CTrattlesnake's analysis thread: Super Tuesday Edition

[CTRattlesnake]

Hey all, the washington analysis thread was fairly accurate in predicting the outcome of the states caucus.

So, here I'm going to be reviewing the states we have the best shot at winning.


1) North Dakota
2) Alaska
3) Idaho
4) Vermont


I will be covering the top 4 in a series of posts in this thread.

Lets begin from the bottom up with Vermont.


Where are the people?

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/38/Maps_of_Vermont_population.png


Vermont is one of the least populated states in the nation with less than 700,000 people. Most of the state is dotted with small towns.

Largest cities:

Burlington 42,417
Essex 19,587
South Burlington 17,904
Colchester 17,067
Rutland 16,495
Bennington 15,764

The largest center of the population is clustered around Burlington and Lake Champlain in the northwest of the state. After that, small towns and cities voer the rest of the state pretty evenly with the exception of the northeastern part of the state which is thinly populated.

What happened in 2008?


Vermont's primary was held on March 4th and McCain had essentially wrapped up the nomination. With 71% of the vote, he trumped Huckabees 14% and Paul's 6%. McCain won every town.

That being said, even with 6% of the vote overall, Paul managed to come in second in Burlington, nearly doubling huckabees totals.

How about this year?

Here is why some people see hope in Vermont. In 2011, Romney out-raised Paul by only $4,000...no one else was even close to the two.

If we break it down further, we see this Paul out-raising Romney in 5/9 zip code regions.

http://i.imgur.com/TyjeO.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/M0ibj.jpg


Romney appears to have strong support in the burlington area and some of the souther parts of the state, but Paul has more support everywhere else, especially in the northeastern section.

While Vermont is more liberal than New Hampshire overall, the republicans that inhabit Vermont are relatively similar to those in NH. Many of Paul's strongest towns in NH bordered Vermont, and that is reflected in donations.


What to expect?

While I dont believe that Ron will win Vermont, I believe he can get a strong second place showing. This is not friendly territory for either Santorum or Gingrich, and Paul has proven he can do well in the northeast.

My prediction:

Romney: 44%
Paul: 28%
Santorum: 19%
Gingrich: 8%

I think Paul will do well, if not win the counties in Gold, Romney should win everywhere else
http://i.imgur.com/YXRbW.jpg

[parocks]

Good thread.

Perhaps you should add this information to all of your states that you cover.

1) Who can vote?

2) Is there Same Day Registration?

3) Links to a caucus finder or a primary finder.

I'm going to put up some facebook ads and I'm finding little on RPF that I would put in my ad.

[MisterTickle]

I can't wait to read the rest.

[parocks]

I like this thread, I'll add my research to it

**************
VERMONT
************
http://www.govotevermont.com/

Voter Registration Deadline was Feb 29.

ALL Registered Voters Can Vote in Republican Primary

**************
ALASKA
************

Voter Registration Deadline has passed.

Republicans and Independents Can Vote in Republican Primary

[PolicyReader]

Looking forward to the rest, great look thread so far :D

[pahs1994]

I would add that Vermont's delegate allocation is 17 total: 3 RNC, 11 at large and 3 winner take all of the congressional districts.

I have just learned that VT has one CD so basically the outright winner will get the 3 CD delegates. The final 11 are proportional, UNLESS a candidate gets 50% of the vote, than it is winner take all. We need to keep Romney under 50%.

My source is wiki of course :o http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012#Prim ary_schedule

[CTRattlesnake]

#3---Idaho


Whats at stake?
-Closed Caucus
-32 total delegates - 10 base at-large / 6 re: 2 congressional districts / 3 party / 13 bonus to winner

Now stick with me here, this is where it gets pretty cool.


In each county, voting takes place by secret ballot in successive rounds. Voting continues until either a single candidate receives greater than 50% of the vote, or until only 2 candidates remain on the ballot and a final vote is taken. After each round, remove any candidate receiving less than 15% then remove the candidate receiving the fewest votes.

Any candidate winning more than 50% or more of a county's vote will be awarded that entire county's share of National Delegates.
When neither candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, the candidates split the county's share of National Convention Delegates, in proportion to the candidates' county vote totals [Rules Article VI Section 4:].

