PPP Michigan

[CTRattlesnake]

Santorum 38, Romney 37, Paul 14, Gingrich 9



Our Monday only numbers in Michigan: Santorum 39, Romney 34, Paul 15, Gingrich 10
Our Monday only numbers of people who didn't already vote in Michigan: Santorum 41, Romney 31, Paul 16, Gingrich 9

Off PPP's twitter, full results at 11.


Paul needs to hit 15% in order to get at large delegates.

[tsai3904]

Paul needs to hit 15% in order to get at large delegates.

There are only 2 at large delegates, which will most likely be split to Romney and Santorum.

[Paulite]

ill take it... real results tomorrow will look like this romney 33 santorum 29..ron paul 21.. gingrich 15 ...3% for miscellaneous.

[CTRattlesnake]

There are only 2 at large delegates, which will most likely be split to Romney and Santorum.

Woops, thought there were more...guess it comes down to the CD's if Paul is to get anything tomorrow.

[hb6102]

Giving Newt too much credit.

[malkusm]

Woops, thought there were more...guess it comes down to the CD's if Paul is to get anything tomorrow.

Best shot is Justin Amash's district in western Michigan (near the Grand Rapids area).

[CTRattlesnake]

ill take it... real results tomorrow will look like this romney 33 santorum 29..ron paul 21.. gingrich 15 ...3% for miscellaneous.

The top candidates always pull higher...no one wants to vote for a loser.


Santorum: 38
Romney: 35
Paul 18
Gingrich: 6
Other: 3

[SCOTUSman]

Interesting tidbit.


PublicPolicyPolling ‏ @ppppolls Close
Romney leads among Republicans in Michigan. It's Democrats putting Santorum over the top. We'll see if they really show up...

[RPit]

Well the Democratic Party or at least very influential Democratic organizations told their supporters in Michigan to vote for Santorum. This was on CNN Outfront... So I'm pretty certain Romney will lose Michigan.

[pauliticalfan]

Infuckingsane. Santorum was down big time after his horrendous debate. Now he's back ahead? This guy is a rubberband who just won't go away.

[ichirix]

Best shot is Justin Amash's district in western Michigan (near the Grand Rapids area).

Also look out for
CD2 (Ron has family here)
CD8 (Lansing/Michigan State University)
CD12 (Ann Arbor/University of Michigan + not much else)
CD13 and CD14 (Smaller voting blocks in Detroit)

[RPit]

Infuckingsane. Santorum was down big time after his horrendous debate. Now he's back ahead? This guy is a rubberband who just won't go away.

Like I said the Democratic organizations have told everyone to vote Santorum. So the Democrats will put him over the top just like PPP says.

[J_White]

wow ! Santorum still on top ? the whooping he got in the last debate was not enough to derail him ?
I hope the campaign is focusing on a few CDs. hope they get some delegates.

[sailingaway]

There is a real push to turn out Dems for Santorum, Michael moore went on TV and said 'a lot of his Dem friends' are voting for santorum and PPP says this:


Much has been made of Democratic efforts to turn out the vote for Santorum and we see evidence that's actually happening. Romney leads with actual Republican voters, 43-38. But Santorum's up 47-10 with Democratic voters, and even though they're only 8% of the likely electorate that's enough to put him over the top. The big question now is whether those folks will actually bother to show up and vote tomorrow.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/momentum-back-toward-santorum-in-mi.html

Santa NEVER polls well with Dems when it is against Obama, so this is the 'chaos' effect, not affinity. Hope they stay home, but I have seen more and more about it.

[PaulSoHard]

Detroit Dems I think have made their switch from voting for Paul earlier in February to voting for Santorum now. Guess they found Dr. Paul threatening Obama!

[JJ2]

Like someone said before, it's hard enough getting people to go vote for the candidate they support. Most of these Dems claiming that they're going to vote are not going to show up.

It should be very, very close.

