tjasond
11-13-2007, 06:46 PM
I've been seeing a lot of positive numbers from the "scientific" polls lately, which is great. However, every now and again you still come across one that has Ron polling pretty low, which can be a little disheartening (for a moment, anyway).
So, I read this article the other day by a poster on the Lew Rockwell site: http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig7/muratore5.html which changed my mind about the poll numbers, even if they are low. I found the numbers from Kathryn Muratore (the author) a bit difficult to try and explain to others, so I broke it down like this:
The key fact with the primaries is that historically, fewer than 10% of supporters actually show up to vote. However, there is a high likelihood that greater than 50% of Paul supporters will show up to vote (probably much more, and apparently we here on the forums are the only ones who know why). So in an example scenario, let's say that the population of the entire state is 100,000 where the Ghoul is polling at 25% and Paul is at 5%. At this point, the voting scorecard starts off at:
Ghoul: 25,000
Paul: 5,000
Now, factor in the historic turnout percentages of supporters in primaries (10%) vs. those that support Paul (50%) and you get:
Ghoul: 2,500
Paul: 2,500
Finally, the tie breaker: The probability of there being greater than 50% turnout from Paul supporters vs. the probability of there being less than 10% turnout of Ghoul supporters. I think we can all agree that those are very favorable odds.
So the next time you see single digit poll numbers for Ron, just remember this: there's a real risk that Ron could win ;-)
P.S. Become a delegate. Contact your local meetup and do what must be done.
So, I read this article the other day by a poster on the Lew Rockwell site: http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig7/muratore5.html which changed my mind about the poll numbers, even if they are low. I found the numbers from Kathryn Muratore (the author) a bit difficult to try and explain to others, so I broke it down like this:
The key fact with the primaries is that historically, fewer than 10% of supporters actually show up to vote. However, there is a high likelihood that greater than 50% of Paul supporters will show up to vote (probably much more, and apparently we here on the forums are the only ones who know why). So in an example scenario, let's say that the population of the entire state is 100,000 where the Ghoul is polling at 25% and Paul is at 5%. At this point, the voting scorecard starts off at:
Ghoul: 25,000
Paul: 5,000
Now, factor in the historic turnout percentages of supporters in primaries (10%) vs. those that support Paul (50%) and you get:
Ghoul: 2,500
Paul: 2,500
Finally, the tie breaker: The probability of there being greater than 50% turnout from Paul supporters vs. the probability of there being less than 10% turnout of Ghoul supporters. I think we can all agree that those are very favorable odds.
So the next time you see single digit poll numbers for Ron, just remember this: there's a real risk that Ron could win ;-)
P.S. Become a delegate. Contact your local meetup and do what must be done.