So essentially what Idaho does is it tries to water down the competition to two candidates. If neither candidate receives more than 50% of that counties vote, the counties delegates are split between the two. If one candidate receives the majority of the vote, he wins the delegates. They're a total of 396 county delegates, split proportionally amongst the counties.

Where are the people?
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/85/Idaho_population_map.png

Sparsely populated, Idaho's population centers are clustered around 3 main areas. Boise in the southwest, Cour D'Alene in the north, and the cities in the southeast.

Largest counties by population

Ada-------300,904 (home to Boise)
Canyon---131,441 (borders Ada county)
Kootenai--108,685 (Cour D'Alene, suburbs of Spokane as well)
Bonneville- 82,522 (Idaho Falls, SE part of State)
Bannock--- 75,565 (SE part of state)

Now, here is where we run into some trouble. There is a significant LDS population in the Southeastern part of the state, in fact Idaho has the second highest mormon population percentage wise in the entire country. So its clear Ron is going to struggle in that part of the state.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/35/LDS_Percentage_of_Population_2000.PNG

What happened last time?

The Idaho primary took place in late may in 2008. Ron received 23% of the vote, even though McCain was the nominee by that point and he was the only other person on the ballot. So, while its not that telling, the 2008 vote does reveal a bit of interesting information about Ron's support in the state.

The map below highlights Ron's 2008 support. Remember, he received 23% overall.

Gold=40%+
Green=30%-40%
Blue=23%-30%
Orange=15%-23%
Red=15% or less

http://i.imgur.com/lbGbI.jpg


You can see Ron's support is best in the northern and western parts of the state while he lags behind in the mormon southeast.

What can we expect this time?

Lets first look at campaign contributions through the end of 2011.

As you can see, Romney absolutely destroyed Ron in the southeastern part of the state. But Ron returned the favor in the north.

http://i.imgur.com/vyxsS.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/glova.jpg


So what we have is almost polar opposites. Ron in the north, Mitt in the southeast. Slight advantage for Mitt in Boise.

So what can we expect?

Again, I dont see Ron winning, but I think a solid second is in store. Mitt's support is simply too overwhelming in the mormon areas of the state. If you took away that region, I'd say Ron could probably win, but with that area, its not going to happen. The one element that we do have working in our favor though, is that Idaho this time around, is a caucus. We all know how much that benefits us, so I do expect the campaign to walk away with a solid amount of delegates especially because state delegates are awarded based on a county by county basis.

Like I said before, its going to be hard to win, but if Ron is going to do it, he has to win Ada county. Simple as that. Santorum and Gingirch may get strong support in some of the rural areas randomly scattered throughout the state and could take some support away from both Ron and Mitt in the cities. However, i think they will come in 3rd and 4th respectively.

[CTRattlesnake]

shameless bump

will have ND and AK up later

[Syntax]

Good read! I'm looking forward to the analysis for ND and AK.

[Paulatized]

excellent, excellent. I like this detail analysis.
+rep to you.

[CTRattlesnake]

#2 Alaska

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Y8dVgrlzuG0/Snd1x4dbyUI/AAAAAAAABXE/dOju8dSju60/s400/Alaska.jpg

What's at stake?
-24 delegates, 10 base at-large / 3 re: 1 congressional district / 3 party / 11 bonus
-caucus (can register as a rep. at the caucus)
-Timeline:
-Straw poll: March 6
-District Conventions (delegates to state convention): 6 March - 24 March
-State Convention: 26 April - 28 April


Where are the people?

http://i201.photobucket.com/albums/aa214/trinket2/Misc/Alaska_population_map.png

The least densely populated state in the nation, Alaska is known for its wide open spaces.

The three population centers in the state are as follows

Anchorage--------278,000
Fairbanks---------31,000
Juneau------------30,000

Besides that, there is really nothing notable.

What happened last time?


Candidate..........Votes............Percentage.... .Delegates
Mitt Romney 5,988..............35.87%.........12
Mike Huckabee 2,996..............21.86%..........6
Ron Paul 2,363..............17.24%..........5
John McCain 2,132..............15.56%..........3
Total 13,703..............100%............26


Romney won the state in 2008 which took place on super tuesday. With 17% of the vote, Alaska was one of Ron's best states, and the low turnout caucus certainly played to his strengths.

