Possible Delegate Counts So Far

[opinionatedfool]

I posted this in another thread, but since I took some time to put it together I'm posting it in a new thread so it gets more views. Feel free to correct my estimates if I'm getting some of the state rules wrong.

If you read this PLEASE KEEP IT BUMPED UP! As many people as possible need to see this!


What is this talk?

I keep hearing it over and over and it still makes no sense.

The people vote. Delegates are assigned according how people voted.


In some states, yes, that is true. In others that's a bunch of crap. We are probably getting most of the delegates from IA, MN, CO, MA, and WA. In NV, they can vote to unbind the delegates are the state convention, so there is a possibility he could get most of those as well. There is also a strong possibility that he could pick up quite a few from WY.

In IA there are 28 possible delegates. It sounds like the organization was good, so we may get 20 out of there.

In NH, there are 10 possible BOUND delegates, Ron Paul got 3. Huntsman got one. Since he dropped out that delegate is UNBOUND. We may get that one. NH is has bound delegates so for the first round we won't have any luck getting others until additional rounds.

In SC, we didn't get any delegates. Grinch got 23 BOUND delegates. If Grinch drops out soon they become UNBOUND. If Ron Paul supporters are organized they could end up picking up a lot of them.

In FL, we didn't get any and probably wont unless this goes to a brokered convention and at some point they become UNBOUND.

In NV, we got 5 BOUND delegates, but most of the delegates that got selected are Ron Paul supporters. There is a possibility that these selected delegates can vote to change the rules at the state convention to UNBIND all delegates. In this case Ron Paul could pick up most of the delegates. NV has 28 BOUND delegates. If they become UNBOUND at the state convention, we would probably have at least 15 of them.

In CO, it sounds like we got about 50% of the UNBOUND delegates. So we'll probably have 18 of the 36. If Santy drops out, we could get a few more.

In MN, is sounds like we got over 75% of the delegates. So we'll probably get 30 of the 40 UNBOUND delegates.

In Maine, we'll probably get 75% of the delegates. So we'll probably get 18 of the 24 UNBOUND delegates.

AZ is winner take all with 29 bound delegates. We probably won't get any as Romney won the state, unless this goes to a brokered convention and the delegates become UNBOUND. In this case we may get some of them if RP supporters are organized. (UPDATE: I'm told AZ delegates technically aren't bound, so we may get some of them)

In MI, we didn't get any delegates, but there is the possibility that we could pick up the delegates that become UNBOUND if Santy drops out. Santy got 14 delegates. Some of them could go to RP. If it goes to a brokered convention RP could even get some of Romney's.

In WY, Ron Paul got at least 6 of the 29 possible. However, since this is a state with UNBOUND delegates Ron Paul will probably get more than that. Let's say he get's almost half of them, or 14.

In WA, there are 40 UNBOUND delegates. Based on ground reports, Ron Paul will probably get most of the delegates. Let's say he gets 25.

So if no one drops out, IA (20) + NH (3) + SC (0) + FL (0) + NV(15) + CO(18) + MN(30) + ME(18) + MI (0) + AZ(0) + WY(14) + WA(25) = 143

If BOTH Grinch and Santy drop out the delegate scenario could look something like this, assuming Ron Paul supporters were organized in becoming delegates (delegates would become UNBOUND when the candidate they are bound to drops out):

IA (20) + NH (3) + SC (15/23) + FL (0) + NV(20) + CO(18) + MN(30) + ME(18) + MI (10) + AZ(0) + WY(14) + WA(25) = 173

Of course these are just estimates, we won't know for sure until the delegate selection process is complete. If this goes to a brokered convention and all delegates become UNBOUND, we could get a lot of Romney's delegates too.

I'm really confused about why people don't understand how the delegates work. What is it that is causing the confusion?

Here is a good video (from late January, but it still has valid info) that explains the delegate process/situation.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=y5RKleqMjuE

Here is another video of Doug Wead (Ron Paul's campaign strategist) talking about the delegate strategy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=9x28_I9oIVg

[opinionatedfool]

Please help me change the defeatist attitude on this forum by spreading the idea that we are winning on delegate counts. As you can see I posted a link in my signature so people would see it every time I post. A lot of the reason we are losing the popular vote is because supporters have adopted a pessimistic attitude. This type of attitude certainly doesn't help us win anything. If you understand the strategy, please post something in your signature that helps explain the strategy and the actual delegate counts. That way every time you post people will have an opportunity to understand the strategy.

[PolicyReader]

This Post is being re-purposed as an informational resource:
*Mathematical Case for Brokered Convention; How Ron Paul Can Throw a Big Wrench Into Romney's Campaign (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?363868-Mish-quot-Brokered-convention...is-increasingly-likely.-quot&highlight=brokered+convention)
*"Bound" delegates are a MYTH - RP takes it ROUND 1 (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?365783-quot-Bound-quot-delegates-are-a-MYTH-RP-takes-it-ROUND-1)
*The Delegate Race: "Brokered" vs. "Open" Conventions (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?363677-The-Delegate-Race-quot-Brokered-quot-vs.-quot-Open-quot-Conventions&highlight=brokered+convention)
*List of when county/district/state conventions take place (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?364546-Do-we-have-a-list-of-when-county-district-state-conventions-take-place)
*The Myth: Must win 5 States (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?364890-The-Myth-Must-win-5-States)
*Fundraising% vs votes % for Dr. Paul by state (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?360378-Fundraising-vs-votes-for-Dr.-Paul-by-state)
*Paul supporter figures out the Delegate Strategy for himself (with linked article) (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?364911-If-we-fill-the-conventions-in-Georgia-and-Newt-wins-and-then-drops-out...)
*Delegate Stories (A compendium of shared RP delegate experiences) (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?365015-Delegate-Stories-%28A-compendium-of-shared-RP-delegate-experiences%29&p=4246748#post4246748)

[PolicyReader]

This Post is being re-purposed as a delegate activist resource:
*Grand Strategy: How Ron Paul Can (Still) Win the Nomination (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?364264-Grand-Strategy-How-Ron-Paul-Can-%28Still%29-Win-the-Nomination)
*Analysis of WA GOTV and Robopolling (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?364886-Analysis-of-WA-GOTV-and-Robopolling&p=4244560#post4244560)
*Ron Paul Volunteer (http://www.ronpaulvolunteer.com/)

[ProBlue33]

Excellent post, Mitt only has 5% of hard delegates right now.
Think about that.

[JasonM]

I think delegates get confusing because (A) the term is often used (esp in the news etc) interchangeably for local, state, national etc
(B) The myth of American Democracy. What I mean is that there are people who don't know about the electoral collage either, or more to the point that the average understanding is whoever gets the most votes wins and that "votes" in that context means Popular (straw) votes.
Someone who's studied the system knows that be it primary or general this isn't the actuality of how things work.
Caucus states show a bit more of how it happens but even in states with primaries the delegate selection is often more or less like a caucus and that's not even touching the unbound delegate concept.
In short (oops too late) I think that there is a common misconception that popular vote translates directly into political office and as long as someone holds that misconception they'll have a hard time understanding or accepting the delegate process because it flies in the face of that very understanding.

of course I'm tired and might be rambling :p

I totally agree. I tried explaining the delegate process to my coworkers (i'm in the military), and all I get are blank looks and people quickly changing the subject to something more "interesting" such as how they will vote for Newt because he's the "moon base guy".

Granted, these guys are under 25 years old and have no conception of politics whatsoever.

Even one ron paul supporter says she refuses to get involved in the Republican party, never realizing that the only path to change involves joining a movement to fundamentally change the structure of the Republican party. :(

[JasonM]

My major question is, when are the first delegate selections actually going to happen?

[Keith and stuff]

My major question is, when are the first delegate selections actually going to happen?

They have already happened. For example, the delegates were handpicked by the campaigns in NH, even before the election.

[PolicyReader]

From 1836 on this subject:

I had to spend quite a while typing just the delegate info out into a forum-friendly format from information available. But it is extremely interesting and sheds a light on how we could win the nomination. We have to be working hard towards this goal, because looking at these numbers, it's hard to say it isn't possible.

Below the delegate information is some analysis of how things could pan out if we play our cards right. It's just a prediction, and a few scenarios to be mindful of. Remember, we are in this thing to win.

Primary Schedule and Delegates
Rules affecting delegates:

Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada may begin their delegate selection primaries, caucuses, and conventions on Wednesday 1 February 2012. All other jurisdictions may begin their processes on the Tuesday 6 March 2012. Violating this directive results in 50% of the delegates to the national convention being stripped. Iowa's, Colorado's, Washington's, Minnesota's, and Maine's delegates are not tied to their caucus dates, so these states including Iowa will not suffer a 50% penalty despite holding caucuses before said dates.

ALL nominating states allocating delegates based on statewide vote prior to April 1, 2012 must allocate delegates PROPORTIONALLY.