[Tudo]

So they take Ron Pauls votes and give them to santorum/romney and just invent the rest. This is such b/s.

[InTradePro]

I wonder if the democrats voting for Santorum out of fun will be the end of Santorum. Santorum can claim a win but then Michael Moore and others will come out saying they voted for Santorum because he has no chance against Obama. Will be interesting how that plays out.

[Kregisen]

If we want a brokered convention I think we want Santorum to inch out a win in Michigan. Romney will win Arizona hands down. If he were to sweep the two states, could Santorum come back?

I think splitting the two states is the best here. It will prolong the process.

[JJ2]

The silver lining with Santorum winning MI is that if Romney's support really starts collapsing, maybe Paul could win VA!

[Feeding the Abscess]

If Ron can't get the nomination, I want Santorum to be the nominee and go down in flames. Hard.

And hopefully take the GOP with him.

[JJ2]

If Ron can't get the nomination, I want Santorum to be the nominee and go down in flames. Hard.

And hopefully take the GOP with him.

I would rather have the "establishment candidate" lose again. Or else in 2016 they'll be convincing everyone to nominate the moderate establishment choice again, since the "conservative" Santorum got destroyed.

[cmo4ever]

I think tomorrow Santorum winning MI , Romney winning AZ, and Paul picking up some delegates in MI is the best outcome. The muddier the waters the better chance we get to Tampa with nobody over 1144. If Romney wins both the momentum into ST is strong and if he sweeps there he gets the nomination. Best if he gets some, Santorum gets some, and Gingrich gets some. Split the vote up. We will know in Virginia if Paul would beat Romney 1v1. My gut says Paul loses Virginia which enforces that we need all 4 of them in this race as long as possible.

[mport1]

Let's go Santorum! Never thought I'd say that...

[D.A.S.]

I think tomorrow Santorum winning MI , Romney winning AZ, and Paul picking up some delegates in MI is the best outcome. The muddier the waters the better chance we get to Tampa with nobody over 1144. If Romney wins both the momentum into ST is strong and if he sweeps there he gets the nomination. Best if he gets some, Santorum gets some, and Gingrich gets some. Split the vote up. We will know in Virginia if Paul would beat Romney 1v1. My gut says Paul loses Virginia which enforces that we need all 4 of them in this race as long as possible.

You're right on the money! +rep

[cachemaster]

IMO Best possible outcome before super tuesday: Santorum wins MI, Romney wins AZ, and paul wins Washington.

[RileyE104]

IMO Best possible outcome before super tuesday: Santorum wins MI, Romney wins AZ, and paul wins Washington.

That would be ideal.. :toady:

[digitaldean]

IMO Best possible outcome before super tuesday: Santorum wins MI, Romney wins AZ, and paul wins Washington.

^^^ this. Since WA is a couple of days before Super Tuesday it will help out Paul in states like: Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota, Ohio, Vermont, or Virginia. As long as we get over 15% in Michigan today I will be cool with that.

[D.A.S.]

IMO Best possible outcome before super tuesday: Santorum wins MI, Romney wins AZ, and paul wins Washington.

This would be our wet dream. I'm not holding my breath about WA, though. Santorum has been running strong there.

[RPit]

This would be our wet dream. I'm not holding my breath about WA, though. Santorum has been running strong there.

We have plenty of support to win. Don't go by the polls, they can't judge WA. WE used to have a primary also but not this year. The polls reflect what would happen in a primary. Although santorum will be strong in the caucus also but I would consider us losing the caucus as an upset. We're definitely favorites to win here. Just need the turnout.

[speciallyblend]

If we want a brokered convention I think we want Santorum to inch out a win in Michigan. Romney will win Arizona hands down. If he were to sweep the two states, could Santorum come back?

I think splitting the two states is the best here. It will prolong the process.

have to agree here. What i see is by the time we get to tampa bay. romney,santorum and newt will be damaged goods. Ron Paul 2012. If by convention the gop does not nominate Ron Paul 2012? Then we deserve obama!