Unfortunately, trying to find data from Alaska is like trying to pull teeth out, and I couldnt find anything significant in terms of county by county vote. However, the fact that McCain placed 4th out of 4 during Super Tuesday highlights the states anti-establishment lean. Remember, Romney was the 'conservative' in 2008, McCain was this years Romney.

What can we expect this time?


Lets look at donations. Alaska was one of the few states where Ron actually led in donations, besting Romney by a significant margin (96,000-54,000).

Ron's beat Romney everywhere, but his biggest margin of victory came in the subrubs of Anchorage, including Sarah Palin's home town of Wasilla (24k-2k). This is significant because normally these suburbs and outlying areas would be Mitt's stronger areas, but in alaska, it appears just the opposite. Beyond that, I didnt notice anything out of the ordinary.

http://i.imgur.com/nbiTl.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/uFV63.jpg



I think Alaska will end up going to Ron. The fact that Alaska appears to be anti-establishment, coupled with the majority of donations going in Ron's favor, coupled with the low turnout caucus...everything points to a Ron win.

Basically, if Ron cant win in Alaska, where can he win?


Also of note, I would not be surprised to see Santorum challenge Romney for the 2nd spot, his evangelical message may play well to some.

[Danjlion7]

Well done!!!

[CTRattlesnake]

I would have really liked some town by town, or county by county info, but I cant find anything.

Best I could find is that Romney won every county, so it tells you there is not that much variation between regions.

[PolicyReader]

Still love reading this post, I endorse it again (I'm sad the GOTV effort for ID from the grassroots never got off the ground, I know ID reasonably well, lived there a couple times have friends and family etc. and I really think a solid GOTV push would have been able to carry Ron over the top... now I'll just cross my fingers but I think your assessment is spot on. As a side note If you are a Paul supporter IN IDAHO make sure you sign up as a delegate because the state convention can vote to re-award any/all delegates gained this Tuesday! )

[carterm]

repreprep

[fez2008]

"You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to CTRattlesnake again."

Excellent^2

I wish you can do the analysis for the remaining states much earlier than their election dates for efficient allocation of campaign and grassroots resources. I think we (myself with my fundraising, actual vote analysis) have all been behind the curve and too late to concentrate on good states like Maine, WA, Minnesota and now ND.

Waiting eagerly for your ND analysis ....

[enrique]

I find it strange that you think a guy who won every county in 2008 would lose this time. I mean, that would be great but the analysis seems a little thin. I sympathize with you in that there really isn't a whole lot to go on with no polling or much for current analysis. My hunch is that most voters are still 1) bandwagon voters and 2) establishment even in Alaska. Just because it seems so far away and remote to most of us, they still follow the news just like we do and watch Fox News. Intrade, FWIW, has Romney winning at 80%. I don't mean to drag everyone down here but I just don't see why you're so confident. Maybe there is something I missed.

Incidentally, looking forward to ND analysis. I really love those maps.

[andrew1229649]

CTRattlesnake tell these folks how bad we are going to win North Dakota.

[Keith and stuff]

Alaska has parted ways with the mainland before. For example, in 1980, the Libertarian Party team of Edward Clark and David Koch received 12% of the votes in AK but only 1% of the votes in the US. That was a while back, though.

[rpwi]

Nicely done...are you going to tackle any states after these four? Virginia (yes it's a long shot) might be fun to size up.

[opinionatedfool]

+rep

[Mark37snj]

+rep

[andrew1229649]

Here are my predictions. I think Vermont will be close, but I wouldn't be surprised if Romney won. I think Paul will blow all out of the water in North Dakota with Gingrich in a distant second. I also think Paul will handily win Alaska. Here is what you can expect the maps to look like. The counties that the other candidates win in Alaska and North Dakota are just a general area I think they might win a county. Alaska: http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/4551/alaskas.png North Dakota: http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/7808/northdakota.png Vermont: http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/4444/vermont.png

[PolicyReader]

I find it strange that you think a guy who won every county in 2008 would lose this time. I mean, that would be great but the analysis seems a little thin. I sympathize with you in that there really isn't a whole lot to go on with no polling or much for current analysis. My hunch is that most voters are still 1) bandwagon voters and 2) establishment even in Alaska. Just because it seems so far away and remote to most of us, they still follow the news just like we do and watch Fox News. Intrade, FWIW, has Romney winning at 80%. I don't mean to drag everyone down here but I just don't see why you're so confident. Maybe there is something I missed.

