Louisiana Primary Poll

[ichirix]

http://www.wwltv.com/news/local/Santorum-ahead-in-La-in-WWL-TV-poll-142387215.html

Rick Santorum 25.44%
Mitt Romney 20.97%
Newt Gingrich 19.81%
Ron Paul 5.63%
Other 1.94%
Undecided 26.21%

Among Men
Rick Santorum 26.6%
Newt Gingrich 24.2%
Mitt Romney 23.4%
Ron Paul 7.0%
Other 1.6%
Undecided 17.2%

Among Women
Rick Santorum 24.4%
Mitt Romney 18.8%
Newt Gingrich 15.9%
Ron Paul 4.4%
Other 2.2%
Undecided 34.3%

Survey of 515 likely primary voters was conducted March 8-10, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points.

Wasn't our support supposed to be good in Louisiana?

[JJ2]

http://www.wwltv.com/news/local/Santorum-ahead-in-La-in-WWL-TV-poll-142387215.html

Rick Santorum 25.44%
Mitt Romney 20.97%
Newt Gingrich 19.81%
Ron Paul 5.63%
Other 1.94%
Undecided 26.21%

Among Men
Rick Santorum 26.6%
Newt Gingrich 24.2%
Mitt Romney 23.4%
Ron Paul 7.0%
Other 1.6%
Undecided 17.2%

Among Women
Rick Santorum 24.4%
Mitt Romney 18.8%
Newt Gingrich 15.9%
Ron Paul 4.4%
Other 2.2%
Undecided 34.3%

Survey of 515 likely primary voters was conducted March 8-10, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points.

Wasn't our support supposed to be good in Louisiana?

I think people were counting on the caucus, which comes after the primary.

[Keith and stuff]

I think people were counting on the caucus, which comes after the primary.

Exactly. Here are the 2008 results. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louisiana_Republican_primary,_2008

[jim70769]

Funny My wife or I did not get a call asking us who we plan on voting for.

[Paulatized]

Ron is polling about the same now (5.63%) as in '08 (5.33%). Would have thought it would have least be doubled.
What's up with that?

[Give me liberty]

So people are still going for Santorum and Romney? even with this mess in Afghanistan?

[PolicyReader]

Sample size is pretty small for my tastes. I've worked in polls a little bit and honestly for a race that's this big (scale of office and stage of race) I struggle to give much credit to anything with a sample size under 1000. Which is why I don't give much regard to most of the polls out there ;)

All of that aside Paul consistently draws more votes than poll numbers would indicate /shrug
I could go into all of why and how their methodology is flawed when applied to this race (even if sound when applied to a traditional case) but the point is that polls just aren't very good indicators save in spans as momentum indicators but that's just shift not degree.

[Salvial]

Can we stress the destruction of their beautiful ecosystem by the big oil-big gov deals and regulations?

I mean the oil refineries next to communities, the BP spill that has left many un-happy, the failures of FEMA.

This is all cannon fodder, no?

[unknown]

So people are still going for Santorum and Romney? even with this mess in Afghanistan?

Yes, mostly due to the blackout: http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/alleged-afghanistan-massacre-republicans-questioning-war-effort-153152684.html

[unknown]

http://www.wwltv.com/news/local/Santorum-ahead-in-La-in-WWL-TV-poll-142387215.html

Rick Santorum 25.44%
Mitt Romney 20.97%
Newt Gingrich 19.81%
Ron Paul 5.63%
Other 1.94%
Undecided 26.21%

Among Men
Rick Santorum 26.6%
Newt Gingrich 24.2%
Mitt Romney 23.4%
Ron Paul 7.0%
Other 1.6%
Undecided 17.2%

Among Women
Rick Santorum 24.4%
Mitt Romney 18.8%
Newt Gingrich 15.9%
Ron Paul 4.4%
Other 2.2%
Undecided 34.3%

Survey of 515 likely primary voters was conducted March 8-10, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points.

Wasn't our support supposed to be good in Louisiana?

The fuk man.

Just babble about gay marriage, rubbers and "kill all Muslims" and youre in??? The f*ck!?!?!??!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

[Esoteric]

This is why Ron needed to be in Hawaii.

[coffeewithchess]

Ron is polling about the same now (5.63%) as in '08 (5.33%). Would have thought it would have least be doubled.
What's up with that?

I was born/raised in Louisiana, still have most of my family there. While I have converted my mom, brother, sister-in-law, and multiple friends over to RP in Louisiana, the majority of the Louisianians, like the rest of the country, will vote for the candidate that the media talks about the most...media being Fox News, Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, and others like them.

