CTRattlesnake
02-29-2012, 04:33 PM
Hey all. With the importance of Washington to the overall campaign, I figured I'd do a little analysis of the upcoming caucus to see what we can expect on Saturday night.
So lets look at Washington State.
Where are the people?
http://images.wikia.com/genealogy/images/1/1f/Washington_population_map.png
Washington has 3 distinct population centers. The Seattle Metro area in the west, Spokane in the east, and Vancouver in the south.
The largest cities are seen below
Seattle 608,660
Spokane 208,916
Tacoma 198,397
Vancouver 161,791
Bellevue 122,363
Seattle is the state's largest city so it is no surprise that the counties surrounding it are the largest in the state.
Below are the 5 largest counties and their populations. The top 3 all surround the Seattle metropolitan area, while Spokane county holds the city of Spokane, and clark county holds the city of Vancouver.
King-----------1,931,249
Pierce---------795,225
Snohomish----713,335
Spokane-------471,221
Clark-----------425,363
What happened last time?
Now that we have our feet on the ground a bit, lets look at the 2008 caucus results. Now, its important to remember that in 08, Washington had a Caucus and then a primary a few weeks later, so caucus turnout was very light. I would expect light turnout this year again because of the time (saturday morning) and the fact that its a caucus not a primary. While turnout may not be as light as 08, it should not be so much higher that it would effect my analysis below.
By the time the caucus rolled around, Romney had already withdrawn from the race, leaving McCain, Huckabee, and Paul.
http://i.imgur.com/ghVPX.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/DNalh.jpg
Just as a side note, the counties that Romney 'won' in the map above are glitches. Huckabee won the two furthest west, Paul won the second furthest east and tied McCain in the one furthest east.
So what trends can we find?
The first, most noticeable thing is McCain's dominance of the populous counties in the west surrounding seattle. Most of the wealthier, more urban counties tend to lean more towards the establishment candidate (think of Maine and New Hampshire with Mitt). Secondly, we notice a split between Paul and Huckabee in the rural/smaller counties throughout the state. Huckabee does have a slight advantage, but McCain is almost shut out once you move towards the center and east parts of the state. Third, and most important are the cities of Spokane and Vancouver. As posted above, these are the 2nd and 4th most populous cities in the state and their counties 4th and 5th most populous respectively. Paul won both counties in 08. Spokane was a virtual landslide with Paul getting nearly 50% in a 3 man race, while he won by 1% in Vancouver.
How about this year?
Now lets look at campaign donations through the end of 11. This will give us an updated picture of the type of support each candidate has. Because Santorum was polling at 1-2% for most of the year, his contributions dont represent his actual support and wont be counted.
http://i.imgur.com/9Rp0T.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/U0GVo.jpg
We see much of what I posted above. Romney doing well relative to Paul with donations in the wealthy suburbs around Seattle (399k to 197k). But, Paul does well out east and nearly everywhere else. Remember, Romney out-raised Paul 639k to 471k in the state, so places where Paul has raised more money shows clear support for the Dr.
Clark county, although gave nearly 3x more money to Mitt than Ron, actually had more Paul donors (203-139) overall, so our support is strong there. The bubbles, remember, show total $ given, not number of people actually giving money.
On election day
We will win if......
-Paul wins in Vancouver, keeps it close in King County, and dominates in Spokane
Finally, Santorum will not be a major factor. Before his disaster on tuesday, he would not be a major player, but with his losses in AZ and MI, he may win some of the Huckabee counties, but nothing beyond that.
Get on the phones, it will be close folks! http://phone.ronpaul2012.com/v/login.php?return_url=%2Fv%2F
Thanks for reading
So lets look at Washington State.
Where are the people?
http://images.wikia.com/genealogy/images/1/1f/Washington_population_map.png
Washington has 3 distinct population centers. The Seattle Metro area in the west, Spokane in the east, and Vancouver in the south.
The largest cities are seen below
Seattle 608,660
Spokane 208,916
Tacoma 198,397
Vancouver 161,791
Bellevue 122,363
Seattle is the state's largest city so it is no surprise that the counties surrounding it are the largest in the state.
Below are the 5 largest counties and their populations. The top 3 all surround the Seattle metropolitan area, while Spokane county holds the city of Spokane, and clark county holds the city of Vancouver.
King-----------1,931,249
Pierce---------795,225
Snohomish----713,335
Spokane-------471,221
Clark-----------425,363
What happened last time?
Now that we have our feet on the ground a bit, lets look at the 2008 caucus results. Now, its important to remember that in 08, Washington had a Caucus and then a primary a few weeks later, so caucus turnout was very light. I would expect light turnout this year again because of the time (saturday morning) and the fact that its a caucus not a primary. While turnout may not be as light as 08, it should not be so much higher that it would effect my analysis below.
By the time the caucus rolled around, Romney had already withdrawn from the race, leaving McCain, Huckabee, and Paul.
http://i.imgur.com/ghVPX.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/DNalh.jpg
Just as a side note, the counties that Romney 'won' in the map above are glitches. Huckabee won the two furthest west, Paul won the second furthest east and tied McCain in the one furthest east.
So what trends can we find?
The first, most noticeable thing is McCain's dominance of the populous counties in the west surrounding seattle. Most of the wealthier, more urban counties tend to lean more towards the establishment candidate (think of Maine and New Hampshire with Mitt). Secondly, we notice a split between Paul and Huckabee in the rural/smaller counties throughout the state. Huckabee does have a slight advantage, but McCain is almost shut out once you move towards the center and east parts of the state. Third, and most important are the cities of Spokane and Vancouver. As posted above, these are the 2nd and 4th most populous cities in the state and their counties 4th and 5th most populous respectively. Paul won both counties in 08. Spokane was a virtual landslide with Paul getting nearly 50% in a 3 man race, while he won by 1% in Vancouver.
How about this year?
Now lets look at campaign donations through the end of 11. This will give us an updated picture of the type of support each candidate has. Because Santorum was polling at 1-2% for most of the year, his contributions dont represent his actual support and wont be counted.
http://i.imgur.com/9Rp0T.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/U0GVo.jpg
We see much of what I posted above. Romney doing well relative to Paul with donations in the wealthy suburbs around Seattle (399k to 197k). But, Paul does well out east and nearly everywhere else. Remember, Romney out-raised Paul 639k to 471k in the state, so places where Paul has raised more money shows clear support for the Dr.
Clark county, although gave nearly 3x more money to Mitt than Ron, actually had more Paul donors (203-139) overall, so our support is strong there. The bubbles, remember, show total $ given, not number of people actually giving money.
On election day
We will win if......
-Paul wins in Vancouver, keeps it close in King County, and dominates in Spokane
Finally, Santorum will not be a major factor. Before his disaster on tuesday, he would not be a major player, but with his losses in AZ and MI, he may win some of the Huckabee counties, but nothing beyond that.
Get on the phones, it will be close folks! http://phone.ronpaul2012.com/v/login.php?return_url=%2Fv%2F
Thanks for reading