DELEGATE TOTALS INCLUDES EFFECTS OF THE PENALTY
CAUCUS STATES ARE DENOTED AS SUCH
TOTAL DELEGATES AFTER PENALTIES: 2,287
PLEDGED DELEGATES: 1,784
UNPLEDGED DELEGATES: 503

DATE -------- STATE ---------- DELEGATES ----- # PLEDGED/UNPLEDGED
Jan 3 -------------- Iowa ---------- 28 delegates (caucus) -------- 28/0
Jan 10 --- New Hampshire ------ 12 delegates ------------------- 12/0
Jan 21 --- South Carolina -------- 25 delegates ------------------- 25/0
Jan 31 --------- Florida ------------ 50 delegates ------------------- 50/0
Late Jan ---- Louisiana ------------ 46 delegates ------------------ 18/28*
Feb 4 ---------- Nevada ----------- 28 delegates (caucus) --------- 25/3
Feb 4-11 ------ Maine ------------- 24 delegates (caucus) --------- 0/24
Feb 7 ---------- Colorado ---------- 36 delegates (caucus) --------- 36/0
Feb 7 ---------- Minnesota --------- 40 delegates (caucus) --------- 0/40
Feb 28 --------- Michigan ----------- 30 delegates ------------------- 30/0
Feb 28 --------- Arizona ------------ 29 delegates -------------------- 29/0
Mar 3 -------Washington ----------- 43 delegates (caucus) --------- 23/20
Mar 6 ------- Alaska ---------------- 27 delegates (caucus) --------- 24/3
Mar 6 ------- Georgia --------------- 76 delegates -------------------- 76/0
Mar 6 -------- Idaho ----------------- 32 delegates (caucus) --------- 32/0
Mar 6 -------Massachusetts -------- 41 delegates -------------------- 38/3
Mar 6 ------- North Dakota -------- 28 delegates (caucus) --------- 0/28
Mar 6 --------- Ohio ---------------- 66 delegates ---------------------- 0/66
Mar 6 -------Oklahoma ------------ 43 delegates --------------------- 40/3
Mar 6 ------- Tennessee ------------ 58 delegates --------------------- 55/3
Mar 6 ------- Vermont ------------- 17 delegates ---------------------- 17/0
Mar 6 -------- Virginia ------------- 50 delegates ---------------------- 50/0
Mar 6-10 ----- Wyoming ---------- 29 delegates (caucus) ----------- 0/29
Mar 10 --------- Kansas ----------- 40 delegates (caucus) ------------ 40/0
Mar 10 --- U.S. Virgin Islands --- 9 delegates (caucus) ------------- 6/3
Mar 13 ------- Alabama ----------- 50 delegates ----------------------- 47/3
Mar 13 ------- Hawaii ------------- 20 delegates (caucus) ------------ 17/3
Mar 13 ----- Mississippi ---------- 39 delegates ----------------------- 36/3
Mar 17 ------- Missouri ----------- 52 delegates (caucus) ------------ 49/3
Mar 20 ------- Illinois ------------- 69 delegates ----------------------- 56/13
Apr 3 ---------- Maryland --------- 37 delegates ----------------------- 37/0
Apr 3 ------- Texas ----------------- 155 delegates -------------------- 152/3
Apr 3 ------ Washington, D.C. --- 19 delegates ----------------------- 16/3
Apr 3 -------- Wisconsin ---------- 42 delegates ----------------------- 42/0
Apr 24 ------- Connecticut -------- 28 delegates ----------------------- 25/3
Apr 24 ------- Delaware ----------- 17 delegates ----------------------- 17/0
Apr 24 ------- New York ----------- 95 delegates ---------------------- 81/14
Apr 24 ------- Pennsylvania ------- 72 delegates ---------------------- 0/72
Apr 24 ------- Rhode Island ------- 19 delegates ---------------------- 16/3
May 8 -------- Indiana -------------- 46 delegates ---------------------- 27/19
May 8 ------ North Carolina ------- 55 delegates ---------------------- 55/0
May 8 ------- West Virginia -------- 31 delegates ---------------------- 28/3
May 15 -------- Nebraska ----------- 35 delegates ---------------------- 32/3
May 15 -------- Oregon ------------- 29 delegates ---------------------- 26/3
May 22 --------- Arkansas ---------- 36 delegates ---------------------- 33/3
May 22 --------- Kentucky ---------- 45 delegates --------------------- 42/3
June 5 ----------- California --------- 172 delegates -------------------- 169/3
June 5 ----------- Montana ----------- 26 delegates ---------------------- 0/26
June 5 ----------- New Jersey -------- 50 delegates ---------------------- 50/0
June 5 --------- South Dakota ------- 28 delegates ---------------------- 25/3
June 26 ----------- Utah --------------- 40 delegates --------------------- 40/0
TO BE ANNOUNCED:
American Samoa --------------- 9 delegates
Guam ---------------------------- 9 delegates
Northern Mariana Islands ----- 9 delegates
Puerto Rico --------------------- 23 delegates

Notes:
* Louisiana has a somewhat confusing Caucus-then-Primary process to select delegates, the caucus being some as-yet-announced time in late January and the primary being on March 24. Unpledged delegates may be allocated to a candidate on the basis of the primary vote if the candidate receive more than 25% of the vote in the primary on Mar. 24, otherwise they are unpledged. (Republican Party of Louisiana, State Convention Rule 20b (http://lagop.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/LAGOP-2012-Caucus-and-Convention-Rules.pdf))

EDITED 12/22: Texas and Ohio Primary Date Changes Included

Open Primaries/Caucuses
(Where Independents and Democrats Can Vote)

Open primaries and caucuses offer us the best opportunity to take advantage of Ron Paul's popularity with independent voters. Below is the list of open primaries and caucuses, to be updated as necessary.

Alabama
Arkansas
Georgia
Hawaii (caucus)
Idaho (caucus)
Indiana
Iowa* (caucus)
Massachusetts**
Michigan
Minnesota (caucus)
Mississippi
Missouri (caucus)
New Hampshire
North Dakota (caucus)
Ohio***
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia
Washington (caucus)
Wisconsin

*Iowa caucus open to anyone who wants to register Republican at the caucus location
**Massachusetts primary open to unaffiliated voters, not Democrats
***Ohio primary allows voter to change registration at the polling place by completing a statement confirming the change in his/her political party affiliation (source (http://www.sos.state.oh.us/SOS/elections/voterInformation/procedures.aspx))

18 Key States for Ron Paul Getting Delegates
Along with some predictions of how we might realistically be able to fare. I am not excluding Nevada or Iowa because they are not important. But in terms of delegate counts, they won't hold a candle to many others. Iowa and Nevada will have already occurred, and for any of the following to be relevant, we have to do fairly well in the earliest states. That isn't what this analysis is fundamentally about. We all know that to win the nomination, we have to do well in January.

Maine - Caucus state. At this point in the process, early February, you'd expect there to be no more than three candidates. Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and someone else. Given that, it is reasonable to expect that Ron Paul would be able to win a high percentage (perhaps as high as 50%+) in the low-turnout Maine caucus. But it gets more interesting. ALL of the 24 Maine delegates are UNPLEDGED. Therefore, if Ron Paul supporters are well organized, we might get even more than that – perhaps a solid majority of these delegates. At this early point, we could expect perhaps 12 delegates out of Maine.

Colorado - Caucus state. Although all delegates here are pledged, there are 36 of them. Even if we only get 33%, that is 12 delegates. But again, the caucus format is good for us. We can perhaps hope for as many as half, or 18.

Minnesota - Caucus state, 40 delegates and all of them UNPLEDGED. This state is critical, and that's doubtless why the Ron Paul campaign set up an office there. If good organization exists, we could reap the benefits of this poorly-attended caucus. We might get as many as 30 delegates out of here. Huge state, the most important for us before Super Tuesday

Washington - Caucus state. 43 delegates, 20 unpledged. That means that we can expect to do very well anyway, in addition to the added bonus of organization turning out some extra numbers of unpledged delegates through the party process. Let's say 25 delegates from here.

Alaska - Low turnout caucus state, on Super Tuesday. Critical win if we are getting the nomination. 27 delegates, 24 pledged, and we can feel confident to win most of them. Let's say 15 delegates here.

Georgia - Super Tuesday Primary, 76 pledged delegates. Unlikely we would win here, especially if either Newt or Cain is still in it (both from Georgia). But in a three way race, we might get 15 delegates.

Idaho - Caucus state, Super Tuesday, 32 pledged delegates. Same assumptions apply... we should be able to pull off half. 16 delegates at minimum.

North Dakota - Caucus state, Super Tuesday, 28 UNPLEDGED delegates. Another important state for us. We can hope to get a large number of delegates via strong organization, perhaps as many as 20.

Texas - Second biggest state, primary. Mitt unpopular here. Depending on who is left, Ron could do well. Regardless, this is an important state. Almost all delegates are pledged of the 155 total. We ought to be able to get 50 delegates.

Wyoming - Caucus state, all 29 unpledged, right after Super Tuesday. We could pull off 20 delegates here.

Kansas - Caucus state, 40 pledged delegates. We could get half, 20 delegates.

Missouri - Biggest caucus state, Mar 17. 52 delegates. At this point in the process, if there are still 3 candidates, we should be able to get around half of the delegates, 26.

Illinois - Primary state, Mar. 20. 56 pledged plus 13 unpledged. If we can get a majority of the unpledged, and do decently well in the primary, we could leave with at least 20 delegates.

Louisiana - Caucus-then-primary state, caucus being in late January, primary Mar 24. 46 delegates, 28 unpledged. Strong organization could yield a majority of the unpledged, in addition to whatever showing in the primary. Louisiana has complicated rules for delegate allocation which can be seen in the footnote below the delegate schedule. However, one would expect our strong organization to pull off a good showing overall. We should hope for 25 here.

New York - Primary state, Apr. 24, which is the second big primary day on the schedule. 81 pledged plus 14 unpledged. A decent showing and good organization might get us as many as 35 delegates. A realistic scenario for that would be to get 31% of the primary vote (25 delegates) and 10 of the 14 unpledged.

Pennsylvania - Primary, Apr. 24. Believe it or not, Pennsylvania could end up being a top priority as the nomination wears on. That's because although this is a primary state, ALL 72 of its delegates are UNPLEDGED. With strong organization, we might get as many as half of them, or even more. Let's say 36 delegates.

California - Primary, June 5. If we are going to win this thing, it will come down to the wire. California has 172 delegates, almost all of which are pledged. But we may show well here. Regardless, we can at least expect 50 delegates, whether it is a two or a three man race at this point.

