Victory in Washington is within reach

[rp08orbust]

I have never been more serious in my life: I firmly believe that a mere $10k stands between us and victory in the Washington caucus straw poll tomorrow. That's how much we estimate that it would take to finish calling the roughly two million phone numbers left on our robopoll list and follow up with text messages and phone calls.

What initially seemed like an easy project to add a few hundred votes for Ron Paul looks like it could add thousands. We've obtained leads to about 12,700 Ron Paul leaners. Combining feedback from multiple call centers (including our own volunteers), about 80% of those confirm their support for Ron Paul in follow-up calls. About 65% of those called say they will attend their caucus and vote for Ron Paul. One call center is asking about delegates, and amazingly, 37% say they intend to seek delegate positions at their caucus. What we find remarkable is that almost no persuasion seems necessary: People appear to be making decisions based on the voice message played to them after voting for Ron Paul in the robopoll and the text message they receive the same day.

If 65% of those 12,700 Ron Paul leaners currently have intentions of caucusing for Ron Paul tomorrow and a mere 20% of them actually do (an estimate we make based on our identical efforts in Washington Co., Maine a couple weeks ago), we're looking at 1,650 votes added to Ron Paul's total so far in a caucus that drew only about 12,000 votes in 2008.


The call centers have done a great job, and these results show how effective use of donations has been. But the truth is, how well Ron Paul does on Saturday will come down to our last-minute Robopoll and Get Out the Vote (GOTV) efforts.

The simple truth is, elections are a number's game. That means turnout is CRITICAL.

If Ron Paul is going to finish strong on Saturday, we must make sure we can ID as many additional supporters as possible and convince them to show up to vote. Click to Donate http://rp2012.org/ (http://rp2012.org/)

Of course, we can't know for certain that none of those 1,650 votes would have been cast for Ron Paul without our efforts, but a statistical argument can be made that very few of them would have. Less than 0.2% of the Washington population voted in the 2008 GOP caucus. Even if that doubles or triples to 0.5% (which I'm a bit skeptical about), that's a tiny sliver of the population. That means perhaps 0.1% of the Washington population is going to caucus for Ron Paul tomorrow. But roughly 10% * 65% = 6.5% of our survey respondents are saying they will caucus for Ron Paul tomorrow, and if 80% of them do not, then we're only down 1.3% of our respondents being Ron Paul voters tomorrow. As tiny as that may seem, it is still way too high to simply be the result of us magically finding that 0.1% sliver of the population who will actually vote for Ron Paul tomorrow. That would be paranormal. Rather, we're concluding that the robopoll itself and the follow-up text messages are persuading people, and follow-up phone calls are solidifying those decisions.

I am a terrible marketer and salesman. If I were better at promoting this, I'm convinced we could have won the Ames straw poll with 10,000 votes using the same techniques I was using then and am using now. Perhaps I should try beginning every sentence with "You see", like John Tate ;)

You see, the bottom line is, the donations you make in the next few hours at http://rp2012.org will determine whether Ron Paul wins the Washington caucus tomorrow.

[Gray Fullbuster]

Wish I had money, but I'm a minor.

[RPit]

I suspect 5-7K votes is needed to secure the win overall.. People you can't afford NOT to help out by donation (if you can't) or sign up to phone call with them (this is grassroots not the campaign pfh)..

Please help these folks out!

STOP!!!! IF YOU WANT TO WIN WA DO THIS!
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?364229-STOP!!!!-DO-THIS-IF-YOU-WANT-TO-WIN!!-WA!!

[cornell]

This sounds very, very promising, thanks for all of the work you have done on this and thanks to everyone who has funded the project or volunteered to make calls! Keep it going everyone.

Do you have any guesses for why only 20% of people who commit to caucus for Ron Paul actually showed up in Washington County? Were there specific factors that made that caucus impractical to attend? Is there any reason to think that this percentage will be higher or lower in Washington?

[freshjiva]

Do we donate right at http://www.rp2012.org ?

I've got $250 coming your way NOW and another $250 coming IF people post their receipts totalling $250.

Folks, dig deep! I know from experience working with Robbie in the past. His work is efficient AND cost efficient.
Even if you can only give $20, do it! And post your receipt in this thread.

[bdmarti]

$25
Receipt Number: 3540-3224-8050-1500

[freshjiva]

Confirmation Number: 48Y810312W488391L
Placed on Mar 2, 2012

Grassroots for Liberty SuperPAC $250.00 USD
Total Amount: $250.00 US

[gerryb]

Matched the original $250 from freshjiva
Grassroots for Liberty SuperPAC $250.00 USD

Who has some funds to match the 2nd $250?