Incidentally, looking forward to ND analysis. I really love those maps.
I can't speak to Alaska one way or the other (the only people I know up there are Paul supporters but I don't know a whole lot of people up there so that may not mean much). However I will say that Intrade this year hasn't impressed me. Their calls have been iffy (and I don't really blame them this race is crazy, but that still doesn't make them a good source). They had Romney over 80% going into SC. Maybe I'm alone in this but personally I don't place much stock in them this cycle.

[enrique]

Andrew1229669, Any specific polling/demographic reasons for your predictions? Curious.

Policy Reader, Totally agree with your opinion of Intrade. It is simply best guesses of very imperfect information. My only point is that it is the only (very imperfect) data point of Alaska that I have seen.

[CTRattlesnake]

I find it strange that you think a guy who won every county in 2008 would lose this time. I mean, that would be great but the analysis seems a little thin. I sympathize with you in that there really isn't a whole lot to go on with no polling or much for current analysis. My hunch is that most voters are still 1) bandwagon voters and 2) establishment even in Alaska. Just because it seems so far away and remote to most of us, they still follow the news just like we do and watch Fox News. Intrade, FWIW, has Romney winning at 80%. I don't mean to drag everyone down here but I just don't see why you're so confident. Maybe there is something I missed.

Incidentally, looking forward to ND analysis. I really love those maps.

I share your frustration with the lack of data in AK, it annoys a stats junkie like me to no end :D

To address your point, McCain was the establishment candidate in 2008, Romney was the conservative....look where the two ended up. AK is not an establishment state at all, if you look at the dynamics of the 08 race, you'll find that Romney should actually come in last this time around, but we both know that wont happen. I have visited the state and the lifestyle is very different from the lower 48. While they still may watch Fox, they're is a much more noticeable libertarian streak. They dont call it the last frontier for nothing.

I'd put the odds at about 50/50 for a win in AK, again because of the lack of data, and the fact that Romney may still have a good presence there. Time will tell

[CTRattlesnake]

Enjoy-

#1 North Dakota

http://www.local-real-estate.com/images/north-dakota-500.jpg


What's at stake?

-28 delegates: 10 base at-large / 3 re: 1 congressional district / 3 party / 12 bonus
The winner is essentially guaranteed 15/25 winnable delegates.
-Caucus
-Voter must have voted for republicans in 2008, or intend to vote for the reps. in 2012 (not really sure how you check up on that one...)
March 30th-April 1st: State convention in Bismarck

Where are the people?

http://images.wikia.com/genealogy/images/4/46/North_Dakota_population_map.png


North Dakota actually has fewer people than Alaska (but has more than Vermont), which puts into perspective how wide open the state actually is. The state is really just a bunch of towns and small cities in the middle of the prairie. Not much going on between population centers. Lets look at the largest towns.

Fargo (eastern part of state) --------105,000
Bismarck (central part of state)------61,000
Grand Forks (eastern part of state)---52,000
Minot (northwest part of state)--------40,000

The key thing to note here is that the majority of the population lives relatively close to the MN border. The east is more developed than the west.


What happened last time?




Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates
Mitt Romney 3,490 35.82% 8
John McCain 2,224 22.83% 5
Ron Paul 2,082 21.37% 5
Mike Huckabee 1,947 19.98% 5
Total 9,743 100% 23


Like Alaska, Ron placed a close third, with Romney in the lead. Again, it is crucial people remember that Romney ran as the conservative alternative to John McCain in 2008 and as a result, excelled in the western, anti-establishment states.

