Kansas' caucus will help decide Republican nominee (some caucus info)

[sailingaway]

http://www.kansan.com/news/2012/mar/08/kansas-caucus/

[Batman]

We need some firepower in this state.

[kathy88]

Huckabee won with 60% last time.

[ichirix]

Huckabee won with 60% last time.

I wouldn't expect Santorum to get anywhere near Huckabee's 60%

The mass majority of Kansas is extremely evangelical but hopefully some of that evangelical vote will go to Ron since he's the only "Christian" in the race.

[braane]

I know making predictions is generally useless... but I am going to take a stab at how the state will look.

http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/5708/800pxmapofkansashighlig.png

As you can see, I believe Romney will do well in the highly populated areas (such as Wichita and the Kansas city metropolitan statistical area). Santorum will do well in the less populated areas. Gingrich will win some counties. For whatever reason he is popular here, I can see him getting 15%+ of the vote (I am thinking closer to 20).

Every county I have Paul winning are college counties. Douglas (location of KU), Riley(KSU), Lyon (Emporia State), Crawford (Pitt State), and Ellis (Fort Hays State). A large portion (20%+) of their population in each of these counties is college students. We will have to see how things go, but I am hoping for the best and preparing for the worst.

If I have to make a prediction... Ron gets 3rd.

Probably something like:

31% Santorum
26% Romney
22% Paul
19% Gingrich.