Ohio - Primary, Mar 6. All 66 delegates are unpledged, making this a top organizational priority if we are going to win. With strong organization, we could win at least half through the process, so let's say 33.

Remember the delegate totals:
TOTAL DELEGATES AFTER PENALTIES: 2,287
PLEDGED DELEGATES: 1,784
UNPLEDGED DELEGATES: 503

NEEDED TO WIN THE NOMINATION: 1,144

The 18 States that add up
If Ron Paul were to do as well as I posit in these 18 key states, a realistic scenario if the campaign goes fairly well, then he picks up 466 delegates, or 40.7% of the total he needs to win the nomination. That may seem like a ridiculous figure, but it actually isn't: given our strong organizational and hard support base advantages, it is realistic if the nomination is going fairly well. It doesn't by any means assume that we are dominating. Actually, this scenario only gives Ron Paul 42.3% of the delegates from these 18 states. Given the strengths of the organization and support, I think that's wholly realistic.

Given these 18 states: Ron Paul has 466 delegates

In order to win the nomination, Ron Paul then needs 678 more delegates. Where do they come from?

The Other Primaries

There are 1,185 delegates left in the pool of delegates. 678 is a staggering 61.5% of that figure. It is extremely unlikely that Ron Paul will do that well in the remaining states, almost all of which are primaries. How well might he do?

If we give Ron Paul an average 30% of the vote, which is very realistic for these primary states in a three way race and certainly modest in a two-way race, then he picks up 355 additional delegates. A wild card is how delegates are allocated, which isn't by any means decided. But for the purposes of analysis here, it is reasonable to assume they are allocated proportionally (and a number of them are). Even if it is winner-take-all, the assumption is not unrealistic, because you would figure that with around 30% of the primary votes Ron Paul would be winning some of those states, even if not many.

Given 30% of the vote in the other contests: Ron Paul then has 821 delegates

That total still leaves us 323 delegates short. Where will those delegates come from?

One could certainly say, "well, we just do better than what you are saying we will do." Okay, that's one scenario. It is certainly possible that in the caucus states, we could do better. But what if we don't? Remember, I'm assuming that Ron is only able to compete in most of these states, but by no means to win. I'm assuming that caucus states are our best bet and that even there, we aren't completely dominating. This is not intended to be an "unrealistic" scenario by any means.

The Remaining Delegates

The remaining delegates will come from other candidates that drop out of the race. This is because when a candidate has won pledged delegates, those candidates become unpledged and free to vote for whomever they choose at the convention after their candidate drops out and releases them. That candidate may not officially release his or her delegates until the convention, or it may be the moment they drop out. But most likely, unless the candidate held a very large number of delegates that could prevail in a brokered convention (more on that in a moment), they will release their delegates.

My assumptions to this point have been that this will be a three-way-race after South Carolina headed to Super Tuesday, and that after that, possibly only a two-way race between Ron Paul and some frontrunner X. It may in fact be that the three-way race goes all the way through the nomination battle to the convention, or that it goes through the April 24 primaries. Let's take a look at three possible scenarios.

NOTE: Each of these scenarios assumes that there are at least 4 candidates through to the Florida primary. I think that is very realistic. NONE of these scenarios do not work if you replace "third candidate x" with "third and fourth candidates" because a 3rd and fourth candidate could easily take the same number of delegates and then release them as I assume a third to.

Scenario 1: Three Way Race Through Super Tuesday
If a three way race persists through Super Tuesday, then by its very nature you would expect a third candidate to take around a third of the votes. Perhaps less, perhaps more. I think it is entirely reasonable that this would be the case, however, given that through Florida, you will have more than three candidates and in the case of Super Tuesday, a likely third candidate would have a serious shot of winning Georgia over Romney and Paul (Cain or Gingrich).

The primaries/caucuses from Jan 3 to Mar 6 have a total of 842 delegates. When looking at the 18 states, we gave Ron Paul only 201 of the 846 delegates in these states, because we didn't include all of the states and the ones we did, we assumed as realistically as possible.

If a third candidate/other candidates who drop out before Super Tuesday can be assigned 30% of the total delegates from these states, which is realistic, then we can say those other candidates have 253 delegates. That is not enough for Ron Paul to win the nomination, even if most of the unpledged delegates who had worked through the process were Ron Paul supporters. Giving Ron Paul a realistic half of these newly unpledged delegates only gets him to 127. Adding that to the aforementioned total of 821, and we are at 948, still 196 short of the 1,144 we need.

HOWEVER. If, at that point, the third candidate were to drop out, as this scenario implies, then we would likely fare better than 30% in the remaining states. The "key 18" of the remaining states only gave Ron Paul 265 delegates out of their total of 641, but that is out of the rest of the entirety of the states remaining, which is out of a total of 1445.

Therefore, 1445-641 = 804 delegates up for grabs in those remaining contests not spelled out in the "key 18" analysis.

We previously gave Ron Paul 30% of that total, which equates to 241 delegates out of the 804.

What happens if Ron Paul is able to garner 40% of the total? In that case, he wins an additional 80 delegates, putting him at a total delegate count of 1028. But that's still short of 1,144.

What if he garners half? Then he gains another 160 delegates, a total of 402 out of the 804, and is at 1,108. STILL short of 1,144. In order for Ron Paul to win under this scenario, given our 18-state predictions and the reality of the race, he would need to get another 196 delegates, or a total of 54.4% of the delegates remaining.

I do not see that as likely against Romney. Therefore, we have to bet that under this scenario of a three-way-race through Super Tuesday, Ron Paul would need to do fairly well in the remaining primaries (around 40% of the primaries, at least) and have a larger number of the unpledged released delegates.


Scenario 2: Three Way Race Through Apr. 24

The next big primary date after Super Tuesday is April 24. it includes New York and Pennsylvania, among others. What happens if there is a three-way race through then? There are only 709 delegates left after April 24, so this is about two-thirds of the way through.

If the third candidate (plus others) are again assumed to get 30% of the states through April 24, then that is out of 1578 delegates = 473 delegates. Hey, now we're talking serious numbers.

For the primaries through April 24, we assumed Ron Paul would get in the 18 key states covered up until then (that is, every key state but California and Ohio, both of which vote later) 383 delegates out of 864 total delegates in those states.

We also assumed 30% of the vote in the other states, which are composed of 714 delegates (1578-864key=714), so through April 24 we assume Ron Paul has 214 from those states.


If the third candidate drops out after Apr. 24, given organizational effort to achieve half their unpledged delegates, that is 237 delegates. Adding that to our previous figure derived from all the primaries of 821, we get 1058. Much closer than before.

If Ron Paul outperforms in the remaining states, and gets a few more unpledged delegates, or performs better in the previous contests, it becomes more reasonable to say he gets to 1144 without a hitch. Because at that point, we are only 86 short.


Scenario 3: Brokered Convention

This one is tough. That is because it is hard to say whose delegates would go where.

A brokered convention means that we would have at least two candidates go into the convention with sizable pluralities but neither a majority, or perhaps three candidates do very well and have large numbers.

We could assume that if it were three candidates, it might be Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and either Gingrich or Cain or Perry. If Ron Paul does as well as we assumed him to do, he has 821 delegates through the process itself, with 30% of the vote in non-key-delegate states and 466 delegates from the others.

If Ron Paul goes into the convention with 821, or 35.9% of the delegates,

and Mitt Romney goes in with 880, or 38.4% of the delegates,

and Third Candidate (Perry/Cain/Romney) plus the others go in with 586, or 25.6% of the delegates,

then it really starts to get interesting. Remember, you need 1,144 to win.

At that point, someone has to give. Sometime or another. Several interesting things could occur, none of which could be easily predicted, and not all of which are positive. However, such is the nature of a brokered convention: it's dirty.

1. Third Candidate drops out, Ron Paul picks up a 323 of the released delegates, and wins.

2. Third Candidate drops out, Romney picks up 264 of the released delegates, and wins.

3. Romney drops out, Third candidate picks up vast majority of Romney's delegates plus other candidates'.

4. Romney drops out, Ron Paul picks up some of Romney's delegates (323 only, remember) plus others' and wins.

5. Balloting goes on and on until state party rules either release delegates or delegates change their minds and their votes. In this case, all hell breaks loose, but this is where organization really benefits Ron Paul. Because in reality, a number of "Romney delegates" can be Paul supporters who got through the process. Once their state rules release them at the national convention, they could vote for Ron Paul. However, if they are bound to vote for Romney, their votes go to him regardless.


Conclusion

Of course, none of this is set in stone. These numbers could end up being way off, and I hope Ron Paul does much better than these predictions.

However, I hope you'll take a few things away from this.

1. It is possible for Ron Paul to win given delegate numbers alone.
2. It is going to be hard for Ron Paul to win.
3. We have to do everything in our power to get this man elected, because he is the most liberty-minded candidate with a real chance of getting elected who has ever stood for election to the office of president in modern times. It is, indeed, possible. But only if we work for it.

Hopefully these numbers give you an idea of the daunting task we face, but a bit of optimism that with the right organization and amount of work, that it could be done.

Phew.

[JasonM]

They have already happened. For example, the delegates were handpicked by the campaigns in NH, even before the election.

And do we know the actual affiliations of the NH delegates who are pledged? And what about un-pledged?

Again, I'd love to believe we're winning in delegate counts, but I want to see some hard sources on this and not just cherry-picked counties where we completely dominated. Surely there is a top secret list of names that the campaign keeps somewhere. I don't want to know names, just numbers though.

[PolicyReader]

My major question is, when are the first delegate selections actually going to happen?
This Thread (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?364546-Do-we-have-a-list-of-when-county-district-state-conventions-take-place) has a PDF with all dates listed (and links to more details via The Green Papers ).