County by county breakdown is relatively mundane and doesnt reveal that much. Romney won nearly every county, Paul managed to pull away 3 counties on the canadian border in the northeast and 3 more in the south/central. Huckabee won 3 next to Paul's 3 in the south/central, and McCain won a random county.

But like I said, that doesnt reveal much, lets break it down by legislative district and look at some cities. Remember, Paul received 21% of the overall vote.


Grand Forks (Overall: 15.25%)

District Paul%
42 16
43 13
18 25
17 7

Fargo (Overall 31.4%)

District Paul %
44 29
21 48
11 28
46 24
45 33
13 27
27 31

Bismarck (Overall=23%)

District Paul%
30 23
31 30
32 22
34 24
35 17

Minot (Overall=14.5%)

District Paul%
3 18
5 13
38 8
40 19

Math time.

Total votes in cities= 4,477 (45.75% of total)

Total Paul average vote in cities= 21.03%

Paul total vote in cities=941.5 (round that half person up to 942)

Paul vote in rural areas= 1,140/5308 (21.5%)


Paul urban vote: 21.03%
Paul rural vote: 21.50%

Long way of saying that Paul's city vote is equal to his rural vote.

Also of note, Paul's vote in the largest city in the state averaged way above normal. If Paul can pull down huge numbers in Fargo, it should provide a perfect safety cushion in case something goes wrong elsewhere. Fairly interesting that he actually did below average in the smallest of the 'big 4' while placing above average in the largest of the 'big 4'.


What to expect this time


I stated in the Alaska post that if Paul couldnt win in Alaska, where could he win.....well the answer is here. Literally the perfect storm for our good Dr.

-low turnout caucus
-northern, lowly populated state
-good support in 2008
-good donations.


To say that Paul is leading in donations would be the understatement of the year. Paul is the titanic iceberg to the Republican ship in terms of donations. He's crushing everyone.

I wont post the usual maps, just look at the total 2011 donations.

http://i.imgur.com/Vd0Ri.jpg


A few things jump out.

1) Paul is out-raising the democrats nearly 2-1

2) Michelle Bachmann is 2nd in republican donations...tells you what North Dakotans thought of the other 'flavor of the month' candidates

3) Our friend Willard is barely out-raising a guy who dropped out in August. This perhaps is the most amazing thing, not only is Romney loosing to Bachman, he's supposed to be the front runner...you know, the guy who raises a lot of money. Guess ND didnt get the message.

Let that sink in for a minute, and then come back and explain to me why Paul should not win the state.




Now, the one thing, the only thing that gets me nervous is Santorum. I DO NOT expect him to win in ND, but if any surprises came out Tuesday night, it would most likely be in his favor. Santorum dominated the counties just across the border in MN, and I know its weeks later, but if one thing is going against Paul, its that Santorum won nearly 50% from the state next door. But again, Santorum is on the down swing, and I dont expect him to pull any miracles like he did that night.


So, to summarize the past couple of posts I made.

I expect Ron to WIN:

-AK
-ND

I expect Ron to place a solid, if not close second in:

-VT
-ID



Thank you all for reading and the kind, words. I will try to continue this sort of thing going forward, you have been a great and patient audience.

[fez2008]

Andrew1229669, Any specific polling/demographic reasons for your predictions? Curious.

Policy Reader, Totally agree with your opinion of Intrade. It is simply best guesses of very imperfect information. My only point is that it is the only (very imperfect) data point of Alaska that I have seen.

Not polling information but this is a good data point: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?360378-Fundraising-vs-votes-for-Dr.-Paul-by-state

[andrew1229649]

My predictions are basically based on fundraising. Since the fundraising is the most accurate way to predict the outcome of these races. It is usually within 3% look at this thread http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?360378-Fundraising-vs-votes-for-Dr.-Paul-by-state&highlight=fundraising . I just went to the FEC website and broke it down a little bit more with a calculator.

[CTRattlesnake]

Basically, if Ron cant win in ND or AK, he is not going to win a state.

[enrique]

First, thanks for the maps and analysis. Fun to look at while my wife sleeps away her strep throat. The less time I spend with her right now, probably the better. ;)

Second, does anyone know what the real delegate count was for ND in 2008? You know, we're obsessed with delegates and winning caucuses after all the dust settles and straw polls have left town. I think your delegate numbers were probably the estimated delegate projections that we know aren't ultimately accurate. Anyone know what the real counts were? Anyone from ND back then on this forum or are you all busy drilling for oil?

