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View Full Version : Strategic Vision: Paul at 5% in Iowa




Jwaksman
11-13-2007, 06:17 PM
I don't want to create multiple threads for new polls, but as of now I don't see a thread on this.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/iowa_poll_111407.htm


It's clear that Dr. Paul and McCain are basically tied right now for 5th. The thing is, we have the money to spend there, and name recognition to build. McCain has neither. And this poll (like the CBS poll) has both Rudy and Fred real low and within reach.



The fact is, we MUST get 3rd place or higher in Iowa. We have to catch Rudy and Fred, and we are getting SO close.

Jwaksman
11-13-2007, 06:19 PM
In my hurry to get this poll on the message board, I didn't have time to study the crosstabs. But here's the most important one to me:

4. Do you favor a withdrawal of all United States military from Iraq within the next six months? (Republicans Only)
Yes 53%
No 36%
Undecided 11%


We are the only campaign that favors something that a MAJORITY of likely Republican voters favor. We just need to let the voters know where we stand and we'll move right on up.

me3
11-13-2007, 06:20 PM
Wow, the anti-war message for GOP is huge in Iowa.

The campaign needs to ramp up it's advertising of the anti-war message in state. There is a potential to go much, much higher in the polls.

JosephTheLibertarian
11-13-2007, 06:20 PM
how does Huckabee not have the name recognition problem? That's what I want to know

Sematary
11-13-2007, 06:21 PM
In my hurry to get this poll on the message board, I didn't have time to study the crosstabs. But here's the most important one to me:

4. Do you favor a withdrawal of all United States military from Iraq within the next six months? (Republicans Only)
Yes 53%
No 36%
Undecided 11%


We are the only campaign that favors something that a MAJORITY of likely Republican voters favor. We just need to let the voters know where we stand and we'll move right on up.

I think the campaign should be nailing Iowa with direct mailings right now.

freelance
11-13-2007, 06:21 PM
Wow, the anti-war message for GOP is huge in Iowa.

The campaign needs to ramp up it's advertising of the anti-war message in state. There is a potential to go much, much higher in the polls.

You took the words right out of my mouth!

me3
11-13-2007, 06:22 PM
Reagan, Anti-War mailings. Nail it.

Alabama Supporter
11-13-2007, 06:24 PM
how does Huckabee not have the name recognition problem? That's what I want to know

Word of mouth. I imagine he is popular in the churches.

Ron Paul can get 3rd or better in Iowa with his immigration and Iraq message, I am confident.

Ron Paul Fan
11-13-2007, 06:24 PM
They are just getting the ads out in Iowa aren't they? Plus the ad that a PAC is going to run with the military veteran talking about Ron Paul. Someone said they've started phone calls and of course they bought radio ads a while ago. Mailing that beautiful booklet would be wise. Immigration is another issue where Paul can gain big favor in Iowa.

JosephTheLibertarian
11-13-2007, 06:25 PM
so Iowan hick word of mouth spreads faster than grassroots? I'll have to keep this in mind

fcofer
11-13-2007, 06:26 PM
how does Huckabee not have the name recognition problem? That's what I want to know

That, unfortunately, is a very good question. Somebody care to speculate?

Ron Paul Fan
11-13-2007, 06:27 PM
so Iowan hick word of mouth spreads faster than grassroots? I'll have to keep this in mind

Maybe he's been in the state non-stop? I think that's probably a big part of it. He has to invest everything he has in Iowa and win it or he has no chance.

Furis
11-13-2007, 06:27 PM
Reagan, Anti-War mailings. Nail it.

And Illegal Immigration



This is how you get Ron in first in Iowa

Shink
11-13-2007, 06:27 PM
so Iowan hick word of mouth spreads faster than grassroots? I'll have to keep this in mind

Fuck you. Otherwise, carry on.

Furis
11-13-2007, 06:28 PM
That, unfortunately, is a very good question. Somebody care to speculate?