[JasonM]

This Thread (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?364546-Do-we-have-a-list-of-when-county-district-state-conventions-take-place) has a PDF with all dates listed (and links to more details via The Green Papers ).

That's awesome!!

https://docs.google.com/file/d/1aXRs9vE3jYRLSFAyoWy-YB5khF7YAa3aY40VaPqcEEJqdrSKokoTq5DKGSdR/edit

This link is a good resource.

But it doesn't completely answer my question. For example, for the winner-take-all states, for example, are the actual delegates chosen on the day of the primary with each campaign having their own loyalists ready if they win? If that's the case, then nothing we can do unless we got infiltrators in each campaign. But if not, then even the pledged delegates for other delegates can make a difference if it comes down to a brokered convention.

[PolicyReader]

And do we know the actual affiliations of the NH delegates who are pledged? And what about un-pledged?

Again, I'd love to believe we're winning in delegate counts, but I want to see some hard sources on this and not just cherry-picked counties where we completely dominated. Surely there is a top secret list of names that the campaign keeps somewhere. I don't want to know names, just numbers though.


The green papers are good but popular vote isn't where to look, those numbers don't really matter (aside from perception/donations/momentum angles, basically PR)
Hard Total
Romney 118 5.16%
Santorum 17 0.74%
Newt 29 1.27%
Paul 8 0.35%


Those are the delegates that have actually been assigned to the national convention as of now. Of the total needed 1,144 national delegates.
The rest are not yet confirmed because the delegates assigned are on a more local level and have to work their way up through 'elimination rounds' to the state conventions which will then assign national delegates. These delegates will vote for whom ever they personally choose come convention time.
This is where Paul has a strong showing, understanding the 'game' he's prepared people so that they can secure these slots. Classic example is Minnesota where Santo won the Popular (straw) vote but Paul had the strongest showing in taking local delegates (which are the start of that process to elect national ones).

Now the above is a broad and general description because rules are unique to each state but that's a framework for how the process goes.
Bluntly when it comes convention time those delegates to the national convention are the votes that pick the Nominee and what the popular vote is or was won't direct or alter that (tho some individuals may choose to be 'advised' by it when they vote).

Hence the article I linked, it describes a bit of the 'how' of Paul taking full advantage of how the system is set up.
Regardless of what any of us think about the legitimacy of that system it is the one that is in place right now and the Official Campaign is taking whatever advantages they can be afforded by the rules in play.

In short the majority of the delegates simply aren't assigned yet (I'm talking National Delegates here). Everything else is still in process which means nothing is certain however where there are a majority of Paul delegates (if they know ParlyPro / Robers Rules) they can parlay that advantage into potentially an even greater edge.
In 2008 we did well gathering delegates but it didn't turn into an advance for a number of reasons. 1st many (most?) of our delegates didn't know the rules of the game and got bounced for it, we've fixed that this time around. 2nd our majorities were more rare which again gets us bounced. 3rd the GOP frankly played dirty pool, but we've prepped for those tricks this time around. 4th more of our people are in positions of power within the GOP (this gives us both logistical support and extra delegates).

Anyone doing tallies at this point is guessing because there are no final numbers for the majority of delegates from states that have voted.
But these guesses are educated (in this thread) not wild or wishful, none of us are saying this is in the bag or this figures are certain. We're just saying that when best information shows us running (roughly) a strong Second going into Washington and likely stronger coming out of it, we don't want to see people losing heart over the part of the voting process which is come end of the day the more superficial part of the process.

[JasonM]

In short the majority of the delegates simply aren't assigned yet (I'm talking National Delegates here). Everything else is still in process which means nothing is certain however where there are a majority of Paul delegates (if they know ParlyPro / Robers Rules) they can parlay that advantage into potentially an even greater edge.
In 2008 we did well gathering delegates but it didn't turn into an advance for a number of reasons. 1st many (most?) of our delegates didn't know the rules of the game and got bounced for it, we've fixed that this time around. 2nd our majorities were more rare which again gets us bounced. 3rd the GOP frankly played dirty pool, but we've prepped for those tricks this time around. 4th more of our people are in positions of power within the GOP (this gives us both logistical support and extra delegates).

Anyone doing tallies at this point is guessing because there are no final numbers for the majority of delegates from states that have voted.
But these guesses are educated (in this thread) not wild or wishful, none of us are saying this is in the bag or this figures are certain. We're just saying that when best information shows us running (roughly) a strong Second going into Washington and likely stronger coming out of it, we don't want to see people losing heart over the part of the voting process which is come end of the day the more superficial part of the process.

Awesome!! Plus +Rep.

Would be good to be able to monitor this situation as it develops though. So, when it comes to district level and state level conventions, I'd like to know how things pan out for us at each level of this selection process. This means knowing how the district level caucuses in Missouri pan out so we can get an idea for the state convention, and so on.

[PolicyReader]

That's awesome!!

https://docs.google.com/file/d/1aXRs9vE3jYRLSFAyoWy-YB5khF7YAa3aY40VaPqcEEJqdrSKokoTq5DKGSdR/edit

This link is a good resource.

But it doesn't completely answer my question. For example, for the winner-take-all states, for example, are the actual delegates chosen on the day of the primary with each campaign having their own loyalists ready if they win? If that's the case, then nothing we can do unless we got infiltrators in each campaign. But if not, then even the pledged delegates for other delegates can make a difference if it comes down to a brokered convention.

It's a bit of a mixed bag, in theory there are some loyalist selections and AFAIK that's how it's supposed to work. However, frequently these slots go unfilled or unfilled until the last minute and so often it's just 'whoever stayed to sign up' and even then in many cases all the slots aren't filled (usually will be by convention time) at least on the more local level. This is why "strong ground game" gets thrown around so much because in many cases it isn't as if the Official Campaign has someone at each stage to select a delegate they have to rely on their local supporters to be involved and active.

My 'ballpark' for bound delegates is that if it goes brokered we could expect to pick up some that way but I'd expect we'd pick up more newly unbound delegates by making deals and being/looking the strongest as candidate.

The short answer is that it could happen as you describe but until the convention itself no one will actually know for sure if it has or has not and to what degree.
I'm sorry if this answer is a bit vague, the rules differ by state and so I'm painting with very broad strokes.

On that note if anyone wants to jump in and give more detail/information on this do feel free :D

[PolicyReader]

Awesome!! Plus +Rep.

Would be good to be able to monitor this situation as it develops though. So, when it comes to district level and state level conventions, I'd like to know how things pan out for us at each level of this selection process. This means knowing how the district level caucuses in Missouri pan out so we can get an idea for the state convention, and so on.

I believe the Official PCC has some things in place for doing this but they are keeping it buttoned down so that some of the 'shady tricks' of last election cycle aren't able to be perpetrated against Pauls delegates again. Assuming that my (lets say) "hunch" is correct about the OPCC having some line on this then when Paul says "we're second in the delegate count" he means it. (Note: I don't claim to have any certain inside knowledge, I just read way too much etc. but the things coming from the Paul camp match my math and research so I'm going with it ;) )

[opinionatedfool]

My major question is, when are the first delegate selections actually going to happen?

It depends on the state. Some are sooner than others, but we probably won't know for sure until June on some of them.

[opinionatedfool]

They have already happened. For example, the delegates were handpicked by the campaigns in NH, even before the election.

In some states. Each state is different. Some states have only selected PRECINCT delegates. The precinct delegates go through different steps in nominating county delegates, state delegates and finally the delegates that go to the national convention.

[opinionatedfool]

And do we know the actual affiliations of the NH delegates who are pledged? And what about un-pledged?

Again, I'd love to believe we're winning in delegate counts, but I want to see some hard sources on this and not just cherry-picked counties where we completely dominated. Surely there is a top secret list of names that the campaign keeps somewhere. I don't want to know names, just numbers though.

If you followed a lot of the grassroots reporting you would've seen some of the numbers coming in on election days. I don't think the campaign should share any of their information at this point.

[opinionatedfool]

This Thread (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?364546-Do-we-have-a-list-of-when-county-district-state-conventions-take-place) has a PDF with all dates listed (and links to more details via The Green Papers ).

The Green Papers is always getting things wrong. I don't trust the crap they put on there.

[sailingaway]

Awesome!! Plus +Rep.

Would be good to be able to monitor this situation as it develops though. So, when it comes to district level and state level conventions, I'd like to know how things pan out for us at each level of this selection process. This means knowing how the district level caucuses in Missouri pan out so we can get an idea for the state convention, and so on.

that is information we absolutely would NOT want to give out.

[mattdcw]

And do we know the actual affiliations of the NH delegates who are pledged? And what about un-pledged?

Again, I'd love to believe we're winning in delegate counts, but I want to see some hard sources on this and not just cherry-picked counties where we completely dominated. Surely there is a top secret list of names that the campaign keeps somewhere. I don't want to know names, just numbers though.

The names of the NH delegates are available on the NH Elections web site. Romney has 7, Paul 3, and Huntsman 2. Since Huntsman has dropped out, his 2 delegates are now unbound and free to vote for whom they want. Outside of those 2, NH has no other unpledged delegates, because their delegate count was cut in 1/2 by the RNC.

[tsai3904]

Since Huntsman has dropped out, his 2 delegates are now unbound and free to vote for whom they want.

Huntsman suspended his campaign and did not officially withdraw. Are his delegates unbound?

[PolicyReader]

The Green Papers is always getting things wrong. I don't trust the crap they put on there.

