Virginia: A great place to get delegates or maybe not?

[ProBlue33]

Just read this.

Virginia has a proportional allocation with a twist. Should any candidate take 50% in a district, the candidate will win all votes in the district. In a display of complete ineptitude, Santorum and Gingrich failed to collect and turn in enough signatures on time and are not on the ballot. Romney is currently polling about 53% and Paul 23%, but Paul can only win delegates if he outright wins a district.

I hope we target Ron Paul friendly districts, it is possible to get our fair share, or lose big, which would be really pathetic with Rick and Newt not even on the ballot. This would give credence to the mantra to Ron Paul can't win. Virgina is a real test for Ron.

[thoughtomator]

yes, each congressional district has 3 delegates to the national convention of its own to whoever has a majority in that district

so every district we carry is 3 delegates, and there's a 16-delegate bonus for winning the state which one candidate or the other must necessarily win.

[Professor8000]

It's spelled Virginia... not virgina...

[joshnorris14]

Absolutely wrong.

IF a candidate gets 50% of the vote in Virginia, he gets all the delegates. Since there are only 2 candidates, someone will get more than 50%

Virginia IS winner take all.

[TheGrinch]

It's spelled Virginia... not virgina...
LOL, not sure if that will hurt or help with the female vote, "We love virgina!" :D

[tbone717]

VA Rules:

"33 district delegates are to be bound to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the 11 congressional districts: each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates and the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in that district will receive all 3 of that district's National Convention delegates.
13 at-large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 3 bonus delegates) are to be bound to presidential contenders based on the primary results statewide. Compute percentages to 3 decimal places, that is, 50.000%. The delegates are allocated to the presidential contenders as follows:
If a candidate receives 50.001% or more of the vote, that candidate is allocated all 13 at-large delegates.
If no candidate receives 50.001% or more of the vote, the 13 at-large delegates are allocated proportionally among those candidates receiving 15.000% or more of the vote. Rounding rules: Beginning with the candidate receiving the largest number of votes, round the fraction to the next whole number of delegates. Continue this process with the next highest vote getter and repeat until all the delegates are allocated.

[theeaglehaslanded]

Absolutely wrong.

IF a candidate gets 50% of the vote in Virginia, he gets all the delegates. Since there are only 2 candidates, someone will get more than 50%

Virginia IS winner take all.

Is it the same at the district level? You're definitely right about WTA for the at large delegates.

From http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/VA-R



-33 district delegates are to be bound to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the 11 congressional districts: each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates and the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in that district will receive all 3 of that district's National Convention delegates.
13 at-large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 3 bonus delegates) are to be bound to presidential contenders based on the primary results statewide. Compute percentages to 3 decimal places, that is, 50.000%. The delegates are allocated to the presidential contenders as follows:
If a candidate receives 50.001% or more of the vote, that candidate is allocated all 13 at-large delegates.

[francisco]

Absolutely wrong.

IF a candidate gets 50% of the vote in Virginia, he gets all the delegates. Since there are only 2 candidates, someone will get more than 50%

Virginia IS winner take all.

No, see above post from tbone and this additional independent source:


http://rpv.org/sites/default/files/VA%20Delegate%20Allocation%20Process_Approved7-16-11_0.pdf

[Paul4Prez]

If Romney's polling at only 53%, Ron Paul will likely win a few districts at least.

[Agorism]

These rules are so weird it kind of negates the rules that there can be no winner take all until March that the GOP set.

Yes, they might not be able to officially make it winner take all, but with these weird rules they can make it effectively winner take all.

[digitaldean]

Maybe seeing Mitt win both states will drive the Newt/Santorum people to vote our way. I can not see people who back Newt/Santorum thinking its a good idea to give Mitt more delegates.

[GraspingForPeace]

Maybe seeing Mitt win both states will drive the Newt/Santorum people to vote our way. I can not see people who back Newt/Santorum thinking its a good idea to give Mitt more delegates.

That's what I was thinking. Every anti-Romney vote is going to go to Paul in Virginia, no doubt. A large portion of the GOP wants to stop Romney, and they are panicking. They see Paul as unelectable (wrong) so they will gladly vote for a candidate that they don't think will win (because they are still hoping for Santorum or Gingrich). And I don't think that we can safely say that Romney is pulling 53% anymore, wasn't that poll down weeks ago?