[PolicyReader]

Andrew1229669, Any specific polling/demographic reasons for your predictions? Curious.

Policy Reader, Totally agree with your opinion of Intrade. It is simply best guesses of very imperfect information. My only point is that it is the only (very imperfect) data point of Alaska that I have seen.
Yeah I totally agree with you there, I'm not even saying their methodology is bad per se just that it (like most of the poll) was built to assess a markedly different beast that what we have this time round.

You are correct tho the data is all pretty dicey this time and I certainly concur that it's a valid thing to keep in mind. I guess my sense is that end of the day the more of a data hound you are the more useful the polls/Intrade et al are, but the less of a stats junkie the more likely one becomes to 'read them straight' and thus the more misleading they become.

[CTRattlesnake]

First, thanks for the maps and analysis. Fun to look at while my wife sleeps away her strep throat. The less time I spend with her right now, probably the better. ;)

Second, does anyone know what the real delegate count was for ND in 2008? You know, we're obsessed with delegates and winning caucuses after all the dust settles and straw polls have left town. I think your delegate numbers were probably the estimated delegate projections that we know aren't ultimately accurate. Anyone know what the real counts were? Anyone from ND back then on this forum or are you all busy drilling for oil?

8-mitt
5-ron
5-mccain
5-huck

[andrew1229649]

CTRattlesnake is right, don't win ND or AK and we ain't winning a state. I feel that we have a real chance at walking away with 4 states tomorrow. Those states being North Dakota, Alaska, Vermont, Idaho. I would bet on North Dakota and Alaska. Give me a 2:1 bet on Vermont and Idaho and I would bet you on them too.

I know CT hasn't talked about Virginia yet but I really think we could pull some magic there. Most will say that we poll like crap there but the other 2 guys are still in the race and I'm sure their people either won't show up or they will vote for Paul to help their guy.

Best case scenario Paul wins: 4-5
North Dakota
Alaska
Idaho
Vermont
*Virginia
Second place in: 2
Massachusetts
Virginia(by default)
P.S. keep an eye on Kansas(edit: they vote on 3/10). CT I would love to hear your analysis on Kansas.

[CTRattlesnake]

CTRattlesnake is right, don't win ND or AK and we ain't winning a state. I feel that we have a real chance at walking away with 4 states tomorrow. Those states being North Dakota, Alaska, Vermont, Idaho. I would bet on North Dakota and Alaska. Give me a 2:1 bet on Vermont and Idaho and I would bet you on them too.

I know CT hasn't talked about Virginia yet but I really think we could pull some magic there. Most will say that we poll like crap there but the other 2 guys are still in the race and I'm sure their people either won't show up or they will vote for Paul to help their guy.

Best case scenario Paul wins: 4-5
North Dakota
Alaska
Idaho
Vermont
*Kansas
Second place in: 2-3
Kansas
Massachusetts
Virginia(by default)
P.S. keep an eye on Kansas. CT I would love to hear you analysis on Kansas.

Kansas votes later. But i will do a thing on it

If you go back and read my VT and ID posts, you'll see why im skeptical about winning them

[RonRules]

I love to see this stat:

Paul urban vote: 21.03%
Paul rural vote: 21.50%

Puts the shame the trolls on the flipper thread making the claim that Ron does not do well in urban areas. Ron is everywhere: Midwest, east, west, central south. The only weakness is the southeast.

[CTRattlesnake]

I love to see this stat:

Paul urban vote: 21.03%
Paul rural vote: 21.50%

Puts the shame the trolls on the flipper thread making the claim that Ron does not do well in urban areas. Ron is everywhere: Midwest, east, west, central south. The only weakness is the southeast.

Its really hard to pin down where ron does well.

His best counties are usually random rural counties...and his worst counties are usually random rural counties.

He seems to get second in the big cities a lot

[Keith and stuff]

I love to see this stat:

Paul urban vote: 21.03%
Paul rural vote: 21.50%

Puts the shame the trolls on the flipper thread making the claim that Ron does not do well in urban areas.

