RevPAC Exit Polling Data for Michigan and Arizona

[justatrey]

From their Facebook page:

http://a1.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/427457_282766521794797_164856460252471_687098_3971 25130_n.jpg

Current official results from Google:

Michigan (>99% of precincts reporting)
Mitt Romney 410,517 41.1%
Rick Santorum 378,124 37.9%
Ron Paul 115,956 11.6%
Newt Gingrich 65,093 6.5%
Other 29,152 2.9%

Arizona (100% of precincts reporting)
Mitt Romney 201,044 47.8%
Rick Santorum 108,899 25.9%
Newt Gingrich 68,975 16.4%
Ron Paul 35,594 8.5%
Other 6,521 1.5%

First thing I'm noticing:

Paul: Michigan Exit Poll: 19.4%
Paul: Michigan Results: 11.6% (-7.8% - That seems huge)

Santorum: Michigan Exit Poll: 27.5%
Santorum: Michigan Results: 37.9% (+10.4% - Also seems huge)

[ssjevot]

Why are they wasting money on exit polling? We can look at the data form the networks for free and it is more accurate.

[justatrey]

Why are they wasting money on exit polling? We can look at the data form the networks for free and it is more accurate.

Because there is currently an exit polling monopoly. Edison Research has been the only provider of exit poll information for all of the major news organizations (CBS, FOX, CNN, NBC, etc.)

[ssjevot]

Because there is currently an exit polling monopoly. Edison Research has been the only provider of exit poll information for all of the major news organizations (CBS, FOX, CNN, NBC, etc.)

So why are we wasting our money again? Let someone else start an exit polling competitor, we need to win a campaign.

[Vet_from_cali]

that Mitt is pwning everyone:mad:

[kathy88]

So why are we wasting our money again? Let someone else start an exit polling competitor, we need to win a campaign.So you donated a lot to revpac?

[justatrey]

I want to know what their sample size was.

Paul: Michigan Exit Poll: 19.4%
Paul: Michigan Results: 11.7% (-7.7% - That seems huge)

Santorum: Michigan Exit Poll: 27.5%
Santorum: Michigan Results: 37.8% (+10.3% - Also seems huge)

[justatrey]

So why are we wasting our money again? Let someone else start an exit polling competitor, we need to win a campaign.

You can't win a campaign if your votes aren't counted. And as I'm sure you've seen in other threads around here, we have every reason to be suspicious.

[CTRattlesnake]

Dont get the point of exit polls at all...especially from a PAC.

They should put that $ elsewhere

[SCOTUSman]

7-10+ points is a huge difference for exit polling, but there is no data provided.

[justatrey]

7-10+ points is a huge difference for exit polling, but there is no data provided.

Yeah, we really need to know what the sample size was to evaluate this.

[parocks]

Why are they wasting money on exit polling? We can look at the data form the networks for free and it is more accurate.

Righto.

Wasting money.

As if everything else was taken care of.

[bcreps85]

And if their methodology turns out to be sound, then is it still a waste of money? I'd say not...and rather suggest that the people doing statistical analysis of SC in another thread take look and see if anything looks odd.

[Maximus]

Until we see the sample size and where they polled, this is pretty useless info.

[Esoteric]

Good exit polling actually GETS INFORMATION. like asking "what is your primary news source", so you can correlate results and draw conclusions. Wouldn't it be interesting if Ron Paul won 50% of voters who identified their primary source of news as something other than a Mainstream News Channel or Talk Radio, and only 4% of voters who did?

[RDM]

If you would have listened to the RevPac Powercast with Primary coverage they divulged a lot of info about the exit polling and other boots on the ground reports. One guy doing exit polling said he was getting about 40-50% participation in the exit polling.

[bluesc]

Good exit polling actually GETS INFORMATION. like asking "what is your primary news source", so you can correlate results and draw conclusions. Wouldn't it be interesting if Ron Paul won 50% of voters who identified their primary source of news as something other than a Mainstream News Channel or Talk Radio, and only 4% of voters who did?

Isn't that what happened in Iowa?

I mean, not to that extent, but of the ~50% who watched Fox he was at ~10% and of the ~50% who didn't watch Fox he was much higher.

[angelatc]

So why are we wasting our money again? Let someone else start an exit polling competitor, we need to win a campaign.

"Our money?"

[anaconda]

So why are we wasting our money again? Let someone else start an exit polling competitor, we need to win a campaign.

I doubt that the internal exit polling costs very much at all. And if their is evidence for polling fraud or voter fraud it might help us in many ways.