I haven't spent much time tracking counts in the last few years, was the best source I ran into so far. I'd love a more consistent one if you have a link :)

[JasonM]

The names of the NH delegates are available on the NH Elections web site. Romney has 7, Paul 3, and Huntsman 2. Since Huntsman has dropped out, his 2 delegates are now unbound and free to vote for whom they want. Outside of those 2, NH has no other unpledged delegates, because their delegate count was cut in 1/2 by the RNC.

And this is why we need to get our people as pledged delegates even if they're for the other campaigns. Those could have been 2 delegates for paul if we played this right, but if they were both huntsmen loyalists and follow the candidate then i guess they'll go to mitt romney. =/

[JasonM]

that is information we absolutely would NOT want to give out.

Why not? This sort of thing ought to be public knowledge. I mean if we get the delegates at the district or state level, and we get something about restricting presidential war powers on the state republican platform as well as opposing the raising of the debt ceiling and having a balanced federal budget, that would be a HUGE victory. That would give an idea of our influence.

[opinionatedfool]

I haven't spent much time tracking counts in the last few years, was the best source I ran into so far. I'd love a more consistent one if you have a link :)

I guess they are good at tracking the actual delegates that have been assigned, which is fine, but it doesn't give an accurate picture of delegate counts. Anyway, maybe it's not so bad.

[tsai3904]

And this is why we need to get our people as pledged delegates even if they're for the other campaigns. Those could have been 2 delegates for paul if we played this right, but if they were both huntsmen loyalists and follow the candidate then i guess they'll go to mitt romney. =/

In NH, each candidate submitted a list of delegates to the Secretary of State. It's highly unlikely any Ron Paul supporter could have made it onto Huntsman's lists of delegates.

[opinionatedfool]

In NH, each candidate submitted a list of delegates to the Secretary of State. It's highly unlikely any Ron Paul supporter could have made it onto Huntsman's lists of delegates.

Bummer that.

[PolicyReader]

I guess they are good at tracking the actual delegates that have been assigned, which is fine, but it doesn't give an accurate picture of delegate counts. Anyway, maybe it's not so bad.
Oh yeah I use it more for refs of dates and times, the soft count I tend to take with a grain (read: spoon full) of salt.

Also if anyone has threads that may belong in my first two posts let me know :)

[tslau]

What I don't understand is, how are the delegates decided in the primaries? I know most primaries assign delegates proportionally according to the popular vote, but how is it actually determined WHO these delegates are?

[opinionatedfool]

Bump for a moral boost

[ross11988]

What I don't understand is, how are the delegates decided in the primaries? I know most primaries assign delegates proportionally according to the popular vote, but how is it actually determined WHO these delegates are?

Usually you vote for delegates on the ballot at the primary, thats why its important to know who these delegates support.

[Jamesiv1]

From 1836 on this subject:

Primary Schedule and Delegates
Rules affecting delegates:

[snip huge but awesome post, ending with]

"Phew"

Indeed.

That's some complicated shite. I hope Ron has "Simplify the freakin' election process!!" on his Presidential To-Do list.

[rb3b3]

Ok this is an awesome thread because I know many of us are very upset over Washington and Ron Paul still not "winning one state yet" I would definitely believe we are very very very strong in the delegate count, and I'm very very happy about that!!! So my question to those of you who are in the know, with all the funny stuff going on in these election to date, how can we be sure that this funny business will not happen at the next level??? I really have no idea how this whole election process works, but I really need to know that we will not have to worry about funny stuff when it comes time at the next level of the election process. Can someone help me here??? Will it be harder for them to rig the process at the next level??? Thank you for this thread because it keeps my eye on the prize!!!! This should be a sticky so that the rest of Ron Paul supporters also keep their eye on the prize.. It is frustrating that we haven't won one beauty contest yet, but we should all keep in mind we are fighting a very very very ugly beast who will stop at nothing to make sure Ron does not get anywhere near the GOP nomination!! The more I look at it, the more I think the campaigns strategy is an EXCELLENT ONE!!!! Because I'm sure they are well aware of the funny business they are facing and they know ultimately how they can get around the funny stuff that has been taking place. NO ON BUT PAUL FOR ME!!!

[digitaldean]

143 is pretty good for only around 10 states into it. I would hope the goal would be to get over 500 by the convention.

[opinionatedfool]

143 is pretty good for only around 10 states into it. I would hope the goal would be to get over 500 by the convention.

I hope he gets over a hundred, hopefully closer to two hundred. I think there are 416 at stake.

[revned]

So what place would all of this information put Paul in? 2nd?

[carterm]

the rough estimate is that we're in second right now

[Xenophage]

The delegate assumptions in this thread are so out of touch with reality that I think none of you were delegates to any state conventions four years ago.

The OP estimates 20 delegates out of Iowa when we came in third place with 20% in the straw poll. Are you serious? Even if we ended up with more delegates than any other candidate in the Iowa state convention, the Paul delegation will still be a minority. They're going to have to fight to get ANY delegates to national. You guys don't know how it works.

In Alaska Ron Paul had around 30% of the total delegates to the State convention. Based on the party rules and the primary vote, we should have been sending 11 Ron Paul delegates to national. We almost got NONE, and it was a real battle to end up with the five we DID send. I was there. I remember how we outnumbered any other delegation massively. But the other 70% of the party united to BLOCK US.

Bottom line: Unless we have over 50% of the delegates going to the Iowa state convention, there's no chance in HELL we're going to walk away with 20 Iowa delegates to national. And if we DO have over 50% of the delegates? Well, then there's no reason we shouldn't get ALL of Iowa's delegates (and the party will go thermonuclear on us). But I don't think we'll have over 50% of the delegates in ANY state. It's going to be a battle everywhere.

[opinionatedfool]

So what place would all of this information put Paul in? 2nd?

Yes, by the estimates I gave. No one will know for sure until later in the year.

[opinionatedfool]

But I don't think we'll have over 50% of the delegates in ANY state. It's going to be a battle everywhere.

According to campaign hints, we do.

[PolicyReader]

But I don't think we'll have over 50% of the delegates in ANY state.

Sources in the PCC have said we do in several states, I can think of at least three off the top of my head (won't say where because it'll be enough of a fight, but I will say Santos wins are often hallow, and he's not the only one).
I'm sure if you wanted too since I'm not giving details you could just ignore me and claim I'm simply making stuff up, but the fact is I'm not.
I'm also not claiming any of this is certain yet because the state conventions haven't happened (hence why I'm keeping it on the QT).
One simple fact is Paul has a stronger position than ever before, and a much more capable organization than in 2008 (I was around then and there are lots of lessons learned from what happened).

[PolicyReader]

Ok this is an awesome thread because I know many of us are very upset over Washington and Ron Paul still not "winning one state yet" I would definitely believe we are very very very strong in the delegate count, and I'm very very happy about that!!! So my question to those of you who are in the know, with all the funny stuff going on in these election to date, how can we be sure that this funny business will not happen at the next level??? I really have no idea how this whole election process works, but I really need to know that we will not have to worry about funny stuff when it comes time at the next level of the election process. Can someone help me here??? Will it be harder for them to rig the process at the next level??? Thank you for this thread because it keeps my eye on the prize!!!! This should be a sticky so that the rest of Ron Paul supporters also keep their eye on the prize.. It is frustrating that we haven't won one beauty contest yet, but we should all keep in mind we are fighting a very very very ugly beast who will stop at nothing to make sure Ron does not get anywhere near the GOP nomination!! The more I look at it, the more I think the campaigns strategy is an EXCELLENT ONE!!!! Because I'm sure they are well aware of the funny business they are facing and they know ultimately how they can get around the funny stuff that has been taking place. NO ON BUT PAUL FOR ME!!!
The short answer is that there are things within the process that could, and we expect will, be used to try and unseat Paul delegates. The upshot is that if the delegates know their rules and procedures this year, and there are enough of them present these things can be dealt with.
If the question is about the 'ghost in the machine' the counts are more direct and with lower numbers, plus the people being elected know who they are and know if they're elected before the current stage of the process is completed that's not such an issue.
Does that cover your questions? :) (if not do feel free to ask more/again)

[opinionatedfool]

The short answer is that there are things within the process that could, and we expect will, be used to try and unseat Paul delegates. The upshot is that if the delegates know their rules and procedures this year, and there are enough of them present these things can be dealt with.
If the question is about the 'ghost in the machine' the counts are more direct and with lower numbers, plus the people being elected know who they are and know if they're elected before the current stage of the process is completed that's not such an issue.
Does that cover your questions? :) (if not do feel free to ask more/again)

No doubt we will get fought every step of the way, but we are used to that aren't we. Nothing we've accomplished so far has been easy. I know a lot of things can go wrong, but I think we need to have a hopeful attitude about our progress. If we lose, we lose, but in the mean time let's run to win.

No One But Paul 2012!!!

[Constitutional Paulicy]

The fact based informational content in this thread should be copied and reestablished in the original post of this thread. Then a moderator should sticky this for everyone to reference when a member posts misinformation in this forum. If someone has questions about the process, then regular members can post links to this thread in an effort to educate the uninformed.

If people understood this they would be more resilient and stead fast in their commitment to the campaign to the end. Donations wouldn't dry up due to ignorance about our chances in the outcome of the race.

Here is a video on the topic. The original poster of this thread is welcome to PLEASE ad this video to his post.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=y5RKleqMjuE#!

[opinionatedfool]

The fact based informational content in this thread should be copied and reestablished in the original post of this thread. Then a moderator should sticky this for everyone to reference when a member posts misinformation in this forum. If someone has questions about the process, then regular members can post links to this thread in an effort to educate the uninformed.

If people understood this they would be more resilient and stead fast in their commitment to the campaign to the end. Donations wouldn't dry up due to ignorance about our chances in the outcome of the race.