[tuggy24g]

I never got a phone call to call using the grassroots phone from home. What should I so? I signed up two days ago.

[gerryb]

I never got a phone call to call using the grassroots phone from home. What should I so? I signed up two days ago.

Sent you a PM with the phone # of the person bringing new people on board.

[Trigonx]

I never got a phone call to call using the grassroots phone from home. What should I so? I signed up two days ago.

this is a post in the another thread about signing up and not being contacted

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?364229-STOP!!!!-DO-THIS-IF-YOU-WANT-TO-WIN!!-WA!!&p=4237382&viewfull=1#post4237382

[Esoteric]

bump

[IDefendThePlatform]

I personally think this is the best use of money I've ever seen in politics.

Ron Paul is doing great with delegates and has the potential to win the nomination.
He needs to win a state to gain undeniable legitimacy.
These Robopolls have a proven track record of identifying NEW Ron Paul supporters incredibly cheaply.
We know there is potential for x new supporters given y amount of money.
Robbie's done the math on turnout and polling. He says $10,000 gets Ron Paul his historic first win.
Repeat: Ron Paul can win an entire state now for $10,000 more dollars. We spent millions on other states and haven't won yet.

Let's get him $10,000!

[FriedChicken]

I don't have much but I just went in $20.00

[RPit]

How much is a worth win to you guys? Donate and Call!!!

STOP!!! DO THIS TO WIN WA!!!
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?364229-STOP!!!!-DO-THIS-IF-YOU-WANT-TO-WIN!!-WA!!

[gerryb]

I don't have much but I just went in $20.00

+rep

$230 left to match folks!

[PolicyReader]

Had to bend sound fiscal policy to do it (but if there ever was a time today is that day) and borrow the money (something I detest doing, I've never even had a credit card) but here's a donation to the cause.
$30.00
Confirmation number: 5E652570V89171901

If just three people match me we will be more than half way to our goal.
Are you stepping up?

[Paulatized]

Confirmation Number: 2RL749894K3922409 Placed on Mar 2, 2012
Purpose Donation
amount
Grassroots for Liberty SuperPAC $25.00 USD
Total Amount: $25.00 USD

[Liberty74]

It's going to be extremely difficult to determine the exact number of caucus voters. Why? Because WA had a caucus of 12000 voters in 2008 yet 10 days later there were 529,000 primary voters in WA. This year, there is no primary so I would suspect that the turnout in the caucus will be much higher than the 12,000 4 years ago.

I guess we shall see how eliminating the primary this time around affects the caucus only turn out.

[trey4sports]

donate folks. OP has done a fantastic job with robocalls this cycle. money well spent.

[harikaried]

Is there a way to dynamically guide the robocall based on responses so far? E.g., pressed support Ron Paul, pressed not registered, inform that the last day to register (online) is today, etc.?

[Sal123]

Confirmation number: 9C066996YP314051Y
Amount: $20.00 USD
Sent on: March 2, 2012

First political donation ever.

[gerryb]

Is there a way to dynamically guide the robocall based on responses so far? E.g., pressed support Ron Paul, pressed not registered, inform that the last day to register (online) is today, etc.?

Yes, but it is more effective to follow up with a live caller. They are getting the other information via recording and text message, though.

[PolicyReader]

With how low voter turnout was and how many voters have seemed to be unaware of the actual caucus time/process (or even that there is no primary this year)
add to that the lagging enthusiasm with this electoral process right now (and with Romney in general)
and voter turnout shouldn't be expected to be high.

Today is a chance to make an impact, Thank You to everyone who has/is contributing funds and calls.
Are you one of us yet? Come join us, we have cookies baked with Liberty ;) :D

[Wolfgang Bohringer]

I called 25 numbers this morning and the results were very good:

10 Supporters

10 Voice Mails

5 No Answer / Bad Numbers

Of the 10 supporters 5 say they will attend and 5 can't attend.

I had to spend some time with all 5 who say they will attend to figure out where their locations were.