[D.A.S.]

We have plenty of support to win. Don't go by the polls, they can't judge WA. WE used to have a primary also but not this year. The polls reflect what would happen in a primary. Although santorum will be strong in the caucus also but I would consider us losing the caucus as an upset. We're definitely favorites to win here. Just need the turnout.

That's a big JUST -- and I agree that everything hinges on turnout in WA for us!

[alucard13mmfmj]

Poor Newt. It is going to be Romney for AZ, Santorum for MI, and Ron Paul for WA. Nothing for Newtie? =( I'm pretty sure he's gonna get last in those 3 states lol.

[cachemaster]

Hmmm anyone think newt will drop out before SuperT and endorse Frothy after finishing 4th in the next 3 contests?

[ichirix]

Poor Newt. It is going to be Romney for AZ, Santorum for MI, and Ron Paul for WA. Nothing for Newtie? =( I'm pretty sure he's gonna get last in those 3 states lol.

He'll probably win Georgia on Super Tuesday. At least that dilutes the votes even more.

[Barrex]

Any polls for Washington?
People are saying we will win but I am not that confident. People were saying we will win Iowa NH Maine etc.
Any facts or proof?

[Pauls' Revere]

There is a real push to turn out Dems for Santorum, Michael moore went on TV and said 'a lot of his Dem friends' are voting for santorum and PPP says this:



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/momentum-back-toward-santorum-in-mi.html

Santa NEVER polls well with Dems when it is against Obama, so this is the 'chaos' effect, not affinity. Hope they stay home, but I have seen more and more about it.

Found this link: interesting that McCain did not win a a single primary among registered republicans until super tuesday. More Democrats voted for McCain than Republicans did yet McCain still got the nod.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_primaries_in_the_United_States

[helmuth_hubener]

If Ron can't get the nomination, I want Santorum to be the nominee and go down in flames. Hard.

And hopefully take the GOP with him. Unfortunately or fortunately, there is no possible chain of events that ends in Santorum having a majority of delegates. Either Romney will have a majority or it will be a brokered convention.

We need it to be a brokered convention.

[Student Of Paulism]

Any polls for Washington?
People are saying we will win but I am not that confident. People were saying we will win Iowa NH Maine etc.
Any facts or proof?

Exactly. Last i seen he was, what, the endless 15% all the time? That is simply not gonna cut it. Santorum was up there like 37% in the last poll i seen from WA. I really don't know why people think he has a chance of winning there. It's the same ones who thought he would win NV, when it was obvious being a huge Mormon state who would win it.

[BuddyRey]

I want to cry right now!

We draw record-breaking crowds, advertize and campaign like mad, and we're being beaten in polls by Rick Santorum?!?!?! :(

[PolicyReader]

We have plenty of support to win. Don't go by the polls, they can't judge WA. WE used to have a primary also but not this year. The polls reflect what would happen in a primary. Although santorum will be strong in the caucus also but I would consider us losing the caucus as an upset. We're definitely favorites to win here. Just need the turnout.

This is why Phone From Home (http://phone.ronpaul2012.com/v/faq.php) is such an important tool, it is one of our best methods of Getting Out the Vote.

[digitaldean]

Exactly. Last i seen he was, what, the endless 15% all the time? That is simply not gonna cut it. Santorum was up there like 37% in the last poll i seen from WA. I really don't know why people think he has a chance of winning there. It's the same ones who thought he would win NV, when it was obvious being a huge Mormon state who would win it.

Because it is a caucus state and last time he got 22%.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=WA

[RonPaul101.com]

ill take it... real results tomorrow will look like this romney 33 santorum 29..ron paul 21.. gingrich 15 ...3% for miscellaneous.

Why would Gingrich get some of Santorum's vote? I think there is no way Santorum is down in the 20's and no way Gingrich hits 15. We'd be very lucky if Paul gets into the 20's.