Here is a video on the topic. The original poster of this thread is welcome to PLEASE ad this video to his post.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=y5RKleqMjuE#!

I updated the original post with this video and a video of doug wead talking about the delegate strategy.

[Constitutional Paulicy]

I updated the original post with this video and a video of doug wead talking about the delegate strategy.

Cool. This link gives detailed info on caucuses and primaries as well as defining proportional winner take all etc..... http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/ccad.phtml

I think a moderator would sticky this thread if they were aware of the content. I'm certain they are aware of the misinformation and how damaging it can be. Which is why I think they would sticky this if we drew attention to it by private messaging them.

[sailingaway]

bump

[PolicyReader]

I thought this also belonged in the thread:


I'm tired of seeing the media put up blatantly wrong delegate counts, so I figured its time that this forum begin their own, accurate, delegate count. On top of that, people on this forum often ask questions about delegates, so hopefully I can clear things up here.

The key difference between this count, and the thing you see on FOX or CNN is that here, i've left the unbound delegates as unbound. Most of the MSM will award the unbound delegate proportionally simply because no one knows, and putting up 'unbound' on the tv screen would confuse 99% of the population.

So, here, instead of guessing, i've left the unbound as unbound. Mods can sticky this if they choose.


Let's begin


Iowa


Number of delegates: 28 total (25 tied to January 3 caucuses, 3 unpledged RNC delegates)
Delegate Allocation: All 25 unbound, delegates chosen at county/state convention
County Conventions: March 10th
State Convention: April 21st

Results:

Unbound: 25

New Hampshire

Number of delegates: 12 total (All 12 tied to January 10 primary)
Delegate Allocation: All 12 awarded proportionally according to January 10th primary

Results:

Romney: 9 (2 from Huntsman)
Paul: 3

South Carolina

Number of delegates: 25 total (reduced from 50 via RNC penalty)
Delegate Allocation: 14 delegates given to winner of each of the 7 congressional districts. 11 at large delegates given to winner

Results:

Gingrich: 23
Romney:2

Florida

Number of Delegates: 50 total (reduced from 99 due to RNC penalty)
Delegate Allocation: Winner take all

Results:

Romney: 50

Nevada

Number of Delegates: 28 total
Delegate Allocation: All 28 awarded proportionally

Results:

Romney: 14
Gingrich: 6
Paul: 5
Santorum: 3

Minnesota


Number of Delegates: 40 total (37 tied to February 7 caucuses, 3 unpledged RNC delegates)
Delegate Allocation: All 37 unbound, delegates chosen at county/state convention
County Conventions: February 17th-March 31st
Congressional District Conventions: April 14th-April 21st
State Conventions: May 4th-May 5th

Results:

Unboud: 37

Colorado

Number of Delegates: 36 total (33 tied to February 7 caucuses, 3 unpledged RNC delegates)
Delegate Allocation: All 33 unbound, delegates chosen at county/state convention
District Caucuses: March 29th-April 13th (Distict Caucuses choose the 21 National Convention Delegates (3 in each of Colorado's 7 Congression Districts) along with the district's delegates to the Colorado State Republican Convention)
State convention: April 14th (State convention selects the remaining 12 delegates)

Results:

Unbound: 33

Maine
Number of delegates:24 total (21 tied to caucuses, 3 unpledged RNC delegates)
Delegate Allocation: All 21 unbound, delegates chosen at county/state convention
State Convention: May 5th-6th (6 delegates elected from the 2 congressional districts, 15 at large delegates awarded)

Results:

Unbound: 21

Michigan
Delegate total: 30 total (Penalized 30 delegates because of RNC rules
Delegate allocation: 2 at large, 28 awarded to winner of the 14 congressional districts

Results:

Romney: 16
Santorum: 14

Arizona
Delegate total: 29 (Penalized 29 delegates because of RNC rules)
Delegate allocation: Winner take all

Results:

Romney: 29

Wyoming
Delegate total: 29 total delegates (26 tied to caucus process, 3 unpledged RNC delegates)
Delegate allocation: 12 awarded by 12 counties (others provide alternates), 14 awarded at state convention
County convention: March 6th-10th (Elect delegates to the national convention, each county provides either an alternate or actual delegate)
State convention: April 12th-14th (remaining 14 delegates chosen for National Convention)

Results:

Unbound:26
Washington
Delegate total: 43 total delegates (40 delegates tied to March 3 caucuses; 3 unpledged RNC delegates)
Delegate allocation: All 40 unbound, awarded at county/state convention
County Convention: April 17th-21st
State Convention: May 30th- June 2nd

Results

Unbound: 40


RNC "super-delegates"



Romney:18
Gingrich: 3
Santorum:2
Paul: 1


Totals through the Washington Caucuses

Total so far: 380 (1,144 needed to win)
Unbound: 182
Romney: 138
Gingrich: 32
Santorum: 19
Paul: 9


Total delegates remaining: 1906

[Constitutional Paulicy]

Here are a couple of interesting finds.........

General but quick rundown on the basics.......


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jBm5lzGNTM

Idaho Caucus for Super Tuesday (detailed ground game)......


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bcmlg7IkPRo

[row333au]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2R6k8cMoejk&feature=youtu.be

[PolicyReader]

Great resources :) keep 'em coming :D

[Noblegeorge]

FOX have this up for their Super Tuesday preview...

Delegates already won: 353. Romney, 203; Santorum, 92; Gingrich, 33; Paul, 25.

I understand confusion arises because of the nature of unbound delegates and all that but how is it that every delegate count I see has a different number? Are these numbers simply projections and if so would it not be basic journalism to point that out instead of listing it as fact? Do FOX have a legitimate basis for the figures they are showing? How is it that the Paul campaigns projects a delegate count that a few days back CNN appeared to agree with but yet is so completely out of line with the above??

In conclusion: CONFUSED.

[opinionatedfool]

FOX have this up for their Super Tuesday preview...

Delegates already won: 353. Romney, 203; Santorum, 92; Gingrich, 33; Paul, 25.

I understand confusion arises because of the nature of unbound delegates and all that but how is it that every delegate count I see has a different number? Are these numbers simply projections and if so would it not be basic journalism to point that out instead of listing it as fact? Do FOX have a legitimate basis for the figures they are showing? How is it that the Paul campaigns projects a delegate count that a few days back CNN appeared to agree with but yet is so completely out of line with the above??

In conclusion: CONFUSED.

Two options: 1. Reporters on msm are simply fools. 2. They are purposely manipulating the numbers to make people think he is a liar.

[tbone717]

FOX have this up for their Super Tuesday preview...

Delegates already won: 353. Romney, 203; Santorum, 92; Gingrich, 33; Paul, 25.

I understand confusion arises because of the nature of unbound delegates and all that but how is it that every delegate count I see has a different number? Are these numbers simply projections and if so would it not be basic journalism to point that out instead of listing it as fact? Do FOX have a legitimate basis for the figures they are showing? How is it that the Paul campaigns projects a delegate count that a few days back CNN appeared to agree with but yet is so completely out of line with the above??

In conclusion: CONFUSED.

The delegate projections are based on historic proportional distribution based on how someone finished in the straw poll contest. While the "delegate strategy", may result in Paul outperforming the estimates, we shouldn't be overly optimistic either. In truth we won't know who has the delegates from some of these states for a couple months still. I think Iowa's State convention is in June.

[Noblegeorge]

Two options: 1. Reporters on msm are simply fools. 2. They are purposely manipulating the numbers to make people think he is a liar.

Or the MSM have their numbers more or less correct and it is the RP Camp that is slanting the data. I don't believe that but it is a possibility. Is there any objective data available besides what we hear from the RP camp? I'm sick of seeing the kinds of numbers below and although i've heard a lot of positive talk i'm yet to see one delegate projection in print that has Ron Paul in second. How can such a disparity exist?

I can only think of the following explanations:

1) RP Campaign has been overestimating in their delegate projection
2) RP Campaign has info that the MSM doesn't
3) The MSM at large and across the board are manipulating the data to support their narrative
4) The MSM have simply miscalculated the delegate count and are unknowingly reproducing incorrect projections

Here are some of the current delegate projections doing the rounds...


The New York Times
Romney 180,
Santorum 90,
Gingrich 29,
Ron Paul 23

CBS...
Romney 187,
Santorum 65,
Gingrich 30,
Paul 20

RealClearPolitics...
Romney 173,
Santorum 74,
Gingrich 33
Paul 37, (dont you like the way they still list Ron Paul last)

CNN, bafflingly as they seemed to agree he was in second place before Washington:
Romney: 187
Santorum: 86
Paul: 46
Gingrich: 36

NBC...:mad:
Romney 119
Gingrich 30
Santorum 17
Paul 8

Yahoo...
Romney 203
Santorum 92
Gingrich 33
Paul 25.

What is really going on?

[Noblegeorge]

The delegate projections are based on historic proportional distribution based on how someone finished in the straw poll contest. While the "delegate strategy", may result in Paul outperforming the estimates, we shouldn't be overly optimistic either. In truth we won't know who has the delegates from some of these states for a couple months still. I think Iowa's State convention is in June.

That does shed some light on it thanks.

[Constitutional Paulicy]

Almost forgot about this one. It was right after New Hampshire.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0frUovx2h9s

[CJLauderdale4]

bump so all will keep the target in focus...

[opinionatedfool]

Or the MSM have their numbers more or less correct and it is the RP Camp that is slanting the data. I don't believe that but it is a possibility. Is there any objective data available besides what we hear from the RP camp? I'm sick of seeing the kinds of numbers below and although i've heard a lot of positive talk i'm yet to see one delegate projection in print that has Ron Paul in second. How can such a disparity exist?

