegates)

For argument sake, and I don't know the exact numbers but they are much lower, we will give Romney the 484 the media has him at and the 239 Santorum is at. Fox News most recent poll, before yesterday had Romney at 38 and Santorum at 32 with Gingrich at 13. We will give Santorum a +3 bump for his wins yesterday and Romney a -3 drop. That makes our national estimate Santorum 35, Romney 35. When Gingrich drops out, which I believe he will... and I will get there, Santorum will get 8% of his support, 4% of his support goes to Romney or remains undecided while 1% goes to Paul. Yes I know, it's a Fox News poll... but honestly Romney's rcp average is a bit worse than this poll anyways (so I am overestimating him). Now the polls are Santorum 43, Romney 39 (maybe).


Then we simply fill in the map in respectable portions. I will keep Gingrich in the delegate math until after Louisiana, where I anticipate he will drop out after a Santorum win (who is leading there in the most recent poll).

Here we go... (all delegate allegation will be proportional to preference poll, unless the state is a true winner take all)

Missouri: Romney-502 Santorum-262 (Santorum wins)
Puerto Rico: Romney-525 (no momentum change)
Illinois: Romney- 553 Santorum-290 (Santorum wins again)
Louisiana: Romney- 566 Santorum-308 (Santorum wins again)

It is at this point that the tide turns. Gingrich drops out. Most of these states haven't been polled, and so I will guess both geographically and on momentum.

D.C: Romney 585
Maryland: Romney 602 Santorum- 335
Wisconsin: Romney 617 Santorum- 355
Connecticut: Romney 630 Santorum-364
Rhode Island: Romney 638 Snatorum-371
New York: Romney-709 Santorum-413
Pennsylvania: Santorum- 485

It is here where Santorum runs up the victories in Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Nebraska, Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Oregon (where he pulls the upset after a string of victories).

Please tell me how even Romney can overcome losing 8 consecutive states this late in the running? Sure, they are virtually tied in delegates after that impressive run. Sure, Santorum doesn't get the delegate victory... but mentally, without our help, Santorum gets here. With our help, assuming we can give him 6 or 7%... the whole scenario changes. Suddenly he wins in New York, and he keeps pace in California. Speaking of California, does Romney even have anything left there after this beating? Does Santorum continue on after Texas with wins in Montana, South Dakota, and New Mexico (which I think he would)? Does he suddenly become competitive in New Jersey? What does Romney have left? Utah.

Romney is running on victories in New York, D.C, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Puerto Rico (from now until June 5th). That pales in comparison to what Santorum did in this scenario.

Now imagine what these numbers could look like with our support. It isn't needed. Without our support a brokered convention seems inevitable. Let's not swing this thing in Santorum's favor. Toss on 100 superdelegates to Santorum's delegate total and he easily passes Romney.

Santorum has no delegate slate in PA

[parocks]

No, absolutely not. In proportional states, it doesn't matter where the votes go so long as they don't go to Romney. Therefore, the best thing we can do is keep voting for our man. Strategic voting will not help us except in winner-take-all states.

Well, not quite true. If there are thresholds you have to reach and there's no way we'd reach them, you would want to vote to increase the percentage of a candidate who would reach them.

But, yeah, winner take all is different than proportional.

[parocks]

i feel that Newt is staying around to garner enough delegates, so that he can give those to Romney, in return for VP, Sec of State, or a new intern !!
by current projections Romney would have more delegates than Santorum, but if Santorum and Newt delegates combined can put Santorum over, then Newt might give his support to Santorum.
but what are the chances of deals being done before the convention, if it really becomes clear that Dr.Paul might take it in the 2nd round.
i mean, if they know this could happen on the second ballot, wont they make deals and cut us out ?

That's exactly what Ron Paul is being accused of doing, sticking around to get a deal. The most common "deal" is Rand for VP.

I think the truth is that it's just rational to do this. This is how it was done in the old days - all the time. Just keep <1144 and hope for the best in Tampa.

It makes it harder on Obama to do it that way. Obama would like to start hammering away at someone right now. He's ready for Romney. He's ready for Gingrich. He's ready for Santorum. The elites want Romney and Obama.

<1144 means a better convention than last time, a chance for Ron Paul, and an even greater chance of someone that we might not find perfect, but who will really upset the elites.

Kelly Clarkson / Ron Paul. Name any random famous person that will draw huge numbers of 18-29s away from Obama, and who is very skilled at viciously attacking Obama while remaining likeable, without any major skeletons. Suck on that, elites. And Ron Paul as VP.

[Aratus]

romney = r money = our money?