For those obsessed with winning a state's preference poll- what about Montana?

[Jeremy]

Ron did well in Montana in 2008 and it looks like it's between the Romney coast and the Santorum center. It's a while away, but I think Ron has a chance if Santorum is still in the race then.

[seyferjm]

Chuck Baldwin lives there now, he should do a speech or two for Ron

[bluesc]

Chuck Baldwin lives there now, he should do a speech or two for Ron

That would be awesome :D

[sailingaway]

I don't know who gave this thread one star, but I gave it five.

[bluesc]

I don't know who gave this thread one star, but I gave it five.

A defeatist who deserves the ban. At least for a day for a cool down period.

[D.A.S.]

Montana is definitely high on our priority list, or should be anyway. What's the word on the Mormon population there?

[bluesc]

What's the word on the Mormon population there?

"I like that Morm--Mitt Romney guy"

[tsai3904]

Ron Paul performed well in 08 because there was no primary and it was only a caucus.

This year, there is a non-binding primary in addition to the caucus. They have made the caucus more restrictive this year than in 08. You have to be a Precinct Committeeman/woman to participate in the caucus (same rule this year as in 08). However, in 08, anyone could be appointed to fill vacant positions up until the day of the caucus, but for this year, they changed the rules (at least several counties did) to where you have to be appointed at least 60 days before the caucus to be eligible to participate.

[D.A.S.]

According to http://sos.mt.gov/elections/Voter_Turnout/index.asp Montana has one of the highest voter turnout rates in the nation. With the total population of Montana now at about 999,000:

Primary Year | Registered | Votes Cast | % Turnout
2010 | 639,309 | 206,791 | 32.5%

Mormon population is about 5% of the state population, or around 50,000, according to Wiki.

I do believe we have us a shot here.

[alucard13mmfmj]

According to http://sos.mt.gov/elections/Voter_Turnout/index.asp Montana has one of the highest voter turnout rates in the nation. With the total population of Montana now at about 999,000:

Primary Year | Registered | Votes Cast | % Turnout
2010 | 639,309 | 206,791 | 32.5%

Mormon population is about 5% of the state population, or around 50,000, according to Wiki.

I do believe we have us a shot here.

50,000? jeezus. thats like 25% (assuming they can all vote for simplicity sake) right there of the 200,000 votes from 2008 lol.

If Romney vs Paul, we will probably win... but we have to factor in Santorum. Santorum has been screwing Ron with the votes. We argue that it is best that all candidates should stay in the race to get some kinda brokered/open convention. But, it hurts us badly in popular vote. With Santorum out of the picture, we would probably win some states. With Santorum in, he will suck votes away.

Some scenarios with Santorum
-Santorum stays in race. Ron can't win popular votes, but Santorum makes it less likely for Romney to get the required total of delegates. Maybe get some kind of a deal in favor of Ron.
-Destroy Santorum with attacks. Ron has a much better chance to start winning popular votes. Risky since Romney's projected delegates is around 400+.
a) Ron does good enough with former Santorum votes to get enough popular votes/delegates to beat Romney and win nomination.
b) Ron does good. win some popular votes, but just not enough. Convert a lot more people to our cause/movement when they jump onto our band wagon.

I suggest we destroy Santorum with attacks and hope that Santorum voters come to us. Even if they don't come to us, if they go to Newt, it would help a lot. You catch my drift? Santorum supporters will probably go to Ron or Newt. Newt has no chance of winning, but it would continue to hinder Romney.