A Local talk show host is promoting him...... I still dont understand why him and not Paul though. The host IS conservative not a typical neocon.

JosephTheLibertarian
11-13-2007, 06:29 PM
Fuck you. Otherwise, carry on.

country bumpkin?

Furis
11-13-2007, 06:29 PM
so Iowan hick word of mouth spreads faster than grassroots? I'll have to keep this in mind

Ill second the %^&( you.

Jwaksman
11-13-2007, 06:29 PM
I mentioned this is another thread. Huckabee has gotten a TON of positive media attention lately. I even saw a piece on Reliable Sources a week or two back about "The Media Crush on Mike Huckabee". And he's been getting the most positive coverage in Iowa, where he is still living on that irrelevant Ames Straw Poll.


Right now, all anyone knows is that he's a preacher and that he's charming. Eventually this honeymoon will end and people will learn more about Huck. Then they'll jump off the bandwagon. And he doesn't have the money to create his own image in the state, so once the media get off the bandwagon he's finished.

Tratzman
11-13-2007, 06:30 PM
There's lots of RP radio and phone-calling going on here, trust me. I just got home from work today and had a good RP phone message on my answering machine. I've also had numerous people come up to me and tell me they've been starting to see and hear lots more of RP. His message is getting through, don't worry! We'll finish in the top three here, with a great shot at beating the Huckster and finishing second.

I expect a low turnout for the caucuses because it's the night of the Orange Bowl and National Championship. This favors RP even more.

JosephTheLibertarian
11-13-2007, 06:30 PM
Ill second the %^&( you.

English?

Shink
11-13-2007, 06:30 PM
That, unfortunately, is a very good question. Somebody care to speculate?

Huck's been primarily campaigning here, that's why. Remember Tommy Tom Thompson? He practically lived here. That's what 'minor' candidates do.

Micahyah
11-13-2007, 06:31 PM
I second everything you guys are saying. With the anti-war stance all to himself, an adequate push by Paul's campaign with mailings and advertisements should lead to a 3rd place finish. A third in Iowa is KEY. If we go 3rd in iowa, the story coming out of iowa will be Paul and Huckabee rising and Giuliani, Thomspon, and McCain dropping like stones.

With that momentum, and the fact that Huckabee is falling/flat in NH, will put us in position to beat Romney in NH (at the least finish a close 2nd). Then the media story will be ALL PAUL ALL THE TIME, having beaten the media's #1 guy, Giuliani, twice in the first 2 races.

When the other primary guys start dropping out, it won't affect Paul's potential to grow as he still has the entire anti-war stance to himself. He also has the entire our-dollar-is-in-trouble stance to himself as well. Those are the top two issues, Iraq, and money. And the 3rd issue is illegal immigration, and he doesn't have bulls*** rhetoric backing him up, but a stellar congressional record on this issue. He will take the GOP primary.

kylejack
11-13-2007, 06:32 PM
Joseph, Huckabee's second place finish at Ames orchestrated by the FairTax people gave him a big media blitz, especially in Iowa. His religious background also helps him immensely with the churchers, I would imagine, and his strong support for farm subsidies. In many ways, Iowa is Huck's ideal state and New Hampshire is ours.

Badger4Paul
11-13-2007, 06:33 PM
I just saw the first television ad in IA about 30 min ago on cbs. My thoughts: lame! The name recognition is good, but they aren't doing a good job mentioning what separates Ron from the other candidates. Instead of saying "supported reagan and bush tax cuts" as they did, why not say HAS NOT VOTED TO INCREASE TAXES IN 20 YEARS OF CONGRESS or something. FFS! or... mention the economy, the war- to a much greater extent.

Furis
11-13-2007, 06:34 PM
Just to get this into perspective IF Ron doesn't pull 3rd or HIGHER in Iowa it will be OVER for us.

