The Calculus Behind the Race to Tampa: Is this really true?

[Lethalmiko]

The Calculus Behind the Race to Tampa (http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2012/03/the_complex_delegate_math_for_winning_the_republic an_nomination_make_mitt_romney_a_near_certain_winn er_.single.html)
How the GOP’s complex delegate math proves that Romney is further ahead than he looks

"All campaigns are spinning the delegate math to their advantage. Mitt Romney’s team is arguing that his opponents cannot win enough delegates to overtake Romney’s delegate lead. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are arguing that they have a shot at accumulating enough delegates to surpass the weak front-runner and steal the nomination.

Both sides are spinning fantasies, but as might be expected, Romney’s fantasy is closer to reality. He is offering something closer to historical fiction whereas Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich’s tales are more like science fiction.

To understand what’s going on, it’s best to think of two dramas, one that takes place in the primaries and caucuses to come and one that takes place at the Republican convention in Tampa, Fla."

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2012/03/the_complex_delegate_math_for_winning_the_republic an_nomination_make_mitt_romney_a_near_certain_winn er_.single.html

[IDefendThePlatform]

Well he's completely wrong about Iowa, claiming Romney "gets" 12 delegates. We have our county conventions today to start the process of choosing basically all of our 28 delegates.

However, here's an interesting quote:


The “rules” would seem to favor Romney, but what if 20,000 people surrounded the arena in Tampa shouting, “We want Rick!” That might encourage delegates to break ranks, make up new rules, or find some other way.

In a party in which the establishment is fighting with its populist wing, it’s also dangerous for any party official to look like he is shutting out the most loyal, passionate, and vocal supporters.



Replace "Rick" with "Ron Paul" and replace "people" with "war veterans" and it sounds like the Ron Paul Veterans March on the convention. We'll need to play every card in our hand to try to maximize our persuasiveness. It's gonna be hard, but it ain't over til its over.

[Bruno]

Well he's completely wrong about Iowa, claiming Romney "gets" 12 delegates. We have our county conventions today to start the process of choosing basically all of our 28 delegates.

However, here's an interesting quote:




Replace "Rick" with "Ron Paul" and replace "people" with "war veterans" and it sounds like the Ron Paul Veterans March on the convention. We'll need to play every card in our hand to try to maximize our persuasiveness. It's gonna be hard, but it ain't over til its over.

+ rep

Excellent point and strategy. I agree Mitt doesn't "get" 12 delegates. I am heading out to the convention soon.

[bluesc]

+ rep

Excellent point and strategy. I agree Mitt doesn't "get" 12 delegates. I am heading out to the convention soon.

Good luck to you both and anyone else heading out to the conventions :D

[Travlyr]

The mainstream media got the Super Tuesday story wrong. Very wrong. Again.

I'm sure you heard them gleefully talk about which establishment candidate "won" which primary or caucus on Tuesday. The fact is no candidate for President has even made it 1/3 of the way toward the number of delegates needed to win the nomination.

And for that reason I am determined to proudly battle on - picking up more delegates and skewering the pretensions and historical rewrites of ALL the establishment candidates – Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich. And I will continue to proudly speak up for liberty, respect for the Constitution in domestic and foreign policy and a return to a limited government that acts and spends within its means.

And I will continue to do so as long as you stand with me.

So please, sign the Carry On Pledge below. After you sign the pledge, please make your most generous donation to the campaign. As you know, I run a debt-free campaign and can only continue if I raise the money first.

For Liberty,

Ron Paul

Carry On Pledge (http://ronpaul-2012.org/pledge.html?)

[Badger Paul]

There's the delegate dynamic but also the dynamics of the fact this contest will have gone one further than anyone possibly imagine and the Romney hasn't gotten the magic number means the GOP elites may very well decide the have the chance to ditch him and start over if he can't win on the first ballot.

Now maybe in the next few months it all starts to break for Mitt as Republicans want to end this thing. We shall see. I am of the opinion the GOP would benefit from an open convention which hashes out the what the party stands for and who it is going to nominate rather than having another North Korea-style coronation of John McCain to run another losing campaign against but that's just me. We'll see what they think.