[Philosophy_of_Politics]

From their Facebook page:

http://a1.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/427457_282766521794797_164856460252471_687098_3971 25130_n.jpg

Current official results from Google:

Michigan (88% of precincts reporting)
Mitt Romney 354,335 41%
Rick Santorum 326,302 37.8%
Ron Paul 101,122 11.7%
Newt Gingrich 56,847 6.6%
Other 25,403 2.9%

Arizona (62% of precincts reporting)
Mitt Romney 201,044 47.8%
Rick Santorum 108,899 25.9%
Newt Gingrich 68,975 16.4%
Ron Paul 35,594 8.5%
Other 6,521 1.5%

First thing I'm noticing:

Paul: Michigan Exit Poll: 19.4%
Paul: Michigan Results: 11.7% (-7.7% - That seems huge)

Santorum: Michigan Exit Poll: 27.5%
Santorum: Michigan Results: 37.8% (+10.3% - Also seems huge)

That really is a drastic change, which shouldn't be occurring. Well, with 12% left reporting in Michigan. It seems Romney, Paul, and Other have more voters than what basic math is implying @ 88% precincts reporting in.

[Michigan - Google Results]
||||||||||||||||||||||||||

864,009 Total Voters @ 88% of Precincts Reporting:

[MR] 864,009 - 41.0% (354,243.69) = 509,765.31 Voters Remaining
*recorded results shows Mitt Romney having more voters (354,335.69 > 354,243.69) than what basic math says. Even though it is a minimal increase.
[+92 Vote Increase]

[RS] 864,009 - 37.8% (326,595.402) = 537,413.598 Voters Remaining
*recorded results shows Rick Santorum having less voters (326,302 < 326,595.402) than what basic math says. Even though it is also a minimal decrease.
[-293.403 Vote Decrease]

[RP] 864,009 - 11.7% (101,089.053) = 762,919.947 Voters Remaining
*recorded results show Ron Paul having more voters (101,122 > 101,089.053) than what basic math says. Even though it is also a minimal increase.
[+32.947 Vote Increase]

[NG] 864,009 - 6.6% (57,024.594) = 806,984.406 Voters Remaining
*recorded results show Newt Gingrinch having less voters (56,847 < 57,024.594) than what basic math says. Even though it is also a minimal decrease.
[-177.594 Vote Decrease]

[O] 864,009 - 2.9% (25,056.261) = 838,952.739 Voters Remaining
*recorded results show 'Other' having more voters (25,403 > 25,056.261) than what basic math says. Even though it is also a minimal increase.
[+346.739 Vote Increase]


Added the 'red' numbers together, and I get a (864,009)

Ron Paul @ 19.4% (167,617.746/846,009).
Ron Paul loses 7.7% of 19.4% (66,528.693/167,617.746/846,009) in votes, in comparison to his exit polls.
*Total Voters (101,089.053)

Rick Santorum @ 27.5% (237,602.475/846,009).
Rick Santorum gains 10.3% totaling 37.8% (88,992.927/237,602.475/846,009) in votes, in comparison to his exit polls.
*Total Voters (326,595.402)

How does Ron Paul have 167,618(approx) voters in the exit polls. But manage to lose 66,529(approx) voters in between?
How does Rick Santorum gain 88,993(approx) voters in the results, while only having 237,602(approx) voters in his exit polls?

[RS] 88,992.927 -[RP] 66.528.693 = 22,464.234 Differential.

Now, look at 'Other' Voters @ 25,056.261 voters.

[O] 25,056.261 - [Diffential] 22,464.234 = 2,592.027 voters.

I find it very suspicious, that Ron Paul loses that many voters. While Rick Santorum simultaneously gains a larger pool of voters than what Ron Paul just lost, which then closely fits into the puzzle of the 'Other' Voting Block.

[Barrex]

This polling doesnt cost anything.
RevPac made small application for any supporter to use and report results. So it is all voluntary and FREE.

[kathy88]

This polling doesnt cost anything.
RevPac made small application for any supporter to use and report results. So it is all voluntary and FREE.

True. I was on the call for volunteer training, and although I DID fall asleep (LOL) it was voluntary.

[justatrey]

Updated for final numbers, didn't change much:

Michigan (>99% of precincts reporting)
Mitt Romney 410,517 41.1%
Rick Santorum 378,124 37.9%
Ron Paul 115,956 11.6%
Newt Gingrich 65,093 6.5%
Other 29,152 2.9%

Arizona (100% of precincts reporting)
Mitt Romney 201,044 47.8%
Rick Santorum 108,899 25.9%
Newt Gingrich 68,975 16.4%
Ron Paul 35,594 8.5%
Other 6,521 1.5%

Paul: Michigan Exit Poll: 19.4%
Paul: Michigan Results: 11.6% (-7.8% - Still seems huge)

Santorum: Michigan Exit Poll: 27.5%
Santorum: Michigan Results: 37.9% (+10.4% - Still seems huge)