[tbone717]

That's what I was thinking. Every anti-Romney vote is going to go to Paul in Virginia, no doubt. A large portion of the GOP wants to stop Romney, and they are panicking. They see Paul as unelectable (wrong) so they will gladly vote for a candidate that they don't think will win (because they are still hoping for Santorum or Gingrich). And I don't think that we can safely say that Romney is pulling 53% anymore, wasn't that poll down weeks ago?

Last poll was on the 20th and he was at 53%

[gerryb]

Virginia is kind of like a caucus state. We can win the delegates even without winning the straw vote on march 6th. http://ronpauldelegates.wordpress.com/2012/02/14/virginia-primary-and-delegate-selection/

It is winner-take-all per congressional district, since only 2 folks on the ballot.. so there are technically 12 different elections... 11 districts, 1 state-wide. All the straw poll does is bind them for the first ballot, they still get to choose RNC chair, committee's etc.

[floridasun1983]

Virginia will be the first true "Romney vs Paul" matchup. Unfortunately I think a lot of people here are going to be disappointed with the outcome. One thing is for sure, we'll get to see the results of the "anti-Romney" strategy.

[digitaldean]

If you look at the numbers for 2008:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=VA

Huckabee got 41% of the vote last time and this year those people will mostly go to Newt/Santorum I think but correct me if I am wrong. All we need is over 50.1% and I think we can do it.

[Vanilluxe]

If you look at the numbers for 2008:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=VA

Huckabee got 41% of the vote last time and this year those people will mostly go to Newt/Santorum I think but correct me if I am wrong. All we need is over 50.1% and I think we can do it.

Since Ron Paul and Rand Paul have apartment units in Northern Virginia/Washington D.C. Metro, wouldn't it be a good idea to campaign in Northern Virginia along with Rand?

[gerryb]

Since Ron Paul and Rand Paul have apartment units in Northern Virginia/Washington D.C. Metro, wouldn't it be a good idea to campaign in Northern Virginia along with Rand?

They had a rally here tonight, 2k were allowed in, another estimated 1.5k were turned away.

[thoughtomator]

next time you get turned away from a RP event, try the side door

[Paul4Prez]

Yes Virginia, there is a true conservative on the ballot, someone who can beat Obama, who has a sterling record of lifelong consistency and strong moral character. Vote for him! His name is Ron Paul.

[Aratus]

lets try to win counties and districts and delegates!

[fisharmor]

If you look at the numbers for 2008:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=VA

Huckabee got 41% of the vote last time and this year those people will mostly go to Newt/Santorum I think but correct me if I am wrong. All we need is over 50.1% and I think we can do it.

Um... look, people.
The highest population center is Northern Virginia.
It's one of the wealthiest areas in the entire country.
It got that way because of the military-industrial complex.
A Ron Paul administration is going to put a lot of NoVA residents out of work.
Without the BS contractor jobs that pay $150k a year to do nothing but leech resources, average salaries in the area go down, and then home values follow.
Put simply, an RP win means this place is going to turn into Detroit.

The next biggest population center is probably the tidewater area.
An area where the Navy has a really large footprint.

The in-between parts of the state are pretty fundamentalist boo-the-golden-rule type of territory.

I really hope Paul does well. There's always hope that Santorum & Newt supporters will vote for him, and also hope that disaffected democrats will come over (it's an open primary).
But emotionally I'm pretty prepared for him to get crushed like an insect underfoot.

[CaptUSA]

Maybe seeing Mitt win both states will drive the Newt/Santorum people to vote our way. I can not see people who back Newt/Santorum thinking its a good idea to give Mitt more delegates.I understand the logic, but this is not how most people vote. Most people do not vote strategically (As Santorum has just found out). Most people will take a look at the names on the ballot and decide who they like more. (Even more people will vote for which ever candidate they have a more favorable impression of. And since the media is really good at giving people impressions...)

Now, it could be that people are so unfavorable toward Romney that they'll cast a protest vote against him, but I wouldn't count on it. We have to spend our time driving up Paul's favorables.