What are the odds for Ron Paul in Kansas?

[intelliot]

Realistically, what are we expecting?

[Keith and stuff]

Lowish. It is likely Santorum county. If he falters, it could go to Gingrich. If the establishment wins, it will be Romney.

[IDefendThePlatform]

My wild guess :
Santorum 48
Romney 27
Paul 15
Grinch 10


In 08 it went big for Huckabee over McCain after Romney had dropped out.

[digitaldean]

If you can become delegates please try to do so for Santorum/Romeny/Newt so on the 2nd or 3rd vote you switch to Paul. Anyone else think this might be a good idea since Paul wont win this state?

[ichirix]

We have a very good shot at 2nd place. Lawrence and Kansas City will be very important.
But realistically due to the fact that people needed to register Republican a month in advance, Santorum will most likely win by a large margin. I wouldn't expect Romney to do extremely well either, but I'm hopeful that Gingrich will bring Santorum down a little bit.

Plus, March 10th is also the day of the Big 12 Championship. Depending on who is playing (Probably Kansas vs Mizzou), it could stifle the turnout as well.

Most High Schools and some colleges are also on Spring Break.

[madengr]

Just remember that Ron got 16% in 2008, which was twice as much as NH were he was expected to do well.

[seawolf]

Sorry, but Ron received 2,182 votes or 11% in 2008 finishing 3rd out of 3.

Maybe, we will do 20% if we are really organized and GOTV.

[sailingaway]

I think they are aiming at delegates, not a win, but more delegates are better than less delegates. And I'd take the win, if Kansas wanted to give it to us.

[sailingaway]

If you can become delegates please try to do so for Santorum/Romeny/Newt so on the 2nd or 3rd vote you switch to Paul. Anyone else think this might be a good idea since Paul wont win this state?

first fill Ron's delegate slots since they are proportional. Then, sure, be delegates. Get to convention. We are counting on this being a wild one.

[KMX]

I say...

Sandcrazy 32%
Mitt 29%
Paul 19%
Newt 17%
Other 3%

[Feelgood]

Zero. He is on a roll. :(

[Esoteric]

Intrade: Ron Paul - 0.2% chance of winning Kansas

75% chance of 3rd place.

[roversaurus]

I don't see the purpose of Paul going to Kansas.

His being there is not going to help the delegate strategy. Just save the money.
Or better yet. Try to win for a change. Go to a state where there is at least a chance of winning and go there a week in advance and STAY there. And advertise.

I'm sorry the more I think about it the more *^#$! I get. When have they ever tried hard to win since Iowa? They have always ALWAYS spread themselves too thin. They have always ALWAYS spent only a day or two in a state when they should have spent a week.

For example, Why isn't Paul spending the next week in Hawaii? Kansas is idiotic. There is NO time there to convince the voters. How much TV advertising? How many campaign events? I'll tell you, not enough.