[Lethalmiko]

NOTE: I posted this in another thread but think it is also appropriate here in case someone has an answer to the point I raised.

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...there are a maximum of 500 unbound delegates, representing 44% of the 1,144 required to win. Assuming RP miraculously wins all of these, he needs another 644 of the remaining 1,786 out of the total of 2,286 to win. The 644 represents 36% of the 1,786.

Considering that:

(a) most of the super delegates will likely vote for Romney
(b) RP has only managed to get 11% of the popular vote so far
(c) RP is definitely not getting all 500 unbound delegates
(d) RP has not managed to reach 36% in any of the 24 contests so far apart from Maine and Virginia (where there were only two candidates on the ballot)
(e) Santorum and Gingrich are more likely to cut a deal with Romney giving him their delegates in exchange for a cabinet position or something similar

I am yet to hear a rational convincing explanation from anyone how he will get to 1,144.

[MelissaWV]

NOTE: I posted this in another thread but think it is also appropriate here in case someone has an answer to the point I raised.

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(e) Santorum and Gingrich are more likely to cut a deal with Romney giving him their delegates in exchange for a cabinet position or something similar

This is the weakest of the points, and really the main area where things can go Ron's way.

Firstly, Ron can win a great deal of national delegates via Caucuses. That's well-known. He also picked up a few delegates via primaries. That's a little less well-known. He also has people who've become delegates in states where they are bound to someone else for 1-3 rounds and, if there is a brokered convention, they will be free to vote for whomever they want. That seems like a longshot, but yet in Florida alone there are dozens of people attempting to do just that. It's not easy. There are some who say they will be faithless electors, which is ill-advised since many states can track you down and punish you for that... and if they decide to do it in the first round, and replace you with an alternate, you may do more harm than good. Longshot, there.

Then there's the dropout factor. Newt has SC and GA, and if he drops out (it's all up to his financial backers there), his delegates will be up for grabs. I have no illusions about all of them going to Ron. I do think, though, it might boost Santorum more than Romney. Romney is notoriously unpopular in the South (note: Florida is not "the South").

It is a very slim, very slight chance. I don't care, though; I'm here to see this through and am attempting to become a delegate for Florida myself.

[Lethalmiko]

(e) Santorum and Gingrich are more likely to cut a deal with Romney giving him their delegates in exchange for a cabinet position or something similar

This is the weakest of the points, and really the main area where things can go Ron's way.

Firstly, Ron can win a great deal of national delegates via Caucuses. That's well-known. He also picked up a few delegates via primaries. That's a little less well-known. He also has people who've become delegates in states where they are bound to someone else for 1-3 rounds and, if there is a brokered convention, they will be free to vote for whomever they want. That seems like a longshot, but yet in Florida alone there are dozens of people attempting to do just that. It's not easy. There are some who say they will be faithless electors, which is ill-advised since many states can track you down and punish you for that... and if they decide to do it in the first round, and replace you with an alternate, you may do more harm than good. Longshot, there.

Then there's the dropout factor. Newt has SC and GA, and if he drops out (it's all up to his financial backers there), his delegates will be up for grabs. I have no illusions about all of them going to Ron. I do think, though, it might boost Santorum more than Romney. Romney is notoriously unpopular in the South (note: Florida is not "the South").

It is a very slim, very slight chance. I don't care, though; I'm here to see this through and am attempting to become a delegate for Florida myself.
Actually you are wrong because Gingrich/Santorum are establishment candidates. Winning a great deal of national delegates does not mean a majority. Besides, what percentage of delegates are from caucus states which RP so far is failing to win? The only state he won has already had its delegates allocated to Romney. The other guys dropping out will probably urge their delegates to support Romney. We have to research the rules about whether their delegates are bound to follow Romney or are free. Even if they are free to follow anyone, it is not likely to be RP.

You are certainly to be commended for your fighting spirit.