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View Full Version : Ron Paul's chances of winning the Republican nomination, in your opinion




FreedomLover
11-13-2007, 03:25 PM
Obviously the chances are a lot brighter than just a month ago, so where do you think we stand now?

krott5333
11-13-2007, 03:26 PM
if the momentum keeps up, and each and every one of us puts an honest effort to do everything we possibly can, the chances are very good.

and I'm being completely honest. December 16th is going to play a big part in this.

Keep doing the local work as well.

MikeStanart
11-13-2007, 03:27 PM
We're further up the mountian than we were last month.

But we still have much left to climb!

We've had much progression; keep on pushing!

Derek Johnson
11-13-2007, 03:29 PM
Talk to your neighbors, the people one street over, two streets over, and at church, work, school and so forth.

This is key.

Yes, there is a real risk that he might win....but we must talk to each other.

Get talking. And encourage those receivers of your talk to participate in the tea party...make a list, sign them up, and compare lists at your local meetup group meeting.

PrimarilyPaul
11-13-2007, 03:29 PM
Not good if people don't register as Republican. Every single Ron Paul supporter needs to register as a Republican and vote in the primary.

http://www.primarilypaul.com/register/

RPFTW!
11-13-2007, 03:33 PM
Not too good if they use Diebold voting machines to count the votes.

Benaiah
11-13-2007, 03:35 PM
Talk to your neighbors, the people one street over, two streets over, and at church, work, school and so forth.

This is key.

Yes, there is a real risk that he might win....but we must talk to each other.

Get talking. And encourage those receivers of your talk to participate in the tea party...make a list, sign them up, and compare lists at your local meetup group meeting.


I agree. We have to tell EVERYONE we encounter on a daily basis. Personal relationships is where it's at.


New Hampshire win + 10 mill Dec 16th = Paul wins.

Primbs
11-13-2007, 03:38 PM
We have the big momentum.

We are going to need more however.

fourameuphoria
11-13-2007, 03:38 PM
I still think SC is very important. Buchanan and McCain were the Mavericks who took NH, but were never able to capture SC, and pretty much trailed off.

Chomsky
11-13-2007, 03:39 PM
I firmly believe that the polls mean next to nothing this primary season. The methods are out dated and have been for several election cycles. I think Dr. Paul is going to shock the world in Iowa.

BuddyRey
11-13-2007, 03:45 PM
I answered 50/50, which is an uncharacteristically pessimistic answer from yours truly, but takes into account whatever chicanery (vote-tampering, redistricting, smear campaigns, etc.) the neocons are likely to try and pull. In a perfectly clean election however, I'd give RP's chances as much higher, at least 75% to win the nomination, and after that, 65-70% chance of besting Hillary (assuming she's the nominee, which the media seems to think is a sure thing.)

Furis
11-13-2007, 03:45 PM
Only assured way is to get delegates in to where the delegates are unbound.

If we get past the powers that be, he has a very good chance or is guaranteed.

Menthol Patch
11-13-2007, 03:46 PM
Victory is assured IF we work together and redouble our efforts.

If we don't kick things up a notch we are destined to lose.

Cali4RonPaul
11-13-2007, 03:47 PM
Hes got a chance at this stage, its not big but its there, we will see how things turn out, the next few weeks are crucial, dec. 16 may help alot as well.

Ron Paul Fan
11-13-2007, 03:48 PM
Ron Paul will be the nominee of the Republican Party and will defeat Hillary Clinton in the general election.

Menthol Patch
11-13-2007, 03:50 PM
If Ron Paul wins depends on all of us. If we want him to win the nomination bad enough we can make it happen. It just depends on how much of our time, money, and resources we are willing to donate.

RTsquared
11-13-2007, 04:00 PM
Call me a pessimist if you will, but I see the odds of RP winning the primary at this point at about 15%. Of course, when I first joined the forums a couple months back, I thought his odds of winning were < 1%.

Things are getting better, but there are a lot of paradigms that have to shift between now and Minneapolis.

Tom29
11-13-2007, 04:08 PM
Ron Paul 2008 equals winning. (God Willing.)

Goldwater Conservative
11-13-2007, 04:17 PM
I would say "very small", although I have no idea what the percentage odds are.

I think our biggest obstacles are name recognition and misinformation, and the media is actively hurting us in both regards by putting so much faith in Frank Luntz and then repeatedly misrepresenting Paul's views. The second biggest culprit is probably the party itself, whether it's their obvious desire to shut him out of the process or the winner-take-all structure of the primaries (among other things) that guarantees an outsider needs to overwhelm them to win.

Still far more possible than the pundits and most of our opponents insist, however, and the momentum is definitely on our side.

mwkaufman
11-13-2007, 04:20 PM
I think we're something like 15% with Rudy gobbling up 50% and Romney around 30%. I think a Huckabee, McCain or Thompson nomination would be shocking.

Adamsa
11-13-2007, 04:28 PM
It's all about those early primaries to be honest for Ron.

Goldwater Conservative
11-13-2007, 04:48 PM
I think we're something like 15% with Rudy gobbling up 50% and Romney around 30%. I think a Huckabee, McCain or Thompson nomination would be shocking.

I agree. I think McCain will drop out after NH, especially if he loses to Paul or gets a really low percentage. I think Thompson peaked the moment he announced. He's just saying to save face, in my opinion, and because he might still have political aspirations for another office somewhere. Huckabee will do well in Iowa, but I don't see him going anywhere after that.

Furis
11-13-2007, 04:52 PM
I agree. I think McCain will drop out after NH, especially if he loses to Paul or gets a really low percentage. I think Thompson peaked the moment he announced. He's just saying to save face, in my opinion, and because he might still have political aspirations for another office somewhere. Huckabee will do well in Iowa, but I don't see him going anywhere after that.

I would love to see McCain drop out, BUT he helps split the Pro-War vote with all others and the liberal vote with Rudy.

lynnf
11-13-2007, 04:53 PM
if we can just get word out to people about what has been going on in this country ... just today it was reported that there have been "hidden" expenditures in the war and it has cost twice as much as previously reported ... $1.9 trillion so far!

just highlights the mess the country is in and shows how much an honest man is needed for president.


lynn

Original_Intent
11-13-2007, 04:56 PM
I think llepard, in all seriousness, raised our odds a few percentage points today.

I am so humbled by all of you. You are freaking amazing people.

Original_Intent
11-13-2007, 04:58 PM
I agree. I think McCain will drop out after NH, especially if he loses to Paul or gets a really low percentage. I think Thompson peaked the moment he announced. He's just saying to save face, in my opinion, and because he might still have political aspirations for another office somewhere. Huckabee will do well in Iowa, but I don't see him going anywhere after that.

I think I heard that the Huckster announced that he is moving to Iowa until the caucus. He is going to be tough to beat in Iowa.

James R
11-13-2007, 05:12 PM
I don't like the poll. Going from "very small" to 50-50 is horrible.

mavtek
11-13-2007, 05:37 PM
In key states we need 100's of delegates, we're working on that in Texas, we need everyone else working on this as well!