I copied the values of the "Ron Paul Supporter" column of the 1400+ line spread sheet that is supposed to have values of:

blank - not called
Y - RP supporter
N - not a supporter
M - maybe a supporter
VM - left a voice mail

into my own excel spread sheet, then imported into sql server, and then queried the data and grouped by the values of the column. At this rate we need a lot more people calling to get these 1400+ numbers called. Here are the results:

Ron Paul Supporter? column Total
-------------------------- -----------
blank (not called) 506

VM (voice mail) 295

NA (no answer) 132

Y (yes) 88

- (dash probably not called) 52

N (no) 50

M 7

not called
reserved for 7 different callers 222


non-standard values 36

non-standard values itemized:

? 2
?? 2

call back 1
Call later 1
Calling bk 1

don't call 2

Hang up 1
hang-up 4
hung up 7

lives in SD 1

N? 1

NO SRV 1

VM full 2
wrong # 1

X 1

Yes-Busy Call Back 1


So it looks like we've identified 88 supporters. I don't have the breakdown on how many say they're going to show up. Its probably 1/2.

[rp08orbust]

Update from Jun: $5,050 needed.

[PolicyReader]

Update from Jun: $5,050 needed.
We're nearly half way there, and we're just a bit closer to earning the matching $250, come on folks lets dig deep and carry this over the line for Washington and the win.

[RPit]

Come on people.. This is gold mine. Its like a fruit waiting to be eaten. These are mostly ID'd Ron Paul supporters, what else do you want from a GOTV!

Goo!! Sign and call!

[GraspingForPeace]

Update from Jun: $5,050 needed.

-50 for my donation! :D

[mikef]

LET'S DO THIS!!

This email confirms that you have donated $300.00 USD to Grassroots for Liberty (info@rp2012.org) using PayPal.
This credit card transaction will appear on your bill as "PAYPAL *GRASSROOTSF".

[Todd]

I personally think this is the best use of money I've ever seen in politics.

Ron Paul is doing great with delegates and has the potential to win the nomination.
He needs to win a state to gain undeniable legitimacy.
These Robopolls have a proven track record of identifying NEW Ron Paul supporters incredibly cheaply.
We know there is potential for x new supporters given y amount of money.
Robbie's done the math on turnout and polling. He says $10,000 gets Ron Paul his historic first win.
Repeat: Ron Paul can win an entire state now for $10,000 more dollars. We spent millions on other states and haven't won yet.

Let's get him $10,000!

is it too late for a 10K money bomb....

[gerryb]

is it too late for a 10K money bomb....

Not too late, we have $250 matching funds on the table ready waiting to match.

[Sentinelrv]

I've been spreading the link to this thread all over Facebook. Please do this to help gain more donations.

[harikaried]

is it too late for a 10K money bomb....It's only been 4 hours and more than halfway raised. Although we are running up against registration cutoff time of 11:59pm, but ideal calling time is coming up -- early evening.

[zippy81]

Delete sorry

[PolicyReader]

I've been spreading the link to this thread all over Facebook. Please do this to help gain more donations.
Yep I've spread this today and the phone banking effort today and yesterday, it's well worth the few minutes to get the word out :)

Also +rep Sentinelrv

[Krtek]

Confirmation number: 0D620530JU903520P
Donation amount: 50 dollars



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWJ34YANTYU

[Suzu]

Combining feedback from multiple call centers (including our own volunteers)
What do you mean by "call centers"?

[PolicyReader]

Where do we stand on the fundraiser for today? How close to the full $10,000 are we?

[RPit]

What do you mean by "call centers"?

We don't have nearly enough volunteers to call the thousands of people. What do you expect us to do then, call center is the other alternative, no?

[Suzu]

We don't have nearly enough volunteers to call the thousands of people. What do you expect us to do then, call center is the other alternative, no?
I don't understand what is meant by "call centers". Still.

[rp08orbust]

Stand by for update. We're close to having enough to finish off the list.

[rp08orbust]

Delete by author.

[RPit]

Donate people!

[PolicyReader]

What do you mean by "call centers"?
Professional groups which can be contracted to make calls (i.e. Phone Bank) on a given project. These are how most polling places get their actual raw data.
So the grassroots there has kicked it into over drive and employed some of these centers to take up the slack for the lack of volunteers working on this project.

I hope grassroots in all upcoming states demonstrates this kind of dedication and organization :)

[ATXRevolutionary]

Just donated another $25 (Confirmation #9M0232501L9043505) on top of the $20.12 (Confirmation #72H59109JF304445L) I gave earlier today.

[Jeffster]

I just donated $100. Let's win! :)

[UMULAS]

Hey, how can I do the phone calling tommorow, I signed up at the website, now what?