Joey Wahoo
11-13-2007, 06:41 PM
4. Do you favor a withdrawal of all United States military from Iraq within the next six months? (Republicans Only)
Yes 53%
No 36%
Undecided 11%




This really surprises, and really encourages me.

If we can get the word out that Ron Paul is the ONLY candidate who is pro-life, will end illegal immigration and will get all US troops out of Iraq in 6 months, then we should be able to WIN this state. And earlier today I said we shouldn't even be wasting resources in it.

I had no idea Iowa Republicans felt this way about Iraq.

fez2008
11-13-2007, 06:42 PM
1) IA gives the momentum (ala Kerry) and will cataput a 1 state candidate into a national candidate.

2) 20,000 votes will win IA.

3) The only way to get those votes is for RP to spend most of his time in IA (when he is not in NH).

1st in IA is doable because I repeat only 20,000 votes are needed. something like bradley's strategy for DC (targeted campaigning) must be employed by the campaign.

me3
11-13-2007, 06:43 PM
Just to get this into perspective IF Ron doesn't pull 3rd or HIGHER in Iowa it will be OVER for us.
It's doable. As long as Iowa/NH split on the winner, and Dr. Paul places top 2 in one and top 3 in the other, we're in this for the long haul.

I don't even think America has seen the best of this campaign yet.

Furis
11-13-2007, 06:46 PM
It's doable. As long as Iowa/NH split on the winner, and Dr. Paul places top 2 in one and top 3 in the other, we're in this for the long haul.

I don't even think America has seen the best of this campaign yet.

Im not saying its not doable. Im trying to show just how VITAL it is to the campaign to do well in Iowa.



That said I just hear an ad for Ron on the radio. It will do well him good here.




1st in IA is doable because I repeat only 20,000 votes are needed. something like bradley's strategy for DC (targeted campaigning) must be employed by the campaign.


Where did you get this number???? I call BS.

Jwaksman
11-13-2007, 06:46 PM
1st in IA is doable because I repeat only 20,000 votes are needed. something like bradley's strategy for DC (targeted campaigning) must be employed by the campaign.



I do agree with you that Dr. Paul has to spend more time and focus on Iowa because of the slingshot effect. BUT, people who keep acting as if the turnout numbers will be the same as '04 are deceiving themselves. In '04 Bush was running unopposed, so a lot of people simply didn't bother voting. In Iowa, voting is a pain in the butt, so it's not worth voting when your vote doesn't matter. In New Hampshire, most of the independents voted on the Democratic side.

Voting levels in the primaries will be at 2000 levels, not 2004 levels.

literatim
11-13-2007, 06:47 PM
The PACs really need to focus there as well as NH.

stewie3128
11-13-2007, 06:49 PM
how does Huckabee not have the name recognition problem? That's what I want to know

These people will vote for strength and/or religion. Huckabee has religion, and RP is not seen as being religious. Many of them want a theocon, and Huck is just that.

fez2008
11-13-2007, 06:51 PM
I do agree with you that Dr. Paul has to spend more time and focus on Iowa because of the slingshot effect. BUT, people who keep acting as if the turnout numbers will be the same as '04 are deceiving themselves. In '04 Bush was running unopposed, so a lot of people simply didn't bother voting. In Iowa, voting is a pain in the butt, so it's not worth voting when your vote doesn't matter. In New Hampshire, most of the independents voted on the Democratic side.

Voting levels in the primaries will be at 2000 levels, not 2004 levels.

My estimation of 20,000 was based on year 2000 numbers when approx 80k people voted.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/primaries/IA/results.html

This time I estimate 20k (or 25% of the vote) will be a winner. 20k might actually be near to 30% because the turn out may be less than in 2000 (projecting by straw poll turnout)

csen
11-13-2007, 06:52 PM
The other question that's really stunning (to me at least):

2. Do you see President George W. Bush as a conservative Republican in the mode of Ronald Reagan? (Republicans Only)
Yes 7%
No 74%
Undecided 19%

Ideologically we're in great shape, just need to get name recognition/polls a bit higher to reach that tipping point.

francisco
11-13-2007, 06:52 PM
so Iowan hick word of mouth spreads faster than grassroots? I'll have to keep this in mind

Joe,

With all due respect, I wonder how many people you've alienated by that remark. I know it was not what you meant, but it is a good object lesson for us all to be sensitive and respectful of what we say here, especially as we move into the phase of recruiting large numbers of new supporters, many of whom will be visiting this board and becoming active.