The problem with RP ignoring certain media interviews (see Bill O'Reilly), is that he is missing a percentage of the Republican base that believes Fox News is the gospel according to politics.
O'Reilly has Dick Morris on, who openly lies about RP, Mike Huckabee has his own show on Fox, and openly lies about RP's positions, and multiple other Fox News hosts/guests do the same...how are we grassroots to combat that, when the campaign won't even get RP to go on the nations largest "news" show and at least use some time to dispel a few lies?

[kathy88]

Yes, mostly due to the blackout: http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/alleged-afghanistan-massacre-republicans-questioning-war-effort-153152684.html

OMG. When you click that link the address bar clearly says ALLEGED Afghanistan massacre. Alleged? Really? These people are twisted and sick. Wag that dog MSM.

[PolicyReader]

The fuk man.

Just babble about gay marriage, rubbers and "kill all Muslims" and youre in??? The f*ck!?!?!??!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!
Honestly a lot of it is be not Romney and you're in. When Undecided polls better than the "presumptive nominee" :rolleyes: it's quite telling.
Remember when the news was talking about how Romney would wrap this race up with SC or FL? Notice how the "win" date keeps getting pushed father and farther back in the schedule? (currently it's "he'll win after the final state UT votes" )
A lot of the GOP just doesn't like Romney, this isn't really being talked about in the media much :eek:shock:eek: it's downplayed as "who's the 'anti-Romney' " but if you can be presumed to be the winner out of the gate, have the most money and have one of only two campaigns with a ground game all on top of the support of the GOP establishment... aaannnnd still be less than one fourth of the way to the nomination almost half way through the race? Yeah, people don't like you much (and he wouldn't even be doing this well without the strong LDS GOTV effort )

[kathy88]

Honestly a lot of it is be not Romney and you're in. When Undecided polls better than the "presumptive nominee" :rolleyes: it's quite telling.
Remember when the news was talking about how Romney would wrap this race up with SC or FL? Notice how the "win" date keeps getting pushed father and farther back in the schedule? (currently it's "he'll win after the final state UT votes" )
A lot of the GOP just doesn't like Romney, this isn't really being talked about in the media much :eek:shock:eek: it's downplayed as "who's the 'anti-Romney' " but if you can be presumed to be the winner out of the gate, have the most money and have one of only two campaigns with a ground game all on top of the support of the GOP establishment... aaannnnd still be less than one fourth of the way to the nomination almost half way through the race? Yeah, people don't like you much (and he wouldn't even be doing this well without the strong LDS GOTV effort )

It would be interesting to see the percentages without the LDS vote. People just don't like this guy. I like Santorum less, though. He terrifies me. Romney is Obama. Santorum is Dangerous.

[cajuncocoa]

I was born/raised in Louisiana, still have most of my family there. While I have converted my mom, brother, sister-in-law, and multiple friends over to RP in Louisiana, the majority of the Louisianians, like the rest of the country, will vote for the candidate that the media talks about the most...media being Fox News, Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, and others like them.

The problem with RP ignoring certain media interviews (see Bill O'Reilly), is that he is missing a percentage of the Republican base that believes Fox News is the gospel according to politics.
O'Reilly has Dick Morris on, who openly lies about RP, Mike Huckabee has his own show on Fox, and openly lies about RP's positions, and multiple other Fox News hosts/guests do the same...how are we grassroots to combat that, when the campaign won't even get RP to go on the nations largest "news" show and at least use some time to dispel a few lies?I agree with your assessment about our state 100%. It doesn't surprise me at all to see Santorum leading, and I predicted he would win. Annoying, but predictable.

[coffeewithchess]

I agree with your assessment about our state 100%. It doesn't surprise me at all to see Santorum leading, and I predicted he would win. Annoying, but predictable.

Yea, a majority of my Facebook "friends" are from LA, and I target them with my Fox News lies/propaganda videos, hoping to wake up a few more...but the sheer stupidity I deal with, never ceases to amaze me; it's not just LA, it's nationwide.

[PolicyReader]

It would be interesting to see the percentages without the LDS vote. People just don't like this guy. I like Santorum less, though. He terrifies me. Romney is Obama. Santorum is Dangerous.
http://electionate.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/LDS-map.png
You can get a rough idea here. Remember when considering these numbers that on average the % will be higher in the GOP than in the numbers shown (numbers shown are % total populace). Also it might be worth weighting the numbers slightly beyond that due to the organization of their GOTV effort.

If you compare county by county in ID you can see that Romney does his best in the strongly LDS areas and starts doing poorly/losing the lower the concentration goes.