[PolicyReader]

Hey, how can I do the phone calling tommorow, I signed up at the website, now what?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dHV0NVpwWFBSWXZEc015WWgtTldjLUE6M A#gid=0
use that link to get signed up and check out the OP in this thread (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?364229-STOP!!!!-DO-THIS-IF-YOU-WANT-TO-WIN!!-WA!!/page23) to get yourself set up to make calls. :)

[Warmon]

[QUOTE=Sal123; First political donation ever.[/QUOTE]

+rep Congrats and welcome to the movement. + rep for every donator in this thread.

[RPit]

Hey, how can I do the phone calling tommorow, I signed up at the website, now what?

TOMORROW? Are you kidding me! The caucus IS TOMORROW 9am!! Who are you planning on calling tomorrow! Call NOW!

[PolicyReader]

First political donation ever.+rep Congrats and welcome to the movement. + rep for every donator in this thread.
Agreed, well timed first donation :)

[kill the banks]

Confirmation number: 9C066996YP314051Y
Amount: $20.00 USD
Sent on: March 2, 2012

First political donation ever.

nice 1st post ... Welcome !

[deputydon]

I would love to donate, unfortunately firstmerit decided to charge me an insane amount of overdraft fees for absolutely no reason. So I am completely broke. On behalf of the crap that is Firstmerit Bank, I apologize.

[rp08orbust]

Sorry for the delay--had a problem with text messages I had to sort out.

Jun says we need about $4,000

[Krtek]

bump

[RPit]

ONLY FEW HOURS OF GOTV EFFORT LEFT.. HELP OUT BEFORE ITS TOO LATE!!!!!

[justatrey]

Let it not be said that we did nothing!

Confirmation number: 13G88582L9007761V
Donation amount: $50.00 USD
Total: $50.00 USD
Purpose: Grassroots for Liberty SuperPAC

[J_White]

thank you guys !

as Dexter would say "Tonight's the night !"

[PolicyReader]

Just had a conversation with a nice older guy who didn't know a whole lot about Paul (no media attention) and didn't know the only vote was tomorrow, now that he knows more about both we've got one more vote for Paul tomorrow in WA :D

[rp08orbust]

We completed the list of 5.2 million phone numbers. Thank you everyone--we've given it all we could!

[neverseen]

We completed the list of 5.2 million phone numbers. Thank you everyone--we've given it all we could!

Geeze.

[Barrex]

We completed the list of 5.2 million phone numbers. Thank you everyone--we've given it all we could!

Can we have some more specific data?
How many were planing to go even without calls?
How many were persuaded?
How many will not be going?
Anything?
Roughly percentage?
Que?

[SCOTUSman]

Great work. I don't care what the PPP poll says, we will do much, much better. Washington is our type of state. We'll do well. We can hit 30%...30% may win it!

[rb3b3]

I had tremendous success calling Washington tonight, everyone I spoke to was Ron Paul supporters and will be going to vote tomorrow, the only ones who weren't didn't live in Washington but are Ron Paul supporters!!

[PolicyReader]

I can't speak for the list at large but from my calling I had (very roughly) 1/3 who wouldn't have voted Paul without our calls either because they lacked proper voting information or because they needed someone to talk issues with them before they committed. I'm more enthusiastic after making many calls than I was before I started making them. And I really hope this method is spread to the rest of the states.
Great work all, I'm glad I was able to be a part of it! :)

[CTRattlesnake]

We did all we could, huge thanks to everyone out there who called, both on the forum and off.

[Trigonx]

great job and thank you to all those who donated and called. Our efforts won't be in vain.

[justatrey]

We completed the list of 5.2 million phone numbers. Thank you everyone--we've given it all we could!

Huge +rep, you guys are all true patriots. Whatever happens, you won't look back and feel ashamed for lack of effort. THANK YOU!!!

[ross11988]

Can we have some more specific data?
How many were planing to go even without calls?
How many were persuaded?
How many will not be going?
Anything?
Roughly percentage?
Que?

If you helped out with the effort you could of seen the numbers for yourself.

[Barrex]

If you helped out with the effort you could of seen the numbers for yourself.

Dear Sir (Dude)
I politely asked few questions. There was no need for you to be such a dick about it. When people talk about obnoxious and aggressive Ron Paul "Paultards" who turn away voters they probably have you in mind.
I have had a perfectly wonderful conversation...but this was not it.

P.s.
If you were nicer person Ron Paul would have more voters.

[rb3b3]

quick question for those in the know...... the list i was calling off of had around 1400 phone numbers, how did the 5.2 million other phone numbers get called? was that list of 5.2 million phone numbers off the same robocalls thatput my list at 1400? 5.2 million is alot of phone numbers, how the hell did we manage to call all of them?????how many people were hired to call those 5.2 million numbers?