Energy
11-13-2007, 06:54 PM
The campaign needs to spend aggressively for the Iowa and NH. It'll pay off.

gagnonstudio
11-13-2007, 07:09 PM
Isn't this also good news, because it shows Ron Paul being at 5%, which is the cutoff for the Fox debate on Dec 4.

So now he is at 5% both nationally and in Iowa.

francisco
11-13-2007, 07:11 PM
... A third in Iowa is KEY. If we go 3rd in iowa, the story coming out of iowa will be Paul and Huckabee rising and Giuliani, Thomspon, and McCain dropping like stones.

With that momentum, and the fact that Huckabee is falling/flat in NH, will put us in position to beat Romney in NH (at the least finish a close 2nd). Then the media story will be ALL PAUL ALL THE TIME, having beaten the media's #1 guy, Giuliani, twice in the first 2 races...

Yes, IOWA is KEY!

And Iowa is a CAUCUS, where people gather in small local groups, often in living rooms, to support their candidate and lobby their neighbors. It is not an impersonal vote-in-the-booth experience.

It is absolutely imperitive that we get a strong boots on the ground presence.

Ideas:

--Make the LA meetup group's handwritten letter campaign a success, asking meetup members across the nation to participate.

--Use meetup memembers nationwide to do phone banking.

For both activities above, official campaign could provide very cost-effective video training via the web. (simple programmed learning techniques, including test to validate. Also will need method to ensure quality control)

--need yard signs everywhere, including legal placement on private property adjoining well-travelled state highways.

We don't need to win Iowa, but we need to exceed expectations! A vote exceeding expectations in Iowa sets the stage for an explosive success in New Hampshire!

Similar argument applies to Nevada caucus.

RockEnds
11-13-2007, 07:22 PM
Originally Posted by JosephTheLibertarian
so Iowan hick word of mouth spreads faster than grassroots? I'll have to keep this in mind

Grassroots is Iowa hick word of mouth, isn't it? I'm sure I'm an Iowa hick, and I'm sure I'm spreading my crabgrassyroots by word of mouth.

I'd like to know where all of these pre-existing anti-war Republicans are. I'm having trouble locating any. I've found several who are against the war in principle, recognize that we went in based on a lie, and wish George Bush was a Democrat, but they are worried about a withdraw dishonoring the troops who have died. They are also very concerned about terrorism.

I understand all the arguments around this line of thought, but it's their opinion, and they're entitled to it. Suggesting that we just pack up and come home ASAP isn't really the message these people are seeking. It might need to be just a bit more tempered.

Furis
11-13-2007, 07:26 PM
Grassroots is Iowa hick word of mouth, isn't it? I'm sure I'm an Iowa hick, and I'm sure I'm spreading my crabgrassyroots by word of mouth.

I'd like to know where all of these pre-existing anti-war Republicans are. I'm having trouble locating any. I've found several who are against the war in principle, recognize that we went in based on a lie, and wish George Bush was a Democrat, but they are worried about a withdraw dishonoring the troops who have died. They are also very concerned about terrorism.

I understand all the arguments around this line of thought, but it's their opinion, and they're entitled to it. Suggesting that we just pack up and come home ASAP isn't really the message these people are seeking. It might need to be just a bit more tempered.

You could tell them that we WON the war and the rebuilding is what is killing the troops.

Why should we rebuild their crap when they keep killing out troops, bring our troops home.

Its a dishonor to let them die when there is an alternative.