[TheBlackPeterSchiff]

http://www.wwltv.com/news/local/Santorum-ahead-in-La-in-WWL-TV-poll-142387215.html

Rick Santorum 25.44%
Mitt Romney 20.97%
Newt Gingrich 19.81%
Ron Paul 5.63%
Other 1.94%
Undecided 26.21%

Among Men
Rick Santorum 26.6%
Newt Gingrich 24.2%
Mitt Romney 23.4%
Ron Paul 7.0%
Other 1.6%
Undecided 17.2%

Among Women
Rick Santorum 24.4%
Mitt Romney 18.8%
Newt Gingrich 15.9%
Ron Paul 4.4%
Other 2.2%
Undecided 34.3%

Survey of 515 likely primary voters was conducted March 8-10, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points.

Wasn't our support supposed to be good in Louisiana?

As a louisiana resident I can tell you he wont do jack down here. Bunch of old bible beating folks down here that want to "Kill dem Arabs" and "Kick them hispanics outta here"

[libertylastchance]

This is really not looking good. SANTORUM??????

[RPit]

All the polls will now be dismal because at this point the general public has consumed the idea that Ron can't win. So really don't expect any good 'polls' this is to be expected after half the country voting without a win.. And I mean a 'win' which the media has said was a 'win'. If we had won Iowa we would've been a whole different ball game!

[KMX]

Anyone in NW LA?? I will be coming from Texas with Ron Paul supply to hand out to people and talk to them one on one. The day of and the day before the primary.

Anyone in the area want to help? March 23rd and 24th,

[slamhead]

Ron is polling about the same now (5.63%) as in '08 (5.33%). Would have thought it would have least be doubled.
What's up with that?

The question is, what is up with all the Southern states?

[Agorism]

GOP establishment will need "pro-family\pro-life" again to trick voters to supporting Romney.

[Pisces]

The question is, what is up with all the Southern states?

The talk radio mafia has convinced a lot of people that Ron Paul is not a conservative. If you're not seen as conservative, you're going to have a real hard time in the South, at least in GOP primaries.

[slacker921]

The question is, what is up with all the Southern states?

It's not just Southern states. It's ALL UPCOMING STATES. As far as they know Paul has dropped out of the race. He's only getting about 5% of the media attention (http://features.journalism.org/campaign-2012-in-the-media/ron-paul/) and in most cases when even the local media talks about the presidential race they talk about "the three candidates." The turnout in a lot of states has been low (with Romney getting fewer votes than he got in '08 in many states) and the people staying home probably didn't even know who Ron Paul was.

This is why in Virginia the Paul supporters had such good luck just calling their friends and family and saying "Are you planning on not voting today? ... well come on and vote for Paul with me as a favor" ... people are fed up with the SantorumRomneyGingrich circus and are glad to just be told what to do.

[seawolf]

Ron needs to pick one State and one State only and plant himself their for the rest of March and make a stand......stay there day after day after day like Gingrich did in Georgia and Santorum did in Iowa, Colorado and Missouri.

Spending one or two days in any State like Paul has done in the last two months has not resulted in much success.

The strategy really has to change. Jesse and John have nothing to lose at this point anyway.

[KMX]

LA would be a nice state to do it in.

ANyone in NW LA?

[RPit]

Ron needs to pick one State and one State only and plant himself their for the rest of March and make a stand......stay there day after day after day like Gingrich did in Georgia and Santorum did in Iowa, Colorado and Missouri.

Spending one or two days in any State like Paul has done in the last two months has not resulted in much success.

The strategy really has to change. Jesse and John have nothing to lose at this point anyway.

and we end up losing that, and then become a laughing stock?

[ichirix]

Ron needs to pick one State and one State only and plant himself their for the rest of March and make a stand......stay there day after day after day like Gingrich did in Georgia and Santorum did in Iowa, Colorado and Missouri.

Spending one or two days in any State like Paul has done in the last two months has not resulted in much success.

The strategy really has to change. Jesse and John have nothing to lose at this point anyway.

South Dakota and Montana are our best shots but their primaries aren't until June.

Rhode Island and Connecticut would be good places to go during April (but Romney will probably win those)

[Suzu]

Santorum is Dangerous.
IMO he's more than that. He's crazier than Bachmann, more corrupt than Perry, more clueless than Cain, as much of a flipflop as Romney and more deluded than Gingrich. He's the poster boy for the GOP's decline. I'd stand in line for an hour if I knew that at the end of that hour I could have my choice of slapping him upside the head or giving him a powerful kick in the groin.