[bbwarfield]

Dear Sir (Dude)
I politely asked few questions. There was no need for you to be such a dick about it. When people talk about obnoxious and aggressive Ron Paul "Paultards" who turn away voters they probably have you in mind.
I have had a perfectly wonderful conversation...but this was not it.

P.s.
If you were nicer person Ron Paul would have more voters.

really thought I was on the "vote flipping" thread when I read the "if you helped with the effort" line..... i have a feeling tempers are just gonna get hotter and hotter on the forums

[jllundqu]

Dear Sir (Dude)
I politely asked few questions. There was no need for you to be such a dick about it. When people talk about obnoxious and aggressive Ron Paul "Paultards" who turn away voters they probably have you in mind.
I have had a perfectly wonderful conversation...but this was not it.

P.s.
If you were nicer person Ron Paul would have more voters.
+rep

[PolicyReader]

Dear Sir (Dude)
I politely asked few questions. There was no need for you to be such a dick about it. When people talk about obnoxious and aggressive Ron Paul "Paultards" who turn away voters they probably have you in mind.
I have had a perfectly wonderful conversation...but this was not it.

P.s.
If you were nicer person Ron Paul would have more voters.

I don't have list totals but the chatter among the volunteers last night was on balance very good and my 'eyeball' estimation is that roughly 25%-33% of my calls resulted in new voters for Paul (meaning people who would either not have been motivated or not have been able to come out otherwise, there were also a few who weren't sure if they supported Paul so I spent time answering issues questions which brought them on board).
So here's the speculation (and it is that) if my calls are Representative of the general list, and if the volunteer list is consistent with the other Grassroots for Liberty lists then we added between 3-12% to Pauls vote total (range of % based off whether turn out is closer to the '08 levels or the WA GOP projected 60,000 ). Now the above is a lot of speculation and the actual results could ultimately be better or worse than my 'eyeballing' of it.
But those are my general impressions FWIW.

[UMULAS]

signed up on the website, hoping for more future projects.

[UMULAS]

I heard from a person in the phf saying i am 83 years old and i cannot get out ???

[FriedChicken]

quick question for those in the know...... the list i was calling off of had around 1400 phone numbers, how did the 5.2 million other phone numbers get called? was that list of 5.2 million phone numbers off the same robocalls thatput my list at 1400? 5.2 million is alot of phone numbers, how the hell did we manage to call all of them?????how many people were hired to call those 5.2 million numbers?

They were robo-polled - called by a machine with a recorded message asking them to dial a certain number to indicate who they supported as the nominee. Personal calls were made to those who indicated they were Ron Paul supporters.

[RPit]

call centers were used.

[3kgt]

How can it possibly be that every single state the two candidates are NECK AND NECK, like EXACTLY the same amount of votes each with paul always getting edged out?

[FriedChicken]

I hope Grassroots for Liberty finds a huge donor to work on the other states with -- imagine what could be done with $100,000 with this kind of efficiency. I also hope Endorse Liberty (unending pocket pac) starts some efforts like this. They can write enough checks to probably robopoll all the super Tues. states, identify all the supporters and hire call centers to contact each of them in before the voting happens if they wanted to invest in it.

[rb3b3]

They were robo-polled - called by a machine with a recorded message asking them to dial a certain number to indicate who they supported as the nominee. Personal calls were made to those who indicated they were Ron Paul supporters.


Now I'm really confused, so are you saying that out of the 5.2 million numbers only 1400 were Ron Paul supporters?? I'll assume no, the idea of the project was to get Ron Paul voters out to vote, so if they robocalls those 5.2 million number with a recording my good guess is that it would not do us good!! We need live people to call the 5.2 million numbers to make sure we get them out to vote and to tell them how to find precinct info out!! So can someone please fill in the blanks here for me??

[Suzu]

Now I'm really confused, so are you saying that out of the 5.2 million numbers only 1400 were Ron Paul supporters?? I'll assume no, the idea of the project was to get Ron Paul voters out to vote, so if they robocalls those 5.2 million number with a recording my good guess is that it would not do us good!! We need live people to call the 5.2 million numbers to make sure we get them out to vote and to tell them how to find precinct info out!! So can someone please fill in the blanks here for me??
First off the number has to be answered, then the person has to be willing to take the poll. Right off the bat you eliminate a huge percentage of the numbers called, since few people will actually answer and take the poll. Of those who do, many might be from out of state. Still, the yield of leads gotten this way is good and many would be new voters who aren't in the lists being called by the campaign.