>>Edit so you know there is support in your neighboring counties. Van Buren (my home county) has some but not much support (im going to work on that over thanksgiving break) and Jefferson has some, but it is from the gurus so I think that that is turning off people to Ron.

LibertyEagle
11-13-2007, 07:26 PM
English?

Your statement was extremely rude.

Is that clear enough for you?

LibertyEagle
11-13-2007, 07:29 PM
The PACs really need to focus there as well as NH.

All it takes is money.

Donate here:
www.operationnh.com

RockEnds
11-13-2007, 07:33 PM
You could tell them that we WON the war and the rebuilding is what is killing the troops.

Why should we rebuild their crap when they keep killing out troops, bring our troops home.

Its a dishonor to let them die when there is an alternative.

>>Edit so you know there is support in your neighboring counties. Van Buren (my home county) has some but not much support (im going to work on that over thanksgiving break) and Jefferson has some, but it is from the gurus so I think that that is turning off people to Ron.

I don't have any trouble talking to them. I'm just suggesting that an anti-war message may need to address some of the surrounding issues to be effective. The veteran's commerical did an excellent job of this.

The men and women who gave their lives in Iraq, Viet Nam, Korea, and all the wars that came before made the sacrifice for the benefit of America. The best way we can honor them is to act in the best interest of our nation.

Furis
11-13-2007, 07:35 PM
RockEnd: Just out of curiosity, my parents don't have cable, do you know if and what channels the Ron Paul ads are on down there?

Thanks

RockEnds
11-13-2007, 07:42 PM
The ads are on KTVO. I have to admit, I don't watch network tv, but my cable comes in on channel 3, and the ad was running when I turned it on this morning. It was a very nice surprise!

RockEnds
11-13-2007, 07:43 PM
RockEnd: Just out of curiosity, my parents don't have cable, do you know if and what channels the Ron Paul ads are on down there?

Thanks

Your folks are from Van Buren Co?

LibertyOfOne
11-13-2007, 07:49 PM
so Iowan hick word of mouth spreads faster than grassroots? I'll have to keep this in mind

It's funny you mention that considering you can't properly punctuate. Stop being a jackhole towards other forum members.

RockEnds
11-13-2007, 07:55 PM
JosephTheLibertarian,

I'm not offended. I'm kinda sorta proud to be a hick from Iowa. If I weren't proud of it, I'd leave.

Zydeco
11-13-2007, 08:23 PM
so Iowan hick word of mouth spreads faster than grassroots? I'll have to keep this in mind

"Newark" anagrams to "wanker."

I'll assume it's a coincidence, if you promise never to inject pointless regional conflict into the forum ever again.

francisco
11-13-2007, 08:34 PM
On the ground report:

Just got off the phone long-distance to Iowa, talking to my father-in-law who lives in a retirement home. He describes himself as fairly apolitical / cynical about politics. He said Fred Thompson seemed to be coming on strong. When prompted, he did know about Ron Paul running and the Nov.5th fundraising (he knew the $4.3 million amount) but not so much about Dr. Paul's philosophy or positions.

Here's the good part: He agreed to distribute slim jms (that I will send him) to his neighbors in the retirement home!

JosephTheLibertarian
11-13-2007, 08:44 PM
It's funny you mention that considering you can't properly punctuate. Stop being a jackhole towards other forum members.

It's funny you mention that considering you are a moron.

Avalon
11-13-2007, 08:46 PM
I don't have any trouble talking to them. I'm just suggesting that an anti-war message may need to address some of the surrounding issues to be effective. The veteran's commerical did an excellent job of this.

The men and women who gave their lives in Iraq, Viet Nam, Korea, and all the wars that came before made the sacrifice for the benefit of America. The best way we can honor them is to act in the best interest of our nation.