I can only think of the following explanations:

1) RP Campaign has been overestimating in their delegate projection
2) RP Campaign has info that the MSM doesn't
3) The MSM at large and across the board are manipulating the data to support their narrative
4) The MSM have simply miscalculated the delegate count and are unknowingly reproducing incorrect projections

Here are some of the current delegate projections doing the rounds...


The New York Times
Romney 180,
Santorum 90,
Gingrich 29,
Ron Paul 23

CBS...
Romney 187,
Santorum 65,
Gingrich 30,
Paul 20

RealClearPolitics...
Romney 173,
Santorum 74,
Gingrich 33
Paul 37, (dont you like the way they still list Ron Paul last)

CNN, bafflingly as they seemed to agree he was in second place before Washington:
Romney: 187
Santorum: 86
Paul: 46
Gingrich: 36

NBC...:mad:
Romney 119
Gingrich 30
Santorum 17
Paul 8

Yahoo...
Romney 203
Santorum 92
Gingrich 33
Paul 25.

What is really going on?

All of these organizations are miscalculating the delegates. That's not to say they won't try to cheat us out of as many as possible to keep the numbers in their projected range. There will be fights for them for sure.

[PolicyReader]

FOX have this up for their Super Tuesday preview...

Delegates already won: 353. Romney, 203; Santorum, 92; Gingrich, 33; Paul, 25.

I understand confusion arises because of the nature of unbound delegates and all that but how is it that every delegate count I see has a different number? Are these numbers simply projections and if so would it not be basic journalism to point that out instead of listing it as fact? Do FOX have a legitimate basis for the figures they are showing? How is it that the Paul campaigns projects a delegate count that a few days back CNN appeared to agree with but yet is so completely out of line with the above??

In conclusion: CONFUSED.
Almost everything is just a projection at this point, and none of the media outlets have actual number. In fact no one has actual final numbers for the majority of delegates so far. (A)Most of the national ones (from states that have already voted) haven't been assigned yet. (B) Even when they are some of those states are unbound (but the media like to put them in the tally for whoever won that straw poll even tho the delegates vote for whomever they choose).

Now front page of this thread goes into why we think Paul will have an advantage when the dust settles but that's just not finally known by anyone yet. Here are the only actual delegate tallies so far.

W Romney 118
N Gingrich 29
R Santorum 17
R Paul 8
Remember the above totals represent their progress towards the goal of 1,144 needed to confirm.
Willard Romney for example has only made it ~10% of the way to the nomination.

Everything else is guesswork, some of it educated (we try to stay in this area) some of it wild & some of it downright manipulative (the MSM spreads between these as a rule).

Here's the single news source I'm aware of that's keeping a tally of the actual delegates.
https://www.npr.org/2011/12/29/144456395/primary-calendar-republican-delegates-and-whats-at-stake-in-each-state?tab=delegates

Hope that helps clear somethings up :)

[chudrockz]

A HUGE +rep to the OP, and I hope you don't mind that I copied and pasted part of your signature! (This is my attempt to make sure that it worked, in part.)

People, even some RP supporters, just do NOT comprehend (or refuse to believe) the delegate strategy IS WORKING VERY WELL.

I spent eight hours last Saturday AS a delegate to my county convention in Minnesota. In my commissioner district we elected five delegates each to the district and state conventions, ***EVERY SINGE ONE OF WHICH*** is an OVERT Ron Paul supporter!

[opinionatedfool]

Almost everything is just a projection at this point, and none of the media outlets have actual number. In fact no one has actual final numbers for the majority of delegates so far. (A)Most of the national ones (from states that have already voted) haven't been assigned yet. (B) Even when they are some of those states are unbound (but the media like to put them in the tally for whoever won that straw poll even tho the delegates vote for whomever they choose).

Now front page of this thread goes into why we think Paul will have an advantage when the dust settles but that's just not finally known by anyone yet. Here are the only actual delegate tallies so far.

W Romney 118
N Gingrich 29
R Santorum 17
R Paul 8
Remember the above totals represent their progress towards the goal of 1,144 needed to confirm.
Willard Romney for example has only made it ~10% of the way to the nomination.

Everything else is guesswork, some of it educated (we try to stay in this area) some of it wild & some of it downright manipulative (the MSM spreads between these as a rule).

Here's the single news source I'm aware of that's keeping a tally of the actual delegates.
https://www.npr.org/2011/12/29/144456395/primary-calendar-republican-delegates-and-whats-at-stake-in-each-state?tab=delegates

Hope that helps clear somethings up :)

The actual delegates are the ones that have been assigned "for sure." Its the ones that haven't yet been assigned were we have a lot of potential. However, even the "for sure" numbers aren't really for sure. The more accurate number are more like the ones in the original post.

[opinionatedfool]

A HUGE +rep to the OP, and I hope you don't mind that I copied and pasted part of your signature! (This is my attempt to make sure that it worked, in part.)

People, even some RP supporters, just do NOT comprehend (or refuse to believe) the delegate strategy IS WORKING VERY WELL.

I spent eight hours last Saturday AS a delegate to my county convention in Minnesota. In my commissioner district we elected five delegates each to the district and state conventions, ***EVERY SINGE ONE OF WHICH*** is an OVERT Ron Paul supporter!

No I love that you did that, but it's not working just fyi.

[opinionatedfool]

I spent eight hours last Saturday AS a delegate to my county convention in Minnesota. In my commissioner district we elected five delegates each to the district and state conventions, ***EVERY SINGE ONE OF WHICH*** is an OVERT Ron Paul supporter!

Awesome! That is great to hear! +rep!

[chudrockz]

Thanks, and bump! Let me try to figure out the signature thing again quick!

[chudrockz]

Test, test, signature test!

Edit: Okay, I sort of have it. But not quite. It's past my bedtime. You'd think after being here more than four years now I'd have it figured out, but technology eludes me sometimes. Sigh.

[PolicyReader]

The actual delegates are the ones that have been assigned "for sure." Its the ones that haven't yet been assigned were we have a lot of potential. However, even the "for sure" numbers aren't really for sure. The more accurate number are more like the ones in the original post.
Current totals are current ;) but yes your point is well taken. For example Huntsman had two current 'hard' delegates and since he's out they're now unbound.
As another example Idaho has at it's state convention the ability to alter the rules and re-allocate all national delegate awards from their state.
Then there's NV which can vote at the state convention to unbind it's delegates.
And the list goes on, so yes even the current 'hard' delegate count isn't 100% said and done by any means, and I do agree with the OP as far as the likely disposition of delegate numbers, was simply pointing out that no one as actual final numbers at this point. Indeed in a very real way no one will until the convention itself considering all the changes that could be made and all the unbound delegates that are in play already :cool:

I was just trying not to ladle on too much of the obtuseness created by party rules :p
So to clarify for anyone reading: my numbers are accurate to the Hard count as of this moment. However the OP will give you a better sense of where the race really stands because my number DO NOT account for or include in any way the effects of the massively successful Ron Paul delegates at the precinct level and the contributions they can make to the national delegate totals when the dust clears.

I hope that straightens things out :D

[enrique]

A HUGE +rep to the OP, and I hope you don't mind that I copied and pasted part of your signature! (This is my attempt to make sure that it worked, in part.)

People, even some RP supporters, just do NOT comprehend (or refuse to believe) the delegate strategy IS WORKING VERY WELL.

I spent eight hours last Saturday AS a delegate to my county convention in Minnesota. In my commissioner district we elected five delegates each to the district and state conventions, ***EVERY SINGE ONE OF WHICH*** is an OVERT Ron Paul supporter!
Great work, that is not easy to do. Kudos to you.

[opinionatedfool]

Test, test, signature test!

Edit: Okay, I sort of have it. But not quite. It's past my bedtime. You'd think after being here more than four years now I'd have it figured out, but technology eludes me sometimes. Sigh.

At least you still have your account from four years ago. I couldn't remember what mine was for the life of me.

[PolicyReader]

Test, test, signature test!

Edit: Okay, I sort of have it. But not quite. It's past my bedtime. You'd think after being here more than four years now I'd have it figured out, but technology eludes me sometimes. Sigh.

here's what you need to make it work, just sub the "{" with "["

{url="http://whateverURLyouwant.com"}THIS IS THE TEXT PEOPLE WILL SEE{/url}
If you need more of a hand with it feel free to PM me :)

[PaulSoHard]

NBC shows Paul with the least delegates, but that is indeed the most accurate presentation of the delegates that have actually been rewarded.

Don't expect Santorum or Gingrich to come out on top when it comes to delegates being awarded in the caucus states. That requires organization, and Paul has plenty of it as does Romney.

[opinionatedfool]

Lol, who three starred this thread? Some people are so gosh darn negative.

[chudrockz]

here's what you need to make it work, just sub the "{" with "["

If you need more of a hand with it feel free to PM me :)

Thanks, I'll work on it tomorrow afternoon. Maybe morning if I get up early enough. :)

[chudrockz]

Lol, who three starred this thread? Some people are so gosh darn negative.

Probably someone who for whatever reason believes the BS the "media" is playing over and over.

[chudrockz]

At least you still have your account from four years ago. I couldn't remember what mine was for the life of me.

I've been on here more days than not, too! Mostly I just read, sometimes I get fired up and post. I noticed I hit 800 earlier tonight, that's pretty neat.

[opinionatedfool]

Probably someone who for whatever reason believes the BS the "media" is playing over and over.

Maybe bill o'reilly or the Grinch is trolling this forum. Seems like something they would do.

[opinionatedfool]

I was just looking at the analytics for my blog and since I posted the delegate count entry (pretty much the same thing I posted here), there have been about a thousand people who have come to the site through search terms like "ron paul delegate count". That's in like a day or two. Kind of interesting that there are so many people out there randomly searching google for his delegate numbers.