I don't beleive in this vote flipping stuff. However, those numbers are from 2008, not 2012. Hopefully Ron Paul gets 50%, 50% this time around in ND, though :D



Ron is everywhere: Midwest, east, west, central south. The only weakness is the southeast.

It seems to be the South (southern states) in general. I doubt he will do well in OK and he did poorly in AZ and MO. The South seems to be the most hawkish part of the US. The Republicans tend to be more moderate/libertarian in New England and the Northwest and that tends to help Romney and Paul.

[RonRules]

"CTRattlesnake is right, don't win ND or AK and we ain't winning a state."

I have a lot of confidence in Montana, particularly if we win ND or AK.

[andrew1229649]

If you put the amout of money raised in the green and yellow places in seperate equations...then figure out who raised what based on percentage this is what you get. I don't know if this has worked for other states but when you factor the whole state fundrasing % to total vote % it is always within an average of about 3% so here we go. We can compare this with tomorrows turn out. Now just because Ron seems to edge out Romney in my illistration, you would need to further factor in where the populous areas are and what kind of voter turn out there will be. http://img806.imageshack.us/img806/8559/vermont2.png

[alucard13mmfmj]

i hope we have plenty of observers to make sure no shady crap goes on or it gets reported. our biggest enemy right now are "accidents" in the voting process.

[PolicyReader]

If you put the amout of money raised in the green and yellow places in seperate equations...then figure out who raised what based on percentage this is what you get. I don't know if this has worked for other states but when you factor the whole state fundrasing % to total vote % it is always within an average of about 3% so here we go. We can compare this with tomorrows turn out. Now just because Ron seems to edge out Romney in my illistration, you would need to further factor in where the populous areas are and what kind of voter turn out there will be. http://img806.imageshack.us/img806/8559/vermont2.png

This will be interesting to watch.

[Xenophage]

I share your frustration with the lack of data in AK, it annoys a stats junkie like me to no end :D

To address your point, McCain was the establishment candidate in 2008, Romney was the conservative....look where the two ended up. AK is not an establishment state at all, if you look at the dynamics of the 08 race, you'll find that Romney should actually come in last this time around, but we both know that wont happen. I have visited the state and the lifestyle is very different from the lower 48. While they still may watch Fox, they're is a much more noticeable libertarian streak. They dont call it the last frontier for nothing.

I'd put the odds at about 50/50 for a win in AK, again because of the lack of data, and the fact that Romney may still have a good presence there. Time will tell

As an Alaskan who actually went to the 2008 state convention as a Ron Paul delegate (I live in Oregon these days), I can tell you a few things: Romney's campaign is very strong in Alaska, and he's favored heavily by the GOP insiders there, and they are extremely hostile to Ron Paulians. Countering that is one of the most active and energetic grassroots organizations Ron Paul has in the entire country.

I have a lot of faith in my friends and family in Alaska. Their challenge is no easier than anyone else's, but I know they'll make the entire country proud tomorrow, even if we don't win outright.

[MisterTickle]

If only we had Iowa, Maine, and Washington under our belt..

[CTRattlesnake]

As an Alaskan who actually went to the 2008 state convention as a Ron Paul delegate (I live in Oregon these days), I can tell you a few things: Romney's campaign is very strong in Alaska, and he's favored heavily by the GOP insiders there, and they are extremely hostile to Ron Paulians. Countering that is one of the most active and energetic grassroots organizations Ron Paul has in the entire country.

I have a lot of faith in my friends and family in Alaska. Their challenge is no easier than anyone else's, but I know they'll make the entire country proud tomorrow, even if we don't win outright.

I share your optimism. To your first point, lets be real with ourselves, this is the nature of every state thats held elections so far. It's just something we have to deal with.

[PolicyReader]

I share your optimism. To your first point, lets be real with ourselves, this is the nature of every state thats held elections so far. It's just something we have to deal with.

This is true. Freedom is popular, but not among the establishment or Status Quo types.


On a different note, voter turnout so far today seems pretty slim (tho of course there are states which haven't even started yet and a long time to go in those that have)