One tactic I found had some traction in Georgia with people who were worried about withdrawal: "Well, first of all, you don't have to worry about Ron Paul doing anything until he's president, which will be January 20th, 2009. Secondly, the president sets the policy of withdrawal; he doesn't orchestrate it. The military will withdraw in a fashion to maximize safety and effectiveness."

The people who were warhawks that I've run into were almost entirely fiscal conservatives as well. So just asking them how they would pay for the war works well (trips them up). Be ready to jump on any BS they spew with facts about the deficit, debt, trade imbalance, funding from other nations like China (whom they don't like) etc. Every one I tried this with left muddled, not sure what to believe, with the exception of a couple individuals who agreed but said Israel is far more important than America.

Paulitician
11-13-2007, 09:00 PM
Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee seem to be Ron Paul's biggest competition in Iowa. I think we'll see that Rudy Giuliani has probably the least support out of the top tier even though he's supposedly no. 1. I think Fred Thompson is faltering, and Tancredo and Hunter are non-issues. In New Hampshire, I see only Mitt Romney as competition. I don't know too much about Nevada, Michigan, or SC. In any case, we need to start campaigning hard. Personally, I think Ron Paul can win all those states, the message just needs to get out there.

fletcher
11-13-2007, 09:12 PM
Give JosephTheLibertarian a break. You all would be pissed too if you lived in New Jersey.

francisco
11-13-2007, 09:22 PM
I'll assume it's a coincidence, if you promise never to inject pointless regional conflict into the forum ever again.


oops he did it again:D

weatherbill
11-13-2007, 09:24 PM
The campeign could also be focusing on winning the older people's vote, since it is the younger people who are already in our camp. If that is the case, then maybe we who are younger are not gonna be appealed by the adds as much as an older person, so something to consider when seeing the IOWA adds

weatherbill
11-13-2007, 09:25 PM
One tactic I found had some traction in Georgia with people who were worried about withdrawal: "Well, first of all, you don't have to worry about Ron Paul doing anything until he's president, which will be January 20th, 2009. Secondly, the president sets the policy of withdrawal; he doesn't orchestrate it. The military will withdraw in a fashion to maximize safety and effectiveness."

The people who were warhawks that I've run into were almost entirely fiscal conservatives as well. So just asking them how they would pay for the war works well (trips them up). Be ready to jump on any BS they spew with facts about the deficit, debt, trade imbalance, funding from other nations like China (whom they don't like) etc. Every one I tried this with left muddled, not sure what to believe, with the exception of a couple individuals who agreed but said Israel is far more important than America.


excellent point!

nullzero
11-13-2007, 09:32 PM
Definately think if the Ron Paul Campaign pushed hard about the cost of the war regarding lives and money he would really benefit. Just look at this article that is on the front of cnn.com right now.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/11/13/hidden.war.costs/index.html
"Report: A family of four's share of the financial burden for both wars is $20,900"

Ron Paul needs to push this message hard! We will be paying this for years to come and our sons and daughters will be the ones to deal with the problems.

Taco John
11-13-2007, 09:33 PM
how does Huckabee not have the name recognition problem? That's what I want to know

Church. Huckabee is getting a lot of evangelical attention in Iowa.

specsaregood
11-13-2007, 09:40 PM
//

RockEnds
11-13-2007, 09:45 PM
Come on now. During the Revolutionary War, my people lived in New Jersey!! I'm getting it from both directions. :p

But seriously, I experienced pointless regional conflict when I looked down at Israel from the top of Mt. Nebo while my husband explained to me that I wasn't allowed into that country because I was married to a Palestinian and my passport been stamped with a Jordanian visa. That's pointless regional conflict. Experiences like that are why I'm really very proud to be an Iowa hick Ron Paul supporter.

Furis
11-13-2007, 11:25 PM
ATTN PEOPLE IN IOWA:

I posted a link explaining how the process works in Iowa in the Iowa Section of the Caucus Section.


Edit>>> Please post in that thread if you are going to make an attempt at the caucuses, its good to have a head count. Thank you very much.