[opinionatedfool]

I've been on here more days than not, too! Mostly I just read, sometimes I get fired up and post. I noticed I hit 800 earlier tonight, that's pretty neat.

Lol, you need to post more. I've had this new account since october or so and I'm at almot 1,300 entries.

[tbone717]

I was just looking at the analytics for my blog and since I posted the delegate count entry (pretty much the same thing I posted here), there have been about a thousand people who have come to the site through search terms like "ron paul delegate count". That's in like a day or two. Kind of interesting that there are so many people out there randomly searching google for his delegate numbers.

You are first result for search term, thats why the traffic surge. Throw an ad sense plug in on there and make some cash

[speciallyblend]

personally , i think your low balling colorado:) I will have a better idea after march 10th but i put the number around 60-90 plus percent. Depending on up coming caucuses in colorado. I will have a better update after march 10th for colorado.

[PolicyReader]

personally , i think your low balling colorado:) I will have a better idea after march 10th but i put the number around 60-90 plus percent. Depending on up coming caucuses in colorado. I will have a better update after march 10th for colorado.
I will look forward to reading that update :)

[speciallyblend]

I will look forward to reading that update :)

overall i like what the op did and it looks very reasonable!

[PolicyReader]

overall i like what the op did and it looks very reasonable!
Always nice to have more feed back from on the ground :)

[opinionatedfool]

personally , i think your low balling colorado:) I will have a better idea after march 10th but i put the number around 60-90 plus percent. Depending on up coming caucuses in colorado. I will have a better update after march 10th for colorado.

That would be AWESOME!

[Noblegeorge]

Almost everything is just a projection at this point, and none of the media outlets have actual number. In fact no one has actual final numbers for the majority of delegates so far. (A)Most of the national ones (from states that have already voted) haven't been assigned yet. (B) Even when they are some of those states are unbound (but the media like to put them in the tally for whoever won that straw poll even tho the delegates vote for whomever they choose).

Now front page of this thread goes into why we think Paul will have an advantage when the dust settles but that's just not finally known by anyone yet. Here are the only actual delegate tallies so far.

W Romney 118
N Gingrich 29
R Santorum 17
R Paul 8
Remember the above totals represent their progress towards the goal of 1,144 needed to confirm.
Willard Romney for example has only made it ~10% of the way to the nomination.

Everything else is guesswork, some of it educated (we try to stay in this area) some of it wild & some of it downright manipulative (the MSM spreads between these as a rule).

Here's the single news source I'm aware of that's keeping a tally of the actual delegates.
https://www.npr.org/2011/12/29/144456395/primary-calendar-republican-delegates-and-whats-at-stake-in-each-state?tab=delegates

Hope that helps clear somethings up :)

Thanks for that, just seeing it now. I can see why the MSM would just make projections based on the popular vote, its lazy journalism but hey I guess we have the likes of Ben Swann to keep them honest!

[mscpotts]

Hello, I am having a hard time finding out how to get involved in Tennessee for Ron Paul. I have joined the grassroots movement and other websites (and asked about volunteering), but have yet to be contacted. Anyway, could someone please tell me how to become a delegate for RP. I know the deadline was last fall, but if any become unbound (as he is not expected to win the state), I would like to become one, or a replacement/backup, etc. Please bear with my ignorance, as I am trying to learn as much as possible everyday in order to help the cause. Thanks for reading.

[tbone717]

Hello, I am having a hard time finding out how to get involved in Tennessee for Ron Paul. I have joined the grassroots movement and other websites (and asked about volunteering), but have yet to be contacted. Anyway, could someone please tell me how to become a delegate for RP. I know the deadline was last fall, but if any become unbound (as he is not expected to win the state), I would like to become one, or a replacement/backup, etc. Please bear with my ignorance, as I am trying to learn as much as possible everyday in order to help the cause. Thanks for reading.

It would be too late to run for delegate at this point. Sorry.

[ATXRevolutionary]

I have a friend on FB that is questioning Ron's electablity:


"I love Ron Paul, but he has virtually no chance of winning. I think right now he's just setting up his son's political career.
Do you honestly think he has a chance of winning? I'm not trying to put you down, merely curious."

I want to explain to her that Dr. Paul is actually second in the delegate count but I'm finding it hard to explain in an easily digestible manner. Do you guys think this thread would be a good thing to share with her?

[PolicyReader]

I have a friend on FB that is questioning Ron's electablity:



I want to explain to her that Dr. Paul is actually second in the delegate count but I'm finding it hard to explain in an easily digestible manner. Do you guys think this thread would be a good thing to share with her?

I think the thread is a good resource, or you could quote some parts of it to her / share the videos as a starting point so she can digest it in smaller bites.
If she knows anything about sports (I know lots of people aren't into that but for those who are) it's like collage basketball. The Pop vote is a lot like the pre-season. The election night delegate vote is the regular season, and the conventions from then on are like the brackets on the way to the finals (the Convention in Tampa). It's just that in elections the pre-season gets the most attention rather than the playoffs :p


If the sports thing is no good here's another way to go about it,
tell her that to win the nomination anyone needs 1144 confirmed delegates and that right now only around 5% (I'm approximating) of the delegates have actually been assigned. Furthermore best assessment Paul is more strongly placed to take the nomination than Gingrich or Santorum. He's certainly far from out of the race despite what the news reels say ;)

Hope some of that is useful to you :)

ps ~ there's also Ben Swann

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_OTg8tILYs

[opinionatedfool]

Let's figure out about where we are at on todays contests...

[PolicyReader]

Here's Ben Swann on the current delegate count.
Remember current delegate count is current we still haven't seen things like the possible vote in NV or the state convention action in ID both of which could change the playing field of the current bound delegate totals. ;) (just working on getting Paul some more support in the Idaho vote today :D )

http://www.fox19.com/story/17106888/reality-check-what-do-the-real-republican-delegate-numbers-look-like

[PolicyReader]

Here's a story that does a pretty good job of covering Santorum's delegate count, or rather the number of delegates he's failed to even qualify to try and attain.
Paul and Willard still have the only solid ground games (tho Rick is shaping up, but that won't undo the damage done just prevent there from being more)
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?366117-Santorum-Delegate-Woes

[opinionatedfool]

Here's a story that does a pretty good job of covering Santorum's delegate count, or rather the number of delegates he's failed to even qualify to try and attain.
Paul and Willard still have the only solid ground games (tho Rick is shaping up, but that won't undo the damage done just prevent there from being more)
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?366117-Santorum-Delegate-Woes

I'll have to go through and update the original post when I get a chance.

[PolicyReader]

I'll have to go through and update the original post when I get a chance.

Looking forward to it (more) +rep
also today has been good in county conventions =)

[opinionatedfool]

Looking forward to it (more) +rep
also today has been good in county conventions =)

Yes, there has been a lot of encouraging news today. Hopefully the disheartened will be more motivated!

[PolicyReader]

Here (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?366569-Ron-Pauls-Delegate-Strategy-May-be-Working) are a couple of projections, one from Nate Silver (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/09/how-daunting-is-santorums-delegate-math/) and one from Real Clear Politics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/03/09/romney_really_might_not_have_the_delegates_by_june .html). Also including my own view on Silvers projection quoted below.


Check this out

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/09/how-daunting-is-santorums-delegate-math/
Now here's the interesting thing I found in reading that article. Using is baseline case (the least favorable to Paul)

which assumes that the status quo is mostly preserved — except that Newt Gingrich drops out of the race after Alabama and Mississippi vote.

In cases where some or all delegates are chosen at caucuses or conventions, I assume that the delegates won there are proportional to the statewide popular vote, although that certainly won’t always be the case.
Emphasis mine

(This Projection) When combined with the delegates he already has — 421, according to the Associated Press count — that would put (Romney) over the threshold of 1,144 delegates required to clinch the race after the Utah primary on June 26.
Emphasis mine

Upshot, of the three projections this case (most favorable to Romney/lease favorable to Paul) assumes that the momentum and voting trends of the race at present continue throughout until the end. It further assumes that Newt drops, that the AP delegate projection is accurate as of now and that all delegates going forward are awarded in accordance with the pop vote in each state.
Within this case Willard Romney does not clinch the nomination until after Utah, the final state, has voted. Meaning this race isn't over until the very end.

Now if any variance occurs from this projection which doesn't favor Willard or if the AP count is wrong and Willard has an actual delegate count lower than his projected delegate count (possible examples upon request ;) ) then a brokered convention becomes a mathematical certainty (prior to accounting for the unbound delegates that Mr. Silver hasn't included in his baseline projections. Those delegates could make up the gap for Romney if he were able to sway sufficient numbers of them, in the view of Mr. Silver assuming Mr. Romney does not hit his projected marks by 5% then Romney would require 2/3rd of all unbound & Super delegates to clinch the nomination).

What this means is that roughly speaking if the combination of candidates still in the race can cost Romney a cumulative average of 5% of the vote (compared to projections) from now until Tampa then we'll have a brokered convention. (And that's without factoring in the pop/straw vote gap from actual delegates)

Race not over, won't be over until after Utah if then.

[CTRattlesnake]

Shameless self-promotion.


check out my thread for the real delegate totals

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?364940-RPF-s-Official-Delegate-Count-Thread

[PolicyReader]

Shameless self-promotion.


check out my thread for the real delegate totals

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?364940-RPF-s-Official-Delegate-Count-Thread
Considering the quality of your other breakdowns I approve this message :)

[eleganz]

bump in case nobody is bumping this.

[PolicyReader]

Any word on the updated OP? :cool:

[PolicyReader]

bump

[PolicyReader]

bump

[PolicyReader]

Looking for more input on what these rules might do: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?368894-RNC-Rlue-15%28b%29